Everyone happy with their pick?

RichV · Post by **RichV** » Sat Mar 12, 2005 2:54 pm

I hope Ken doesn't mind, but I'll throw one more tidbit out there from his research. Teams that placed "in the money"..top 3 in each league, were well scattered across the board.

Draft spot...Top3

1-5...........38%

6-10..........31%

11-15.........31%

That seems to tell me you can win this thing from anywhere, but it doesn't hurt to be picking in the top 1/3

RichV · Post by **RichV** » Sat Mar 12, 2005 2:56 pm

Plenty of theories..It'll be fun after a few years of data to see how these charts fill out.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Sat Mar 12, 2005 3:00 pm

Originally posted by RichV:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by JAR:

I don't think you have any better chance of winning a league by picking #1 than picking #15. one of the biggest BS statements of the year IMO [/QUOTE]There's no doubt you can win from any spot. But after the first year, it's clear the top 1/3 of the draft spots produced the most league champs.

Draft spot...# of league champs

1.............1

2.............0

3.............4

4.............1

5.............1

6.............1

7.............1

8.............0

9.............1

10............1

11............0

12............2

13,14,15......0

..And I must say I'm happy with the 3rd pick in NY league 2

[/QUOTE]Ran a regression on the entire standings (not just the winners): comfirms that ends were worst (1-2,14-15), early middle was best (3-7); similar to what the winners' stats show.

Greg hates stats like these, however, so I plan to help him out and win from the 13 hole in LV6.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Sat Mar 12, 2005 3:02 pm

GG,

Which slot(s) did you end up with?

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Sat Mar 12, 2005 3:04 pm

I cant believe 13 14 15 no titles. I have the 14th pick in the ultimate , its time to make history. eddiejag

RichV · Post by **RichV** » Sat Mar 12, 2005 3:08 pm

Like I said, only one year's worth. I'd bet over time, it comes damn close to a wash from any spot.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sat Mar 12, 2005 3:11 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

GG,

Which slot(s) did you end up with? a good one. i'm still debating if i should just tell everyone.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Sat Mar 12, 2005 3:29 pm

You can have a good draft from any position or a bad draft from any position.

You will see with further years data, that the draft position is not THE most important factor.

That being said, in any draft, I would like to be in the spot where the key player for the coming year happened to fall to me in the particular league I am drafting in. If all drafts were the same, I would tend to favor the middle positions, 7-9 as they can control any draft dynamic and have the shortest wait between picks.

Gecko, we really don't care if you tell us before the draft - the results are all that count. Congrats on football, but that is a much luckier proposition and I doubt you know squat about baseball. Still, there is luck.....

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sat Mar 12, 2005 3:38 pm

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

I doubt you know squat about baseball. Still, there is luck..... i've been brushing up on baseball recently. we'll just see how prepared i am...won't we. i always love a challenge. keeps the fire burning

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sat Mar 12, 2005 3:41 pm

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

we really don't care if you tell us before the draft ok...that makes it official. i was ready to spill the beans until i found out you didn't care. now i'll be silent. it's past my bedtime anyways.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Sat Mar 12, 2005 4:05 pm

[ March 12, 2005, 10:06 PM: Message edited by: UFS ]

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Sun Mar 13, 2005 1:21 am

Looks like it is as I thought...starting out a bit behind (14th pick). Still, my number 1 and number 2 I am not concerned about as (in my humble opinion) at least one or two people will make a "mistake" and I could end up with two first rounders. And sorry, I disagree with an earlier post that if you do not get a pitcher in the first two rounds you are messed up.

My concern in my third and fourth pick (Player 44 and 47 taken). I think those rounds are where the key runs on position will be, probably closers. After that, with so may variables and drafting strategies out there, I believe it will all even out.

Mentally (as opposed to strategically) the toughest thing will be to watch 26 players go between my picks. There will be many so many players I have my mind on that will be taken between my even and odd round picks that I plan on bringing my aspirin, blankey and bear to help me cope.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Mar 13, 2005 1:39 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Mentally (as opposed to strategically) the toughest thing will be to watch 26 players go between my picks. There will be many so many players I have my mind on that will be taken between my even and odd round picks that I plan on bringing my aspirin, blankey and bear to help me cope.

i've been through that as well (picking at the end of the 1st). i don't like it. makes it harder to "wait" on some of your players. good luck. if i'm sitting next to you, don't look at my cheatsheets.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Sun Mar 13, 2005 2:09 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Mentally (as opposed to strategically) the toughest thing will be to watch 26 players go between my picks. There will be many so many players I have my mind on that will be taken between my even and odd round picks that I plan on bringing my aspirin, blankey and bear to help me cope.

i've been through that as well (picking at the end of the 1st). i don't like it. makes it harder to "wait" on some of your players. good luck. if i'm sitting next to you, don't look at my cheatsheets. [/QUOTE]Wouldn't the same "wait" apply to those picking 1st or, more specifically, 2nd?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by RichV:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by JAR:

I don't think you have any better chance of winning a league by picking #1 than picking #15. one of the biggest BS statements of the year IMO [/QUOTE]There's no doubt you can win from any spot. But after the first year, it's clear the top 1/3 of the draft spots produced the most league champs.

Draft spot...# of league champs

1.............1

2.............0

3.............4

4.............1

5.............1

6.............1

7.............1

8.............0

9.............1

10............1

11............0

12............2

13,14,15......0

..And I must say I'm happy with the 3rd pick in NY league 2

[/QUOTE]Ran a regression on the entire standings (not just the winners): comfirms that ends were worst (1-2,14-15), early middle was best (3-7); similar to what the winners' stats show.

Greg hates stats like these, however, so I plan to help him out and win from the 13 hole in LV6. [/QUOTE]On the contrary, my friend. I LOVE these kinds of numbers. Good work Mr. Sack and congrats on the published article about this in WiseGuy Baseball! Honestly, in baseball I think it is easier to win from any position than it is in football, where the stud RBs are worth a lot more and your starting players are limited to 10 each week rather than 23. Anyone who drafted from the 13, 14 or 15 spot last year and who would have taken Beltre in the 13th round, Sheets in the 14th round, Travis Hafner in the 21st round and Chone Figgins in the 29th round would have won!!! So it can happen even if you don't get a stud in the first round.

That being said, I know what it's like to pick at the end of round 1 and wait a long time for those other picks to come back to you in rounds 3, 5, 7, etc. You MUST plan your draft out well in advance, and that goes for 1,2,3 as well as 13, 14 and 15. But it's a long draft (30 rounds) and a long season (26 weeks), so getting the perfect draft spot is just one ingredient in the equation.

Besides, blame Tom if you don't like your draft spot!

Plymouth · Post by **Plymouth** » Sun Mar 13, 2005 6:35 am

Tom, if I have the 15 pick, do I get 2 minutes to make picks 15 and 16 or do I get one minute for #15 and then anaother minute after that for # 16? Thanks.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Sun Mar 13, 2005 7:23 am

Originally posted by Plymouth:

Tom, if I have the 15 pick, do I get 2 minutes to make picks 15 and 16 or do I get one minute for #15 and then anaother minute after that for # 16? Thanks. Well, by rules, you'd actually have more than 2 minutes. On your first pick, after 60 seconds, if you don't make a selection they move to the next pick--which is still you. If you took the full 60 seconds on THAT pick w/o a selection, they'd go back to the previous pick--still you--and ask if you have a pick. If not, it goes to the next pick--yep, still you--and that owner is asked if they have a pick ready. So if you really wanted to be crafty (and annoying), you could probably coax about 2.5 or even 2.75 minutes for those two picks.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sun Mar 13, 2005 7:35 am

Yeah, I've been coaching some fball rookies and they ask me which draft spots create the most value, and I always say it doesn't matter because you know you're going to get a good player in the first round or two. It's more about who you get in round 20.

The sample size, of course, is a bit small to look at last year's draft data. I think we'll know more after this year. Better yet, maybe someone could pry the mass data from espn or yahoo. For all the useless articles they write about fball, they have tons of important info they're not sharing. I think it just doesn't even occur to them.

There is probably something to having poor drafts in the first few or last few rounds. That has nothing to do with the players you can get in those spots. It has more to do with underprepared drafters. Watch the drafts on espn.com. They always slow down at the ends as people have a hard time deciding on a second player right away.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sun Mar 13, 2005 7:37 am

Well, by rules, you'd actually have more than 2 minutes. On your first pick, after 60 seconds, if you don't make a selection they move to the next pick--which is still you. If you took the full 60 seconds on THAT pick w/o a selection, they'd go back to the previous pick--still you--and ask if you have a pick. If not, it goes to the next pick--yep, still you--and that owner is asked if they have a pick ready. So if you really wanted to be crafty (and annoying), you could probably coax about 2.5 or even 2.75 minutes for those two picks. I love this post.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Mar 13, 2005 7:47 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

Better yet, maybe someone could pry the mass data from espn or yahoo. For all the useless articles they write about fball, they have tons of important info they're not sharing. I think it just doesn't even occur to them.

muuuhahaha...if you are looking at espn or yahoo for any useful info, you are destined to lose. this is really very silly. heck, i can't believe people even do that these days

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Sun Mar 13, 2005 7:47 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote: Well, by rules, you'd actually have more than 2 minutes. On your first pick, after 60 seconds, if you don't make a selection they move to the next pick--which is still you. If you took the full 60 seconds on THAT pick w/o a selection, they'd go back to the previous pick--still you--and ask if you have a pick. If not, it goes to the next pick--yep, still you--and that owner is asked if they have a pick ready. So if you really wanted to be crafty (and annoying), you could probably coax about 2.5 or even 2.75 minutes for those two picks. I love this post. [/QUOTE]Be sure to tell the rookies you've been coaching about the King of Queens end-game trick.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Sun Mar 13, 2005 8:20 am

Originally posted by Plymouth:

Tom, if I have the 15 pick, do I get 2 minutes to make picks 15 and 16 or do I get one minute for #15 and then anaother minute after that for # 16? Thanks. 1 minute and 1 minute is correct. The answer of passing on your first pick to yourself is not entirely correct, so don't try to take three minutes for those two picks. No. 14 will sneak in before you. But you will certainly have the full 60 seconds for the first pick and 60 seconds for the second pick.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Sun Mar 13, 2005 10:56 am

Originally posted by King of Queens:

quote:Originally posted by Plymouth:

Tom, if I have the 15 pick, do I get 2 minutes to make picks 15 and 16 or do I get one minute for #15 and then anaother minute after that for # 16? Thanks. Well, by rules, you'd actually have more than 2 minutes. On your first pick, after 60 seconds, if you don't make a selection they move to the next pick--which is still you. If you took the full 60 seconds on THAT pick w/o a selection, they'd go back to the previous pick--still you--and ask if you have a pick. If not, it goes to the next pick--yep, still you--and that owner is asked if they have a pick ready. So if you really wanted to be crafty (and annoying), you could probably coax about 2.5 or even 2.75 minutes for those two picks. [/QUOTE]This is why we have 8 billion lawyers on the planet.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sun Mar 13, 2005 1:11 pm

quote:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Originally posted by bjoak:

Better yet, maybe someone could pry the mass data from espn or yahoo. For all the useless articles they write about fball, they have tons of important info they're not sharing. I think it just doesn't even occur to them.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

muuuhahaha...if you are looking at espn or yahoo for any useful info, you are destined to lose. this is really very silly. heck, i can't believe people even do that these days I don't see which part of my post led you to believe I am "looking for useful info" there. But as long as we're on the topic, espn has some valuable tools, though their articles are pretty worthless as far as fball goes. But since you don't know what they are and automatically discount them, I won't tell you. Some of their stuff is better hidden than it ought to be.

I read everything so I do look at the articles that are out there, but I don't think I've read anything fantasy specific this year that helped me. I get more use out of real statistical analysis. There is a need for the two to come together, I think. Fantasy specific stats, for example.

As far as the second part of your post goes, I think it may have had the desired effect of irritating me if it was coherently written in any way.

[ March 13, 2005, 07:19 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]