How foolish is the save catergory

Big Al's Cuz · Post by **Big Al's Cuz** » Tue May 03, 2005 4:12 pm

Saves are the most overrated Fantasy catergory. I don't see how you can actually forecast how many saves a closer will get. So, the Pirates have 9 total wins (9-16), and Mesa has 9 saves. A the White Sox's have 19 wins, and their closer has 7 saves. A pitcher comes in the 9th inning with their team winning by 3 runs, and gets shelled and gives up 2 runs, but picks up the save.

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Tue May 03, 2005 5:06 pm

Originally posted by Big Al's Cuz:

Saves are the most overrated Fantasy catergory. I don't see how you can actually forecast how many saves a closer will get. So, the Pirates have 9 total wins (9-16), and Mesa has 9 saves. A the White Sox's have 19 wins, and their closer has 7 saves. A pitcher comes in the 9th inning with their team winning by 3 runs, and gets shelled and gives up 2 runs, but picks up the save. Who cares about the ability to forecast it?

Dyv

Puffins · Post by **Puffins** » Tue May 03, 2005 5:11 pm

Saves greatly increase the amount of luck and randomness in the game. Fantasy baseball would be more of a contest of skill without the saves category.

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Tue May 03, 2005 6:01 pm

Originally posted by Puffins:

Saves greatly increase the amount of luck and randomness in the game. Fantasy baseball would be more of a contest of skill without the saves category. Skill or calculator work? I'm not afraid of numbers, but projecting out what Neifi Perez should produce if given 312 at bats in THAT ballpark with home and away stats normalized to what the NL produces... standardized age progressions, don't forget to factor in that the NL Central has 11 new starting pitchers so we need to compare their stats with their projected mean, incorporating age uptick/downtick tendencies... yowza.... let's leave some 'luck' into the picture. (Then again, is it luck that puts Griff on the DL every year? Risk and Value...)

Dyv

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Wed May 04, 2005 2:30 am

Oversight or error that allows you to make your point about saves and say White Sox closer (I presume you mean Takatsu since he) has seven saves. Are we forgetting about the saves that Hermanson and the rest of the bullpen have?

It is just one category. Your logic would have us delete stolen bases because some managers don't like to run.

Or would you rather play with 11 categories in both hitting and pitching and have better measurements of contributions to all facets of real baseball.

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Wed May 04, 2005 3:19 am

Puffffffiiiiinnnnnns,

Someone sounds a little bitter that the 3rd best "drafted team" is off to a slow start and is 66.5 pts out of first in his league and 1,370 pts off the overall pace.

viper · Post by **viper** » Wed May 04, 2005 4:53 am

I admit I am tired of the highly entertaining list of "best drafts" being quoted like they are the gospel according to Saint Saber. It was using a small sample size and highly subjective. If I can get access to a web site, I might just post a similar list using a different criterion.

But on to the question at hand.

Yes, saves are a murky category which probably requires the most weekly research. Injuries in other position move marginal players into the fore front. Arguments can be made that these "new" starters are of no value. Some become viable players but not many. New starting pitchers are promoted from the minors but for every Kerry Wood there are 50 scrubs that rteurn to the minors with a new appreciation of major league hitters. With closers, these promoted guys can have a huge impact - can you pronounce Brazoban. Even short term fill-in players can provide enough saves to make them valuable in a category where generally only one player per team contributes.

I agree that saves can be overrated. My personal strategy in all my leagues was to get to second-tier closers who have solid job security and then light candles for their health. In the NFBC, I have Percival & Hoffman. My candle supply is getting lower as I have Mota, Affeldt and Izzy (3 times) in other league and Baez (trade issues) in two other leagues.

Both Wins and Saves are hard categories to get a handle on. But they are a major part of baseball and should be a major part of fantasy baseball too. They are easily defined and they have always been categories going back to the primary 4x4 categories.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Wed May 04, 2005 6:14 am

For what it is worth, I agree with Viper. Taken one step further, the number of saves I can predict for my team is much easier for me than wins, though it is a matter of degree.

Yes, there are those out there with Armando, Izzy, Aquino, Affeldt, any Cubs pitcher who is breathing, or any combination thereof who would say I am crazy as hell (of course, they are right, but that has nothing to do with baseball), but so much of wins is luck.

IMHO, there are every year 12 or more stud closers or solid, safe closers (can rack up the same number of saves as the studs, but higher ERA, WHIP, fewer K's). Get one of those, one second tier plus a second tier's backup, you have a high probability of finishing with enough saves to get your 12.0 points.

Puffins · Post by **Puffins** » Wed May 04, 2005 6:37 am

With individual closers who maintain their jobs, it's hard to predict their saves total just like it's hard to predict win totals for a starting pitcher. But the difference is that relivers can go from 30th round value to 10th round value overnight. Urbina could be worthless all year or tomorrow he could be a 30-save pitcher. The saves category introduces too many players with such a high variance.

Originally posted by viper:

If I can get access to a web site, I might just post a similar list using a different criterion.Send me an email and maybe I can post it for you.

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Wed May 04, 2005 7:27 am

This may surprise you, but I take a much more simplistic approach to the saves category.

1) Your goal for the year should be 90 (12 or 225 points)

2) It will take more than 2 closers to get there

3) Always use the low estimate from publications, and

4) If someone becomes a new closer, just swap the initial closers Save estimates (only - not ERA, WHIP, etc) and adjust for what percentage of the season is left.

With all this in mind, I was much more likely to minimize my risk in the draft - Dotel and Mota's low estimates still provided value in those rounds (ie 5 & 7). Of course Saves will always be the hardest to project, thus the riskiest.

...oh, and if I were to do my own projections or analysis, I would look at closers on teams that had comparable hitting and pitching. No point in getting a closer who's team can rake and who's pitching in nearly untouchable. Wish I thought of that before drafting Mota!

[ May 04, 2005, 01:28 PM: Message edited by: nydownunder ]

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Wed May 04, 2005 9:57 am

Closers Rule #1: A winning team does not necessarily a good closer make.