NFBC Message Boards

I get a kick out of yahoo kids calling or writing to fantasy 'experts' asking if they should make a trade or who to start in a coming week.

Nobody knows their team or league better than they do, yet they ask an outsider for an opinion.

It's a little like calling Obama to ask about a local city council problem.



Fantasy baseball is like golf. There are no experts. Even the best will tell you that there is a part of their game that they're not happy about.



Using golf may be a bad analogy.

There are some yahoo kids playing fantasy baseball like a NFBC player. There are no pro golfers in beer leagues.

There are no fantasy experts. They don't exist.

Let's put it this way-

If you were a scratch golfer and were to play Tiger Woods the next day, would you bet him $50?

Heck no.

You would not even bring up a bet or ask to be given some strokes.

At the same time, we would be willing to put up $1400 to play willingly against Ron Shandler and his staff.

And I use Ron Shandlers name and pick on his book only because the back of his book says it is written by 'REAL experts in Fantasy play'.



Some posters query as to why a pitcher was used in 50% of leagues AFTER that pitcher gets blown up.

Some times we pick our pitchers as if we're voting for President of the United States. That is, we're picking the lesser of two evils.

The poster tries to come off as smarter than the rest, but he knows he has made a similar choice and was wrong in the past.



Last year, one pitcher gave up the most hits, the most home runs, and the most earned runs.

Today, that pitcher is one of the most coveted pitchers in baseball. In fact, he currently has thrown 11 straight games of seven innings or more.

James Shields.

In hindsight, we can say that his BABIP was elevated and that last year was an anomaly. But it happened, and not many were expecting the year that he is having this year.

I say this to give the 'REAL experts' their due. They forecasted that Shields could be the draft day bargain of the year.



At the same time, I know an NFBC guy who trumpeted the merits of Asdubal Cabrera all during the off season. Hardly anybody listened.

KJ Duke doesn't write a book calling himself an expert.

But, that call was spot on as well.

Nice post Dan. Another guy all over Asdrubal this year was Vandy. I think I drafted in 3 leagues with him and every time he grabbed him with what I thought was too early of a pick I said to myself, "here comes another lesson about how you should just go get a guy if you like him."

I drafted Asdrubal quite a bit as a fall back if I waited at short. I thought he could be a good average protector with decent runs and RBI for shortstop. Consider me very surprised with the power and steal numbers though.



What I consider closest to an expert is a guy I don't particularly enjoy seeing at the draft table. KJ is one of those guys. Ron Shandler, not so much.

guys I stayed away from this year and I felt good about it





James Shields

Jose Reyes

Josh Beckett

Lance Berkman





If you want to be humbled repeatedly, play fantasy baseball

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Last year, one pitcher gave up the most hits, the most home runs, and the most earned runs.

Today, that pitcher is one of the most coveted pitchers in baseball. In fact, he currently has thrown 11 straight games of seven innings or more.

James Shields.

In hindsight, we can say that his BABIP was elevated and that last year was an anomaly. But it happened, and not many were expecting the year that he is having this year.

I say this to give the 'REAL experts' their due. They forecasted that Shields could be the draft day bargain of the year.Right on the money. I had Shields last year and suffered through the poor results and long balls. This year at the draft table, I had him pegged as a 12th rounder or so and I KNEW he would not be on my team again. Burned once, you know?



I needed a pitcher (would be my 4th starter) in the 14th round and Shields was still there. You know the drill. You look at your list, how you have everyone ranked, and there is one line standing out, not marked through while the six or eight below have been picked. I even commented to the table I could not believe I was doing this, held my nose, and picked Shields.



Talk about luck.

[ October 14, 2011, 11:19 PM: Message edited by: Walla Walla ]

Originally posted by Walla Walla:

Why do people pick on Ron Shandler??? He's the man. He's making money after retiring. Nothing to prove. Just like Greg. Nothing to prove. No longer a player just a face that shows up at labr leagues to get customers. Oh yeah Shawn was with Greg. Hows that working out??? Damn John, posts on the NFFC and NFBC boards in two consecutive days? You must be bored this week.



Shawn and I have been quiet recently so that we don't jinx our AL LABR team, but even that hasn't helped. We were in first place for a week or two recently and even had an 11 point lead at one point, but we're now in second place behind Lawr Michaels. Since this is a trading league, we are in good shape as we lead SBs by a ton and have trade material for help in other categories like saves. We also have Moustakas and Montero, so maybe this team will be even better in the second half than it has been so far. Shawn has done a great job with this team and is definitely doing all of the heavy lifting here.



Our three shortstop experiment in the NL is failing thanks to Hanley Ramirez and a few other slugs!! We had hoped to trade Rollins earlier in the year, but I think we just did for Colby Rasmus. Now we need Hanley to pick it up. We're 10th out of 13 teams, but Shawn still likes this team. I'll believe it when I see it!!



But we're battling away and having fun. I'd be lost without Shawn and he's welcome to be part of this LABR team as long as he wants. He's still the best in my book and a LABR title would prove it.

Well thanks, Dan and Chad ... Asdrubel is exceeding my expectations by a good margin too, but I hope no one tells him until the season is over.



Dan, you know I'm not a fan of "experts" either, especially when it's based on theory over experience. FB is a lot like investing, when you start using real money it becomes a different ballgame. Finance professors are famous for being not very good investors. You might impress people with credentials, but the market doesn't care about credentials. Schandler couldn't take the heat and he faded into the sunset. Maybe the next generation of experts will be better than that, but I think any worthwhile fantasy player takes their advice with a grain of salt.

Originally posted by Walla Walla:

Why do people pick on Ron Shandler??? He's the man. He's making money after retiring. Nothing to prove. Just like Greg. Seems he had much to prove and couldn't so he decided to stop trying. Don't tell me you're going to join him on retirement island John.



Meanwhile, Greg is trying to prove he runs the best FB contest on the planet, and he seems to be winning.

I loved Asdrubal this year! Was able to nab him on multiple teams. I also liked Jose Lopez! Win some, lose some... the better players simply "win" more than most.



Every year there is one player that I drop that I later regret so I try to be patient over a 6 month season. This year it was Phil Humber. I believed the "experts" that he would eventually regress. Ugghh. He still might but, at this point, I could've accrued another 2 months worth of nice stats. In Haan's league, I dropped Mike Morse and would love to have him back now. After 5 years (6 years?) of playing in the NFBC, experience helps but I still make many mistakes every season.

Oops. I saw the title of this thread and thought the Doughboys were doing a feature on my NFBC squad. My bad!