Junk
Posted: Wed Mar 02, 2011 5:15 am
I'm at an age where 'getting lucky' means finding my car in the parking lot. Part of my research for this years draft is to comb over previous drafts and adps to see where I may have gotten lucky or if I was actually knowing what I was doing.
In looking at last years adp, not many folks had the third round nailed. Here are the third round adp'ers from last year:
31. Felix Hernandez
32. Brandon Phillips
33. Pablo Sandoval
34. Justin Morneau
35. Zack Greinke
36. CC Sabathia
37. Jayson Werth
38. Brian McCann
39. Jose Reyes
40. Jason Bay
41. Dan Haren
42. Derek Jeter
43. Robinson Cano
44. Justin Verlander
45. Ichiro Suzuki
The only home runs on this list were Hernandez and Cano. The rest either came close to value or were busts. There are busts in every round of every adp. In the second round last year were three guys with an adp of 22-24, Ellsbury, Reynolds, and Sizemore.
ADP are of value. It is a base, where we feel each player SHOULD go. But, it doesn't have to be followed. Especially, if believing a players skills is under appreciated by other drafters. 'Jumping a player' or overdrafting a player may lead to laughter or ridicule from fellow drafters. That laughter and ridicule only lasts a few minutes, if your player hits, you'll be the one laughing. And it'll last for the next six months.
For the numerish fellas out there...
Did you know that 42.7% of statistics are made up on the spot....Now, it's 42.8%....Now, its 42.9%....
Also, if you are drafting from the number one or number 15 spot, we must adhere to the 50-50-10-90 rule.
When it is our turn to pick and there are three players we'd really like to have and we pick two thinking the other player has a 50-50 chance of getting back to you. Knowing in the back of our mind that there is a 10-90% chance.
We all have our favorite players to watch, especially the ones we draft. I'll be watching a guy that I probably won't draft.
Milton Bradley.
Mom and Dad never gave this kid a chance, right? To grow up in a tough neighborhood and have the name 'Milton'? C'mon man! Give the kid a chance!
The kid probably never stopped being angry from age two. After being teased about the name, his friends start hearing how games are made by Milton Bradley. Tough road for a kid.
He's received millions of dollars for his blessed talent and is still angry. But, Adrian Beltre is Milton Bradley-Lite, when it comes to playing the baseball system.
After signing his three year, 30 million dollar contract and frustrating Cubs fans, a reporter asked Milton what he thinks about in the outfield. Bradley replied that he thought of going home. Most working guys think that way, and with 30 million guaranteed, so was Milton. Baseball is not a game to Bradley. It's just something he's good at. It's good to have folks pay millions of dollars for something we're good at. Heck, I'm probably the best Doritos eater on the planet, but nobody appreciates the talent.
No way should we feel sorry for Milton. His mom and dad pushed the boat out to sea, and son Milton has created his own stormy seas since.
What will be interesting is, what if Milty has a good year in Seattle this year?
You know the answer, right?
GM's come flocking, giving Milton more money, saying, he's changed.
And once again, Milton will only think about going home.
[ March 02, 2011, 11:17 AM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]
In looking at last years adp, not many folks had the third round nailed. Here are the third round adp'ers from last year:
31. Felix Hernandez
32. Brandon Phillips
33. Pablo Sandoval
34. Justin Morneau
35. Zack Greinke
36. CC Sabathia
37. Jayson Werth
38. Brian McCann
39. Jose Reyes
40. Jason Bay
41. Dan Haren
42. Derek Jeter
43. Robinson Cano
44. Justin Verlander
45. Ichiro Suzuki
The only home runs on this list were Hernandez and Cano. The rest either came close to value or were busts. There are busts in every round of every adp. In the second round last year were three guys with an adp of 22-24, Ellsbury, Reynolds, and Sizemore.
ADP are of value. It is a base, where we feel each player SHOULD go. But, it doesn't have to be followed. Especially, if believing a players skills is under appreciated by other drafters. 'Jumping a player' or overdrafting a player may lead to laughter or ridicule from fellow drafters. That laughter and ridicule only lasts a few minutes, if your player hits, you'll be the one laughing. And it'll last for the next six months.
For the numerish fellas out there...
Did you know that 42.7% of statistics are made up on the spot....Now, it's 42.8%....Now, its 42.9%....
Also, if you are drafting from the number one or number 15 spot, we must adhere to the 50-50-10-90 rule.
When it is our turn to pick and there are three players we'd really like to have and we pick two thinking the other player has a 50-50 chance of getting back to you. Knowing in the back of our mind that there is a 10-90% chance.
We all have our favorite players to watch, especially the ones we draft. I'll be watching a guy that I probably won't draft.
Milton Bradley.
Mom and Dad never gave this kid a chance, right? To grow up in a tough neighborhood and have the name 'Milton'? C'mon man! Give the kid a chance!
The kid probably never stopped being angry from age two. After being teased about the name, his friends start hearing how games are made by Milton Bradley. Tough road for a kid.
He's received millions of dollars for his blessed talent and is still angry. But, Adrian Beltre is Milton Bradley-Lite, when it comes to playing the baseball system.
After signing his three year, 30 million dollar contract and frustrating Cubs fans, a reporter asked Milton what he thinks about in the outfield. Bradley replied that he thought of going home. Most working guys think that way, and with 30 million guaranteed, so was Milton. Baseball is not a game to Bradley. It's just something he's good at. It's good to have folks pay millions of dollars for something we're good at. Heck, I'm probably the best Doritos eater on the planet, but nobody appreciates the talent.
No way should we feel sorry for Milton. His mom and dad pushed the boat out to sea, and son Milton has created his own stormy seas since.
What will be interesting is, what if Milty has a good year in Seattle this year?
You know the answer, right?
GM's come flocking, giving Milton more money, saying, he's changed.
And once again, Milton will only think about going home.
[ March 02, 2011, 11:17 AM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]