Over the winter I did a ton of writing on this years players. For the amount of work I did on pitching, I failed miserably when I was on the clock at the draft table. I thought I'd post some of players to take look back and see where I was right and where I was wrong.
Here's the first group of pitchers:
I feel like hell week is over. I started working on the outfielders a couple of weeks ago. I thought I needed to pound my way through most of the inventory so I could sort them properly. The pitching inventory is pretty straight forward. You are looking for the best arm possible. At times, you might settle for a lesser skill set based on the team they play for. Wins are the toughest part about fantasy baseball. As the live draft season approaches, you have to get a feel for who you can trust as your ace of your staff. Many times your mind set will change as you see some of the pitching lines coming out of spring training. You could love a player on March 1st, but three bad performances later he is on your undraftable list. Most of the time my first starter will dictate my draft plan.
There are two goals as I go through the early pitching inventory. The first is to put them is some sort of order. It will never be exact, but you will have a feel for how they flow in a draft. At the same time, you will get positive or negative news from teams or spring training. A player has a sore shoulder, he’s in the best shape of his life, or maybe he’s added another pitch. With every bit of information, you need to absorb it and apply to the inventory. If you keep your ear in tune to the news, you might avoid a pitfall come draft day or even find a hidden gem. There are times when you get tripped up by injury news. A pitcher will have a sore shoulder. The team shuts him down for a couple of weeks. When the season starts, he is healthy and he pitches well. I think over time you get a feel for news and you get better at applying it. The main thing is to get more right than wrong because most of the time there are similar option available. You can win with a solid but not great arm, but it would be tough replacing a top pitcher if he went down with an injury.
In the past, I’ve seen owners draft two elite arms early. They develop a huge edge at the front end of their staff, but they fail to fill out the back end. In other word, they beat me after the first two starters, but I have an edge in offense. I then beat them at the back end of the staff while they are trying to fix their offense. It’s a fine line at the draft table and it’s all about balance. Each year the inventory changes and there are different opportunities available in every draft. If you position your team incorrectly, you may not be in position to take advantage of an edge later in the draft. In the end, you are at the mercy of your competition.
The second part of going through the pitching inventory is identifying players with upside and downside. Every fantasy owner has a different reason why they like certain players. Sometimes they like them for the wrong reasons. I think the main thing is trying understanding a pitchers skill set. In a way, this is different than hitters. A pitching line won’t tell you what a pitcher throws or his velocity. Most of the time the velocity isn’t the key factor, but it is a huge edge when a pitcher has other plus pitchers. I’ve seen the term soft tosser used in the past. I’ve found it doesn’t necessarily match the players skill set. It is used to identify a pitcher with a low K rate. To me, a soft tosser that throws 95 has the fastball to improve his K rate if he develops better command or his other pitches improve. I think the hardest thing in fantasy baseball is seeing that 3.75 ERA and 1.27 whip in a player coming off a 5.75 ERA and 1.71 whip season. It happens every year. If you can find a couple of those improving arms and avoid a couple of pitchers going in the other direction, you could be in position to have a special year.
In the high stakes market, the top 20 pitchers really started to move up last season. I think many fantasy owners tried to get two of the top 20 arms last year. This year I’ve noticed the top starting pitching went as fast as last year, but we lost a handful of arms from last year. We gained back a couple. Overall I think the front part of the pitching inventory is deep in 2011. At first I thought it took a step back from 2010, but after doing a lot of the pitching inventory I think it may be stronger than 2010. I don’t see as many upside arms in rounds 10-15 in the high stakes games. If you miss on a top arm, do you see enough inventory to fill out your staff?
Just to be clear when I’m ranking these players, this isn’t the order I’m going to draft them. I’m ranking them how I feel they should be ranked. At the same time, I’m taking mental notes on what I like and what I don’t like. When I start to see some drafts and what other sources feel about the inventory, I’ll look back at my list to see where I can spot an opportunity. I think this is the hardest thing for another player to understand. I could give you may whole cheat sheet (which is what I’m doing), but I can’t help you with your decision making at the draft table. The goal is help you take a look at the players. At the same time, help you understand some of the reasons why I make some decisions. Then you need to apply what you like or don’t like to your game. Like I said earlier, I’m never going to get everything right. I just want to get more right than wrong. By reading some of this, you may be able to spot where I’m looking at someone at the wrong angle which creates an advantage to your team. The best thing about these games is everyone has an opinion. And that’s why we have a great game.
1-Roy Halladay (PHI) – He’s just a horse. He pitched 270 plus innings last year. He’s pitched 220 or more innings five straight years. He’s led the league in complete games four straight years. He is a pitcher that will deliver wins and the Phillies will score runs. His BB/9 rate (1.1) has improved the past three years. His K/9 rate (7.9) continues to improve and it was just off his all time high. He does give up a lot more fly balls than earlier in his career, but some of those weak ground balls are now strikeouts. His HR/FB rate (7.9 ) has started to rise over the past couple of years. It’s still major league average. A key factor in having success in the majors is strike %. He threw 68 % strikes last year and 66 % for his career. Last year his first strike % (67) was the highest of his career. The major league average is 58 %. He’ll be 34 in May. He should win close to 20 games with an ERA under 3 and 200+ K’s.
2-Adam Wainwright (STL) – I know many won’t have him ranked this high. He is turning into gamer. Wins are so important in this game and he is in position to have another great season for St. Louis. His 2009 season was great, but he made another step forward in 2010. He struggled late in August into mid September (4.90 over five starts) which pushed his ERA and whip higher at the end the year. He has made steady growth against LH hitters (.307 in 2008, .275 in 2009, and .226 in 2010). His K/9 rate (8.3) has gone up three straight years. His BB/9 rate (2.2) was his career best. He continues to get more ground ball outs. When you pair that with the growth in K’s, it’s a great sign going forward. He threw 63 % strikes overall and 61 % first pitch strikes. His does a good job holding runner on base (60 % success rate against him). He’ll start the year at age 29. I like him in 2011, but he needs to get his K’s on volume of innings unless he makes another step forward. He’ll be a free agent in 2012. The only negative was sore elbow in late September. I don’t want to hear about it in spring training.
3-Felix Hernandez (SEA) – He pitched great after the All Star break (1.53 ERA and 0.93 whip). He struggled with wins and that could be a problem again in 2011. For a young player, he has a lot of mileage on his arm. He’s coming off 249.2 innings in 2010 and 238.2 in 2009. He’s a big guy and he will turn 25 in early April. His BB/9 rate (2.5) has improved two straight years and it was his career best. His K/9 rate (8.4) was also his career best. He keeps the ball in the ballpark (0.6 HR’s rate per 9 innings). He equally dominated RH and LH hitting, but 68 % of his walks came from LH batters which was somewhat in line with his 2009 season. This is an area he could improve on. His GB rate against him remains strong (53.9 %). He threw 65 % strikes and 61 % first pitch strikes. He has a lot of things in common with Wainwright except the Cardinals should score more runs. Hernandez may have more upside based on his age, but he also has more risk due to the innings. He will get drafted very high and I’m not willing to pull the trigger on him. If he pitched for New York or Boston, he would be more attractive to me.
4-Tim Lincecum (SF) – I had my first test drive of Tim Lincecum last year. He let me down. In the past, I thought he had the ability to strike out 300 batters with better command of the strike zone. His command (3.2) took a step back which led to a decline in K’s (9.8). In the 2007 season, he was 2nd in the NL in fastballs over 95 MPH with 647. In 2008, he was also 2nd with 881. He dropped out of the top 10 in 2009 and 2010. He clearly has lost some velocity the past two years. I saw him pitch a few times last year and he was in the 93 MPH range (his average fastball in 2010 was 91.3, 2009 – 92.4, 2008 – 94.1, and 2007 – 94.2). I think he can dial it up when he wants to, but it takes more effort. He has a plus change and a great curve so 200 K’s should be repeatable. He started throwing a slider more in 2010. He pitched really well in the playoffs with better command (2.2) and his K rate was elite (10.4). His GB rate is getting stronger (48.9 % career high). He threw 64 % strikes and 57 % first pitch strikes. He’s starting to lose ground vs. LH hitting (12 HR’s and .406 slugging % in 2010, 2009 8 HR’s and .309 slug %, and 2008 2 HR’s and .305 slug %). Those numbers aren’t bad, but it shows something is going on with him. It’s something he could fix in 2011. If you combine his post season with his September (4-1 with 1.94 ERA, 0.93 whip, and 52 K’s in 41.2 innings), it leads you to believe he will be ok in 2011. I thought read somewhere where he returned to his long toss program in August which helped his velocity to return late last year. He pitched the most innings of his career (239.1). If his velocity is there in spring training, I might give him another ride.
5-Francisco Liriano (MIN) – At first glance, I was of the mind set I didn’t trust him as my ace. His command (2.7) improved and it is approaching his elite 2006 season (2.4). His K/9 rate (9.4) was a nice step forward. With continued growth with his command, his K’9 rate could approach his 2006 season (10.4). He keeps the ball in the ballpark (HR/9 rate – 0.4). He made a strong move in his GB rate (53.6 %) which almost parallels his 2006 season. I think the biggest thing for him was his slider returned to elite form. He threw it 33.8 % of the time compared to 37.6 % in 2006. He threw 64 % strikes (67 % in 2006) and he threw 61 % first pitch strikes. His strikeouts looking have always been lower than the major league average (16 % in 2006 and 22 % in 2010). The major league average is 25 %. It tells me he has great stuff. His command is great against LH batters (4:52 BB:K rate). The next step is repeating his command from his 2006 season vs. RH batters. The more I look than more I think he is going to return to his 2006 season which puts him in an elite area. His average fastball in 2010 was 93.7 MPH (5th in the AL – 94.7 in 2006). I believe he will be a top five pitcher in 2011. He just needs to avoid the disaster starts he had in 2010. He’ll start the year at age 27.
6-Jon Lester (BOS) – It was a mixed end to the 2010 season for Lester. He made a step forward, but he lost his command (25 walks in 45 innings) the last seven starts of the year. He blew up in his last start of the year where he had a chance to win 20 games (4 IP with 14 base runners and 8 runs). Without that start, he would have finished with under a 3.00 ERA. Prior to that start, he had won 6 straight with 4 starts having double digit K’s. Overall his BB/9 rate (3.6 %) and K/9 rate (9.7 %) decline from his 2009 season. He was tougher to hit (.220). His GB rate (53.6)made a nice move in favor of weaker contact and it was the highest rate of his career. He started show more confidence in his changeup last year. His strike % has declined the past two years and it was less than the major league average last year (62 %), but his first pitch strike % was the highest of his career (59 %). With better command, he could make another step forward. The Red Sox have done some nice things and one of their main competitors (Tampa) has taken a step back. Lester should win plenty of game and he is position to be the top left hander in the game. His innings are reasonable over the last three year and he is reaching his prime at age 27.
7-Clayton Kershaw (LAD) – Kershaw is on the verge of being a special pitcher. His BB/9 rate (3.6) is starting to move in the right direction. His K/9 rate (9.3) was a tick down from 2009, but it in an elite area. The last two year he’s been the toughest starting pitcher to hit in baseball (.207 combined – RH - .213 and LH - .187). He made progress in his command against RH batters (2009 – 1.41 K:BB rate and 2010 – 2.13). Last year he pitched better on the road than at home (R – 2.43 and H – 3.33). He threw 63 % strikes and 60 % first strikes. Both numbers were nice improvements from his previous season (61 % strikes and 55 % first pitch strikes in 2009). He does a very good job holding runners on (53 % success rate for his career). Last year he made the transition from a fastball/curveball (16.8 %) pitcher to a fastball/slider (19.6 %). He throws a very high % of fastballs (71.6). His changeup hasn’t developed at this point of his career. He’s threw the least amount in his career (1.8 %). For some reason, his velocity on his slider (81.4 MPH) and changeup (83.6 MPH) are very similar. When looking at this, it makes me think he is throw two types of curveballs which makes more sense with velocity of the so called slider. Kershaw is very exciting young pitcher and he is one pitch away from greatness. He needs his command to improve against RH batters to make the next step forward. He’ll start the year at age 23.
8-Justin Verlander (DET) – You have to be impressed with Verlander’s resume. He pretty much repeated his 2009 season minus a few K’s. His K/9 rate (8.8) was a big step down from his 2009 season, but it was his second best year in the majors. His BB/9 rate (2.8) was a step back from 2010. Verlander is a fly ball pitcher. Last year his Fly ball rate declined. The last two years his LD rate (23 % in 2009 and 21 % in 2010) has been higher than the major league average. He threw 65 % strikes and 63 % first pitch strikes. His 1st pitch rate is a key reason why the batting average against him has declined. In the past, base runners had a tough time stealing off him. Last year they stole 24 bases against him at a 77 % success rate. Before last year, they were only successful 42 % of the time. With Victor behind the plate, he’ll have a tough time keeping runner in check. Verlander has an excellent arm. I have a feeling we haven’t seen his best season.
9-Cliff Lee (PHI) – He has had the best command in the game the past three years. He threw 71 % strikes and 70 % first strikes. He did have a really high number strikes out looking (43 %). The major league average is 25 %. He signed a five year deal with Philly for a $120 million. The Phillies will score runs and he will pitch deep in games. He had a back problem in August and I think tried to pitch threw it which led to his worst month of the year (6.35 ERA and 1.43 whip). He pitched well in the playoffs except for his last game of the year. It was amazing to see him pitch 248 total innings with only 20 walks. His command was a career best (BB/9 rate – 0.8). His K/9 rate (7.8) was the second best of his career. It even jumped to 11.86 in 35.2 innings in the playoffs. In 2008, he was inducing more ground balls. His fly ball rate is rising slightly, but it won’t be a problem with his dominating command. He had his best year in the majors against RH hitter (.227 and 10.71 BB:K rate). Lefties had more success against him (.281). The back problem last year scares me a little. His K’s will need volume of innings to get over 200. Maybe his playoff K rate translates into a higher rate this year. He has the NL markup. I probably should like him more than I do.
10-Cole Hamels (PHI) – I’ve been a Cole Hamels fan for a couple of years. He’s a player with a great change up, but he tends to get beat by his fastball when he throws it at the belt to RH batters. He also throws a curveball. It’s more of a show me pitch. Last year he struggled with homeruns the first half of the year (19 in 112 innings – 1 per 5.89 innings). I can’t say for sure because I didn’t watch him often as I only owned him on one team, but he added a cutter in spring training. Maybe it was the reason for his second half success. Either way he corrected his homerun problem (7 in 96 innings – 1 per 13.71 innings). The main thing for him is fastball location. I think the cutter was a factor. He threw it 14.7 % of the time. His threw his fastball less, but he threw it harder (92 MPH – highest in his career). He also threw his curveball and changeup less. Even his curve and change had more velocity. The last two years, he’s had problems winning games. His command (2.6) took a step backwards, but it was all in the first half of the year. After the All Star break, his command (2.0) was back in line. His K/9 rate (9.1) was the highest since his rookie season. He’s going to be the third starter on Philly. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him being the best pitcher when the year ends. His GB rate was an all time high (45.4 %). He threw 66 % strikes which was below his career average (67 %). He threw 59 % first pitch strikes. I think he can improve in this area. The last two years he’s done a better job holding runners on base (62.2 % after allowing 86.3 % in his first three years). I’d like to see him improve his command against LH batters. I think he is an elite arm and he is getting closer to free agency. He’ll start the year at age 27.
11-Ubaldo Jimenez (COL) – He just continues to get better. Last year, he threw 1783 fastballs (1705 in 2009 and 1342 in 2008) at 95 MPH or higher. The next highest was Josh Johnson with 1149. He’s the hardest throwing starter in the game the past three years. The big thing with him is his command (3.7). He took a slight step back last year. When/if he gets his command under 3.0, he will push his K’s over 250. His GB rate decline slightly (48.8 %), but he’s a groundball pitcher with high K ability which is a very good combo. He only threw 60 % strikes and 56 % first pitch strikes. Both numbers are below the major league average. He has the arsenal. He just needs to develop his command to make the next step forward. He’ll start the year at 27. He’s made the biggest improvement in his command against LH batters the last three years (1.42 in 2008, 1.80 in 2009, and 2.37 in 2010) which led to a .191 BA against him in 2010. He did struggle after the All Star break (4-7 with 3.80 ERA). He started the year 15-1 with a 2.20 ERA. His BB rate increased in the2nd half which allow batters to have more success against him. His command is the key to his success. He’s a very talented arm pitching in a hitter’s park. I like him a lot, but his command may keep many fantasy players away when looking for my fantasy ace.
12-Zack Greinke (MIL) – For what I’m seeing, you can throw out last year’s stat line. He has a lot of owners interested in him this year. Many thought they could get him discounted after a poor season. I don’t think that is the case. He has the NL markup and the Brewers are a much better offensive team. He looked like the same pitcher until May 23 last year. From that point on, he posted way too may crooked numbers. His K/9 rate (7.4) was the lowest in 4 years. His BB/9 rate (2.3) took a step back from 2009, but it was in line with his career average. He induced more ground balls (46 % highest of his career) which may have been the reason in the decline in K’s. He does a good job keeping the ball in the ballpark (0.7 HR/9 in 2010 and 0.9 in his career). He threw 63 % strikes which matched his 2009 season. He threw 61 % first pitch strikes which was slightly down from his previous two seasons (62 %). He does a good job holding runners on base (52 % success rate against him in his career). The thing that stands out the most in his decline from his 2009 season was his command against LH hitters (5.16 in 2009 and 2.40 in 2010). He also faced more LH batters than RH batters (460/383 – in 2009). The ratio was 440/475 last year and LH hitters hit .280 against him. He’s just entering his prime (27). He may not repeat his 2009 season, but he’s solid bet to win plus games with a sub 3.50 ERA and 200+ K’s.
13-CC Sabathia (NYY) – He may have the mountain of New York riding on his back this year. If he breaks down, all hell might break lose in the Big Apple. He’s another work horse. He’s thrown 230 innings or more four straight years. His K/9 rate (7.5) has declined the last two years. His BB/9 rate (2.8) has risen the past three years. He induced a few more ground ball I50.7 % highest of his career) and his LD rate (15.1 %) against him was very low. His % of strikes has decline the past two years (63 %). He threw 58 % first pitch strikes which match his 2009 season, but it was a lot lower than the previous three seasons (66, 63, and 64). He’s a very good pitcher for a very good team. He’s only had one year with plus K year (2008 – 251), but the wins are very attractive (76 last four years). There’s something about him that makes me think I should stay away. He’ll get a lot of respect in drafts which will eliminate him from my thought process. He faces a ton of RH batters (77 % the past two years), but his biggest rival added two premier LH bats which may work in his favor in a few starts. He had minor knee surgery in late October (torn meniscus).
14-Josh Johnson (FLA) – He was having a great season before suffering a back injury and sore shoulder in September. He threw the second most fastballs of 95 MPH or higher in the NL (1149). He was making a step forward to be one of the elite arms in the game. He had TJ surgery a couple of years back and the injuries last year have to bring some risk. He’s going full price in drafts. I’d like to see him a 100 % in spring training before I decide to roster him. He was the best pitcher in baseball for four months before pitching poorly in August (4.46). His command declined which led to a lower K/9 rate (6.9). For the year, he had a 9.1 K’s per rate. It was his the best year in the majors. His BB/9 rate (2.4) was also his best year. He does an outstanding job of keeping the ball in the ballpark (0.3 HR/9). He threw 65 % strikes which was a career high. He threw 65 % first pitch strikes. He’s improved 4 straight years and the 65 % is an elite number. It is a very good sign going forward. His biggest improvement from 2009 was his command against RH hitters (3.72 in 2009 and 6.05 in 2010). I really like his arm and I think the Marlins are better than many people think. I’m not sure about the bullpen. I don’t want to hear any news about a sore shoulder or bad back in spring training. If I do, he is on the avoid list. There are just too many good arms upfront in the draft to take on risk.
15-David Price (TB) – I think he is one pitch away from being an elite pitcher. He went from throwing a slider as his second best pitch to a curve ball in 2010. The key pitch for him is the change up. It hasn’t developed as fast as he would have like. He throws an extremely high % of fastball (74 %). He was second in the AL with 1458 pitches of 95 MHP or higher. He was consistently throwing the ball between 97 and 98 late in the year. At times, he struggles with his command which leads to high pitch counts early in games. With a third swing and miss pitch, he could be electric. His BB/9 rate (3.4) improved, but he needs to get his walks under 3 per 9 innings to make a huge step forward. I don’t think that will happen until his secondary pitches improve. His K/9 (8.1) also improved. He didn’t allow a homerun to a LH batter last year. I like the fact they he pitched his best ball in September in a pennant race (4-0 with a 1.64 ERA). His command improved against RH batters(1.80 in 2009 – 2.25 in 2010), but it has a long ways to go. He threw 65 % strikes and 62 % first pitch strikes. Both numbers are impressive for a young pitcher. His pitches per batter (3.89) have improved the past two years. He does a good job holding runner on base (62 % success rate stealing bases). He is going to face a high % of RH batters (77 % in his career) going forward. If his command of his changeup or curve improves, he could be in position to make a huge step forward. Tampa has bullpen problems and their starting lineup looks a bit weaker (much better with Damon and Ramirez added to the team). I can’t see Price repeating the wins this year. He basically is Ubaldo Jimenez but lefty with a slightly better command of the strike zone. Both players have high upside. I think Price takes a small step backwards this year, but his overall skills improve. He’ll start the year at 25.
16-Mat Latos (SD) – This is a player we really need to understand. It’s not so much him. I’m just looking for something that points me in the right direction to the next Mat Latos. He had a sore elbow in spring training which made me shy away from him on many important leagues. I did own him on one big league and he was a difference maker. There was speculation he was going to start the year in AAA and they were going to limit him to 150 innings. He ended the season with 184.7 innings which was a 61.66 more than his previous season. Last year he had great command against LH batters (5.06 K:BB rate). One would think he benefited from pitching at Petco, but that wasn’t the case. His stats on the road were better overall except for ERA (K/9 rate (H -8.5, R – 9.7), BB/9 rate (H – 2.5, R – 2.4), BAA (H – .218, R - .217). All the differences are small, but it’s a good sign when he pitches in the best pitcher park in the majors. He threw 65 % strikes and 62 % first pitch strikes. He did have a very low LD rate (16 %) against him. His GB rate (44.7 %) rose. For some reason in his first stint in the majors, he threw more curveballs than sliders. His scouting reports suggested his slider was his second best pitcher. Either way, the slider was the key to his success in 2010. He threw it 22.9 % of the time (4.1 % in 2009 in limited innings). He has a solid change and he adds in an occasional curveball. The only thing that really bothers me is the 56 innings he pitched in the minors in 2008. He had a shoulder problem and an oblique injury. There’s a lot to like at age 23. I’d be concerned if he had an elbow problem in spring training. He did throw a lot more sliders in 2010. Based on his skill set, I think he has a chance to repeat. I’m just a little gun shy. I’ll be watching his progress in spring training.
17-Max Scherzer (DET) – I have to give him a lot of respect for righting the ship after being sent to AAA. His ERA was 7.29 after allowing 27 runs in 18 innings in May. He was dropped in multiple leagues when he was sent to the minors and he was a gift to anyone who picked him up. From that point on, he had a 2.47 ERA and 1.13 whip with almost a 3-1 K:BB rate. His K/9 rate was 9.29. All these number are very impressive after seeing where he came from. For the year, he made progress against LH batters, but his command took a big step back against RH batters (4.58 K:BB rate in 2009 and 2.84 in 2010). I’d like to say it was his start to the year, but walks weren’t the big problem to start the year. If he can add his 2010 improvement against LH batters to his RH command in 2009, we might have a special pitcher. He threw 64 % strikes and 60 % first pitch strikes. Both numbers were slight declines from his 2009 season. It looks like he trusts his secondary pitches more. His % of fastballs dropped to 65% which was a 6 % drop from his 2009 total. He threw both his slider and change about 3 % more. He is a player that will be discounted due to his overall stats from 2009. I expect him to be a very good number two starter in the NFBC.
18-Tommy Hanson (ATL) – There were a couple times last year his supporters were wondering what they saw in him. Three times last year he pitched poorly in back to back starts (May 15th and 20th – 8.2 innings – 13 runs, June 22nd and 27th – 7.1 innings – 14 runs, and August 21st and 27th – 10 innings – 10 runs). In the other 28 starts, he gave up 38 runs in 177.2 innings or a 1.92 ERA. It had to be frustrating as fantasy owner to see him fix his bad innings and then take another step back. I like the way he handled adversity. I see it as good sign going forward. His BB/9 rate (2.5) improved from his rookie season, but his K/9 rate (7.7) declined slightly. He improved vs. LH batters (.226), but he regressed against RH hitters (.192 in 2009 and .251 in 2010). He threw 65 % strikes and 62 % first pitch strikes. He threw a high % of slider (28 %) which was the third highest in the NL. He struggled with base runners last year. They stole 33 bases in 37 attempts (89 %). I went back and looked at his bad starts and the steals weren’t the reason for his poor pitching. Overall I see more growth. The high % slider is an injury concern for me. He’ll start the year at age 24.
19-Jered Weaver (LAA) – He had his best season in the majors. His K/9 rate (9.3) was his career best. At the same time his BB/9 rate (2.2) was his best season in the majors. He made a huge improvement against LH batters (K/9 rate – 9.60) and .223 BA against. He’s a fly ball pitcher (48.2 %) and he had a very low LD rate (15.1 %) against him. He threw 65 % strikes which was his career best. He threw 62 % first pitch strikes. He does a bad job holding runners on base (87 % success rate in 2010 and 83 % in his career). He’ll start the year at age 28. He doesn’t have lot of innings on his arm. I like the way the Angels have brought him along. He had a shoulder problem couple of years ago. With two solid years under his belt, he should continue to be a top pitcher. Last year he was a nice SP3 with upside in the NFBC. I wouldn’t want him as my ace because I think there’s a chance he regresses this year. I think he works best as a SP2.
20-Dan Haren (LAA) – He really struggled pitching for Arizona last year (4.60 ERA and 1.348 whip). His HR/9 rate (1.5) spiked. He was able to right the ship after the trade to the Angels (2.87 ERA and 1.16 whip) except his BB/9 rate (2.4) rose along with a decline in his K/9 rate (7.2). His FB rate is rising and it was a career high (40.7 %). In 2009, he stopped throwing a slider. Instead he switched to a cutter/curveball combination. He’s a four pitch pitcher (split finger is his other pitch). He threw 65 % strikes for the year, but only 63 % for the Angels. Maybe they were working with him to throw one pitch less. He threw 64 % first pitch strikes, but only 59 % for LA. I don’t know what to make of it. He had better results and his HR/9 rate decline. He has a solid resume and his command has been very good in his career. His down year will push his value down on draft day. In 2009, he had Cliff Lee like command against RH batters (.71). He’ll start the year at age 30.
21-Roy Oswalt (PHI) – He’s a perfect example of a pitcher with a long resume that bounces back after a bad year. Last year he was drafted as SP3 in most NFBC leagues. He almost delivered SP1 stats if he won a couple of more games. He’s a major league pitcher. His K rate had declined since 2004, but he was able to have his 3rd highest strikeout in his career in 2010. He’ll start the year at age 33 and he’ll be a free agent in 2012. His BB/9 rate (2.3) was higher than his past two years and below his peak years, but it is still a strong number. His K/9 rate (8.2) was his best season since his rookie season in 2001. He’s throw a rock solid 68 % strikes for his career and he repeated that number last year. He threw 65 % first pitch strikes. The biggest change in his arsenal was the increased number of changeup thrown. He threw 15.1 % which was double any other season in the majors. Maybe he found a different grip that gave him a better reaction. Either way, he threw his changeup, slider, and curveball all about the amount of time. I’m guessing, but the changeup was the biggest reason for the jump in K’s. With his skill set, I would imagine his K total from 2010 could be repeatable. He’s pitching for a good team in a contract year. The only risk is his balky back.
22-Matt Cain (SF) – I think he is a player with a solid resume and plenty of talent. He’s a player I wouldn’t be surprised to see him have a year with a huge jump in K’s. It might not be this year, but he will strike out 250 in a season. His command is steadily improving and last year his BB/9 rate (2.5) was the best of his career. His K/9 rate (7.1) has declined as his command improved. It usually rises. I think his K rate improves this year. He’s been a solid major league pitcher, but he struggles to win games (57-62 in his career). The biggest improvement in his game is his command vs. RH batter (3.38 K:BB rate). It was huge step forward and a sign of his development. He’ll start the year at age 26 and he’s making a push for a big contact (free agent 2013). He threw 65 % strikes and 59 % first pitch strikes. His FB rate (46.6 %) is rising, but he keeps the ball in the ballpark (0.9 in 2010 and 0.8 for his career). His % of curveballs and changeup is rising while he’s using his slider less. The one concern is the drop in his average fastball rate (91.6 career low), but he may be throwing more two seam fastballs now. I think he is a nice upside SP2. The only concern is wins. I don’t think San Fran will score a ton of runs this year.
23-Chris Carpenter (STL) – Chris Carpenter is solid major league pitcher and he knows how to win games. His BB/9 rate (2.4) was the highest since he has been in St. Louis. His K/9 rate (6.9) improved slightly from 2009, but it’s short of his best year from 2004-2006. He pitched equally well against RH and LH batters. His K/9 rate (7.7) was strong and repeated his best years, but it tailed off after the All Star break (5.8). His BB/9 rate (2.05) improved in 2nd half and his K:BB rate was exactly the same in both halves of the year (2.84). His GB rate (51.1) has always been elite, but it had a slight decline in 2010. He threw 64 % strikes and 58 % first pitch strikes. His overall strike % was a slight decline. His first pitch strike % was big step back from his resume. He had been rock solid 62-64 % in his best years. His fastball (91.4) was in line with best years, but it was a step back from his 2009 season (93) which was career high. Prior to his TJ surgery, he threw his curveball as his second best pitch and his slider third. In 2007, he transitioned to a cutter as his third best pitch. When he returned in 2009, his slider (27.6 %) was the pitch he threw the most after his fastball. Last year his slider % (19.9) declined as his curveball % (27) rose to a career high. When he was at his best, he was throwing a 4th pitch with some success. I see the decline in slider % as a bad sign. Maybe his elbow was bothering him in the second half of the year. He’s a professional pitcher and he will get drafted high as a SP2 in the NFBC. He’ll turn 36 in April. I think he has some risk. He’ll be a free agent in 2012.
24-Chad Billingsley (LAD) – He’s lost some luster the past two years. His K/9 rate (8.0) is declining, but it is a strong number. It was good to see his BB/9 rate (3.2) start to make a move in the right direction. In his career, he’s done a good job against RH batters (.224) despite inconsistent command (2.68 K:BB rate in 2007, 3.93 in 2008, 1.64 in 2009, and 3.50 in 2010). His command has improved vs. LH batters, but he makes one step forward and a half step back (1.66 in 2008, 2.56 in 2009, and 2.06 in 2010). He threw 63 % strikes and 59 % first pitch strikes. His GB rate (49.6 %) made a move back in the right direction. It was his highest rate in the major league career. It looks like he is trying to find a balance between his cutter and curveball. He throws an occasional slider and changeup. He does a good job holding runners on base (55 % success rate against him). There’s no doubt he has talent. He could make huge step forward at any time. He did pitch better in the second half of the year, but he didn’t show any improvement in his command. He’s getting closer. If you want to bet on the come, he has enough talent. He may need another year to develop. His price is fair at the draft table. He’ll start the year at age 26.
25-Yovani Gallardo (MIL) – There was something about him in 2009 that bother me. I avoided him last year. He has put together two very good seasons with a great K/9 rate (9.9 in 2009 and 9.7 in 2010). His BB/9 rate (3.6) improved, but it needs to make a bigger step forward. He made some nice growth in his command vs. RH hitters (3.05 K:BB rate in 2010 – 2.20 in 2009). He allowed an extremely high LD rate (26 %) which was similar to his rookie season (25 %). He threw 61 % strikes which is an improvement over 2009, but it is still below the major league average. His first strike % (62) was the highest of his career. He did a better job of holding runners on base (35 % success rate). He started to throw a slider more and his curveball is his second best pitcher. He’ll start the year at age 25. With two plus K seasons under his belt, he’s poised to make the next step forward as his innings start to rise. He has an excellent chance to strikeout 225+ batters, but his whip is still the biggest concern. With better command and less line drives, he could make a push to be a top ten pitcher.
26-Josh Beckett (BOS) – The Red Sox made a nice donation to him in 2010. He basically stole the first year of his 68 million dollar contract. He was a mess. He tried to pitch with a bad back to no avail. He probably had a problem before the season judging by his early season stat lines. Fantasy owners could have used this information in March. His HR/9 rate (1.4) wasn’t his worst season (1.6 in 2006). He bounced back to win 20 games the following season. Last year he started using a cutter more and throwing his curveball less. He also threw his changeup more which is a poor pitch in my opinion. He doesn’t have enough speed differential from his fastball (FB – 93.5, CU 87.7). No matter how you look at it, his back had to be the problem all year. His command was elite in 2007 and 2008. He has enough talent and he pitches for the right team to have a bounce back year. I’d like to own his as SP3, but he is going to get some respect just based on his resume. His second best pitch is his curveball. Maybe the cutter develops to allow him to have more success against LH batters. At the draft table, you will have to see beyond 5.78 ERA and 1.53 whip and just pull the trigger at the right time. He’ll start the year at age 30.
27-Daniel Hudson (ARI) – When Jake Peavy went down, Dan Hudson was called up. In way, he became Peavy or I should say he pitched like him when he arrived in Arizona (7-1 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.84 whip). His BB/9 rate (2.5 for the year and 1.8 in Arizona) was in line with his minor league career. His K/9 rate (7.9) was strong and his minor league resume shows more upside (10.2). He had equal success against RH (.201)and LH hitting (.203), but his command was much better against RH batters (4.09 K:BB). His LOB % (83.1) was very high which point to a step back in ERA. He’s a fly ball pitcher (45.5 %). He threw 66 % strikes and 59 % first pitch strikes. His average fastball was 92.5. His second best pitch is his changeup. He also throws a slider. He had an exciting start to his career. I like that he throw a high % of strikes from Jump Street. The FB % is a concern if his command takes a step back. All and all there’s a lot to like here. I don’t expect a 2.50 ERA, but I expect him to be an asset maybe in the 3.50 range. He’s shown the ability to strikeout batters at every level. With 200 innings, he will give you a very solid number in that area. He will be a nice upside SP3. He’ll start the year at age 24. He’s a player that should be on your radar.
28-Clay Buchholz (BOS) – Even with a 2.33 ERA in 2010, he isn’t getting respect in drafts due to his low K total. His K/9 rate (6.2) has declined every year in the majors. His BB/9 rate (3.5) was the same as his previous season showing no growth. He was tougher to hit from both side of the plate, but his command remains poor vs. LH batters (1.45 K:BB rate – 3.85 BB/9 and 5.59 K/9). He held LH batters to a .230 batting average, but it doesn’t look repeatable unless he improves his command. He may need to find another pitch against LH batters. He was pretty consistent the whole year. He did miss some time after the All Star break with a hamstring injury. In the past, he struggled with homeruns (HR/9 the past two year was 1.3), but he kept the ball in the ballpark in 2010 (0.50). He did have a slight decline in his GB rate (50.8 %), but he does keep the ball on the ground. He threw 62 % first strikes which was the exact number from his previous two seasons. His first pitch strikes % dropped to 59. That number has declined the past three years. He improved in his ability to hold runners on (100 % in 2009 – 6 steals to 57 % success rate in 2010). His average fastball (94.1) ranked 3rd in the AL. He’s turning into a slider/change up pitcher with some curveballs. His curveball is a very good pitch, but he must lack the command (maybe too many homeruns off it). His % of sliders has increase each year at the expense of his curveball. He’ll start the year at age 27. He definitely has some question marks. He has to have something going on to have as much success as he did last year. His inning totals are reasonable. His K’s will naturally go up as he pitches more innings. I’d draft him thinking 3.50 to 3.75 with 150+ K’s if he pitches 200 innings. He may even surprises if he can solve his command problem vs. LH batters.
29-Brandon Morrow (TOR) – In a way, he reminds me of Ricky Nolasco last year. Morrow had a great run midsummer, but his BB/9 rate (4.1) is way too high. He’s made some improvements and he could be a monster if he gets his walks under 3 per 9. He does carry some risk. He had shoulder problems in the past. He did show improve command when he was switch to the closer role in the middle of the 2008 season. Most of his command problems are against LH batters (2.10 K:BB rate). When he was getting lit up to start the year, his K rate (11.7) was very strong. From May 31st on, his ERA was 3.64 with a 1.21 whip. His K/9 rate (10.52) was impressive. He threw 62 % strikes and 53 % first pitch strikes. He did a great job holding runners on base (47 % success rate). Last year he had more success throwing four pitches (FB - 58.4 %, SL -15.3 %, CB – 12.2 %, and CU – 14.1 %). In the past, he was more of a two pitch pitcher. He has tried a split finger in the past. I think he made some development as pitcher. I’d like to know his first pitch strike % when he started to show better command (3.1 after May 26). He has electric stuff and he will be drafted as SP2. He has some injury risk and command issues. He has shown us two dominate stretches in his career – once as closer. There’s a lot to like, but you just hope he doesn’t have any more growing pains. He’ll start the year at 26.
30-Colby Lewis (TEX) – He has a very short major league resume. It was good see him have less command with Texas than his previous two years in Japan but he almost maintained his strikeout rate (BB/9 rate – 1.37 in 2008 and 0.97 in 2009 in Japan). He had elite command in Japan and he may improve it in 2011. So far, I’ve shied away from him. When I look a little deeper into the numbers, I can see where he looks more attractive especially if he is discounted. He was a little more hittable in the second half of the year, but his command improved. His next step is improving his command against LH batters (BB/9 – 3.9). He threw 65 % strikes and 63 % first pitch strikes. His K % looking was 31 % which was high. As he makes his way around the league couple of more times, this number may decline. He is a FB (44.9 %) pitcher and his LD rate (17 %) against him was very low. The big improvement is his game is his slider. He threw 27.2 % of the time. He has a chance to repeat and maybe even improve. I’d like to see a longer resume, but he does have three solid seasons in row. I respect what he did last year and I’d buy at the right price. He’ll start the year at age 31. I’m concerned about him being the ace.
31-Brett Anderson (OAK) – There’s just something about a young pitcher going on the DL twice with a sore elbow in his second season in the majors. He has ton of talent, but he has risk. It’s not like he is discounted at the draft table. He’ll be drafted as an SP3. There’s always a chance to stays healthy and he makes an impact in 2011. He pitched well last year, but his K/9 rate (6.0) regressed. His BB/9 rate (1.8) made a nice step forward. I’d like see a improved walk rate along with a rise in K’s. He has elite command in the minors (1.9 BB/9). His K/9 rate (9.6) in the minors shows more upside. He has excellent command against RH and LH batter so far in his major league career, but he has struggled with LH batter so far (.308). His GB rate (54.6 %) rose in 2010. He threw 62 % strikes and 56 % first pitch strikes. Both numbers were 2 % lower than his rookie season. He throws a high % of slider (31.8 % for his career). There’s a lot to like and tremendous upside, but the elbow is a concern. I have to believe there’s no damage or they wouldn’t have let him pitch late in the year. I’m ranking him based on his talent. If I hear anything about a sore elbow in spring training, he’s on the avoid list. There’s too much risk taking him as a SP3.
32-Jeremy Hellickson (TAM) – He’s a player that is going to draw some interest this year. In the NFBC, he would be a nice upside SP3 if you have two solid arms in front of him. It’s hard to imagine him matching many SP2 just based on the amount of innings he’s going to pitch this year. He’ll be 24 when the season starts. He pitched 154 last year so it’s safe to say Tampa will let him pitch 180 inning this year. His minor league K/9 rate was 9.8 and his BB/9 rate was 2.1. Both numbers are extremely attractive and he repeated his success at the major league level. In his first 36.2 innings, he had a BB/rate of 2.0 and K/9 rate of 8.2. He had dominate command against RH batters (9.5 K:BB rate with a .154 BAA) to start his major league career. He struggled a bit with LH bats (.301 BAA – 4 HR’s allowed). He threw 64 % strikes and 64 % first pitch strikes. This is very good sign going forward. To start his major career, he allowed a very low LD rate (16 %), but a high FB (49 %) rate which led to 1.2 HR/9 rate. He’s a fastball/changeup pitcher with a solid curve. He threw a cutter a small % of the time. It may be a pitch he is developing to use against LH batters. He is a nice upside starter and I think he will be the second best starter on Tampa. It’s hard for me to think of him as a SP2 until he pitches 200 innings. He’ll need to solve his early struggles vs. LH hitters if he is going to have success against the Red Sox and Yankees.
33-Phillip Hughes (NYY) – He pitched great for his first 13 starts of the year (3.17 ERA and 1.13 whip). From that point on, he struggled with his command and HR’s. The last three months of the year he allowed 17 HR’s in 88.1 innings (1.7). His biggest problem was LH batters. They only hit .235 against him, but they clubbed 17 HR’s in 91 innings (1.68 per 9). His BB rate (3.85) was also poor against LH batters. The walks were a sign from his 2009 season (4.3) . He did improve, but he must have made more mistakes as he went through the batting order. His FB rate (47.1) did spike. He threw 66 % strikes and 63 % first pitch strikes. He picked up a cutter in 2009 and he’s settled into a fastball, cutter, and curveball pitcher. He also throws a changeup, but it hasn’t developed at this point of his career. He needs to find a pitch that works better against LH batters to make the next step forward. He throws strikes and his curveball is a plus pitch. Most of his HR’s (16) came between the 4th and 6th innings and he allowed most of them (17) to players who hit between 3 and 6 in the order. He has talent an upside and I have to believe he continues to improve. The HR’s and 4.19 ERA will keep some players away, but he will be well worth his selection as a SP3.
34-Ricky Nolasco (FLA) – He was a player that was misplaced in many high stakes drafts last year. Many players selected him as a SP2 based on his high K rate (10) in the second half of 2009. He still had a 5.09 ERA staring you in the face. I didn’t trust him last year. This year he is getting drafted as a SP3 in the high stakes market. His K rate (8.4) took a step back, but his BB rate (1.9) improved. The bottom line is he makes too many mistakes in the strike zone. He allowed 24 homeruns in 157.2 inning (1.4 per 9). He has a declining HR rate against LH batters, but it is rising just as fast against RH batters. His command is almost identical the last three years against RH (around 6.5 K:BB rate) and LH (3.30) batters. His GB rate (40 %) was a career high. His HR/FB rate has risen three straight years. He threw 68 % strikes and 66 % first pitch strikes. His first pitch strike % was a career high and it was 5 % higher than 2009. He’s a tough guy to figure out. His command is exciting, but the homerun rate is a concern. He signed a three year $26.5 million dollar deal with Florida in the off season. He had knee problem last summer which led to knee surgery in September (torn meniscus). I’d like to say that was the problem, but he only had one solid month last season (July 5-1 with 3.00 ERA, 0.976 whip, and 47 K’s in 42 innings.). I’m willing to throw him a bone based on the knee problem and he had a very low LOB % (61) in 2009. I wouldn’t over pay and I don’t want to see any negative news in spring training. He has the command if he is healthy and keeps the ball in the ballpark. He could be positioned for a solid year.
35-Edwin Jackson (CHI) – He’s coming off an up and down year. He struggled with his command in Arizona (1.73 K:BB). When he arrived in Chicago, he was a totally different pitcher. His BB/9 rate (2.2) was strong and his K/9 rate (9.2) was a career high which led to a 4.28 K:BB rate. For the whole year, his stats took a step back (4.47 ERA, 1.395 whip, and 3.4 BB/9) except his K/9 rate (7.8). He struggled with wild pitches (20). His LOB % (69.6) was a bit low. His command improved against LH batters (2.82), but it declined against RH batters (1.92). His GB rate (49.4) made a nice move in the right direction. He threw 62 % strikes for the year but 64 % for Chicago. He threw 57 % first pitch strikes which was career high and 59 % for the White Sox. He had very low % of strikes looking (15) in 2010 and 16 % for his career. He ranked 3rd in the AL in fastballs at 95 or higher (876 – this number is combined for AL and NL). His second best pitch is his slider. His changeup % went up slightly in 2010 (8.2 %). He has a plus fastball and he showed some growth when he was traded to the White Sox. I like that his strike % is rising. He has a live arm and I think he is a solid SP3 or SP4 in 2011. His K’s have a chance to push over 200 if he can build off his second half command. He’ll start the year at age 27.
36-Tim Hudson (ATL) – He had a nice bounce back season after TJ surgery in 2009. His K rate (5.5) remains weak, but he makes up for it with volume of innings. His BB rate (2.9) took a step back. Most of his command problems happen in the first half of the year (3.38 BB rate). He was 2.35 the rest of the way despite fading in September (5.52 ERA). He allowed 3 runs or less in 22 of his first 25 starts. He had an incredible GB rate (64.1 %) and a measly 13.6 % LD rate. He threw 62 % strikes and 54 % first pitch strikes. For his career, he’s thrown 63 % strikes and 59 % first pitch strikes. His average fastball (91.2) almost matched his early days in Oakland. He threw just about every pitch – slider, cutter, curveball, change, and split finger. His slider is his second best pitch. He won’t be flashy, but he is solid arm. I think his command will improve this year which will lead to slight bump in K’s. I think he can get 150 K’s with 225 innings pitched. I have a slight concern about the big workload a year after his TJ surgery.
37-Johnathan Sanchez (SF) – He’s a player I haven’t trusted in the past. I thought he had some injury risk and walks have been a problem. His K/9 rate (9.5) is very strong, but his BB rate (4.5) is in a dangerous territory. He made a slight improvement from 2009. His command vs. RH hitters has improved the past two years (1.63, 1.79, and 2.18). At the same time, it has declined against LH batters (6.57, 3.31, and 2.00). Lefties are hitting .214 for their career against him so he won’t face a high % of them (21 % in 2010). He threw 62 % strikes and 57 % first pitch strikes. His first strikes % is a decline from his previous season. He has improved on the number of pitches per batter three years in a row. He made some progress holding runners on base (65 % success rate in 2010 – 81 % before last season). His FB rate (43.7 %) is rising as his LD rate (14.8 %) declines. The overall velocity of his three pitches declined last year (FB 91.7 to 90.6, SL 81.4 to 80.4, and CU 83.5 to 81.2). I’d like to think he was more under control, but his command didn’t improve that much. The San Fran bullpen pitched very well which help keep LOB % high (79.5 % - 72 % in the major league average). There’s no doubt he has a live arm. I don’t like the slight decline in velocity and I hate his command. When I look at him, I think of Oliver Perez in 2004 except Sanchez has a third pitch. I think he has some risk and I see him stepping back in 2011.
38-Wandy Rodriguez (HOU) – He almost buried a few teams with his bad start last year (4.97 ERA and 1.52 whip). For those who weathered the storm, he rewarded them with a plus second half of the year (2.11 ERA and 1.04 whip). Last year he was drafted as a SP2 in many teams and there were a couple of daring owners who drafted him as an ace. He isn’t an elite arm, but he will help some teams win at the right price. In 2010, he had great command against LH hitters (7.17 K:BB rate). He took a step back against RH batters (2.18), but much of it could have been from the first half of the year. His command was the clear difference in the two halves (before the All Star break – 1.93 and after 3.61). For the year, his BB/9 rate (3.1) and his K/9 rate (8.2) declined. His LD rate (21 %) was a lot higher than his 2009 season (16 %). He threw 62 % strikes which was a drop from his previous two seasons. His first strike % (60) has declined the past two years. Base runners only have a 54 % success rate against him. His GB rate (47 %) is rising. His fastball is 89 so he will struggle with poor command. Before last season, his % of changeups had declined four years in a row. Maybe he changed his grip. He threw the second most of his career (11.2 %). He’ll start the year at 31. Wins could be a problem again in 2011. He’s an ok SP3 in the NFBC, but I’d rather see him drafted as a SP4.
39-Shaun Marcum (MIL) – He pitched well after having TJ surgery in 2008. He had some elbow stiffness which landed him on the DL midsummer. His BB/9 rate (2.0) and K/9 rate (7.6) were career bests. He has struggled allowing homeruns in his career (1.3 per 9), but he has improved every year in the majors. He pitched the most innings of his career (195.1) after only pitching 15.2 in 2009. The move to the NL should help him. He dominated LH batter (.190 with 4.75 K:BB), but RH hitters hit .298 against him. He has success against them pre TJ surgery (.200 in 2008). His BB rate (1.6) and K rate (7.9) improved after the All Star break. His FB rate (43.3) is rising slightly. He threw 65 % strikes (career high) and 63 % first pitch strikes (career high). He had his best year holding runners on base (47 % success rate). His average fastball (87.1) is short, but he used four other pitches (SL, CT, CB, and CU). His changeup is his best pitch. His % of slider has declined every year in the majors. He looks like he is on the improve, but he doesn’t have the fastball of most SP2’s. He definitely can pitch but without elite command he will take a step backwards. I think he has success this year, but I wouldn’t pay full price for him.
40-Hiroki Kuroda (LAD) – He’s put together three good season in the majors. His BB/9 rate (2.2) has been solid and his K/9 rate (7.3) has improved the past two years. He’s consistently done a good job against RH batters and he had elite command against them in 2009 (8.83 K:BB). His K rate rose as a result of having more success against LH batters (2.65 K:BB – highest in his major league career). His GB rate (51.1) remains strong. He threw 64 % strikes and 59 % first pitch strikes. He has a solid fastball (92.3). His second best pitch is a slider. He threw it at the second highest rate in the NL (31.8 %). His third pitch is a split finger fastball. His major league resume is consistent with his success in Japan. He’ll start the year at age 36. He’s never thrown over 200 innings in any season. Last year he averaged just over 6 1/3 inning per start which may hurt his chances of winning plus games. The Dodgers signed him to a one year deal in November. I think he is a solid arm with limited upside in K’s unless he can push his innings higher.
41-John Danks (CWS) – He’s put together three straight solid season. His BB/9 rate (3.0) moved back in right direction after stepping back in 2009. His K/9 rate (6.8) is lower than his first two years in the majors and well below his minor league rate (9.3). He has had more success against RH batter in his career (RH - .240 and LH - .264). He really only had two solid months (April – 1.55 ERA and July – 2.91 ERA). His ERA was over 4.00 the other four months. His HR/9 rate (1.2) started to rise the last two months of the year. His GB rate (45.4 %) was career high. He threw 64 % strikes and 60 % first pitch strikes. Both number almost match his 2008 season where he had the best command of his career. He gets low % of strikes looking (17 % in 2010). After allowing 23 and 18 steals the previous two seasons, he only allowed 6 with a 50 % success rate. His average fastball (91.7) was the fastest of his career. He’s starting to depend on his cutter more and more (24.1 % - most in his career), but he has a solid changeup. With slightly better command and more success against LH batters, he could make another step forward. He’ll turn 26 in April. On paper, he looks like steady arm. With a bump in innings, he could make a push toward SP2 in 2011.
42-Matt Garza (CHI) – He gets a bump in value after getting traded to the Cubs. His BB/9 rate (2.8) improved, but his K/9 rate (6.6) declined. He’s put together three good season in a row. We need to decide if he is a player with 200 K ability or was late year what we are looking at in the future. His BB rate (3.68) against LH batters improved from 2009 (4.62), but his K rate (6.24) in 2010 was a sharp declined (9.16). His BB/9 rate (2.2) improved in the second half of 2010, but his K rate (6.3) declined. His FB rate (44.7) has risen the past two years which has led to a poor HR rate (1.2) against him. He threw 63 % strikes and 58 % first pitch strikes. His first pitch strikes % has improved the past two years. He pretty much threw the same pitches at the same rate as 2009, but he had slightly better velocity across the board. He has potential. He needs better command against LH batters and do a better job of keeping the ball in the ballpark. He’ll start the year at 27. He should improve this year just based on the switch to the NL. He will be solid SP3 if he can get 175 K’s.
43-Ricky Romero (TOR) – When I look at him, I think I should stay away. I wonder why I wasn’t interested in him last year. When I looked at his minor league resume, it doesn’t support his breakout season, but he was drafted in the first round in 2005 and Toronto signed him to a five year 30 million dollar contract last August. He has to be doing something right. He has a plus changeup and he added a cutter to his repertoire last season. It could be the reason he stepped forward. His BB/9 rate (3.5) and K/9 rate (7.5) improved. His command improved against RH hitting (1.95 K:BB rate) which led to a lower BAA (.231). After May, his command declined very month of the season. He threw 61 % strikes and 58 % first pitch strikes. Only his first strike % made a slight bump forward, but by no means did his ability to throw strikes improve. He had a very low % of strikeouts looking (14 %). It tells me he wasn’t fooling too many batters and most like they were swing at pitches out of the strikes zone. He does an excellent job holding runners on base in his first two years in the major (52 % success rate). He throws a very high % of groundballs (55 %) which was in line with his rookie season. His average fastball was 90.8. He may be a better version of Mark Buerlhe. I have mixed feeling about him. In way, I think he takes a step back, but he could also improve with better command especially his first pitch strikes %.
44-Ryan Dempster (CHI) – He made a nice transition to being a starter. His BB/9 rate (3.6) has started to take a step backwards after showing some growth in 2009. His K/9 rate (8.7) was career high. His command is declining vs. LH hitters (2.79 K:BB rate in 2008, 2.40 in 2009, and 2.30 in 2010). After establishing a career high command against RH batters in 2009 (3.65), he moved back to 2.55 last year. His ERA and whip have risen the last two years. His LD rate (14 %) was very low in 2010 and it has been better than the major league average since he’s been converted to a starter (17 % in 2008 and 16 % in 2009). He threw 62 % strikes and 60 % first pitch strikes. His K rate looking (20 %) is below the major league average of 25 %. He used to be a fastball, slider, and changeup pitcher. In 2009, he traded his changeup for a split finger fastball. It looks like the split finger pitch is the reason for his jump in K’s. It looks like the key for his success is the batter swinging at pitches out of the strikes zone. If his command fails, his split finger pitch has less value. I’ll pass on the 200 K’s and the declining numbers. I don’t think he’s dead, but I’d only buy at a discount. He’ll start the year at age 34.
45-Edison Volquez (CIN) – He struggled in his first half season back from TJ surgery. He started to hit his stride in September (1.95 ERA in 27.2 innings with 31 K’s and 3.88 K:BB ratio). For the year, he struggled with his command against LH batters (18 walks and 17 K’s). He has a plus arm, but his command needs a lot of work. In his best season in 2007, BB/9 rate was 4.3 and K/9 rate was 9.5. Last year his K/9 rate (9.6) was in line, but his BB/9 rate (5.0) took a step back which can be expected for player with his skill set coming off TJ surgery. He threw 59 % strikes and 57 % first pitch strikes. His overall % was lower than his elite 2007 season, but his first strike % was his career high (53 % in 2007). His GB rate (53.9 %) was an all time high in 2010. His average fastball last year (93.6) matched his 2007 season. He second best pitch is his changeup. Last year he used his curveball a lot more than in the past (19.1 %). Volquez has some risk due to the walks, but he is one of the few upside arms going between round 10 and 15 in the NFBC. Depending on my staff, I like to own him as a SP3 or SP4. He has high K ability. He threw 106.2 innings last year. I just wonder how hard they push him this year. He’ll start the year at age 27.
46-John Lackey (BOS) – He struggled with his command in 2010 after he signed a huge five year deal with Boston. His BB/9 rate (3.0) has declined three straight years. His K/9 rate (6.5) has steadily decreased since his 2005 season. He had a huge decline in command against LH batters (1.57 K:BB). In the second half of the year, his K/9 rate (7.8) moved in the right direction while his BB/9 rate (2.4) moved back in line. His LOB % (69.3) was low. His GB rate (45.6) was the highest of his career. He threw 63 % strikes and 63 % first pitch strikes. In his best years, both of those numbers were in the 65 % range. He allowed 26 steals which was the highest number in his career. The success rate (72 %) was in line with his career average. He looked like he had the same approach against batters with the exception of a couple more changeups. The velocity remained the same if not better than previous seasons. Overall he looked like a pitcher that struggled for half of the year. His second half points to a bounce back season in 2011. He’s a gamer and he will last long enough into game to get wins. He makes the most sense as veteran SP4 with a nice upside SP3 in front of him. With a few more strikes, he may even improve.
47-Trevor Cahill (OAK) – He’s a player that isn’t getting a lot of respect in early drafts. The one and only reason is his poor K/9 rate (5.4). His BB/9 rate (2.9) is solid and better than any season in the minors. His minor league K/9 rate was 9.9. He had success against RH and LH batters, but he needs his command to improve vs. RH batters (1.59 K:BB). He’s an extreme ground ball pitcher (56 %) and he had a very low LD rate (15%). He threw 60 % strikes and 57 % first pitch strikes. He had a high % of strikeouts looking (44). It’s probably due to his low K rate. He throws a sinking fastball and a plus curve. He’s an interest player this year. I can’t see him repeating, but I can see him being a fantasy asset this year. I’d like to see him throw more strikes. His minor league resume suggest his K rate will improve. He missed most of April so I expect his innings to rise this year. In his minor league career, he was minus 77 hits to innings pitched (247). It confirms his 2010 season as far batting average against. I like him as a SP4 and I think he is the best arm on the A’s.
48-Madison Bumgarner (SF) – I think I missed the boat on him last year. It wasn’t so much I didn’t know who he was. I just shied away because of the huge drop in velocity in his fastball. I thought it was a bad sign for a young player especially making the step up in the majors. Overall he pitched well. His BB/9 rate (2.1) was strong and it almost matched his minor league rate (1.9). His K/9 rate (7.0) was better than I expected, but it was below his minor league resume (8.0). Maybe I thought he had a higher upside based on his first season in rookie ball (15-3 with a 1.46 ERA, 0.93 whip, and 164 K’s in 141.2 innings). He had excellent command against LH batters (4.29 K:BB rate) and very good against RH batter (2.95). His ERA may be a bit low due to a very high LOB % (81.7). He threw 66 % strikes and 60 % first pitch strikes. He pitched very well in September and the playoffs (1.54 ERA, 1.10 whip, and 50 K’s in 52.2 innings). His average fastball (91.3) was 2 MPH faster than his stint in the majors in 2009. He added a curveball and showed more confidence in his changeup. He’s player I need to follow in spring training. I’m interested in him as a SP4 if the velocity remains strong.
49-Chris Sale (CWS) – He came out of nowhere to have success in Chicago’s bullpen last year. It sounds like he might start the year in the bullpen, but you can’t dismiss he has a chance to start. His average fastball was 96.3 when he reached the majors. He has a plus changeup, but he relied on his slider more in the bullpen (29.7 % ). He had similar command as Steven Strasburg in his last year in college. In 23.1 innings in the majors, his BB/9 rate was 3.9. His K/9 rate (12.3) was elite. He dominated RH batters (.120 and 3.83 K:BB). Here’s his minor league resume – 10.1 innings, 6 H, 3 R, 6 BB, and 19 K’s. He threw 60 % strikes and 55 % first pitch strikes. He had a high GB rate (51 %). He’s 6’5” 170 Lbs. He has a unique throwing motion which many scouts believe could lead to an injury down the road. He has an exciting skill set, but he has plenty of question marks about his role. I can’t really expect more than 150 innings, but he could still deliver over 150 K’s. In the high stakes market, he will attract a lot of attention. He has the talent you want to gamble on, but the price has to be right. His lowest value would be as a set up man. His highest would be closer or starter. I think he starts the year in the rotation until Peavy returns. He then takes over the closer role. It’s a win win. He helps the team in two areas and they control his innings this year. I’m ranking him this high based on him starting or closer.
50-Kevin Slowey (MIN) – He’s a pitcher I’ve like the past couple of years. He has had a wrist problem the past two years. He knows how to win games 39 -21 in his career. His BB/9 rate (1.7) was a slight decline from his career rate, but it is an elite number. His K/9 rate (6.7) took a step back. He’s struggled with homeruns in his career (1.4 per 9). Prior to last year, he had walked 7 RH batters in his first 170.1 major league innings (0.04). His K:BB rate over that period against RH hitters was 17.14. Last year he struggled with his command against RH batters (1.30 – great rate for any other pitcher) which led to a 1.77 HR/9 rate. He had a sprained ankle in July and a strained tricep in August. He had an extremely high FB rate (50.6). He threw 66 % strikes and 65 % strikes. Both numbers were 3 % lower than his 2010 season. His average fastball (89.6) was in line with his previous seasons. His threw his fastball less last year (61.1 %) compared to 66.3 % in 2008. He threw his slider, curveball, and changeup slightly higher. He’s a player coming off two disappointing seasons. He’s another removed from his wrist surgery. He throws strikes and he could be poised to make the next step forward. He needs to be healthy and he needs to keep the ball in the ballpark. He’ll turn 27 in early May.
51-Brian Matusz (BAL) – He pitched well the first five weeks of the year, but there were a couple of games where he gave up runs in the last inning of work. He had a stretch where in one game in 3 and ½ months (18 starts). He finished the year strong winning 7 of his last 11 starts (2.17 ERA and 1.03 whip). His BB/9 rate (3.2) needs some improvement and his minor league resume suggest it will (2.5). His K/9 rate (7.3) was solid in his first full year. His minor league rate was 9.6. His struggled with his command against RH batter (1.77 K:BB). He allowed 17 of his 19 homeruns to RH batters. He had excellent command against LH batters (4.64). He threw 65 % strikes, but only 57 % first pitch strikes. In his short 2009 season, he threw 62 % first pitch strikes. He is more of a fly ball pitcher (45 %). His average fastball (89.9) was lower than his first season. The fastball velocity is tough to gage sometimes when they mix in four and two seam fastballs. His changeup is his second best pitch. He also throws a slider and curveball. He’ll start the year at age 24. I like the growth at the end of the year especially after not winnings games for 3+ months. He’s going to pitch in a tough division. I think he will improve this year, but he may only win 11 games. His K total should rise just by volume of innings.
52-Ian Kennedy (ARI) – This former Yankee put together a nice season after struggling with a blood clot in his right shoulder in 2009. He had a huge jump in innings from 23.2 to 194. His K/9 rate (7.8) was solid. It was even higher in his minor league career (9.9). He struggled with walks (70) and wild pitches (16). His BB/9 rate (3.2) was slightly higher than his career minor league rate (2.8). He struggled with homeruns (1.2 per 9). He had success against RH and LH batters, but his command was much better vs. lefties (3.03). He has a nice September (1.55 ERA and 0.93 whip). He had a stretch between June 15 and August 9 where you couldn’t trust him (6.36 ERA and 1.39 whip). He’s more of a fly ball pitcher. He threw 63 % strikes and 63 % first pitch strikes. His average fastball (89.3) is below the major league average. He has a solid change and he trusted his curveball last year. He’s a former number one pick of the Yankees with a solid minor league resume that supports his 2010 season. The jump in innings is a concern. I like the way he finished the year and his ability to throw strikes especially first pitch strikes. I like that he pitch well and then he faced some adversity, but he was able to right the ship at the end of the year. With a slight bump in command, his K’s should rise. His wins won’t be strong based on the Diamondbacks present team structure. I think he improves off of last season.
53-Ervin Santana (LAA) – He was an interesting arm after his break out 2008 season. He had arm problems before the 2009 season which helped some owners avoid a huge step backwards. He never had surgery to fix his sore elbow. He was discounted last season, but the end results leaves you wondering if he has an underlying problem. His BB/9 rate (3.0) was in line with career average. He had elite command in 2008 and his BB/9 rate (1.9) led to a career high K/9 rate (8.8). Last year his K/9 rate (6.8) declined for the second year in row. His command is still solid against RH batters (3.2), but again a huge step off his 2008 season (6.6). His command against LH batters (1.80) is declining and well off his peak 2008 season of 3.5. After the All Star break, his K rate (6.2) declined and his BB rate (3.3) rose. His GB rate (35.2) declined while his LD rate (22.1) spiked. He threw 63 % strikes (66 % in 2008) and 63 % first pitch strikes (66 % in 2008). Last year he gave up 36 steals (82 % success rate). His average fastball was 92.5 compared to 94.4 in 2008. He threw the most slider of his career (36.9 % of the time). He throws a changeup very low % of the time (4.9). The 2009 elbow injury bothers me. I’d liked to see him develop a third pitch and take some pressure off his arm by throw his slider so much. He is fairly prices in drafts this year, but I might have a tough time pulling the trigger. Maybe with some more velocity on his fastball and no negative news in spring training, I might be willing to give him a ride. For now, I’m thinking he breaks down this year. He’ll start the year at age 28.
54-Ted Lilly (LAD) – He’s value has risen as his command improves. His BB/9 rate (2.0) was the second best of his career and it improved once he arrived in LA (1.8). His K/9 rate (7.7) has been pretty consistent in his career. He had more success with the Dodgers (9.0). The biggest problem with him is homeruns allowed (1.5 in 2010 and 1.4 in his career). He had great command against LH batters (9.33 K:BB), but they hit .301 against him and .556 slugging % (9 HR’s in 32.2 innings). He’s a fly ball pitcher and his FB rate (52.6 %) was a career high. His overall strikes % and his first pitch strike % were career highs (69 and 68). He allowed 20 steals in 21 chances. The biggest change in his game the last two years is his slider. His overall velocity declined across the boards last year. He’ll start the year at age 35. I think he is going earlier than I’m willing to pull the trigger. He has a long resume and the homeruns allowed tend to turn me off. He has developed better command which is a plus. As his fast ball declines, he’s turning into Jamie Moyer with heat (86.7 fastball). He certainly can have some success, but his ceiling is limited.
55-Gio Gonzalez (OAK) – He made a nice step forward in 2010, but his command still needs a lot of work. His BB/9 rate (4.1) improved a full walk from his 2009 season. It almost matched his minor league career rate (4.05). His K/9 rate (7.7) was solid, but it was more than 2 K’s less than his 2009 season. He struck out 10.29 batters per nine innings in his minor league career. Both RH and LH batters had a tough time hitting him. His GB rate (49.3 %) is rising. He threw 60 % strikes and 53 % first pitch strikes. His overall strikes % improved from 59 % in 2009. He made a nice improvement in his HR/9 rate (0.70 in 2010 and 1.3 in 2009). He relies on two pitches (avg. fastball – 91.8 and a curveball) plus he throws an occasional change. He did show better improvement after the All Star break (2.59) and he demonstrated his upside in August when he had his best command of the year (1.98 with 2.85 K:BB rate). He’ll start the year at age 25. He has talent for sure. The only thing standing in his way is ability to throw strikes. With a jump in first strikes %, he could make another step forward.
56-Johnny Cueto (Cin) – He’s young player with an improving arm. He hasn’t developed as fast as fantasy owners have expected. He’s made steady improvement the past two years with the exception of a declining K/9 rate (6.7). His BB rate (2.7) was nice to see. His career minor league BB/9 rate was 2.1. I expect him to continue to improve. His minor league K/9 rate (9.2) shows more upside. He has struggled with HR’s early in his career. He finally got that number in line last season (0.9 per 9). He likes to pitch inside which leads to hit batters (37 in his career). His command has improved against LH batters in his career (1.60 in 2008, 1.78 in 2009, and 2.56 in 2010), but it has declined vs. RH batters (3.56, 2.90, and 2.33). He threw 62 % strikes which was decline from his rookie season. He threw 55 % first pitch strikes which was a further step back from his 2008 season (59 %). He does good job shutting down the running game (44 % success rate in his career). In his first two years, he threw close to 90 % fastballs and sliders. Last year he added a cutter (8.2 %) and he threw his changeup (10 %) the most of his career. His fastball (93,2) is solid. He needs to trust his secondary pitches more. For him to make a step forward, he needs to throw more first pitch strikes and he needs to show better command against RH batters. He’ll start the year at age 25. I only see a small sign of growth which leads me to believe he may only make a small step forward in 2011. He has enough talent to surprise. I don’t think he is a must own, but he has the kind of skill set you want to gamble on.
57-Homer Bailey (CIN) – He was a disappointment overall in 2010, but he made a couple of steps in the right direction. His BB/9 rate (3.3) was career best. His K/9 rate (8.3) was also a career high. He made strides in his command against RH and LH batters. He threw 64 % strikes and 60 % (career high) first pitch strikes. His pitches per batter is high (4.15) and that number has risen the past two years. He had a strained shoulder in May that landed him on the DL for two months. There was no structural damage. He had more velocity in 2009 on his fastball (94.4), but it looked like it was back at the end of the year. His 2010 average fastball was 92.8. In 2009, he picked up a split finger fastball and he ditched his changeup. He also started throwing a slider more. He’s an interesting pitcher this year. I can’t trust that he will throw plus innings, but I expect him to make a huge step forward if his shoulder holds up. He showed his talent in September (3.44 ERA and 1.29 whip with 41 K’s in 34 innings). If I hear any negative news in spring training, all bets are off.
58-Scott Baker (MIN) – I haven’t been a huge Baker fan in the past. He has a nice arm, but he tends to get himself in trouble with homeruns. After a career year in 2008, his numbers have taken a step back the past two years. His BB/9 rate (2.3) has remained strong and his K/9 rate (7.8) was career high. His HR/9 rate (1.2) is still too high. His command has been pretty consistent against RH and LH batters the past three years. He did better at Target Field last season (3.86 ERA and 1.309 whip). He gave up 15 homeruns on the road in 84 innings (1.6). His GB rate (35.6) is rising and it was a career high. He threw 68 % strikes and 63 % first pitch strikes. Both are excellent numbers. His fastball (91.4) has increased velocity three years in row. It looks like his slider was better in 2008. He throws a slider, curve, and changeup. He’ll start the year at age 29. In 2011, his value is lower than it has been the past two years. He throws a high % of strikes. He did have two cortisone shots in his right elbow which later led to minor elbow surgery in October. It could have been the reason his slider has declined the past two years. The elbow is a concern and it is something to keep an eye on in spring training. I think he improves this year if the elbow is a 100 %.
59-Jaime Garcia (STL) – His first stint in the majors ended with TJ surgery in 2008. After missing most of 2009 (37.2 innings), he pitched great in 2010. He had moments where he struggled with his command (6 starts with 4 walks or more). His BB/9 rate (3.5) was higher than his minor league resume (3.0). His K/9 rate (7.5) was solid. He has excellent command against LH batters (3.70 K:BB rate) and they had a tough time hitting him (.211). He needs to work on his command against RH batters (1.76). He induced a ton of ground balls (55.9 %). He threw 63 % strikes and 54 % first pitch strikes. His fastball is in the 90 range. His cutter was his second best pitch and he showed more confidence in his changeup. He has upside for sure. There is some concern with the huge job in work load. He’ll start the year at age 24. He needs to improve his first strike % especially against RH batters. He should be an asset to your pitching staff. He will win games and his K’s should rise with a larger work load in 2011.
60-Gavin Floyd (CHI) – The last two years he had been brutal the first two months of the year (5.52 ERA and 6.68 in 2009 and 6.49 and 5.63 in 2010). In both seasons, he pitched very well for two to three months to correct his numbers. Last year he had a shoulder problem late in the year. It led to four bad starts in his last 7 games (6.06 ERA and 1.76 whip). He had a stretch where his ERA improved for 12 straight starts (1.41 ERA and 0.95 whip). He struggled with RH batters last year (.292) His command against them has declined (3.23 K:BB in 2008, 2.83 in 2009, and 2.22 in 2010), but his command is improving against LH batters (1.39 in 2008, 2.71, in 2009, and 2.94 in 2010). He threw 62 % strikes and 60 % first pitch strikes. Last year he had his highest GB rate (49.9 %) in his career. His AFB (92.4) was the highest of his career. He throws a slider and curveball a high % of time. He adds in an occasional changeup. In 2008, he gave up 37 steals. Last year he cut that total down to 7. When the season ended, they looked at his shoulder and they saw no structural damage. It something you have to keep an eye in spring training. Floyd has had some real nice stretches over the past couple of years. He has the ability to be a top three starter, but his shoulder adds risk which will push him his value down a couple of rounds.
61-Brett Myers (HOU) – He was a tough player to trust in 2010. He was coming off an injury and two bad years. His HR/9 rate (2.3) was brutal in 2009. Even his career HR/9 rate (1.3) is too high. He was able to regain his form after suffering a strained back muscle in 2009. He has had big swings in innings the past four years (68.2, 190, 70.2, and 223.2). When he was at his best in 2005 and 2006, he had better command against RH batters (4.25 K:BB in 2005 and 5.15 in 2006). Last year he shown improvement against LH batters (2.60 K:BB), but his K:BB rate (2.83) vs. RH batters is way off his best years. His LD rate (16 %) was his career best. He threw 64 % strikes which was in line with his 2005 and 2006 seasons. He threw 59 % first pitch strikes which was below his career average (61 %). His GB rate (48.7 %) is rising, but I don’t think his LD rate is repeatable. His fastball is declining (89.3). His slider % made a huge jump in 2010 (27.9 %). He still has a very good curveball. I think he is a player to avoid in 2011. I don’t like the loss of velocity added to the big swing in innings. I’m sure he will be drafted at full price. If you add in his previous HR rate, you are asking for trouble. I like that he had success by throwing a slider more, but it could also lead to an injury. He’ll start the year at age 30. He’ll have a tough time winning games for Houston.
62-James Shields (TB) – He’s a pitcher that is moving in the wrong direction. His HR/9 rate (1.5) is rising and it is in a very bad area. His BB/9 rate (2.3) is very good, but it has decline the past three years. His K/9 rate (8.3) was a career high. His command against RH batter was elite in 2007 (1.35). It has taken a step back in 2010 (2.0), but it shouldn’t be that much of a problem. He was just easier to hit. His LOB % (68.4 %) was low, but it is expected with the number of runners he put on base. The biggest change in his skill set is the number of line drives against him. In his best years, he was in the 17 % range. The last two years he hasn’t fooled anyone. His LD rate (22 %) was a career high. His FB rate isn’t rising so it tells me they are hitting some of those line drives over the fence. He threw 66 % strikes and 62 % first pitch strikes. His fastball velocity (91.5) was a career high. He even threw his curveball and changeup slightly faster. Maybe his arm has a problem affecting his command and his pitchers don’t have any life in the strike zone. He looks like a beaten pitcher that lack confidence. He can’t have success without elite command. There’s a chance he improves this year. He won’t throw harder and I can’t see him adding another pitch. The only positive sign is the rise in K’s and I can’t see him repeating that. I don’t care how far he falls. He is player I will avoid in 2011. He’ll start the year at age 30.
63-Jhoulys Chacin (COL) – He pitched well in his first season in the majors. He has an excellent K/9 rate (9.0), but his BB/9 rate (4.0) needs some work. In the minors, he had better command with less K’s (2.7 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9). He needs to work on his command against LH batters (1.67 K:BB). He throws a high % of ground ball (46.6) which is good sign in Colorado. He threw 60 % strikes and 55 % first pitch strikes. He throws a slider, curveball, and changeup. His changeup is his second best pitch. He had some success in the majors and he had better command in the minors. He may take some lumps this year, but he is in position to be a nice upside arm. He needs to do a better job throwing strikes. If he doesn’t improve in this area, he may take a small step back this year.
64-Anibal Sanchez (FLA) – He put together a nice season. His BB/9 rate (3.2) showed some growth and it was a career best. His K/9 rate (7.2) was lower than his last two years, but both of those season were short innings. He has a scatter resume. He pitched well for a half of a year in 2006 before struggling with a shoulder injury in 2007. He had surgery to repair a torn labrum. It took him a couple of year to regain his form. He also lost 30 pounds in the winter of 2009/2010 which helped him last season. His command against LH batters improved last season (1.95 K:BB). He threw 64 % strikes and 58 % first pitch strikes. Both numbers were career highs by 2 % and it shows growth. He has allowed base runners to steal bases at 88 % rate for his career. His average fastball (91.3) was the highest of his career. He threw the most sliders (25.2) of his career. The last two years he’s been using his changeup more. For his career, he has shown flashes of talent. He also has some risk due the injury history. He’s at the right age where he should continue to get better. The only other concern is the jump in innings from 2009 (112 – 195). It may be more of a concern with his shoulder history. He should have more upside in 2011.
65-Mike Minor (ATL) – He pitched well in his first four major league starts (3.91 ERA and 1.35 whip with 26 K’s in 23 innings. He had good command against both RH and LH batters to start his career, but they both sides hit him hard. His BB/9 rate (2.4) was better than his minor league resume (3.2). His K/9 rate (9.5) was slightly below his minor league rate (10.9). He struggled with HR’s (1.3 per 9). He threw 64 % strikes and 58 % first pitch strikes. His LOB % (65.4) was low. He allowed a high % of FB’s (47.6). His average fastball was 90.9. He second best pitch is his changeup. I didn’t like that they compared his stuff to Jeremy Sowers in the Baseball America’s Prospect book. He has some upside and his K rate in the minors looks strong. He has a short resume all around. He threw 163 innings last year. He has a chance to throw 200 this year if he can handle the work load. He’ll start the year at age 23.
66-Jair Jurrjens (ATL) – After two solid seasons, he struggled with injuries in 2010. He had a shoulder injury in February and a hamstring injury in May. His season ended with a small meniscus tear in his right knee. His BB rate (3.2) was in line with his past three season. His K rate (6.7) was a career best. He has poor command against LH batters (1.38 in his career and 1.28 in 2010). After having a high strand rate in 2009, his LOB % (69.3) was slightly below average last year. He’s had a declining GB rate (39.9) the past two years. He threw 64 % strikes and 60 % first strikes. His first strikes % was slightly lower than his past two years. He has made progress holding runners on base (28 for 31 in 2008 – 6 for 9 in 2010). He’s almost the identical pitcher the four years in the majors. He’s a slider and changeup pitcher. His changeup is his second best pitch. He has a long enough resume to expect a bounce back year. He can’t make another forward until he figures out LH batters. He may need to get volume of innings to help in K’s. His ceiling won’t be high, but he will make a nice SP5 in the NFBC. His knee has to be 100 % before investing.
67-Daisuke Matsuzaka (BOS) – He’s taken a couple of steps back since his 18-3 2008 season. His BB/9 rate(4.3) is poor, but it has improved the past two years. He’s been tough to hit his career (.244). He’s really struggled with his command against LH batters the past three year (1.31, 1.33, and 1.40). His K/9 rate (7.8) has decline every year in the majors. Last year he had neck, forearm, and back problems. His LOB % (67.2) was a little low. He threw 63 % strikes which was his second highest total in the majors. He threw 57 % first pitch strikes. It was below his best two years (61 and 60). He gave up 25 steals (78 % success rate). His FB rate (45.5) was a career high. His average fastball (92) was the highest in his career. He has settled into a cutter/slider pitcher which is an interesting combo. He’s pretty much bagged his curveball and split finger pitch. His command is a problem. He had more success in that area in Japan so maybe there is some upside there. He has had success winning games in his career (46-27) and Boston will score runs this year. He needs to find way to throw more strikes against LH batters. He has had health problem two years in row. He is being discounted in drafts. If you can handle the whip risk, he should help enough in the other areas. I think he has a bounce back year.
68-Travis Wood (CIN) – He won round one of the battle for the fifth starter job in the rotation. Mike Leake won the job out of spring training, but Wood was the better arm when the season ended. His BB/9 rate (2.3) was very good to start his career, but it was slightly better than his last couple of season in the minors. His K/9 rate (7.5) was solid. His minor league K/9 rate (8.4) shows some upside. He had excellent command against RH batters (3.60). He dominated LH batters in 66 at bats (.136). His LOB % (68.4) was better than average. He threw 65 % strikes and 58 % first pitch strikes. He’s a fly ball pitcher (48.1 %), but he his HR rate has been in line in his minor league career. Last year his average fastball was 89.9. His cutter was his second pitch followed by a changeup. He mixes in a slider and curveball. He’s not a lock to be in the rotation, but he did enough to have the inside track. I’m sure Mike Leake will improve this year. He throws strikes and he had success against RH batters which leads me to believe he will be a late upside arm in 2011.
69-Jorge De La Rosa (COL) – To believe or not to believe is the question with De La Rosa. He had a breakthrough season in 2009. He took a slight step back in 2010. He missed two plus months with a finger injury. His BB/9 rate (4.1) is still too high. His K/9 rate (8.4) declined after setting a career high. His command against RH batters (1.95) has slightly improved the past two years. The most growth has happened against LH batters (.204 in 2009 and .206 in 2010). He struggled with HR’s (1.2) in the second half of the year, but his GB rate (52.3) was a career high. He threw 61 % strikes and 57 % first pitch strikes. His average fastball (93.4) is solid. He had the most confidence in his changeup in his career (27 %). In the three years in Colorado, he has developed his slider. His command is far from elite, but he is getting tougher to hit. If he can throw more strikes, he can make another step forward. He’ll start the year at age 30. His resume suggests trouble, but it is showing signs of growth. I wouldn’t race someone to buy him, but he has some upside as a SP5 with the right team structure.
70-Carlos Zambrano (CHC) – It’s hard to complain when you have 9 straight seasons with an ERA under 4.00. I’m sure the Cubs would love to unload his contact. He was in trouble a couple of times last year one of which led to a suspension. When he returned to the rotation, he regained his form. He went 8-0 in his last 11 starts with a 1.59 ERA and 1.25 whip. As good as it looks, his BB rate (5.27) suggest trouble down the road. For the year, his BB/9 rate (4.8) is moving in the wrong direction. His K/9 rate (8.1) was in line with 2009 and it remains good. His command is brutal against LH batters (1.41 K:BB rate in 2010 and 1.35 for his career). For almost a decade, he hasn’t been able to throw strikes to LH hitters. His GB rate has steadily declined since 2003. He threw 59 % strikes and 53 % first pitch strikes. Both numbers are below his career averages and below the major average. All his pitches decline in velocity. His average fastball (90.1) was the lowest of his career. His second pitch is now a cutter. Someone might see his 3.33 ERA and his last two month and think he has righted the ship. I don’t. I think he is going in the wrong direction. He might be a gamble as a SP4, but he will be ranked a lot higher. I would avoid him in 2011 unless he comes into camp in the best shape of his career and he might draw a maybe at the right price.
71-CJ Wilson (TEX) – He made a nice transition from the bullpen to the rotation. His innings jumped from 73.2 to 228.1. That’s a huge bump in his workload in one year. He dominated LH hitting (.144). He has success against RH batters (.236), but he had a bad BB/9 rate (4.59) against them. His K/9 rate (7.5) was lower than when he was a relief pitcher. His BB/9 rate (4.1) is poor. His LD rate (16 %) was the lowest of his career allowed. He threw 60 % strikes and 54 % first pitch strikes. Both numbers are below the major league average. He struggled a bit with base stealers (28 steals allowed in 39 attempts). In the bullpen, he was a fastball/slider pitcher with an occasional change. He threw a cutter in 2009. He used the pitch a lot more as a starter (18.5 %) plus he threw more changeups. He has some talent and I’ve seen a few relievers have success after pitching in the bullpen. The bump in inning is a concern along with the high walk rate against RH batters. I think he has some risk and I would avoid him this season.
72-Javier Vazquez (FLA) – He was a disaster in New York. It kind of serves them right after he failed the first time. New York should have known to stay away. His BB/9 right (3.7) was his worst of his career which led to a huge spike in his HR/9 rate (1.8). His K/9 rate (6.9) was the lowest in a decade. When your command against LH batters drops from 4.31 to 1.34 in one season, you know something is going on. Last year he struggled early. He pitched well for two month before falling on his face to end the year. He allowed a 47 % FB rate in 2010 which was a career high. It was a season after he had his second lowest year in the majors 34.8 %. He threw 63 % strikes and 61 % first pitch strikes. In 2009, he threw 67 % strikes and 67 % first pitch strikes. He lost velocity off his fastball (88.7). It was 2 ½ MPH lower than his previous season. Maybe he was hurt or maybe his mechanics were off causing a decline in his velocity. I know many are expecting bounce back year with the move to Florida, but I’d have to know his fastball is back in line with his previous season before I invest. He may bounce back or he could be all done. I’ll be watching his report on his velocity in spring training.
73-Jonathan Niese (NYM) – For those that didn’t follow his 2010 season, they will see a different pitcher. He posted a mediocre ERA and poor whip, but there was a time during the season where he was an asset. His BB/9 rate (3.2) was in line with his minor league resume. His K/9 rate (7.7) was solid and just below his minor league rate (8.2). On August 20, he had a 3.33 ERA and 1.35 whip. From that point on, he struggled (1-6 with a 8.61 ERA and 1.97 whip). In the summer, he had 13 of 15 starts allowing 3 runs or less. It’s too bad he’ll have to be the ace of the Mets staff with Johan Santana on the DL. He threw 64 % strikes and 60 % first pitch strikes. He’s allowed one steal in 6 attempts in his major league career. He doesn’t have a big fastball (89.7) and his cutter has turned into his second best pitch. He did enough last season where you would think he improve this season. He needs to improve on his command to make the next step. I expect his ERA to be under 4.00, but his whip may take another year to get under 1.30.
74-Jordan Zimmermann (WAS) – He made a quick recovery from TJ surgery in 2009. He took slow steps, but he made it back to the majors. His HR/9 rate (2.30) was very high in limited innings. His BB/9 rate (2.9) was in line with his previous season. His K/9 rate (7.8) was strong, but it was lower than his rookie season. For the year, he pitched 77 innings. The Nationals aren’t ready to win so I can’t expect his innings total to be high in 2011. I’m thinking 150 this year. He struggled with his command against LH batters (1.5 K:BB). His minor league BB/9 rate (2.8) was in line with his first two years. His minor league K/9 rate (9.4) shows more upside. He threw 64 % strikes and 62 % first strikes. Both numbers were 3 % lower than his previous season. His average fastball (92.3) almost matched his rookie season (93.2) after TJ surgery. He has plenty of upside. I just have to lower my expectations based on the strength of Washington and his volume of innings this year. He will be on fantasy player’s radar and I wouldn’t overpay. He’ll turn 25 in May.
75-Brett Cecil (TOR) – He started the season winning 7 of 10 starts and he repeated that pattern to end the year. In between, he had one real bad stretch in June (3 starts – 9.10 ERA and 1.85 whip). Even though he won games in September, he had his worst month (6.92 ERA and 1.96). His BB/9 rate (2.8) was in line with his minor league resume. His K/9 rate (6.1) needs some work. His minor league rate was 9.0 so it gives him a chance to improve. He pitched well against LH batters (.224 with 6.17 K:BB rate). He needs to improve his command against RH hitters (1.67). He threw 64 % strikes and 57 % first pitch strikes. In 2010, he developed more confidence in his changeup. He threw it 23.4 % of the time. His fastball sits in the 90 range and he relies on a slider as his third pitch. He’ll start the year at age 25. He pitched really well in the division (12 wins – 10 against Boston, New York, and Tampa). All and all it was a very good year. He may not repeat the wins, but he should improve across the board. My one concern is his size. He’s 6’2” 235 Lbs. If he added more weight, it may be a problem.
A Look Back
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TOXIC ASSETS
- Posts: 764
- Joined: Sat Feb 07, 2009 6:00 pm
A Look Back
Excellent work, this is why you are one of the best in the business!
However... Let's re-rank the pitchers as follows:
1. Roy Halladay
2. CC Sabathia
3. List continues from here.
However... Let's re-rank the pitchers as follows:
1. Roy Halladay
2. CC Sabathia
3. List continues from here.
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Edwards Kings
- Posts: 5909
- Joined: Sun Mar 14, 2004 6:00 pm
- Location: Duluth, Georgia
A Look Back
Originally posted by TOXIC ASSETS:
Excellent work, this is why you are one of the best in the business!
However... Let's re-rank the pitchers as follows:
1. Roy Halladay
2. CC Sabathia
3. List continues from here. No Shields? Better ERA, better WHIP, more K's than those other two no-names?
Excellent work, this is why you are one of the best in the business!
However... Let's re-rank the pitchers as follows:
1. Roy Halladay
2. CC Sabathia
3. List continues from here. No Shields? Better ERA, better WHIP, more K's than those other two no-names?
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer
Charles Krauthammer
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Hells Satans
- Posts: 1180
- Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2010 6:00 pm
A Look Back
Love it. Great stuff. Always like looking back. For comparison's sake, here were my Top 100 pitchers (closers included) based on the projections I did. Missed badly on many (why was I so scared of Zimmerman's IP Limit?), but was very high on Weaver and got him in most leagues, which has worked out well. Was also very down on Brewers SP because of the horrific defense. And I hate you Ted Lilly.
1 Roy Halladay PHI SP 237 19 0 205 2.83 1.05 32 32
2 Tim Lincecum SF SP 216 17 0 235 3.02 1.15 28 28
3 Felix Hernandez SEA SP 237 15 0 216 2.88 1.11 27 27
4 Jon Lester BOS SP 212 18 0 221 3.20 1.20 25 25
5 Cliff Lee PHI SP 220 16 0 198 3.10 1.08 25 25
6 Jered Weaver ANA SP 220 16 0 213 3.38 1.10 25 25
7 Justin Verlander DET SP 225 17 0 215 3.45 1.19 23 23
8 C.C. Sabathia NYY SP 232 19 0 193 3.53 1.19 22 22
9 Cole Hamels PHI SP 210 16 0 205 3.36 1.15 22 22
10 Ubaldo Jimenez COL SP 218 17 0 204 3.39 1.22 21 21
11 Mat Latos SD SP 197 15 0 197 3.17 1.14 21 21
12 Josh Johnson FLA SP 192 15 0 186 3.12 1.15 19 19
13 Dan Haren ANA SP 218 15 0 191 3.49 1.14 19 19
14 Clayton Kershaw LA SP 205 15 0 205 3.21 1.23 19 19
15 David Price TB SP 210 16 0 194 3.41 1.24 18 18
16 Matt Cain SF SP 218 14 0 177 3.34 1.17 16 16
17 Max Scherzer DET SP 209 14 0 207 3.61 1.23 16 16
18 Colby Lewis TEX SP 200 16 0 187 3.74 1.20 16 16
19 Francisco Liriano MIN SP 191 15 0 195 3.53 1.23 16 16
20 Roy Oswalt PHI SP 205 15 0 169 3.38 1.18 16 16
21 Chris Carpenter STL SP 210 15 0 156 3.23 1.17 15 15
22 Tommy Hanson ATL SP 197 14 0 182 3.43 1.19 15 15
23 Brandon Morrow TOR SP 186 14 0 211 3.71 1.27 15 15
24 Ted Lilly LA SP 193 14 0 167 3.58 1.14 14 14
25 Hiroki Kuroda LA SP 193 14 0 159 3.38 1.15 14 14
26 Ricky Nolasco FLA SP 195 14 0 186 3.85 1.19 14 14
27 Chad Billingsley LA SP 205 14 0 184 3.57 1.27 12 12
28 Yovani Gallardo MLW SP 198 13 0 207 3.69 1.30 12 12
29 Daniel Hudson ARZ SP 189 13 0 174 3.64 1.20 12 12
30 Zack Greinke MLW SP 183 13 0 171 3.48 1.21 12 12
31 Ryan Dempster CHC SP 212 14 0 198 3.88 1.30 12 12
32 Shaun Marcum MLW SP 192 13 0 171 3.66 1.20 11 11
33 James Shields TB SP 210 14 0 175 3.86 1.23 11 11
34 Wandy Rodriguez HOU SP 206 13 0 187 3.67 1.27 11 11
35 Josh Beckett BOS SP 198 15 0 178 3.89 1.27 11 11
36 Brett Anderson OAK SP 180 14 0 146 3.39 1.18 11 11
37 Jeremy Hellickson TB SP 180 13 0 170 3.68 1.20 11 11
38 Philip Hughes NYY SP 192 15 0 168 4.04 1.22 11 11
39 Heath Bell SD CL 65 5 37 74 2.77 1.17 11 11
40 Jonathan Papelbon BOS CL 65 4 40 76 3.32 1.17 10 10
41 Jaime Garcia STL SP 188 14 0 159 3.36 1.29 10 10
42 F.Rodriguez NYM CL 73 5 33 80 2.71 1.19 9 9
43 J.J. Putz ARZ CL 58 5 37 71 3.26 1.14 9 9
44 Carlos Marmol CHC CL 73 2 38 108 3.58 1.29 9 9
45 Scott Baker MIN SP 187 14 0 158 3.85 1.23 9 9
46 Gio Gonzalez OAK SP 190 14 0 186 3.81 1.35 9 9
47 Madison Bumgarner SF SP 189 13 0 149 3.47 1.22 9 9
48 Jake Peavy CWS SP 188 13 0 171 3.80 1.26 9 9
49 Brian Wilson SF CL 65 3 38 75 2.63 1.22 9 9
50 Clay Buchholz BOS SP 190 15 0 152 3.61 1.31 8 8
51 Tim Hudson ATL SP 210 15 0 138 3.57 1.28 8 8
52 Mike Minor ATL SP 183 12 0 181 4.04 1.25 8 8
53 Joakim Soria KC CL 58 2 40 64 2.64 1.14 8 8
54 Edinson Volquez CIN SP 184 14 0 190 4.02 1.38 8 8
55 Jonathon Niese NYM SP 193 13 0 163 3.74 1.28 8 8
56 Matt Thornton CWS CL 65 6 27 80 2.91 1.08 8 8
57 Gavin Floyd CWS SP 203 14 0 165 3.90 1.31 7 7
58 Brett Myers HOU SP 210 13 0 166 3.88 1.29 7 7
59 Craig Kimbrel ATL CL 73 7 27 88 2.71 1.37 7 7
60 Neftali Feliz TEX CL 65 4 35 64 3.32 1.12 7 7
61 Jose Valverde DET CL 73 4 35 75 3.45 1.25 7 7
62 C.J. Wilson TEX SP 195 14 0 167 3.88 1.35 7 7
63 Brian Matusz BAL SP 188 12 0 163 3.99 1.24 7 7
64 Matt Garza CHC SP 204 12 0 163 3.87 1.27 6 6
65 I.Kennedy ARZ SP 203 11 0 174 3.94 1.27 6 6
66 Ricky Romero TOR SP 205 14 0 166 3.93 1.35 6 6
67 Michael Pineda SEA SP 170 10 0 162 3.53 1.24 6 6
68 Edwin Jackson CWS SP 207 13 0 182 4.11 1.35 6 6
69 Jonathan Sanchez SF SP 183 11 0 189 3.91 1.34 6 6
70 Mariano Rivera NYY CL 58 3 41 39 3.26 1.12 6 6
71 John Danks CWS SP 210 14 0 161 4.06 1.33 6 6
72 Frank Francisco TOR CL 58 3 35 66 3.26 1.16 5 5
73 Jhoulys Chacin COL SP 178 12 0 166 3.78 1.33 5 5
74 Ervin Santana ANA SP 205 14 0 157 4.10 1.32 5 5
75 Trevor Cahill OAK SP 200 14 0 127 3.76 1.27 5 5
76 Erik Bedard SEA SP 160 10 0 155 3.51 1.25 5 5
77 Johnny Cueto CIN SP 192 13 0 149 4.04 1.29 4 4
78 Javier Vazquez FLA SP 174 12 0 151 3.99 1.27 4 4
79 Huston Street COL CL 58 5 30 61 3.57 1.12 4 4
80 John Lackey BOS SP 200 14 0 149 4.14 1.33 4 4
81 Bronson Arroyo CIN SP 210 15 0 128 4.18 1.29 4 4
82 John Axford MLW CL 58 6 28 67 3.26 1.31 4 4
83 Derek Lowe ATL SP 197 14 0 136 4.01 1.32 3 3
84 Jorge De La Rosa COL SP 181 13 0 171 4.26 1.39 3 3
85 Anibal Sanchez FLA SP 188 12 0 157 3.96 1.35 3 3
86 Jordan Zimmermann WAS SP 167 10 0 150 3.77 1.27 3 3
87 Derek Holland TEX SP 180 12 0 152 4.21 1.31 2 2
88 Dallas Braden OAK SP 189 12 0 122 3.84 1.26 2 2
89 Alexi Ogando TEX CL 73 3 28 71 3.33 1.21 2 2
90 Kyle McClellan STL SP 164 12 0 126 3.78 1.28 2 2
91 Leo Nunez FLA CL 73 4 29 67 3.58 1.27 2 2
92 Aaron Harang SD SP 180 11 0 148 3.89 1.32 2 2
93 Jair Jurrjens ATL SP 193 12 0 144 3.97 1.33 2 2
94 Randy Wolf MLW SP 203 12 0 142 4.03 1.32 2 2
95 Carl Pavano MIN SP 200 13 0 120 4.13 1.26 2 2
96 Joel Hanrahan PIT CL 73 4 23 89 3.45 1.26 2 2
97 Jonathan Broxton LA CL 65 5 24 77 3.60 1.26 1 1
98 Joe Blanton PHI SP 195 12 0 152 4.21 1.34 1 1
99 Wade Davis TB SP 181 13 0 137 4.13 1.34 1 1
100 Travis Wood CIN SP 174 11 0 137 4.08 1.27 1 1
1 Roy Halladay PHI SP 237 19 0 205 2.83 1.05 32 32
2 Tim Lincecum SF SP 216 17 0 235 3.02 1.15 28 28
3 Felix Hernandez SEA SP 237 15 0 216 2.88 1.11 27 27
4 Jon Lester BOS SP 212 18 0 221 3.20 1.20 25 25
5 Cliff Lee PHI SP 220 16 0 198 3.10 1.08 25 25
6 Jered Weaver ANA SP 220 16 0 213 3.38 1.10 25 25
7 Justin Verlander DET SP 225 17 0 215 3.45 1.19 23 23
8 C.C. Sabathia NYY SP 232 19 0 193 3.53 1.19 22 22
9 Cole Hamels PHI SP 210 16 0 205 3.36 1.15 22 22
10 Ubaldo Jimenez COL SP 218 17 0 204 3.39 1.22 21 21
11 Mat Latos SD SP 197 15 0 197 3.17 1.14 21 21
12 Josh Johnson FLA SP 192 15 0 186 3.12 1.15 19 19
13 Dan Haren ANA SP 218 15 0 191 3.49 1.14 19 19
14 Clayton Kershaw LA SP 205 15 0 205 3.21 1.23 19 19
15 David Price TB SP 210 16 0 194 3.41 1.24 18 18
16 Matt Cain SF SP 218 14 0 177 3.34 1.17 16 16
17 Max Scherzer DET SP 209 14 0 207 3.61 1.23 16 16
18 Colby Lewis TEX SP 200 16 0 187 3.74 1.20 16 16
19 Francisco Liriano MIN SP 191 15 0 195 3.53 1.23 16 16
20 Roy Oswalt PHI SP 205 15 0 169 3.38 1.18 16 16
21 Chris Carpenter STL SP 210 15 0 156 3.23 1.17 15 15
22 Tommy Hanson ATL SP 197 14 0 182 3.43 1.19 15 15
23 Brandon Morrow TOR SP 186 14 0 211 3.71 1.27 15 15
24 Ted Lilly LA SP 193 14 0 167 3.58 1.14 14 14
25 Hiroki Kuroda LA SP 193 14 0 159 3.38 1.15 14 14
26 Ricky Nolasco FLA SP 195 14 0 186 3.85 1.19 14 14
27 Chad Billingsley LA SP 205 14 0 184 3.57 1.27 12 12
28 Yovani Gallardo MLW SP 198 13 0 207 3.69 1.30 12 12
29 Daniel Hudson ARZ SP 189 13 0 174 3.64 1.20 12 12
30 Zack Greinke MLW SP 183 13 0 171 3.48 1.21 12 12
31 Ryan Dempster CHC SP 212 14 0 198 3.88 1.30 12 12
32 Shaun Marcum MLW SP 192 13 0 171 3.66 1.20 11 11
33 James Shields TB SP 210 14 0 175 3.86 1.23 11 11
34 Wandy Rodriguez HOU SP 206 13 0 187 3.67 1.27 11 11
35 Josh Beckett BOS SP 198 15 0 178 3.89 1.27 11 11
36 Brett Anderson OAK SP 180 14 0 146 3.39 1.18 11 11
37 Jeremy Hellickson TB SP 180 13 0 170 3.68 1.20 11 11
38 Philip Hughes NYY SP 192 15 0 168 4.04 1.22 11 11
39 Heath Bell SD CL 65 5 37 74 2.77 1.17 11 11
40 Jonathan Papelbon BOS CL 65 4 40 76 3.32 1.17 10 10
41 Jaime Garcia STL SP 188 14 0 159 3.36 1.29 10 10
42 F.Rodriguez NYM CL 73 5 33 80 2.71 1.19 9 9
43 J.J. Putz ARZ CL 58 5 37 71 3.26 1.14 9 9
44 Carlos Marmol CHC CL 73 2 38 108 3.58 1.29 9 9
45 Scott Baker MIN SP 187 14 0 158 3.85 1.23 9 9
46 Gio Gonzalez OAK SP 190 14 0 186 3.81 1.35 9 9
47 Madison Bumgarner SF SP 189 13 0 149 3.47 1.22 9 9
48 Jake Peavy CWS SP 188 13 0 171 3.80 1.26 9 9
49 Brian Wilson SF CL 65 3 38 75 2.63 1.22 9 9
50 Clay Buchholz BOS SP 190 15 0 152 3.61 1.31 8 8
51 Tim Hudson ATL SP 210 15 0 138 3.57 1.28 8 8
52 Mike Minor ATL SP 183 12 0 181 4.04 1.25 8 8
53 Joakim Soria KC CL 58 2 40 64 2.64 1.14 8 8
54 Edinson Volquez CIN SP 184 14 0 190 4.02 1.38 8 8
55 Jonathon Niese NYM SP 193 13 0 163 3.74 1.28 8 8
56 Matt Thornton CWS CL 65 6 27 80 2.91 1.08 8 8
57 Gavin Floyd CWS SP 203 14 0 165 3.90 1.31 7 7
58 Brett Myers HOU SP 210 13 0 166 3.88 1.29 7 7
59 Craig Kimbrel ATL CL 73 7 27 88 2.71 1.37 7 7
60 Neftali Feliz TEX CL 65 4 35 64 3.32 1.12 7 7
61 Jose Valverde DET CL 73 4 35 75 3.45 1.25 7 7
62 C.J. Wilson TEX SP 195 14 0 167 3.88 1.35 7 7
63 Brian Matusz BAL SP 188 12 0 163 3.99 1.24 7 7
64 Matt Garza CHC SP 204 12 0 163 3.87 1.27 6 6
65 I.Kennedy ARZ SP 203 11 0 174 3.94 1.27 6 6
66 Ricky Romero TOR SP 205 14 0 166 3.93 1.35 6 6
67 Michael Pineda SEA SP 170 10 0 162 3.53 1.24 6 6
68 Edwin Jackson CWS SP 207 13 0 182 4.11 1.35 6 6
69 Jonathan Sanchez SF SP 183 11 0 189 3.91 1.34 6 6
70 Mariano Rivera NYY CL 58 3 41 39 3.26 1.12 6 6
71 John Danks CWS SP 210 14 0 161 4.06 1.33 6 6
72 Frank Francisco TOR CL 58 3 35 66 3.26 1.16 5 5
73 Jhoulys Chacin COL SP 178 12 0 166 3.78 1.33 5 5
74 Ervin Santana ANA SP 205 14 0 157 4.10 1.32 5 5
75 Trevor Cahill OAK SP 200 14 0 127 3.76 1.27 5 5
76 Erik Bedard SEA SP 160 10 0 155 3.51 1.25 5 5
77 Johnny Cueto CIN SP 192 13 0 149 4.04 1.29 4 4
78 Javier Vazquez FLA SP 174 12 0 151 3.99 1.27 4 4
79 Huston Street COL CL 58 5 30 61 3.57 1.12 4 4
80 John Lackey BOS SP 200 14 0 149 4.14 1.33 4 4
81 Bronson Arroyo CIN SP 210 15 0 128 4.18 1.29 4 4
82 John Axford MLW CL 58 6 28 67 3.26 1.31 4 4
83 Derek Lowe ATL SP 197 14 0 136 4.01 1.32 3 3
84 Jorge De La Rosa COL SP 181 13 0 171 4.26 1.39 3 3
85 Anibal Sanchez FLA SP 188 12 0 157 3.96 1.35 3 3
86 Jordan Zimmermann WAS SP 167 10 0 150 3.77 1.27 3 3
87 Derek Holland TEX SP 180 12 0 152 4.21 1.31 2 2
88 Dallas Braden OAK SP 189 12 0 122 3.84 1.26 2 2
89 Alexi Ogando TEX CL 73 3 28 71 3.33 1.21 2 2
90 Kyle McClellan STL SP 164 12 0 126 3.78 1.28 2 2
91 Leo Nunez FLA CL 73 4 29 67 3.58 1.27 2 2
92 Aaron Harang SD SP 180 11 0 148 3.89 1.32 2 2
93 Jair Jurrjens ATL SP 193 12 0 144 3.97 1.33 2 2
94 Randy Wolf MLW SP 203 12 0 142 4.03 1.32 2 2
95 Carl Pavano MIN SP 200 13 0 120 4.13 1.26 2 2
96 Joel Hanrahan PIT CL 73 4 23 89 3.45 1.26 2 2
97 Jonathan Broxton LA CL 65 5 24 77 3.60 1.26 1 1
98 Joe Blanton PHI SP 195 12 0 152 4.21 1.34 1 1
99 Wade Davis TB SP 181 13 0 137 4.13 1.34 1 1
100 Travis Wood CIN SP 174 11 0 137 4.08 1.27 1 1
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Scott Boras
- Posts: 422
- Joined: Thu Feb 12, 2009 6:00 pm
A Look Back
Originally posted by Edwards Kings:
quote:Originally posted by TOXIC ASSETS:
Excellent work, this is why you are one of the best in the business!
However... Let's re-rank the pitchers as follows:
1. Roy Halladay
2. CC Sabathia
3. List continues from here. No Shields? Better ERA, better WHIP, more K's than those other two no-names? [/QUOTE]Sounds like a Sabathia owner and a Shields owner! There are currently 4 starters with better overall stats and a higher rank on the player rater!
quote:Originally posted by TOXIC ASSETS:
Excellent work, this is why you are one of the best in the business!
However... Let's re-rank the pitchers as follows:
1. Roy Halladay
2. CC Sabathia
3. List continues from here. No Shields? Better ERA, better WHIP, more K's than those other two no-names?
[/QUOTE]Sounds like a Sabathia owner and a Shields owner! There are currently 4 starters with better overall stats and a higher rank on the player rater! -
TOXIC ASSETS
- Posts: 764
- Joined: Sat Feb 07, 2009 6:00 pm
A Look Back
Shields is having a nice year, but let's not go crazy just yet. W-L record of 9-8.
Sabathia is money, year in and year out. Pitches for a better team, therefore more wins. I'll gladly take him ahead of any other pitcher next year, except Halladay.
Sabathia is money, year in and year out. Pitches for a better team, therefore more wins. I'll gladly take him ahead of any other pitcher next year, except Halladay.
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Edwards Kings
- Posts: 5909
- Joined: Sun Mar 14, 2004 6:00 pm
- Location: Duluth, Georgia
A Look Back
Originally posted by TOXIC ASSETS:
Shields is having a nice year, but let's not go crazy just yet. W-L record of 9-8.
Sabathia is money, year in and year out. Pitches for a better team, therefore more wins. I'll gladly take him ahead of any other pitcher next year, except Halladay. True, but wins you cannot predict with reliability.
I am surprised at how the Rays have played. I guess Shields is forever going to be a bad luck guy. He has only given up more than three earned runs four times this year, but has won only once giving up more than one run. That means that eight times he has given up three earned runs or less and not gotten a win. Sad (for me).
How about Verlander?
[ July 26, 2011, 12:14 PM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]
Shields is having a nice year, but let's not go crazy just yet. W-L record of 9-8.
Sabathia is money, year in and year out. Pitches for a better team, therefore more wins. I'll gladly take him ahead of any other pitcher next year, except Halladay. True, but wins you cannot predict with reliability.
I am surprised at how the Rays have played. I guess Shields is forever going to be a bad luck guy. He has only given up more than three earned runs four times this year, but has won only once giving up more than one run. That means that eight times he has given up three earned runs or less and not gotten a win. Sad (for me).
How about Verlander?
[ July 26, 2011, 12:14 PM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer
Charles Krauthammer
A Look Back
Great work, Childs....
The one league that I am mightily struggling in is my main event league. I totally botched pitching.
My #1 and #2 starters:
Liriano and Hughes
If I remember correctly, reports started surfacing in March that Liriano had not done his shoulder stretches and had lost some flexibility... He said it was a minor issue and, in his last spring start, I think he struck out 9 in 3 innings. Dismissing it as minor, I took the bait. However, I really think this "minor" shoulder injury has ruined his season... It sounds like he tried to pitch through the discomfort early in the season and finally admitted to doing so. He finally was placed on the DL (was it June?) and returned with a couple of stellar starts (not including the no-hitter). However, since his return from the DL, his control has been consistently inconsistent and his last start typifies the nightmarish year that he has had. I wouldn't be surprised to read at some point that the shoulder has been an issue all year.
Of course, your Liriano ranking looks horrible as of today. However, I think, if he would've been more diligent with his off-season shoulder program and been healthy at the start of the season, we could've seen the pitcher you thought so highly of this year.
[ July 26, 2011, 08:55 PM: Message edited by: rkulaski ]
The one league that I am mightily struggling in is my main event league. I totally botched pitching.
My #1 and #2 starters:
Liriano and Hughes
If I remember correctly, reports started surfacing in March that Liriano had not done his shoulder stretches and had lost some flexibility... He said it was a minor issue and, in his last spring start, I think he struck out 9 in 3 innings. Dismissing it as minor, I took the bait. However, I really think this "minor" shoulder injury has ruined his season... It sounds like he tried to pitch through the discomfort early in the season and finally admitted to doing so. He finally was placed on the DL (was it June?) and returned with a couple of stellar starts (not including the no-hitter). However, since his return from the DL, his control has been consistently inconsistent and his last start typifies the nightmarish year that he has had. I wouldn't be surprised to read at some point that the shoulder has been an issue all year.
Of course, your Liriano ranking looks horrible as of today. However, I think, if he would've been more diligent with his off-season shoulder program and been healthy at the start of the season, we could've seen the pitcher you thought so highly of this year.
[ July 26, 2011, 08:55 PM: Message edited by: rkulaski ]
Richard Kulaski
Fairview, TN
Fairview, TN
-
CC's Desperados
- Posts: 2558
- Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 6:00 pm
A Look Back
Originally posted by rkulaski:
Great work, Childs....
The one league that I am mightily struggling in is my main event league. I totally botched pitching.
My #1 and #2 starters:
Liriano and Hughes
If I remember correctly, reports started surfacing in March that Liriano had not done his shoulder stretches and had lost some flexibility... He said it was a minor issue and, in his last spring start, I think he struck out 9 in 3 innings. Dismissing it as minor, I took the bait. However, I really think this "minor" shoulder injury has ruined his season... It sounds like he tried to pitch through the discomfort early in the season and finally admitted to doing so. He finally was placed on the DL (was it June?) and returned with a couple of stellar starts (not including the no-hitter). However, since his return from the DL, his control has been consistently inconsistent and his last start typifies the nightmarish year that he has had. I wouldn't be surprised to read at some point that the shoulder has been an issue all year.
Of course, your Liriano ranking looks horrible as of today. However, I think, if he would've been more diligent with his off-season shoulder program and been healthy at the start of the season, we could've seen the pitcher you thought so highly of this year. Lucky for me I only ended up with Liriano in two leagues. One was the LABR which was pre injury news I believe and I drafted him in a 12 teamer at a discount.
These player's value change on a dime. I wrote about all the pitcher before spring training and it's amazing how much changes before the live drafts.
It's a minefield out there and sometimes you just can't avoid the pitfalls.
Great work, Childs....
The one league that I am mightily struggling in is my main event league. I totally botched pitching.
My #1 and #2 starters:
Liriano and Hughes
If I remember correctly, reports started surfacing in March that Liriano had not done his shoulder stretches and had lost some flexibility... He said it was a minor issue and, in his last spring start, I think he struck out 9 in 3 innings. Dismissing it as minor, I took the bait. However, I really think this "minor" shoulder injury has ruined his season... It sounds like he tried to pitch through the discomfort early in the season and finally admitted to doing so. He finally was placed on the DL (was it June?) and returned with a couple of stellar starts (not including the no-hitter). However, since his return from the DL, his control has been consistently inconsistent and his last start typifies the nightmarish year that he has had. I wouldn't be surprised to read at some point that the shoulder has been an issue all year.
Of course, your Liriano ranking looks horrible as of today. However, I think, if he would've been more diligent with his off-season shoulder program and been healthy at the start of the season, we could've seen the pitcher you thought so highly of this year. Lucky for me I only ended up with Liriano in two leagues. One was the LABR which was pre injury news I believe and I drafted him in a 12 teamer at a discount.
These player's value change on a dime. I wrote about all the pitcher before spring training and it's amazing how much changes before the live drafts.
It's a minefield out there and sometimes you just can't avoid the pitfalls.