Overall Winner

mikenj46 · Post by **mikenj46** » Tue Mar 22, 2011 11:46 pm

Been doing satellite leagues the last few years and did the Online Championship last night. Question for some veteran players...

Is it possible to win the overall prize in this or the Main Event without drafting in a weak league where players fall farther than they should?

My partner and I are pleased with out team and think we'll be able to compete in our league, but it was a competitive draft. No major surprises. Seems like the guy who wins and finishes in the top 10% of every category had to get lucky in the draft.

Any thoughts?

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Wed Mar 23, 2011 1:33 am

This is brought up every year. And, it always seems like a worthwhile argument.

In reality, it isn't.

There have been times when two players from the same league have come down to the final week with a chance to win the overall. Even with nobody in their league close to the bottom.

I've seen some great teams on paper before the season, but they usually fall apart once the season starts because of injury or bad performance. The only draft I can really remember looking great on paper and following through the whole year was Glennerationx last year, with his start of Pujols and Lincecum.

Most winners have two or three players that, even they themselves, are surprised at the overperformance during the season.

The draft is just a base. It is why I don't believe in projections. Half your roster will be gone by the end of the season. How are projections made on players that are not even on our team yet?

But, this is Christmas time. We'll believe that these 30 players will lead us to the Grand Prize. At least until the first faab. Then, we'll become crows pecking at the new shiny things that come along, and those 30 players that were gold either remain, or are out of the closet, and branded fools gold.

It was brought up that somebody got Sabathia in the 5th, Morneau in the 7th, and Morales in the 9th and is a favorite to win. I feel sorry for anybody that believes that.

To me, they got a small bargain and two question marks. One, has already been told that April play is probably off the table. But, one player has the perception that he has an advantage.

At this time of year, its all perception.

After six months,it's all conception.

Sorry for the long winded answer. One thing leads to another for me sometimes.

mikenj46 · Post by **mikenj46** » Wed Mar 23, 2011 1:57 am

Don't be sorry about the length of reply...it gave me something to read at work!

It wasn't so much of a complaint as a general wondering. Believe me I'll be happy to compete and potentially win my league, which I think my team has a chance to do. (I don't necessarily feel that way in my sat. leagues lol)

Just reading over some articles and looking at standings both overall winners finished with 92% of the total points in the online championship. That just seems like a crazy total when considering the balance needed on the pitching end. I can see having a balanced offense like that, but to finish on average in the top 10% in Wins, K's, and Saves seems very difficult to do unless guys slip considerably.

Last night was a fun draft. Very balanced and competitive. My buddy and I had a good time and we enjoyed that there weren't crazy out of line picks that screwed up the draft. (Would have been nice if it was the guy who picked before us, but otherwise nice to avoid).

We have a pretty balanced team. I'll post it a little later and would love some feedback. Might not get to it until this afternoon.

Good luck to you.

Mike

whipsaw · Post by **whipsaw** » Wed Mar 23, 2011 2:55 am

Dan is exactly right, it's a combination of a strong draft (which doesn't necessarily mean players falling to you) along with exceptional in-season management.

In 2009 when Lindy won, his league had 4 teams in the top 40 overall (of 390 teams).

In short, it's about having players significantly overperform their ADP rather than getting a bunch of players way after their ADP.

Glenneration X · Post by **Glenneration X** » Wed Mar 23, 2011 3:26 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

The only draft I can really remember looking great on paper and following through the whole year was Glennerationx last year, with his start of Pujols and Lincecum.

Even with that start, if not for the overperformance of late round picks like Jaime Garcia, John Buck, Coco Crisp, Brett Myers, etc., and free agent pickups like Brandon Morrow, Jouhlys Chacin, Brett Cecil, Koji Uehara, Alex Gonzales, Neil Walker, etc., I would have likely finished middle of the pack at best.

There's a lot of components to doing well in these leagues beyond the draft including FAAB and weekly lineup decisions. My 1st weekend draft got some kudos as well. That team finished 300-something.

After you leave the draft table, there's still a long season ahead with a lot of work to do. The person who hits at all the different stages of the season is the one who'll end up winning it all.

mikenj46 · Post by **mikenj46** » Wed Mar 23, 2011 6:57 am

Since I started the thread today I thought I would at least post the team I was speaking of. Feel free to critique. Think it's a pretty balanced team. Average is a little low but won't kill me and I need League to keep the job all season. Otherwise I came out relatively pleased. Know we have to pick up a 2nd C after week 1. Looks like Montero won't make the team.

Online Championship Pick 10

C-McCann(4)

C-J Montero (26)

1- Huff (11)

2- K Johnson (10)

SS- Peralta (21)

3- Longoria (1)

MI- Figgins (15)

CI- Cuddyer (18)

OF - J Upton (3)

OF - BJ Upton (5)

OF Stanton (6)

OF D Young (9)

OF Gardner (12)

UT- Ortiz (17)

P- Halladay (2)

P- Oswalt (7)

P- Carpenter (8)

P- Wandy Rodriguez (13)

P- Volquez (19)

P- Jurrjens (22)

P- Bailey (14)

P- Nunez (16)

P - League (20)

BN E Aybar (27)

BN Fuentes (23)

BN C Zambrano (24)

BN Uehera (25)

BN Madson (28)

BN McClellan (29)

BN Nova (30)

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Wed Mar 23, 2011 7:08 am

Originally posted by Glenneration X:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

The only draft I can really remember looking great on paper and following through the whole year was Glennerationx last year, with his start of Pujols and Lincecum.

Even with that start, if not for the overperformance of late round picks like Jaime Garcia, John Buck, Coco Crisp, Brett Myers, etc., and free agent pickups like Brandon Morrow, Jouhlys Chacin, Brett Cecil, Koji Uehara, Alex Gonzales, Neil Walker, etc., I would have likely finished middle of the pack at best.

There's a lot of components to doing well in these leagues beyond the draft including FAAB and weekly lineup decisions. My 1st weekend draft got some kudos as well. That team finished 300-something.

After you leave the draft table, there's still a long season ahead with a lot of work to do. The person who hits at all the different stages of the season is the one who'll end up winning it all. [/QUOTE]wow good free agent work- see a compliment. I pulled exactly one guy off of waivers last year who helped me in the main. That is bad work including a shot at Latos.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Mar 23, 2011 7:20 am

Originally posted by mikenj46:

Been doing satellite leagues the last few years and did the Online Championship last night. Question for some veteran players...

Is it possible to win the overall prize in this or the Main Event without drafting in a weak league where players fall farther than they should?

My partner and I are pleased with out team and think we'll be able to compete in our league, but it was a competitive draft. No major surprises. Seems like the guy who wins and finishes in the top 10% of every category had to get lucky in the draft.

Any thoughts? I think most people thought that LV 5 was the toughest league last year from a name perspective and past accomplishments of those owners in that league. It was extremely deep with NFBC veterans and past champions and all Stephen Jupinka did in that one was post a record 143.5 points and win the $100,000 grand prize. You just never know.

mikenj46 · Post by **mikenj46** » Wed Mar 23, 2011 7:24 am

Believe me...I never meant to start an argument of any sorts. I really just wanted to know what more experienced players thought. I think it's a ridiculous accomplishment to get 92% of the total points no matter who you're competing against. To be in a tough league and do it is even more incredible.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Wed Mar 23, 2011 8:03 am

It's not impossible but rather improbable to draft an 80% category team. If you did then your projections are lying to you. The cats just don't mesh. W-K-SVs, HR/RBI - SB- AVG... If you draft strong in one you will be weak in the other. Your fellow drafters are very knowledgeable and will bleed the talent all day long. You can't stockpile everything at once. You really have to jockey all year - brake, clutch,shift, gas, again and again.

Dub · Post by **Dub** » Wed Mar 23, 2011 8:29 am

Originally posted by mikenj46:

Since I started the thread today I thought I would at least post the team I was speaking of. Feel free to critique. Think it's a pretty balanced team. Average is a little low but won't kill me and I need League to keep the job all season. Otherwise I came out relatively pleased. Know we have to pick up a 2nd C after week 1. Looks like Montero won't make the team.

Online Championship Pick 10

C-McCann(4)

C-J Montero (26)

1- Huff (11)

2- K Johnson (10)

SS- Peralta (21)

3- Longoria (1)

MI- Figgins (15)

CI- Cuddyer (18)

OF - J Upton (3)

OF - BJ Upton (5)

OF Stanton (6)

OF D Young (9)

OF Gardner (12)

UT- Ortiz (17)

P- Halladay (2)

P- Oswalt (7)

P- Carpenter (8)

P- Wandy Rodriguez (13)

P- Volquez (19)

P- Jurrjens (22)

P- Bailey (14)

P- Nunez (16)

P - League (20)

BN E Aybar (27)

BN Fuentes (23)

BN C Zambrano (24)

BN Uehera (25)

BN Madson (28)

BN McClellan (29)

BN Nova (30) I like this team- I would take it. I'm drafting from the 10 tomorrow in the OLC. I took Longo at 6 in a 15 team draft, so I hope he is waiting there for me at 10.

Love the pitching and balance in your offense. Getting Gardner at 12 must have been sweet.

With a 12 team league you should have no trouble replacing Jesus. There will be plenty of prime choice FAs available at most positions.

whipsaw · Post by **whipsaw** » Wed Mar 23, 2011 8:53 am

Originally posted by mikenj46:

Since I started the thread today I thought I would at least post the team I was speaking of. Feel free to critique. Think it's a pretty balanced team. Average is a little low but won't kill me and I need League to keep the job all season. Otherwise I came out relatively pleased. Know we have to pick up a 2nd C after week 1. Looks like Montero won't make the team.

Online Championship Pick 10

C-McCann(4)

C-J Montero (26)

1- Huff (11)

2- K Johnson (10)

SS- Peralta (21)

3- Longoria (1)

MI- Figgins (15)

CI- Cuddyer (18)

OF - J Upton (3)

OF - BJ Upton (5)

OF Stanton (6)

OF D Young (9)

OF Gardner (12)

UT- Ortiz (17)

P- Halladay (2)

P- Oswalt (7)

P- Carpenter (8)

P- Wandy Rodriguez (13)

P- Volquez (19)

P- Jurrjens (22)

P- Bailey (14)

P- Nunez (16)

P - League (20)

BN E Aybar (27)

BN Fuentes (23)

BN C Zambrano (24)

BN Uehera (25)

BN Madson (28)

BN McClellan (29)

BN Nova (30) Pretty solid team overall. I think you're generally understating your BA problems, and I don't think you have nearly as much SV problem as you do. The one general roster construction mistake you made, and I fall into the trap too, was taking too many outfielders early. You had 4 of 5 locked up by round 9 and all of them filled by round 12. That forced you to take substandard corners and middle infielders generally. Your team might have been better off by substituting a couple of those early OF picks to a first baseman and shortstop and taking some higher ceiling outfielders in the middle/late rounds. Given the strength of your SP, I don't think you needed to take three SP in the reserve rounds.

Dub · Post by **Dub** » Wed Mar 23, 2011 9:06 am

Originally posted by mikenj46:

I need League to keep the job all season. If you go 3 closers you can easily fall behind in ks and wins- Check out Shawn Child's blog on hitting targets- its very helpful.

http://www.wcofs.com/site/baseballmafia ... argets2011

There are targets there for a 12 team overall as well.

[ March 23, 2011, 03:14 PM: Message edited by: Dub ]

Glenneration X · Post by **Glenneration X** » Wed Mar 23, 2011 9:11 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Glenneration X:

[qb] wow good free agent work- see a compliment. I pulled exactly one guy off of waivers last year who helped me in the main. That is bad work including a shot at Latos. Thanks Kent, I did notice the compliment. You're a great guy.

Damn, another shot!

mikenj46 · Post by **mikenj46** » Wed Mar 23, 2011 10:11 am

You had 4 of 5 locked up by round 9 and all of them filled by round 12. That forced you to take substandard corners and middle infielders generally. Your team might have been better off by substituting a couple of those early OF picks to a first baseman and shortstop and taking some higher ceiling outfielders in the middle/late rounds. Given the strength of your SP, I don't think you needed to take three SP in the reserve rounds.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Way the draft played out we didn't feel like the value was there at MI. And once we took Halladay in the 2nd we missed out on the top tier 1B. Just happened that the value was in the OF. I agree we should have taken one more reserve bat...couldn't decide on our last pick and got stuck with Nova in the que.

Thanks for the feedback.