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Motivated by THIS THREAD, I wrote a new NFBC ZONE

Typically great stuff.

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NOBODY is an expert though.

Analysts, writers, and publishers throw around the word like they went to the FBI (Fantasy Baseball Institute).



What we have, is different writers and analysts with different theories and how they formulate those theories.



When Shandler came out with the Forecaster and his new theories, it shook the fantasy foundation. But since, those numbers have become mainstream.

Players are being bombarded with new letters each year. BABIP, WHIP, GB/FB, K/BB, L vs R.

These letters mean more to some analysts than others and this is how we get just a smidgen of a different guess as to what each players future holds.



They are not experts for breaking these letters down. It is their job, and by doing their job, they make it easier to do ours.

The process of breaking down these letters does not make them experts though. If that were the case, the statisticians on the Baseball Game of the Week would be as recognized as Joe Buck.

And we all know, the public face gets the lions share of recognition.



We don't expect 100% accuracy from writers prognostications. We expect thorough evaluations. And, we also wouldn't mind a gut call once in awhile.



Fantasy baseball is like golf. There is not a person in the world who truly considers themselves an expert at either.

If there is, they have more ego than smarts about either hobby.



Fantasy baseball and golf cannot be mastered. There are folks in both hobbies who can write, play, coach, and do a little of each well.



My original point was that the Rockies, Blue Jays, and Yankees did not know what they had in their own backyards.

They had no idea of what was to come for CarGo, Bautista, and Granderson.

Granted, I make that judgment from the mere circumstance of where they started the year in the lineup. But, that lineup is also a daily feeling of how a Manager perceive's each players worth.



There is no attack to the fantasy writing industry when I say there are no experts. These teams were wrong on their own personnel. I was wrong in surmising that Westbrook coming off Tommy John and pitching under Dave Duncan would make a great late round pick.



Experts in any field are perceived to be almost always right.

Nobody in fantasy baseball is almost always right.

Leroy Jethro Gibbs is the face, but behind the scenes, Abby Sciuto is crunching the numbers and in a way, helping to calculate the gut call.





[ August 30, 2011, 11:51 AM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Leroy Jethro Gibbs is the face, but behind the scenes, Abby Sciuto is crunching the numbers and in a way, helping to calculate the gut call.

and that is why he always brings her Caf-Pow.

[ October 13, 2011, 11:23 PM: Message edited by: Walla Walla ]

This is like a bunch of doctors at a seminar complaining that the front panel doesn't have any experts on it. Most of the people in the room here are experts. Most of the millions who play fantasy baseball each year are not. There is only a debate because of the company we keep.