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Early returns seem to have Jose Bautista and Drew Stubbs as potential first rounders next year.



Who is drops out?



Josh Hamilton

Crawford / CarGo (pick 'em)

Hamilton was already out - wasn't he?

Crawford probably drops further down than Cargo in my mind. Playing at Coors plus 20+ steal potential. Plus, still need to see how Crawford rebounds from his horrific start. The change of scenery honeymoon is close to being over; time for him to begin producing.

If I was in a draft tomorrow, Drew Stubbs would probably not move an inch. The issue was always average and one month doesn't tell much about whether his already sub-par .270 is real.



Jose Bautista, on the other hand, is convincing me that stuck in the middle really wasn't a good place to be. I'm thinking early second if I drafted tomorrow. Then again, if Carl Crawford is going that late....

Originally posted by bjoak:

If I was in a draft tomorrow, Drew Stubbs would probably not move an inch. The issue was always average and one month doesn't tell much about whether his already sub-par .270 is real.



Jose Bautista, on the other hand, is convincing me that stuck in the middle really wasn't a good place to be. I'm thinking early second if I drafted tomorrow. Then again, if Carl Crawford is going that late.... Stubbs has been remarkably consistent over his 900 ML PA. .260 BA with a 320ish BABIP, a good BB rate, a bad K rate, and an ISO around .180.



If he's going to bat leadoff, the counting stats are going to be awesome. 110+ runs, 25 HRs, 35-40 steals. He'll go through bad stretches, but there's nothing to suggest he will be a .240 hitter. If anything, he's likely to go the other way as his BB rate continues to improve as it has this year.



I don't think that makes him a 1st round pick, but it makes him pretty valuable.

there's nothing to suggest he will be a .240 hitterTo me, that's exactly what a 31% K rate suggests. Guys like Howard and Dunn lift that up with ridiculous power, but there's a huge difference between power and ridiculous power. His wheels help him a bit, but I think he'll settle at .245. Let's revisit in September.

Matt Kemp legit 1st rounder If Dodgers can get a decent lead off hitter and if Sands can hit in 2 spot, legit 1st rounder and most likely top 10 pick

Marty

Originally posted by Hells Satans:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

If I was in a draft tomorrow, Drew Stubbs would probably not move an inch. The issue was always average and one month doesn't tell much about whether his already sub-par .270 is real.



Jose Bautista, on the other hand, is convincing me that stuck in the middle really wasn't a good place to be. I'm thinking early second if I drafted tomorrow. Then again, if Carl Crawford is going that late.... Stubbs has been remarkably consistent over his 900 ML PA. .260 BA with a 320ish BABIP, a good BB rate, a bad K rate, and an ISO around .180.



If he's going to bat leadoff, the counting stats are going to be awesome. 110+ runs, 25 HRs, 35-40 steals. He'll go through bad stretches, but there's nothing to suggest he will be a .240 hitter. If anything, he's likely to go the other way as his BB rate continues to improve as it has this year.



I don't think that makes him a 1st round pick, but it makes him pretty valuable. [/QUOTE]Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:there's nothing to suggest he will be a .240 hitterTo me, that's exactly what a 31% K rate suggests. Guys like Howard and Dunn lift that up with ridiculous power, but there's a huge difference between power and ridiculous power. His wheels help him a bit, but I think he'll settle at .245. Let's revisit in September. [/QUOTE]Is it classless to do a told you so five months later. Yep, I'm going to do it anyway. Also, Dan, I see that Bautista is stuck in the middle with you.

I don't agree, Brian. He exceeded the Steelers Wheel hit. Most were going 30-35 as the middle. He led baseball in home runs.

He surely hit for a higher average than most thought.



Bautista should be really interesting this coming year. His production dropped off noticeably after the All-Star break.

Might just be me, but I think he'll be like one of those bands that had a huge hit, then has an ok followup, then gets less and less relevant.

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

I don't agree, Brian. He exceeded the Steelers Wheel hit. Most were going 30-35 as the middle. He led baseball in home runs.

He surely hit for a higher average than most thought.



Bautista should be really interesting this coming year. His production dropped off noticeably after the All-Star break.

Might just be me, but I think he'll be like one of those bands that had a huge hit, then has an ok followup, then gets less and less relevant. Shouldn't you guys be analzying football players in October?

Makes no sense, KJ.

They'll just be hurt within a couple of weeks.

Fantasy Football is for the weak KJ.

All luck, no skill



[ October 01, 2011, 05:45 PM: Message edited by: NorCalAtlFan ]

Originally posted by NorCalAtlFan:

Fantasy Football is for the weak KJ.

All luck, no skill

Originally posted by MGBMARTY:

Matt Kemp legit 1st rounder If Dodgers can get a decent lead off hitter and if Sands can hit in 2 spot, legit 1st rounder and most likely top 10 pick

Marty I have the top 3 picks being something like, Kemp, Braun, Ellsbury

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

I don't agree, Brian. He exceeded the Steelers Wheel hit. Most were going 30-35 as the middle. He led baseball in home runs.

He surely hit for a higher average than most thought.



Bautista should be really interesting this coming year. His production dropped off noticeably after the All-Star break.

Might just be me, but I think he'll be like one of those bands that had a huge hit, then has an ok followup, then gets less and less relevant. Bautista definitely slowed down in the 2nd half. But had a obp of at least .420 in every month but one and that one month he was still over .400. Walked more than he struck out in the 2nd half too. Also, seemed like he had some nagging minor injuries in the 2nd half and wonder if any of them lingered. Ankle, then hit in the head, neck, and then knee the last week or so of the season... Those may be some thoughts going through one owner's mind in the premature draftulation league, no?

Here is the first round of the first NFBC draft of the season-



1. Matt Kemp

2. Troy Tulowitzki

3. Jacoby Ellsbury

4. Albert Pujols

5. Adrian Gonzalez

6. Ryan Braun

7. Curtis Granderson

8. Miguel Cabrera

9. Justin Upton

10. Jose Bautista

11. Prince Fielder

12. Joey Votto

13. Robinson Cano

14. Evan Longoria

15. Clayton Kershaw



Who's smart, who's dumb?

Let us have it....

Miguel Cabrera seems to be a great pick at 8 and it is nice to see a new pitcher picked first.

Pujols is a surprise to me at #4. I can't imagine him signing with a team that would not be equivalent or better to his numbers than st. louis. It will be interesting to see how Ellsbury's huge power numbers and the expectation of a repeat effect drafts. I'll take Pujols every time over Ellsbury, but a repeat of his 2011 numbers warrants a #3 overall selection.



Mark

the one thing I notice is that I had 3 of the 15 on my live oc team and mis managed the **** out of it.for now on I draft and someone else manages and plays the waiver wire for me.

I dont see a bad pick there at all,cant wait to see rounds 2 and 3 .wondering where howard will go

Here are the first two rounds of the first NFBC draft for 2012.



Round 1



1. Matt Kemp

2. Troy Tulowitzki

3. Jacoby Ellsbury

4 Albert Pujols

5. Adrian Gonzalez

6. Ryan Braun

7. Curtis Granderson

8. Miguel Cabrera

9. Justin Upton

10. Jose Bautista

11. Prince Fielder

12. Joey Votto

13. Robinson Cano

14. Evan Longoria

15. Clayton Kershaw



Round 2



1. Dustin Pedroia

2. Roy Halladay

3. Hanley Ramirez

4. Carlos Gonzalez

5. Andrew McCutchen

6. David Wright

7. Justin Verlander

8. Jose Reyes

9. Mark Teixeira

10. Ian Kinsler

11. Josh Hamilton

12. Tim Lincecum

13. Ryan Howard

14. Mike Stanton

15. Hunter Pence



So, whaddya think?

Pretty strong. Love the Cabrera/Reyes combo. Pence a bit high?



I wonder if ARod will crack the top 30 after we start hearing Spring Training reports that he is...say it with me, now,..."in the best shape of his career!"

Ahhh, the Pujols-Lincecum combo. Brings back fond memories.

.



Round 1



1. Matt Kemp

2. Troy Tulowitzki

3. Jacoby Ellsbury

4 Albert Pujols

5. Adrian Gonzalez

6. Ryan Braun

7. Curtis Granderson

8. Miguel Cabrera

9. Justin Upton

10. Jose Bautista

11. Prince Fielder

12. Joey Votto

13. Robinson Cano

14. Evan Longoria

15. Clayton Kershaw



Round 2



1. Dustin Pedroia

2. Roy Halladay

3. Hanley Ramirez

4. Carlos Gonzalez

5. Andrew McCutchen

6. David Wright

7. Justin Verlander

8. Jose Reyes

9. Mark Teixeira

10. Ian Kinsler

11. Josh Hamilton

12. Tim Lincecum

13. Ryan Howard

14. Mike Stanton

15. Hunter Pence



Round Three



1. Cliff Lee

2. Adrian Beltre

3. Carl Crawford

4. BJ Upton

5. Victor Martinez

6. Matt Holliday

7. Dan Uggla

8. Eric Hosmer

9. Nelson Cruz

10. Carlos Santana

11. Buster Posey

12. CC Sabathia

13. Felix Hernandez

14. Alex Gordon

15. Mike Napoli



Thoughts?

Braun's too low.