Page 1 of 1

Odds on Winning

Posted: Mon Mar 08, 2004 12:23 pm
by Gordon Gekko
My estimates:

200 owners in NFBC draft

75 owners are dead money

Another 50 owners have limited intelligence



That leaves 75 people who have a legit chance of winning the $100,000. Not to sound arrogant ;) , but I know I'm one of them. Are you?

Odds on Winning

Posted: Mon Mar 08, 2004 12:35 pm
by rotatorcff
Wouldn't those owners with limited intelligence necessarily fall into the dead money category? :D

Odds on Winning

Posted: Mon Mar 08, 2004 1:02 pm
by SoonerC
I've never concerned myself too much with anybody who tells me how good they are at anything.

Odds on Winning

Posted: Mon Mar 08, 2004 1:14 pm
by Gordon Gekko
Originally posted by rotatorcff:

Wouldn't those owners with limited intelligence necessarily fall into the dead money category? :D Nope. It's possible that a few "limited intelligence" owners will get lucky. The dead money owners won't win, no matter what.

Odds on Winning

Posted: Mon Mar 08, 2004 1:15 pm
by Dyv
Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

My estimates:

200 owners in NFBC draft

75 owners are dead money

Another 50 owners have limited intelligence



That leaves 75 people who have a legit chance of winning the $100,000. Not to sound arrogant ;) , but I know I'm one of them. Are you? Hmmm, 200 owners, = 14 leagues. 75/14 = 5.5



Yeah, I think I can finish in the top 5-6 of my league. A little luck and brilliant drafting by my co-manager at the draft and we could be in the mix.



I'd be disappointed if I finished outside of the top 6 in my own league.



Dave

"Get used to disappointment"



[ March 08, 2004, 07:15 PM: Message edited by: Dyv ]

Odds on Winning

Posted: Mon Mar 08, 2004 1:17 pm
by chimpat
Is the payout still $100,000 with only 200 teams signed up?

Odds on Winning

Posted: Mon Mar 08, 2004 1:31 pm
by BB of the Leaderboard
Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

My estimates:

200 owners in NFBC draft

75 owners are dead money

Another 50 owners have limited intelligence



That leaves 75 people who have a legit chance of winning the $100,000. Not to sound arrogant ;) , but I know I'm one of them. Are you? Hey Ghek, I suspect your numbers are about right, but isn't this sort of like the surveys that show that 90% of all drivers rate themselves as "above average?"



B(Above average driver)B

Odds on Winning

Posted: Mon Mar 08, 2004 1:33 pm
by Gordon Gekko
We are about to find out...

Odds on Winning

Posted: Mon Mar 08, 2004 1:38 pm
by Gordon Gekko
Originally posted by chimpat:

Is the payout still $100,000 with only 200 teams signed up? I hope so. The $100,000 attracted me to the event. What's worth doing is worth doing for money. Winning $50,000 or so is okay, but after Uncle Sam gets his cut and I reward my staff, I'm left with peanuts.

Odds on Winning

Posted: Mon Mar 08, 2004 1:50 pm
by chimpat
I completely agree Geck....that's what really caught my eye. I just don't remember reading about prize money information if we don't get the 300 entries. Maybe Greg can confirm this one way or the other....I sure hope the 100k would still be available.

Odds on Winning

Posted: Mon Mar 08, 2004 1:55 pm
by Gordon Gekko
Originally posted by chimpat:

I completely agree Geck....that's what really caught my eye. I just don't remember reading about prize money information if we don't get the 300 entries. Maybe Greg can confirm this one way or the other....I sure hope the 100k would still be available. Greg continues to post on the "who has entered" thread that new participants are "in the hunt for the $100,000." Seems pretty clear to me that it's 100K.

Odds on Winning

Posted: Tue Mar 09, 2004 10:23 am
by Leaderboard Sports
I really hate to admit this but I would have to rate the teams in Chicago as the favorites for the overall prize. To win you have to draft well and be in a league that lets some good players slide a little farther than they should. I don't mean to slight the players in Chicago but due to the Fantasy Sports Trade Conference in Vegas there will be a disproportionate number of experts drafting in Vegas and a few in NY as well. I don't want to throw more credit to experts than they deserve, but when you do something for a living, you're bound to have an extensive knowledge of the subject matter.



There will be experts and Leaderboard members in every league in Vegas. Too many Sharks and not enough Guppies. :( I'm counting on Sin City to work it's magic on the Vegas drafters and level the playing field :D



Once we see all the team rosters after the draft I think we could probably come up with a top 5 favorites.



Maybe we could do an online auction of all the NFBC teams. The owner of the winning team gets the pot. :cool:

Odds on Winning

Posted: Tue Mar 09, 2004 8:18 pm
by Cherokee Nation
not to mention that Vegas has TWO big money league drafts on March 20th. I live 30 minutes from Chicago, but am drafting in Vegas.

Odds on Winning

Posted: Wed Mar 10, 2004 1:21 am
by Worst Russian Ever
I've been doing Fantasy baseball since 1982 and dominating my local league.



I've been itching to take on the so called experts, and now my dreams have come true...this is gonna be fun!

Odds on Winning

Posted: Wed Mar 10, 2004 3:30 am
by Team Herron
I like Leaderboard's auction idea. The team that goes for the most would thus be the odds on favorite. I have to agree that Vegas seems from the outside to have more notable talent, I think you also have a larer pool of entrants than another city.



With 100+ teams in Vegas alone, you could see a league get a disproportionate number of so-called "experts" or a disproportionate number o goof-offs like me.



I am one member that no one has to worry about, but I am sure the other leagues will be loaded with talent.