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The thread about Hosmer makes me think back to a joke I heard in the 60's.

It was the time when bobby-soxers were keen. When Brylcreme was a top seller.....

Jimmy came over to Betty Sue's house for a date. He was greeted at the door by her father.

"Where do you intend on taking Betty Sue tonight?

"I dunno. I was thinkin' maybe a movie and a malted"

"Really? I thought you'd finally want to take her out for a screw. It's all she talks about. She can screw all night long if you have the stamina. There is nothing she likes to do more in this world than screw. Take my advice, take her out tonight to screw"

"Wow! I'm surprised you're telling me that Mr. Anderson."

"Well son, you've been out on a couple of dates to the movies with her and I thought it was time you guys do what she likes to do."

"Well, you don't have to twist my arm Mr. Anderson, I'm ready!



Betty Sue comes down the stairs in her poodle skirt and signals Jimmy that she's ready to go.

Her dad says," Honey, I've extended curfew from 9 pm to 10 pm tonight".

He winks at Jimmy and wishes them a good night.

Less than 20 minutes later, the front door flies open, "DAD, ITS THE TWIST, IT'S CALLED THE TWIST!!!"



First timers with faab are a lot like Jimmy. The hype and anticipation of the spoils is almost too much, and most times, like Jimmy, the faab'ers will end up with blueballs.



The money will be gone and the expectations of a guy like Hosmer are great. But, there remains a more likely chance that Hosmer does not rock the baseball world and is mere mortal. Just ask Brandon Belt.



On the other side of the coin are the hypsters themselves. Do they get an advantage by hyping a guy like Hosmer?

I don't think so.

If anything said on the message boards in the way of hype influences decisions, then that player still has a way to go as a fantasy manager. In effect, the hypsters are taking more money away from teams that they should not have to worry about. The thinking is that they'll have more, but of course, so will their chief adversaries.

This isn't to say that more experienced owners won't put a large bid on Hosmer. Need overrules money. If Hosmer replaces David Freese in a lineup as a corner with Inge serving in that role now, and the best corner in faab is Casey Kotchman, then yes, the need is there.

Or, it could be desperation time. Your roster has changed. The players that were loved a mere month ago are now hated and a change is necessary. Hosmer could be the first step in re-tooling the team.

But, if looking forward to something revolutionary because of what others have maintained and said.....

You may end up like Jimmy.

well said!

Interesting observations Dan (and a funny joke ).



However I think there's a dynamic that you missed that does effect the more experienced player. I agree that the more experienced player likely won't be swayed into thinking the hyped player is more valuable just because of message board rhetoric. However, the more experienced player is aware that less experienced players who visit the boards may be swayed into upping their bids. Therefore, if the more experienced player has determined that the hyped player can provide enough of an impact to his team, he might figure that he has to raise his bid as well to keep up with those less experienced players that were swayed.



I experienced that myself during the week-long hyping of EY Jr. last year when I was desperate for steals & a replacement for an injured Brian Roberts. It was an uncomfortable week. Funny thing is I raised my bid, but still didn't get him. Turned out to be a lucky break as he got hurt shortly afterwards, but if he didn't he was just the impact player in steals that I needed.

Interesting.

I've never thought of my bids in that way

Until near the end of the year, I don't follow what others need or have bid on players or even the experience of each player..

In a case like Hosmer, there will be a fixed amount in my mind of what he is worth, then, the needs or motive to make the bid for that team adds or subtracts from that figure.

Late in the year is a different animal. The cards are out on the table and we're looking to squeeze a few points more with our pickups.



[ May 06, 2011, 06:54 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]