Live Chat Today With Greg A. At 3 P.M. EST

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 2:13 am

Okay, I've just realized that without a pre-season baseball magazine to work on I have more time on my hands and I'm less knowledgeable than ever before. Therefore I need your help to fill my time and to inform me about the latest baseball happenings. With that in mind, let's have a Live Chat today!!

I'll get it started after hoops today between 2-3 ET and be around for much of the afternoon. Throw some baseball questions at me and I'll research the topics and give them my best shot. Right or wrong, at least you'll get a solid opinion out of me!!

Let's do it.

I'll try to answer other questions pertaining to the live drafts this March, but obviously I've been posting everything I know on the other threads so I don't think there's much I can add there. I feel very strongly that one way or another Tom and I will be hosting live drafts in the five various cities and now it's a matter of working out the final details of the events, the back-end provider and the rest. But we both feel very confident that this die-hard baseball community will remain intact for 2011 and beyond. In fact, I think 2011 will be our best year ever from a participation standpoint and a user-friendly game standpoint.

So let's get together and talk some baseball. Feel free to lob some softball questions early and I'll jump in when I can. I'm going to post some SP analysis on the Slow Draft thread now and hopefully we can talk about some of that shortly, too. Thanks all and join me for what should be a fun, fun Live Chat today.

Asumijet · Post by **Asumijet** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 3:06 am

Let's throw softballs from your own backyard. Prince Fielder- does he 1) have a contract year to remember; 2) put up an average Prince Fielder year; or 3) crumble under the pressure of the big $$$?

Sack · Post by **Sack** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 3:31 am

For me, one of the enjoyable things approaching any new NFBC/Baseball season is trying to uncover the new face in the game that will make an impact. Jason Heyward and Buster Posey come to mind from last season. Considering that between Corona's while "working" in Arizona you may have seen a fresh face or two this past off-season.......give us your top 5 impact youngsters for the 2011 NFBC season.

Part Two: Will you and Tom allow yourselves a few hours on Sunday afternoon to take a break and watch some football? CHIP would like to know if you've forgiven the Packers for selecting that Jordy Nelson a few Springs ago.......he remembers you not liking the pick at the time.

Sack & Chip

[ January 20, 2011, 09:32 AM: Message edited by: Sack ]

Cornhusker · Post by **Cornhusker** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 3:34 am

As of today what would your kds preference be and why?

Bob Enzyte · Post by **Bob Enzyte** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 3:43 am

Greg,

Another Brewer question. How much does their infield defense of Fielder, Weeks, Betancourt and McGahee hurt Grienke, Gallardo, Marcum, Wolf and Narveson? You can throw Braun in that group too.

Catch · Post by **Catch** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 3:58 am

Greg,

How about a relief pitcher analysis. Based on these slow drafts: Wilson, Bell, Rivera, Soria and Marmol are the only closers that have been selected within the 1st 6 rounds. Can you expand this to the end of round 10? Thanks.

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 4:04 am

Greg, I know you can't answer many questions. But is Ryan E. Houston part of your future picture?

What magazine will you be reading?

Winston's Empire · Post by **Winston's Empire** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 4:13 am

Top 10 NFBC Keepers for next 3 Years?

I am in 2 keepers leagues and this is ALWAYS a lively debate with us all.

Raskol · Post by **Raskol** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 4:47 am

Three quick ones, Greg, if you have time:

1. Who has the better jumper--you or Tom?

2. Was there any talk about playing the Fanball crew in a winner-take-all game for the rights to the website & infrastructure?

3. Who is the first round bust that you will avoid this year?

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 4:56 am

Originally posted by Raskol:

Three quick ones, Greg, if you have time:

1. Who has the better jumper--you or Tom?

I'll answer this one. Greg does easy. Now Greg never saw me play at my best but in my best days I was more of a slasher with a mid-range shot and a post game.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 6:39 am

Best bullpen in baseball? Why?

[ January 20, 2011, 12:40 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

Rainiers · Post by **Rainiers** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 7:07 am

More Brewer questions...

With Macha gone there is lots of speculation about lineup changes and impacts on steals. What are your thoughts?

Do you think Fielder gets traded? If so, when and to whom? Do the Brewers have someone to slide into 1B?

Brewers bullpen, who is the backup closer?

And the last Brewer question is...thirty years ago when my college buddies and I would load up an old station wagon and head to the Old County Stadium we could get free beers at all the breweries nearby by taking in their brewery tours... we'd have a pretty good free buzz on by the time we got to the game....can you still do that?

[ January 20, 2011, 01:08 PM: Message edited by: Rainiers ]

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 7:10 am

Okay, there are a lot of good questions to get me started here so I'll get right to these and try to keep up with further questions. I'll type as fast as I can, but bear (no pun intended) with me because I'm doing these on the fly and still answering calls and emails, etc.

Just to give you a snapshot of the setting so that you have a vision of your fine host, I'm in the snowy Iola office today surrounded by FatHeads of Greg Jennings and Prince Fielder with the NFL Network constantly on the tube. I've chosen to support the Packers all week long by wearing a different jersey to work each day, so after wearing a Bart Starr 1969 throwback jersey yesterday I'm honoring A.J. Hawk today. I think Clay Matthews will be the jersey of choice tomorrow and then of course the Aaron Rodgers home jersey on Sunday.

I actually have to fly to Las Vegas on Sunday and I made my plans three weeks ago knowing the NFC Championship Game was on that day but not expecting the Packers to be in that game. At that time they still had to beat the Bears just to get in the playoffs and I knew at best they were a No. 6 seed. I didn't think it was possible to win two road games if they even got past the Bears, so I scheduled a 12:30 flight. Now I've had to switch my flights to a later flight on Sunday and I'm hoping for a delay so that I can watch the whole game!!

Yikes!!

Okay, the refrigerator is stocked with Corona's and I'm in a good mood. Let's talk some baseball. I'll start with the Fielder question next.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 7:14 am

Originally posted by Catch:

Greg,

How about a relief pitcher analysis. Based on these slow drafts: Wilson, Bell, Rivera, Soria and Marmol are the only closers that have been selected within the 1st 6 rounds. Can you expand this to the end of round 10? Thanks. Actually I'll start with this one since I posted these results in the Slow Draft thread. I see that the Yankees didn't follow through on their 3-year, $35 million deal with Rafael Soriano, so maybe his draft spot is still relevant. Anyway, enjoy:

Okay, I've finally found a position with some uncertainty among early NFBC drafters. And not surprisingly it's the most unpredictable position in fantasy baseball: Closers.

A look at the early drafts is showing uncertainty from top to bottom. Four different releivers have been picked as the top closer in our five most recent Slow Drafts. That hasn't happened at any other position so far. And each of those top guys could go first or fourth or even seventh. It's crazy.

There is a pretty strong consensus among the Top 23 closers with only 27 different players being selected among those spots.

The highest a closer has been taken so far is 117th overall. Carlos Marmol went that high in one draft, while Heath Bell went 120th as the top closer and Brian Wilson went 122nd twice as the top closer. Neftali Feliz also went first among closers once, going 123rd overall. So it looks like owners are waiting until the seventh round to jump in on saves.

Okay, let's get to the players and the numbers. Here's where each closer has been drafted in the five recently started Slow Drafts:

Heath Bell: 1, 2, 6, 5, 7

Brian Wilson: 4, 3, 3, 1, 1

Carlos Marmol: 5, 1, 2, 2, 3

Joakim Soria: 2, 4, 7, 3, 6

Mariano Rivera: 3, 5, 5, 8, 2

Neftali Feliz: 6, 7, 1, 4, 5

Jonathan Papelbon: 7, 6, 4, 7, 8

Jonathan Broxton: 8, 10, 11, 9, 11

Andrew Bailey: 9, 9, 8, 11, 4

Francisco Rodriguez: 10, 15, 12, 10, 9

Jose Valverde: 11, 13, 16, 13, 18

Huston Street: 12, 11, 9, 16, 15

Jon Axford: 13, 8, 10, 6, 12

Rafael Soriano: 12, 17, 14, 13

Chris Perez: 14, 14, 13, 12, 10

Brad Lidge: 15, 19, 20, 17, 20

Joe Nathan: 16, 21, 19, 18, 14

J.J. Putz: 17, 18, 14, 15, 17

Drew Storen: 18, 17, 23, 19, 24

Francisco Cordero: 19, 27, 18, 20, 16

Ryan Franklin: 20, 22, 22, 22, 23

Brad Lyon: 21, 25, 26, 21, 19

Craig Kimbrel: 22, 16, 15, 21, 21

Matt Thornton: 23, 20, 21, 23, 26

Others going in the Top 25:

Joel Hanrahan: 24,24, 22

Kevin Gregg: 23, 25, 25

Leo Nunez: 24

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 7:22 am

Originally posted by Asumijet:

Let's throw softballs from your own backyard. Prince Fielder- does he 1) have a contract year to remember; 2) put up an average Prince Fielder year; or 3) crumble under the pressure of the big $$$? This one really isn't that hard to figure out. Fielder was extremely confident and relaxed heading into 2009 after he signed a two-year extension with the Brewers rather than fight them for every penny in arbitration. He's a young guy who wants to feel appreciated and that move by the Brewers genuinely put Fielder at ease. That being said, you could tell that last year he was pressing more and playing to prove he was worth the next big contract. He seemed to try to pull more balls and tried to hit every ball a country mile rather than go the opposite field with the pitch like he did in 2009.

What that means to me is that even though the Brewers rewarded him with a $5 million raise and a one-year deal worth $15.5 million, I believe the pressure of possibly being the top free agent next year is going to weigh heavily on Prince. He's a devoted family man who wants to hit the jackpot and be set for life and I think the pressure will be tough on him. Still, everything is in place for him to have fun during his last year in Milwaukee with guys he has been playing ball with for 8+ years and I think he has a good, good year.

What happened in 2010? Remember that early on he struggled against left-handers and last year he was atrocious against lefties. Look at his splits from 2009 and 2010:

2009 vs. LHP: .292-13-47

2009 vs. RHP: .303-33-94

2010 vs. LHP: .226-5-19

2010 vs. RHP: .280-27-64

He also struggled against lefties in 2008, hitting .239-10-35 that year while hitting .295-24-67 against RHPs. Again, I think he tried to pull every ball last year against lefties and instead needs to get the bat on the ball and take what they give him. He did have a career-high 114 walks last year and posted a solid .401 OBP while playing in 161 games, but the key will be improving greatly against LHPs. He should be fine, but as you can see here there are many factors that could prevent that from happening.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 7:32 am

Originally posted by Sack:

For me, one of the enjoyable things approaching any new NFBC/Baseball season is trying to uncover the new face in the game that will make an impact. Jason Heyward and Buster Posey come to mind from last season. Considering that between Corona's while "working" in Arizona you may have seen a fresh face or two this past off-season.......give us your top 5 impact youngsters for the 2011 NFBC season.

Part Two: Will you and Tom allow yourselves a few hours on Sunday afternoon to take a break and watch some football? CHIP would like to know if you've forgiven the Packers for selecting that Jordy Nelson a few Springs ago.......he remembers you not liking the pick at the time.

Sack & Chip Attending the AFL was very sweet this year and some day I'd like to spend a whole week out there. In just the brief time I was there, I saw Brandon Belt and Dustin Ackley enough to say those guys are the real deals. They both just really had great plate discipline, both had a real sense of what they were doing at the plate and both had really good baseball smarts on the basepaths and in the field. Ackley needs some defensive work at second, but with that bat he could be special. Belt is obviously being blocked by Aubrey Huff now, but he looks like a talent who the Giants could find a home for somehow later in the year.

Others who were special to me in the AFL included KC's Eric Hosmer, the Nationals' Bryce Harper, the Yankees' Manny Banuelos and now KC's Jeremy Jeffress. Others in the minors to watch who could really make impacts for fantasy players this year include KC's Mike Moustakas, Atlanta's Freddie Freeman, Tampa's Jeremy Hellickson, Philly's Domonic Brown, Tampa's Desmond Jennings, Atlanta's Craig Kimbrel and the Yankees' Jesus Montero.

I think there is a lot of very good talent in the minors and many of them could be very productive in 2011.

As for Jordy, Chip is correct in his memory of that day at the ESPN Zone (the same day SNAKE had me paged there), and my assessment is still correct. We didn't need another wideout in the first round of the 2008 draft, we needed defensive help. And he really hasn't been anything special for a first-round pick, but I'll admit he's had a great playoff run and there's no doubt that Saturday's performance was his coming out party. And he will fill in for Donald Driver whenever he retires, so I'm glad we have him. But I'll stand by my assessment that after reaching the NFC Championship Game the year before, a wideout wasn't the first thing we needed to get back to the title game. Guys like B.J. Raji and Clay Matthews is what got us back to the big game and those two were brilliant picks a year later.

Say hi to Chip for me. He must be close to driving soon like my oldest is.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 7:36 am

Originally posted by Cornhusker:

As of today what would your kds preference be and why? I'm not as smart as you guys so I'd probably keep mine 1-15 right now. As I looked at the first two rounds in detail yesterday, I liked the guys at the top of the draft and I really liked the 2-3 turn. I like Andrew McCutchen a lot and if I could start out with a top guy like Pujols or Cabrera and add McCutchen next I'd feel very, very good about my start. I do like the Top 20 talent, so maybe I'd go 1-6, 11-15 and then 7-10. But until I can figure it out otherwise, I'm liking the top spots for now.

Cooperstown · Post by **Cooperstown** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 7:40 am

Can someone with very little time over the course of the season win the NFBC Classic? It seems to me that with this level of competition, not having the time to review free agents or make lineup decisions, for many weeks during the season makes it impossible to win. What do you think Greg?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 7:46 am

Originally posted by Bob Enzyte:

Greg,

Another Brewer question. How much does their infield defense of Fielder, Weeks, Betancourt and McGahee hurt Grienke, Gallardo, Marcum, Wolf and Narveson? You can throw Braun in that group too. There's no question the defense has been hurt by the exchange of Alcides Escobar for Yuniesky Betancourt at shortstop. The rest of it remains the same and the Brewers do want Carlos Gomez to start in center field for defensive reasons despite a terrible OBP and hitting approach. So it's not terrible, but it's certainly not great.

That being said, Greinke wasn't helped much in KC last year either as he gave up 12 unearned runs. He's a strikeout pitcher who can help himself, even though his strikeouts dropped from 242 in 229 innings in 2009 to 181 in 220 in 2010. I expect Greinke to not only take care of business by himself but be aided by the run support the Brewers will provide.

Marcum also can strike out hitters as he finished with 165 Ks in 195 IP last year. The Blue Jays don't have the best defense in the world and the Brewers can give him similar run support in 2011.

What I really like on this staff is that with Greinke being the ace now, Gallardo has more favorable matchups as the No. 2 and I really think he's the guy who could benefit the most. You know, he was solid last year until he suffered the injury and he just wasn't the same once he came off the DL. He was 8-4 with a 2.58 ERA at the All-Star break and finished 3-0 with a 3.77 ERA in his last five starts. Now healthy, I think he's going too low in current drafts.

Wolf will probably be the one affected the most as he needs good defense. He's a groundball pitcher and it will hurt his numbers, but I love his finish last year (3-0, 1.47 ERA over his last five starts) and again he could be solid as a No. 4 starter.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 7:57 am

Originally posted by Walla Walla:

Greg, I know you can't answer many questions. But is Ryan E. Houston part of your future picture?

What magazine will you be reading? No, but not for the reasons you'd like to hear. Ryan and I got along well and nobody wanted to see this event succeed more than he did. Seriously. Everyone gave him a rough time early on and maybe deservedly so, but his passion was always to take these events and contests to the next level through the assets we had in place and with Tom and I running the show.

We'll never know if this team could have had a strong second season and really grown this to the way he envisioned. That's not possible now. But all I know is that growth in revenue and participants was 37% in baseball last year and 38% in football, so we did something right. We also did some things wrong and we were more than ready to correct them and have a great 2011 season.

Nobody knows for sure what the future is going to bring but I think all employees are trying to land on their own feet and stay in the industry. I think Liberty Media is doing all it can to help the employees stay employed and within this industry. For starters, it looks like Ray and Kyle and Kay are continuing their radio show with Sirius, which is great news. I've been very impressed with the way Liberty has dealt with the employees and how they are working with each of us now. That's why I'm so optimistic about the future for Tom, myself and our die-hard customers. This is a small piece of business that can succeed on a private level, but it's not going to be the franchise. And I think everyone understands that.

I wish I had my own magazine to read, but that's not going to happen this baseball season. We'll see if we can resurrect the old franchise down the road and still have a promotional vehicle for our events and a place to honor our customers. As for me, I'll probably buy all of the fantasy baseball mags I can find and learn from others this year. If I had written a magazine this year, I probably would have just given bad advice.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 8:02 am

Originally posted by WINSTON'S EMPIRE:

Top 10 NFBC Keepers for next 3 Years?

I am in 2 keepers leagues and this is ALWAYS a lively debate with us all. This is a hard one for me because I don't understand the salary structure or what happens after three years. I also don't know any of the salaries that go with each player, but if you're just talking a straight draft starting this year and keeping young stars for the next three years I'd likely start with guys who are 27 or younger and have already proven their talents:

Hanley Ramirez (27 years old)

Evan Longoria (25)

Ryan Braun (27)

Joey Votto (27)

David Wright (28)

Joe Mauer (27)

Matt Kemp (26)

Andrew McCutchen (24)

Tim Lincecum (26)

Miguel Cabrera (27)

I'd certainly take Albert Pujols for the next three years, so include him as well. Mike Stanton is 21 and would be among the young players I'd consider if you can keep them for the long-term. Guys like Jason Heyward should be included there as well. Strasburg and Bryce Harper are the real obvious ones if you can stash keepers away.

I hope that helps.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 8:08 am

Originally posted by Raskol:

Three quick ones, Greg, if you have time:

1. Who has the better jumper--you or Tom?

2. Was there any talk about playing the Fanball crew in a winner-take-all game for the rights to the website & infrastructure?

3. Who is the first round bust that you will avoid this year? 1. PLEEEEEEEEEEEEASE!! It's not even close!

2. No. That's proprietary to Liberty and separate from what we have here. That being said, in looking over the Fanball staff in St. Louis I think Tom and I can win any two-on-two game, so let's set the stakes with something else as the prize and GET IT ON!!

3. I wish I was smart enough to know this each year, but the Top 15 look good to me. Right now they include:

Albert Pujols

Miguel Cabrera

Troy Tulowitzki

Hanley Ramirez

Carlos Gonzalez

Carl Crawford

Evan Longoria

Ryan Braun

Joey Votto

Adrian Gonzalez

Josh Hamilton

Roy Halladay

Robinson Cano

David Wright

Alex Rodriguez

I agree with Ron that Cargo comes with the most risk since he's done it just once in his career. It's just so hard to imagine this guy staying that healthy and putting up those awesome numbers again. History has proven that a second year crash is coming. That being said, I'm buying Cargo at 6 or later. You have to with that 30-30 talent.

I guess Josh Hamilton is the obvious choice because of his past injury history. I'd probably stay away there this year with all of the talent behind him and if he's still there at the turn I'd take the chance then. But we all know his talents are scary good and he could return that first round value again.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 8:11 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

Best bullpen in baseball? Why? This is definitely not my expertise. I can't even guess on this one. All I know is that the Yankees have Mariano Rivera, they seem to have plenty of quality setup guys and Cashman was on the right track by getting Rafael Soriano to set up Rivera now and always be there if anything happens to Mo. That would have easily made them No. 1.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 8:19 am

Originally posted by Rainiers:

More Brewer questions...

With Macha gone there is lots of speculation about lineup changes and impacts on steals. What are your thoughts?

Do you think Fielder gets traded? If so, when and to whom? Do the Brewers have someone to slide into 1B?

Brewers bullpen, who is the backup closer?

And the last Brewer question is...thirty years ago when my college buddies and I would load up an old station wagon and head to the Old County Stadium we could get free beers at all the breweries nearby by taking in their brewery tours... we'd have a pretty good free buzz on by the time we got to the game....can you still do that? I think it was insane the way Macha handled this running game. He was the WORST possible manager for a team that had proven it could manufacture runs on the basepaths. They will be a much better team without him.

Roenicke has already said he's going to run and run often. He's a product of Mike Scioscia's philosophy that you pressure the defense at all times and I think this will translate into exciting baseball in Milwaukee. Look for Weeks to post 20+ steals this year if he can stay healthy and I think Cory Hart will return to 15+ SBs. They will be smart with Braun, but he had 14 SBs last year and should have 20+ again. I like this brand of baseball.

No way Fielder gets traded. They just gave up a lot of their prospects for Marcum and Greinke and they have no problem getting through the season with Fielder and getting two supplemental picks if he signs with another team. That seems to be their strategy and they feel that is better value than anyone else has offered so far. Mat Gamel would likely move to 1B if they had to make a move now.

Good question. They just lost Coffey and I thought Jeffress would be the next in line. I'm not sure who is after Axford at this point, which is why his fantasy value is rising.

Of course you can still take the Miller brewery tour and get free beers. What kind of a country would it be if that wasn't the case?

I was right there with you in the early 1980s. What a great, great time it was in the bleachers of County Stadium. $3 tickets and beers that were large and somewhat cheap compared to now.

Money · Post by **Money** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 8:21 am

Great to see the Baseball juices flowing. Are there any rules changes for the NFBC for the 2011 season?

Packers appear to have the upper hand this weekend. Should be a classic black and blue division war. Good Luck!!