Live Chat With Todd Zola, Tuesday, Feb. 22nd At 7 PM ET

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Fri Feb 18, 2011 5:56 am

We're happy to announce that Todd Zola of Mastersball.com will join us for a Live Chat on Tuesday at 7 pm ET. Todd has participated in the NFBC almost every year since 2004, including the AL and NL Auction Leagues and the Main Event. He will give you his insights on players and teams and even throw out a few numbers for you to digest.

Todd has a tough act to follow after Shawn's Live Chat on Tuesday, but Gehrig can follow Ruth in the batting order. Feel free to post your questions within this thread and Todd will prepare his answers in advance and then answer the rest of the questions on the fly on Tuesday night. We'll keep this going on Tuesdays throughout the pre-season and have some fun with all of this.

Enjoy and thanks Todd for doing this again.

GYOZTES · Post by **GYOZTES** » Fri Feb 18, 2011 12:51 pm

Please share your opinions on the following players projected 2011:

1. Jose Bautista

2. Carlos Gonzalez

3. Curtis Granderson

4. Ian Kinsler

5. Jason Heyward

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Feb 19, 2011 1:41 pm

He's on the clock:

At the draft table your first 15 sp1 are gone and the first 5 sp2 are gone. You are looking to draft your 2nd pitcher. Which pitcher would you draft?

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Feb 19, 2011 2:15 pm

Since I have a big job fair to attend on Tuesday and won't have time that afternoon to get a head start, I'll knock off these and whatever else shows up so we can focus on the "live" question on Tuesday night. Though, I must say, following Shawn and the great news from Greg and Tom will be tough.

[ February 19, 2011, 08:16 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Feb 19, 2011 2:25 pm

Originally posted by ToddZ:

Since I have a big job fair to attend on Tuesday and won't have time that afternoon to get a head start, I'll knock off these and whatever else shows up so we can focus on the "live" question on Tuesday night. Though, I must say, following Shawn and the great news from Greg and Tom will be tough. You'll do fine....you want me to load a dozen question in to keep you busy?

LONG GONE · Post by **LONG GONE** » Sat Feb 19, 2011 2:32 pm

Based upon the information we have today.

Tell me your 3 favorite set up men that will be closing on June 1st.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Feb 19, 2011 2:46 pm

Originally posted by GYOZTES:

Please share your opinions on the following players projected 2011:

1. Jose Bautista

2. Carlos Gonzalez

3. Curtis Granderson

4. Ian Kinsler

5. Jason Heyward 1. Jose Bautista: Greg "won" our debate in November at the First Pitch Forum as he argued Bautista for under 35 homers. I'm sticking to the over. Not by much, but over. I know Greg has history on his side, but I don't think you can fluke your way into that type of performance, and I don't think there are 13 AL teams spending their winter trying to figure out how to pitch Jose Bautista. That said, he is going in rounds 2-4. My numbers have him slotted in the middle of round 4. But even if he lasts that long, I won't be taking him as he doesn't fit the profile of player I want as one of my top picks due to the batting average drain. Though I should point out Bautista had a low BABIP which dragged his average down, though it is likely that was somewhat artificial as some of those 54 homers would have been doubles and counted as balls in play.

2. Carlos Gonzalez: This is ironic because the other debate I took part in was arguing that Carlos Gonzalez was a first round player. And I lost that one to Ron Shandler. My argument was not that CarGo was a top-5 picks, but a late first rounder. I know the deal, his BABIP will regress, his BA will come down, etc. But remember where Grady Sizemore was going when he was though of as a .280-25/30-25/30 guy? His ADP was 5-7 or so. I suppose one could say "look what happened to Sizemore" as an argument against CarGo, but those numbers are a reasonable prediction for the Rockies OFer. Some will say he is to much of a risk to be a 1st rounder. Is Pujols safe with the contract? Miggy and the DUI? Braun and his skills trending down? Hanley andhis attitude? Tulo and his penchantfor missing games? Votto and his extremely high BABIP which he seems to get a pass on? Crawford and will he steal if he hits 3rd? AGonz and his shoulder?

The point is, everyone has warts. CarGo will regress, but he also has the ability to be the best player in fantasy. He's done it once already.

3. Curtis Granderson: Granderson is hitting more fly balls, which is good for power but not so good for his batting average as fly balls that don't leave the yard are usually caught. He's good for 25-35 HR, I'll take closer to 25 and 12-18 steals, I'll split the difference. But depending on some good or bad fortune, he could hit anywhere from .240-270, UNLESS he cuts down on the whiffs, but unfortunately he is trending, albeit slightly, in the wrong direction there.

4: Ian Kinsler: Yeah, he will likely get hurt and if you throw his at-bat-tempered projection into a little black box, his value comes out 4th or 5th round. But the thing many don't consider is you can replace him when he is out. Add in the stats of his replacement, especially if you planned in advance and had a decent backup, and the stats for the ROSTER SPOT are 2nd round quality. I'll take that in round 3 every time. There is talk of him leading off which should help his steals, I can see 20HR/25SB with 25/30 possible if he stays healthy. The average is a crapshoot, but with counting stats like that from my 2B, I will worry about my average later.

5: Jason Heyward: I am a sucker for plate discipline and while this might lead to the occasional Jeremy Hermida, it usually portends to success, and Heyward's patience is outstanding. I'm higher on him in keeper formats as too many in the NFBC tend towards the shiny new toy and in my not so humble opinion, draft the hype. I see .280-22-12 as a baseline, with the chance he is a perennial top 20 pick in the future.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Feb 19, 2011 2:52 pm

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

He's on the clock:

At the draft table your first 15 sp1 are gone and the first 5 sp2 are gone. You are looking to draft your 2nd pitcher. Which pitcher would you draft? With the disclaimer that MY first 20 pitchers could very well be different than the others at my draft table, I would be looking at someone like Max Scherzer, Shaun Marcum, Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, Roy Oswalt or Ted Lilly, with the hope I could get someone other than Lilly and pick him up as my SP3.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Feb 19, 2011 2:54 pm

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

You'll do fine....you want me to load a dozen question in to keep you busy? I'd rather you find me a job so I can get my fat ass back to Vegas for the AL and NL auctions

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sat Feb 19, 2011 2:58 pm

Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

You'll do fine....you want me to load a dozen question in to keep you busy? I'd rather you find me a job so I can get my fat ass back to Vegas for the AL and NL auctions [/QUOTE]if an auction newbie could only play in one (AL or NL), which league would you recommend and why?

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Feb 19, 2011 3:08 pm

Originally posted by LONG GONE:

Based upon the information we have today.

Tell me your 3 favorite set up men that will be closing on June 1st. I'll answer, but then I will answer "my way"...

Ryan Madson - don't trust Lidge to stay healthy

Brandon League - smoke usually equals fire, Aardsma will get hurt again or traded

Jordan Walden - you're baiting me to take a speculative shot, so here you go

While cherry-picking spec closers used to be the way to get some cheap saves, so many are doing it now that I'll draft my saves then try to handcuff my closer with his likely replacement, or I will just take the set up guys with better peripherals, since I want to use them occasionally if my starters have lousy matchups and not just sit in hopes they get saves. That is, I would rather have Soriano or Benoit rather than someone like Motte.

Though, speaking of Motte, if your starters are good, the combo of Franklin in the teens and Motte early in reserves is a great CL2.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Feb 19, 2011 3:16 pm

Originally posted by Gekko:

if an auction newbie could only play in one (AL or NL), which league would you recommend and why? I would play the league in which you were more familiar with the player pool.

If you are equally familiar with both, and enjoy watching games with your players in them, I would play the league you watch more frequently.

If you enjoy watching games but can't stomach seeing your guys play, then I would choose the league you w2atch less.

If you don't watch games, I would choose the NL because the 1st place take is more since there are 13 teams.

Honestly, there are no "strategic" differences between the two pools, at least not in my view. That said, based on the 2011 pool, if Shawn finds me a job and there is still a spot in the Vegas auctions, I am more likely to pay top dollar for a couple of NL players while letting them pass in the AL.

Ando · Post by **Ando** » Sat Feb 19, 2011 3:47 pm

Todd,

Thanks for your time in doing this; much appreciated. Let's talk about closers. Tough to have any confidence in any of these folks after the top 8-10. How would you recommmend navigating through an NFBC style draft in securing your closers this year?

Cornhusker · Post by **Cornhusker** » Sat Feb 19, 2011 3:55 pm

How much does gaining 3B elig. increase Youk's value? Where do you rank him amoung 3B's and is he worth an early 2nd round pick?

Cornhusker · Post by **Cornhusker** » Sat Feb 19, 2011 3:56 pm

1. At what point in a snake draft would you consider taking Morneau considering his health status?

2. Can you be successful punting a category in a mixed league auction?

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Feb 19, 2011 4:00 pm

Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

You'll do fine....you want me to load a dozen question in to keep you busy? I'd rather you find me a job so I can get my fat ass back to Vegas for the AL and NL auctions [/QUOTE]Sounds like a showdown...

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Feb 19, 2011 4:19 pm

I don't think I have done this but I don't think the bosses would mind now that they don't also work for a site that also has content.

I recently wrote a 2-part series on pitching

PART ONE

PART TWO

In it, I talk about my approach to closers a little.

Long story short is I want to draft my saves. I want two guys that I feel will get their team's first and last saves. Or if they are dealt, will still close. I break them into 3 tiers by peripherals, not expected saves. I assume every close to get 35-40 saves and I need 2+ closers in the NFBC, the "+" depends on how how many I actually have.

If I assign Tier I one point, Tier II two points and Tier III three points, my goal is to draft "4 points" of saves. That would be 2+2 or 1+3. I can alter that based on my starters, this is all in the essays linked above.

This is not at all set in stone, but off hand, my 3 tiers may be in no particular order within the tier

I Rivera, Soria, Wilson, Feliz

II Papelbon, Bell, Marmol, Putz,

III Valverde, Franklin, Storen, Axford

I know I am leaving guys like Nathan/Street/Broxton/Lidge/Bailey/K-Rod out. But these guys will all be drafted amongst the ones I list, giving me a chance to get the ones I am more comfortable will stay healthy and keep the job.

Bob Enzyte · Post by **Bob Enzyte** » Sat Feb 19, 2011 4:25 pm

Todd, this is great that you're doing this. Why are there 10 pitchers on a NL auction team and 9 on AL auction teams? Since these games were started to mirror regular major league teams (example two catchers) why are the rosters set at 23 players instead of 25. Seems to me that there should be 11 pitchers on every team's active roster.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Feb 19, 2011 4:31 pm

Originally posted by Cornhusker:

How much does gaining 3B elig. increase Youk's value? Where do you rank him amoung 3B's and is he worth an early 2nd round pick? Value is such a tricky word. In a pure value-in-a-vacuum, plug his projection into a little black box and get a static number sense, it doesn't change it at all.

But to borrow a term from KJ Duke, it can change his intrinsic value, that is how much he is worth to you in the manner you construct your team. In this case, I would just go into the year drafting him as if he were already 3B, value him accordingly and make your CI or UT also 3B eligible to get you by until Youkilis qualifies.

My bigger concern with Youkilis is he seems to be getting an injury pass, even though since 2006, he has played 147, 145, 145, 136 and 102 games. People are quick to hand wave these off as fluke injuries, but this is 5 years worth of missing between 15 and 60 games. Factor in moving to 3B and Jed Lowrie as a decent fill in so Youkilis can sit if he is nicked and I'm not sure his playing time warrants a second round pick. Give me Ryan Zimmerman instead.

[ February 19, 2011, 10:33 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Feb 19, 2011 4:40 pm

Originally posted by Cornhusker:

1. At what point in a snake draft would you consider taking Morneau considering his health status?

2. Can you be successful punting a category in a mixed league auction? 1. I'm not touching him and I mean at all. A couple of year's ago, I took Mauer in the 9th round, because I felt at that time, the risk balanced the reward, in large part because the reward was so high since Mauer was a catcher. He exploded that year and my gamble paid off so I an not averse to taking risks of this nature. But Morneau plays 1B, a position with ample inventory. Even though he was scorching before the concussion, we don't know how a full year at Target would impact his numbers. but most importantly, and this is a point I do not see made enough, he has a history of concussions going back to his hockey playing days. I don't care if he is raking in Fort Myers, I am fearful of another blow to the head and another lost season. Again, because he plays 1B and there is a lot of other talent there, I will let someone else take the chance.

2. Yes, you can win, but your margin of error is reduced and it helps if you pick either SB or saves as there is sufficient inventory to fill up a roster without buying any saves and buying minimal steals.

[ February 19, 2011, 10:43 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Feb 19, 2011 4:55 pm

Last one for now, I'll pop back tomorrow or Monday if there are any more, then we'll knock 'em all off Tuesday night.

Originally posted by Bob Enzyte:

Todd, this is great that you're doing this. Why are there 10 pitchers on a NL auction team and 9 on AL auction teams? Since these games were started to mirror regular major league teams (example two catchers) why are the rosters set at 23 players instead of 25. Seems to me that there should be 11 pitchers on every team's active roster. The 10 pitchers on an NL squad came about when the NL expanded to 16 teams. It had to do with keeping the penetration into the player's pool constant as well as teams carrying more pitchers (more on this in a minute).

I was not there, but I suspect the reason there are only 23 players on a fantasy roster is the Founding Fathers first played as a single league format and they wanted some un-drafted players to be available as free agents and not just the players recalled. Plus, you need a little buffer because MLB teams could have a different ratio of hitters to pitchers than a fantasy team, so not every fantasy roster might be "legal".

I'll credit my friend Joe Sheehan for first pointing this out, but the fantasy community, especially in the AL and NL only formats have failed to adapt to the changing MLB players pool.

Back when Doughboys was a kid, teams would carry 8, 9 or 10 pitchers. When we first started playing fantasy, most teams were 15/10. Now, almost every MLB squad has 13 hitters and 12 pitchers. At some points in the season, teams carry 13 pitchers. This has seriously skewed the inventory for those of us that play deep leagues.

One "fix" is eliminating an OF spot and using 2 UTs, one of which can be a pitcher, your choice.

[ February 19, 2011, 10:57 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sat Feb 19, 2011 5:04 pm

Todd,

Justin Morneau called, he said he doesn't want to touch you either....

When somebody exclaims, "Lord knows!"

Do you say, "Yes, yes I do".

On a light note, in English,what stats do you think are the most under and over rated?

Seriously, love the clever stuff.

[ February 19, 2011, 11:05 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Feb 19, 2011 5:20 pm

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Todd,

Justin Morneau called, he said he doesn't want to touch you either....

When somebody exclaims, "Lord knows!"

Do you say, "Yes, yes I do".

On a light note, in English,what stats do you think are the most under and over rated?

Seriously, love the clever stuff. 237475934

348276499045233234

0083563492344

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sat Feb 19, 2011 5:21 pm

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Sat Feb 19, 2011 5:49 pm

Todd,

How much stock do you put into BABIP? Assuming the average is .300, how do you explain the consistently low BABIP of a player like Carlos Quentin versus a high BABIP like Joey Votto? Is it a difference in fb%, simply a case of one guy being unlucky, other factors at play?

Also, what would you consider to be your strengths and weaknesses as you evaluate your results in the last 2 years of the main event?