NFBC Discussed In Fanball.com Column
Posted: Thu Jan 20, 2011 4:18 am
I wrote a column for Fanball.com yesterday using the data we've compiled through the five Slow Drafts. It was posted live today on Fanball.com:
http://ownersedge.fanball.com/article/2 ... The-Top-15
If you don't have access to Owner's Edge, here's the story. NFBC owners deserve this content since they produced the results:
It's interesting to note that most fantasy players use one set of data - last year's statistics - to form their Cheat Sheets for the upcoming season. Sure, people look at three-year averages, second-half splits, and projected playing time in their analysis, but for the most part, last year's stats determine the order of who goes in the first couple of rounds of any new baseball draft.
History has shown, however, that last year's data isn't always reliable. According to Ron Shandler in his latest Baseball Forecaster, since 2004 only 37 percent of all Top 15 players selected in the first round put up Top 15 statistics that year. The trend is so consistent that at no time in the last seven years has any season even yielded eight players who ranked in the Top 15 after being a consensus Top 15 pick that year.
So why are we using last year's stats to determine our first-round picks? Good question. Here's a look at the year-to-year Top 15 picks using Average Draft Position from MDC.com and the number of players who finished that year in the Top 15:
2004: 6 of 15 (40%)
2005: 7 of 15 (46.7%)
2006: 4 of 14 (28.6%)
2007: 5 of 15 (33.3%)
2008: 7 of 15 (46.7%)
2009: 5 of 15 (33.3%)
2010: 5 of 15 (33.3%)
Total: 39 of 105 (37.1%)
Last year, the Top 15 picks were:
1. Albert Pujols
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. Alex Rodriguez
4. Chase Utley
5. Ryan Braun
6. Mark Teixeira
7. Matt Kemp
8. Prince Fielder
9. Miguel Cabrera
10. Ryan Howard
11. Evan Longoria
12. Tim Lincecum
13. Joe Mauer
14. David Wright
15. Carl Crawford
Kemp won't be a first-round pick again in 2011.
While none of those players were complete busts, Kemp, Fielder, Mauer and several others didn't perform as expected. In fact, only Pujols, Crawford, Cabrera, Braun and Ramirez finished in the Top 15 among 2010 performances. Carlos Gonzalez, with an ADP of 94 in the NFBC last year, was the top performer of 2010.
So with all of this in mind, it's interesting to see that most fantasy players are back together with the same set of players who excelled in 2010 on top of their 2011 Cheat Sheets. The NFBC started five pay Slow Drafts in early January, and here were the first round trends:
** Only 18 different players were picked in the first round among the 15 different spots. There appears to be a strong consensus with the first 15 players based heavily on last year's stats.
** Every single NFBC draft so far has Albert Pujols at No. 1. I don't see that trend changing much.
** Miguel Cabrera was No. 2 in four of the five recently completed drafts. Troy Tulowitzki topped him once, and in that draft, Cabrera went fifth.
** Some of the bigger variations include Carlos Gonzalez going as high as third and as low as ninth; Adrian Gonzalez as high as eighth and as low as 15th; Josh Hamilton as high as 11th and as low as 19th; Roy Halladay as high as 8th and as low as 20th.
Here are the 18 different players selected in the first round and the spot they were drafted:
Albert Pujols: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1
Miguel Cabrera: 5, 2, 2, 2, 2
Troy Tulowitzki: 2, 5, 3, 5, 3
Hanley Ramirez: 4, 3, 4, 6, 4
Carlos Gonzalez: 3, 4, 9, 3, 6
Carl Crawford: 6, 8, 6, 4, 5
Joey Votto: 10, 6, 5, 7, 7
Ryan Braun: 9, 7, 11, 9, 10
Evan Longoria: 7, 11, 10, 11, 8
Adrian Gonzalez: 8, 10, 15, 10, 9
Robinson Cano: 13, 9, 7, 8, 13
David Wright: 14, 13, 14, 14, 12
Alex Rodriguez: 15, 12, 12, 12, 16
Josh Hamilton: 11, 19, 19, 13, 14
Roy Halladay: 12, 20, 8, 16, 15
Chase Utley: 16, 15, 13, 21, 17
Matt Holliday: 23, 20, 16, 15, 11
Mark Teixeira: 14 once
The second round seems to be almost as consistent as the first round, as owners seem to have locked in on a steady group of players. Twenty-two different players went in the second round, but that included three who mostly went in the first round: Alex Rodriguez (16th once), Josh Hamilton (11, 19, 19, 13, 14) and Roy Halladay (12, 20, 8, 16, 15).
So, what we have is 19 players mostly going in these 15 spots. And, actually, four of them only went once in the second round so we're down to 15 players for those 15 spots. The four one-timers included Adam Dunn (29th), Shin-Soo Choo (29th), Adam Wainwright (27th), and Victor Martinez (30th).
So let's look at the remaining 15 players and track where they are going:
Chase Utley: 16, 15, 13, 21, 17
Mark Teixeira: 17, 14, 17, 20, 18
Matt Holliday: 23, 16, 20, 15, 11
Ryan Howard: 20, 17, 24, 18, 27
Prince Fielder: 21, 21, 21, 17, 19
Kevin Youkilis: 19, 18, 34, 23, 21
Joe Mauer: 22, 26, 28, 19, 20
Matt Kemp: 26, 22, 23, 22, 22
Dustin Pedroia: 24, 24, 30, 25, 24
Ryan Zimmerman: 25, 23, 22, 24, 26
Tim Lincecum: 27, 29, 18, 27, 23
Jose Reyes: 18, 25, 27, 30, 25
Nelson Cruz: 29, 28, 16, 28, 28
Felix Hernandez: 28, 30, 25, 36, 29
Andrew McCutchen: 30, 32, 26, 26, 31
** Some of the biggest swings include: Jose Reyes as high as 18th and as low as 30th; Kevin Youkilis as high as 18th and as low as 34th; Tim Lincecum as high as 18th and as low as 29th; and Nelson Cruz as high as 16th and as low as 29th.
** I see Andrew McCutchen moving up higher as the offseason goes on, and he went 26th and 26th recently.
** You might also see four pitchers go in the first two rounds in some drafts as Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez, and Adam Wainwright are all capable of going in the Top 30, certainly the Top 35.
It's not easy to predict who will be this year's Grady Sizemore (DL) candidate and who will be this year's breakout Carlos Gonzalez, but history has shown that more than 60% of these players won't perform up to the standards we are expecting in 2011. Good luck finding the 37% who do live up to our expected standards.
(Greg Ambrosius is the director of Fanball's National Fantasy Baseball Championship. Go to nfbc.fanball.com for more details on their live drafts that award a $100,000 grand prize, along with all of their online leagues. Contact Greg at [email protected] for more details.)
[ January 20, 2011, 10:19 AM: Message edited by: Greg Ambrosius ]
http://ownersedge.fanball.com/article/2 ... The-Top-15
If you don't have access to Owner's Edge, here's the story. NFBC owners deserve this content since they produced the results:
It's interesting to note that most fantasy players use one set of data - last year's statistics - to form their Cheat Sheets for the upcoming season. Sure, people look at three-year averages, second-half splits, and projected playing time in their analysis, but for the most part, last year's stats determine the order of who goes in the first couple of rounds of any new baseball draft.
History has shown, however, that last year's data isn't always reliable. According to Ron Shandler in his latest Baseball Forecaster, since 2004 only 37 percent of all Top 15 players selected in the first round put up Top 15 statistics that year. The trend is so consistent that at no time in the last seven years has any season even yielded eight players who ranked in the Top 15 after being a consensus Top 15 pick that year.
So why are we using last year's stats to determine our first-round picks? Good question. Here's a look at the year-to-year Top 15 picks using Average Draft Position from MDC.com and the number of players who finished that year in the Top 15:
2004: 6 of 15 (40%)
2005: 7 of 15 (46.7%)
2006: 4 of 14 (28.6%)
2007: 5 of 15 (33.3%)
2008: 7 of 15 (46.7%)
2009: 5 of 15 (33.3%)
2010: 5 of 15 (33.3%)
Total: 39 of 105 (37.1%)
Last year, the Top 15 picks were:
1. Albert Pujols
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. Alex Rodriguez
4. Chase Utley
5. Ryan Braun
6. Mark Teixeira
7. Matt Kemp
8. Prince Fielder
9. Miguel Cabrera
10. Ryan Howard
11. Evan Longoria
12. Tim Lincecum
13. Joe Mauer
14. David Wright
15. Carl Crawford
Kemp won't be a first-round pick again in 2011.
While none of those players were complete busts, Kemp, Fielder, Mauer and several others didn't perform as expected. In fact, only Pujols, Crawford, Cabrera, Braun and Ramirez finished in the Top 15 among 2010 performances. Carlos Gonzalez, with an ADP of 94 in the NFBC last year, was the top performer of 2010.
So with all of this in mind, it's interesting to see that most fantasy players are back together with the same set of players who excelled in 2010 on top of their 2011 Cheat Sheets. The NFBC started five pay Slow Drafts in early January, and here were the first round trends:
** Only 18 different players were picked in the first round among the 15 different spots. There appears to be a strong consensus with the first 15 players based heavily on last year's stats.
** Every single NFBC draft so far has Albert Pujols at No. 1. I don't see that trend changing much.
** Miguel Cabrera was No. 2 in four of the five recently completed drafts. Troy Tulowitzki topped him once, and in that draft, Cabrera went fifth.
** Some of the bigger variations include Carlos Gonzalez going as high as third and as low as ninth; Adrian Gonzalez as high as eighth and as low as 15th; Josh Hamilton as high as 11th and as low as 19th; Roy Halladay as high as 8th and as low as 20th.
Here are the 18 different players selected in the first round and the spot they were drafted:
Albert Pujols: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1
Miguel Cabrera: 5, 2, 2, 2, 2
Troy Tulowitzki: 2, 5, 3, 5, 3
Hanley Ramirez: 4, 3, 4, 6, 4
Carlos Gonzalez: 3, 4, 9, 3, 6
Carl Crawford: 6, 8, 6, 4, 5
Joey Votto: 10, 6, 5, 7, 7
Ryan Braun: 9, 7, 11, 9, 10
Evan Longoria: 7, 11, 10, 11, 8
Adrian Gonzalez: 8, 10, 15, 10, 9
Robinson Cano: 13, 9, 7, 8, 13
David Wright: 14, 13, 14, 14, 12
Alex Rodriguez: 15, 12, 12, 12, 16
Josh Hamilton: 11, 19, 19, 13, 14
Roy Halladay: 12, 20, 8, 16, 15
Chase Utley: 16, 15, 13, 21, 17
Matt Holliday: 23, 20, 16, 15, 11
Mark Teixeira: 14 once
The second round seems to be almost as consistent as the first round, as owners seem to have locked in on a steady group of players. Twenty-two different players went in the second round, but that included three who mostly went in the first round: Alex Rodriguez (16th once), Josh Hamilton (11, 19, 19, 13, 14) and Roy Halladay (12, 20, 8, 16, 15).
So, what we have is 19 players mostly going in these 15 spots. And, actually, four of them only went once in the second round so we're down to 15 players for those 15 spots. The four one-timers included Adam Dunn (29th), Shin-Soo Choo (29th), Adam Wainwright (27th), and Victor Martinez (30th).
So let's look at the remaining 15 players and track where they are going:
Chase Utley: 16, 15, 13, 21, 17
Mark Teixeira: 17, 14, 17, 20, 18
Matt Holliday: 23, 16, 20, 15, 11
Ryan Howard: 20, 17, 24, 18, 27
Prince Fielder: 21, 21, 21, 17, 19
Kevin Youkilis: 19, 18, 34, 23, 21
Joe Mauer: 22, 26, 28, 19, 20
Matt Kemp: 26, 22, 23, 22, 22
Dustin Pedroia: 24, 24, 30, 25, 24
Ryan Zimmerman: 25, 23, 22, 24, 26
Tim Lincecum: 27, 29, 18, 27, 23
Jose Reyes: 18, 25, 27, 30, 25
Nelson Cruz: 29, 28, 16, 28, 28
Felix Hernandez: 28, 30, 25, 36, 29
Andrew McCutchen: 30, 32, 26, 26, 31
** Some of the biggest swings include: Jose Reyes as high as 18th and as low as 30th; Kevin Youkilis as high as 18th and as low as 34th; Tim Lincecum as high as 18th and as low as 29th; and Nelson Cruz as high as 16th and as low as 29th.
** I see Andrew McCutchen moving up higher as the offseason goes on, and he went 26th and 26th recently.
** You might also see four pitchers go in the first two rounds in some drafts as Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez, and Adam Wainwright are all capable of going in the Top 30, certainly the Top 35.
It's not easy to predict who will be this year's Grady Sizemore (DL) candidate and who will be this year's breakout Carlos Gonzalez, but history has shown that more than 60% of these players won't perform up to the standards we are expecting in 2011. Good luck finding the 37% who do live up to our expected standards.
(Greg Ambrosius is the director of Fanball's National Fantasy Baseball Championship. Go to nfbc.fanball.com for more details on their live drafts that award a $100,000 grand prize, along with all of their online leagues. Contact Greg at [email protected] for more details.)
[ January 20, 2011, 10:19 AM: Message edited by: Greg Ambrosius ]