'Chase'ing Batting Placement
Posted: Fri Feb 11, 2011 5:01 am
I'm doing all my studying online this year. Any stats, stories, any info at all comes from the keyboard. Strange for me, I am a pen and paper guy who has never taken a laptop to the draft and most likely, never will.
I also do not subscribe to any online service. No offense to those that run one or work for one, I am just inherently cheap and like devining stats on my own. For some reason though, I have access to ESPN Insider, I think I am a glitch in their system and if anything is free, it's worth it to me.
I was looking at a piece by Eric Karabell this morning. He was trying to express the merits of the San Diego Padres new lineup. He has Chase Headley ranked 14 for third baseman and thinks he'll improve. His logic is that Headley should be hitting third in the lineup this year, and to quote, "this durable player is likely to knock in 75-80 runs almost by default." Karabell also says that Bartlett and Orlando Hudson will be setting the table better than last years failure's.
I've seen articles like this before. Some writers believe that placement in the order changes statistics. It doesn't in this case. Last year, Headley hit 4th and 5th mostly. A spot behind San Diego's best hitter and on base guy, Adrian Gonzalez. He had 11 homers and 58 rbi. Although moving up to third in the lineup looks good on paper, and possibly more at bats, it doesn't necessarily mean advancment for a player or his stats.
Does anybody know who will be hitting third this year in front of Billy Butler for Kansas City?
Do we treat this hitter differently when we do know?
When opening day lineups are announced during spring training, I doubt there will be a run on that third hitter if available in faab, which most KC hitters will be
.
Chipper Jones is going twenty something in most early drafts. He is Atlanta's third hitter.
Savvy NFBC people know that the batting order doesn't make the player, the player makes the batting order.
NFBC players shouldn't feel bad about misjudging players that are not in the correct spot in the order. Last year, on opening day, Jose Bautista and Carlos Gonzalez were leading off for their teams. Not only did NFBC players not know what to expect of them, their own organizations were in the dark as well. I did enjoy seeing Jays management quotes after the season intimating that they knew the power explosion was coming. Sure, they did. By the way, Bautista only hit one home run out of the leadoff spot.
Batting placement should always be a factor in our research, never the focal point. Not many things remain the same in baseball, but one thing does, if you hit, you get moved up in the lineup, if you don't, you get moved down or out.
I am neither pro or con on Headley himself. He may hit, he may not. I don't know.
Karabel stating that he'll get 75-80 rbi almost by default is laughable. In this case, getting something for free, wasn't worth it.
The real trick is not to know where each batter will hit when starting the season. Like Headley hitting third to open the season.
No, the real trick is to know where they'll be hitting the second half of the season. Like Bautista, CarGo, or Aubrey Huff. Chase them, not Headley.
I also do not subscribe to any online service. No offense to those that run one or work for one, I am just inherently cheap and like devining stats on my own. For some reason though, I have access to ESPN Insider, I think I am a glitch in their system and if anything is free, it's worth it to me.
I was looking at a piece by Eric Karabell this morning. He was trying to express the merits of the San Diego Padres new lineup. He has Chase Headley ranked 14 for third baseman and thinks he'll improve. His logic is that Headley should be hitting third in the lineup this year, and to quote, "this durable player is likely to knock in 75-80 runs almost by default." Karabell also says that Bartlett and Orlando Hudson will be setting the table better than last years failure's.
I've seen articles like this before. Some writers believe that placement in the order changes statistics. It doesn't in this case. Last year, Headley hit 4th and 5th mostly. A spot behind San Diego's best hitter and on base guy, Adrian Gonzalez. He had 11 homers and 58 rbi. Although moving up to third in the lineup looks good on paper, and possibly more at bats, it doesn't necessarily mean advancment for a player or his stats.
Does anybody know who will be hitting third this year in front of Billy Butler for Kansas City?
Do we treat this hitter differently when we do know?
When opening day lineups are announced during spring training, I doubt there will be a run on that third hitter if available in faab, which most KC hitters will be
.Chipper Jones is going twenty something in most early drafts. He is Atlanta's third hitter.
Savvy NFBC people know that the batting order doesn't make the player, the player makes the batting order.
NFBC players shouldn't feel bad about misjudging players that are not in the correct spot in the order. Last year, on opening day, Jose Bautista and Carlos Gonzalez were leading off for their teams. Not only did NFBC players not know what to expect of them, their own organizations were in the dark as well. I did enjoy seeing Jays management quotes after the season intimating that they knew the power explosion was coming. Sure, they did. By the way, Bautista only hit one home run out of the leadoff spot.
Batting placement should always be a factor in our research, never the focal point. Not many things remain the same in baseball, but one thing does, if you hit, you get moved up in the lineup, if you don't, you get moved down or out.
I am neither pro or con on Headley himself. He may hit, he may not. I don't know.
Karabel stating that he'll get 75-80 rbi almost by default is laughable. In this case, getting something for free, wasn't worth it.
The real trick is not to know where each batter will hit when starting the season. Like Headley hitting third to open the season.
No, the real trick is to know where they'll be hitting the second half of the season. Like Bautista, CarGo, or Aubrey Huff. Chase them, not Headley.