Hideki Matsui

[JohnZ]

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by UFS:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by UFS:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

Yah, to weigh in on the actual conversation, picking healthy players is a skill. If you can't do it, you deserve the debit. Predicting health doesn't involve any more luck than predicting performance. Good point, that's why I drafted Matsui. [/QUOTE]And Shef? You know, I'm sure if all the #1's could have their picks back they'd take Pujols, and Nick Swisher might just not go in the 20th round. I didn't say it was easy to predict performance or health, just that you can do both. [/QUOTE]Sheff has played 155, 154, 154 games the last 3 seasons. He was a great pick at 3.9



What world do you live in? [/QUOTE]This is exactly what I'm talking about, you have no idea and that's why your team is full of DL risks. I can also, btw, name for you 10 pitchers who lost playing time over the past couple years that are lesser risks than 10 who didn't. But I won't.



Chest can tell you I predicted Shef's injury. [/QUOTE]He's on the 15-day DL. What's the bid deal? Of course he's an injury risk due to his age.



Sheff at 3.9, or Furcal at 3.1? What about the Dodger Stadium BA factor? I predicted he's hit .217, ask Chest.



I wanted Berkman there, but he wen 3.5. I also wanted Delgado in Rd 4, but Kent made a good pick at 3.10

[JohnZ]

Originally posted by KLN:

This is something that is not needed and should not be given any consideration, just another way to help bad and lazy owners, just like the fri DL rule which needs to done away with. Having an IR means activity, which is the opposite of lazy.



Not having an IR, and having a team where you have several DL players you can't waive promotes laziness. It also promotes owners abandoning their teams when they feel they don't have a chance to compete earlier than those types normally do. Just something I've seen over the years...



I always compete to the end no matter where I'm at. It's a long season and no one will win a league I'm in w/o earning it.

[bjoak]

I predicted he's hit .217 Wow, that's really something. I'll be sure to remind you about it at the end of the year. I think Furcal was hitting .216 at this time last year.



Shef isn't bad where you took him. Nice try on the age thing, btw. You have no idea how to evaluate injury risk.

[JohnZ]

Originally posted by bjoak:

This is exactly what I'm talking about, you have no idea and that's why your team is full of DL risks.The team with Sheff is not my main team. That team is fine. Why do you know so much about meds?



My point in this whole thread you hijacked is there's a point where a team is NOT at the same playing level as others are after a certain mumber of injuries occur. I simply can not make all the strategic decisions that others can make right now. That's not an even playing field IMO.



I drafted a backup for Sweeney. This is not about drafting a bunch of K.Wood's.



Maybe a mideason test?

[bjoak]

Originally posted by UFS:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

This is exactly what I'm talking about, you have no idea and that's why your team is full of DL risks.The team with Sheff is not my main team. That team is fine. Why do you know so much about meds?



My point in this whole thread you hijacked is there's a point where a team is NOT at the same playing level as others are after a certain mumber of injuries occur. I simply can not make all the strategic decisions that others can make right now. That's not an even playing field IMO.



I drafted a backup for Sweeney. This is not about drafting a bunch of K.Wood's.



Maybe a mideason test? [/QUOTE]I think my posts are totally on topic. You're saying that you need IR to counteract luck. I'm saying that you make your own luck. I can't predict health any more perfectly than I can predict stats, but I can predict both to some degree and I would like to think better than others.



I'm not going to give any information on how I derive my model, but I will say that you weigh risk against benefit. I didn't take Drew in the 15th round because I am supremely confident in his ability to stay healthy, but my view of his health is better than most and even if I lose him, a half season of Drew and a half season of replacement level is still better than any other 15th rounder.



The test is on. You can check it every morning. I don't like the sample size of midseason to begin with, and whether I decide to play will be in accordance with what I deem to be of the most benefit to me personally, whether or not anyone else wants me to play.

[JohnZ]

Originally posted by bjoak:



Maybe a mideason test? This wasn't direct at you. It was directed to all.



Mid season leagues are about the best way to test things.



I don't need to anal-yze to understand injury risk. I'm as inury averse in drafting as anyone I know. This is the first time I've ever had Sweeney. And I took him knowing I'd get an everyday 1B a few rounds later that hit .421 in the spring with 3-15.

[duggan]

the game has rules, play the game within the rules, pretty simple, end of story

[sportsbettingman]

Originally posted by Moneymaker:

quote:Originally posted by Joe Sambito:



I just think addidng a specific IR adds to some potential high-jink and chicanery, in terms of picking up already DL'd guys and even some draft strategies.I disagree. Here's an example about chicanery that can happen without IR:



Coco Crisp was dropped in a few (not all) leagues last year after he was injured. I picked him up and he starting scoring big for me about a week later and for the rest of the season.



Was it fair that Crisp was available in my league and not others?



Would I have won the $100,000 if I didn't land Crisp?



Would Crisp have been dropped if there were an IR position?



How often do difference-making players like this get dropped after they get injured, only to get picked-up by teams who are able hold them (teams that have don't have many injuries, and therefore are probably doing well)? [/QUOTE]This same owner may have already had a player in his "IR" slot...and with the "grim" and "out for the season" picture they were painting last year re: Crisp...he may still have dumped him.



Bad sell of another roster spot.



This is the 162 regular season game of baseball...not the 11 or 12 games of football...there is time to adjust to an injury with simple weekly roster moves.



~Lance

[Edwards Kings]

Originally posted by duggan:

the game has rules, play the game within the rules, pretty simple, end of story I feel the current rules (seven bench) is adequate as well. Just my two cents worth.

[JEagle]

**** happens..guys get hurt..deal with it..if you drafted guys like Harden, Sheets & Sweeney then you deserve it..We all have injuries its the ones who deal with is best that are the ones who deserve to win..leave it be

[Mr. LBN - Jeff Price]

Seven bench slots is more than enough to manage injuries. If you're like me and have a bench filled with DL players, you have choices to make, plain and simple. I'd like to see less bench slots and more player volatility, personally.



[ May 16, 2006, 09:44 AM: Message edited by: Mr. LBN - Jeff Price ]

[Greg Ambrosius]

I appreciate all of the talk on the potential use of a DL in the NFBC and John knows I always like new ideas that can make the contest fairer and more competitive. In some contests, a separate DL makes sense. In our contest, I think the seven-man reserve squad without a DL is ideal. It forces owners to make tough weekly decisions, keeps the free agent wire relatively good, and avoids anything to do with officially being on the DL (which we've seen with our Friday deadline can cause some controversy).



Again, I understand the rule proposal and I appreciate the thoughts. But we expanded from 29 players to 30 in 2005 to give a little more flexibility to owners and right now I like the 23 active players and the 7 man reserve. If you look at this week's cuts, you can tell it was tough for everyone as many teams just had to let go of Hideki Matsui and other injured players. That's tough to do, but there's no time to wait if you want to win it all.



Good luck the rest of the way, and for the forseeable future I think we'll stick with the current setup.

[King of Queens]

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

But we expanded from 29 players to 30 in 2005 to give a little more flexibility to owners and right now I like the 23 active players and the 7 man reserve. Excellent point, Greg. That first NFBC season was TOUGH -- amazing what one less roster spot means in the greater scheme of things.

[King of Queens]

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

It...avoids anything to do with officially being on the DL (which we've seen with our Friday deadline can cause some controversy).

K-I-S-S. The simpler the better.



Along the same line of reasoning, can we please go back to (1) no Friday DL moves and (2) the ability to draft anyone we choose (provided the minimum IP rule remains) on draft day?

[JohnZ]

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

I appreciate all of the talk on the potential use of a DL in the NFBC and John knows I always like new ideas that can make the contest fairer and more competitive. In some contests, a separate DL makes sense. In our contest, I think the seven-man reserve squad without a DL is ideal. It forces owners to make tough weekly decisions, keeps the free agent wire relatively good, and avoids anything to do with officially being on the DL (which we've seen with our Friday deadline can cause some controversy).



Again, I understand the rule proposal and I appreciate the thoughts. But we expanded from 29 players to 30 in 2005 to give a little more flexibility to owners and right now I like the 23 active players and the 7 man reserve. If you look at this week's cuts, you can tell it was tough for everyone as many teams just had to let go of Hideki Matsui and other injured players. That's tough to do, but there's no time to wait if you want to win it all.



Good luck the rest of the way, and for the forseeable future I think we'll stick with the current setup. No problem with this at all. I've always said that if I throw out 1000 ideas and one is accepted, I'm happy with that.



The current rule isn't bad at all. A 95 out of 100 in my book. I think it needs to be expanded in some way though. The competitve playing field is not the same when any team fills its reserve with DL players. Maybe a "60-day DL" (I need to get to 1000 )



My other concern is Matsui. He could be out for the year, he could be back mid-August. No one knows for sure yet.



It took a lot of guts for the 2005 winner to come out and say that a Crisp waive last year helped his cause.



That could possibly happen again this year. Yes, someone has to use valuable FAAB to get him next week, but down the stretch, you need everything you can to win these leagues with the stiff competition here. Well, at least that's what I needed when I won mid-season last year.



I respectfully request again that Matsui be added to the "no-sign" list. He was waived in ONLY SIX main leagues last week.



I don't understand why some players made this list last year and how a guy like Matsui can be left off it.



If someone signs Matsui this week, and odds are it's going to be someone that's doing well so far and hasn't had to spend a lot of FAAB yet (love it when that happens ). You could well have another Crisp scenario this year. And maybe not.



I would really hate to see this scenario play out again though. Maybe it's just me, but that's not the way this should be won. Avoid that problem now by making Matsui a no sign.



Thanks for listening. Again

[King of Queens]

Originally posted by UFS:

I respectfully request again that Matsui be added to the "no-sign" list. He was waived in ONLY SIX main leagues last week.Sounds like the Barry Bonds situation of a year ago. I believe Bonds was put on the restricted list for a couple of months, then was allowed to be picked up later in the season when it appeared he wouldn't return. Of course, he DID come back and had a pretty decent September.



I trust Greg to make the right call here. That said, the 6 out of 22 leagues argument is pretty compelling.

[Gordon Gekko]

bonds at his best is a 1st round pick. matsui at his best is a 4th round selection. matsui is out 3 months with a broken wrist. even if he returns in 3 months, how productive will he be? certainly not anywhere close to 4th round material.

[Chest Rockwell]

Closest comparison to the past is Benitez- he on avg went in the 5th or 6th round in 05. He was allowed to be dropped as should Matsui. If you value Matsui that much keep him, in our case in 05 we dropped Benitez. He ended up getting bid up for a pretty good bit and almost cost us the league (guy who got him competed with us in saves the last week) that is a choice we made and would have had to live with.



To me it is a much better situation for comparison purposes than Bonds or especially Crisp.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Originally posted by King of Queens:

quote:Originally posted by UFS:

I respectfully request again that Matsui be added to the "no-sign" list. He was waived in ONLY SIX main leagues last week.Sounds like the Barry Bonds situation of a year ago. I believe Bonds was put on the restricted list for a couple of months, then was allowed to be picked up later in the season when it appeared he wouldn't return. Of course, he DID come back and had a pretty decent September.



I trust Greg to make the right call here. That said, the 6 out of 22 leagues argument is pretty compelling. [/QUOTE]John and I have talked about the Matsui situation on the phone and as I told him it doesn't compare at all to the Crisp situation or the Bonds situation of last year. Matsui's wrist is BROKEN and he already had surgery. He could return the first week of August, so it's understandable that teams can't afford to reserve him for the next 12 weeks. That being said, it's a gamble for teams to pick him up this week in FAAB and reserve him for 11 weeks. The Yankees have even said he could be out for the year. So there are far more unknowns and gambles here than there were with Crisp and Bonds.



Bonds was week-to-week last May when he was going to be cut. Crisp was reported to be out for months on a few industry web sites and people over-reacted. There were other league champs who grabbed him last year and benefitted. But when he was cut there was no knowledge that he would return so quickly.



Matsui will definitely remain in the free agent pool for all NFBC leagues. Good luck to all and we'll monitor the cuts each week just like we always do. With any luck, I'll leave every free agent alone and avoid the abuse I took last year when I just tried to make every league fairly contested.

[JohnZ]

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:Originally posted by King of Queens:

quote:Originally posted by UFS:

I respectfully request again that Matsui be added to the "no-sign" list. He was waived in ONLY SIX main leagues last week.Sounds like the Barry Bonds situation of a year ago. I believe Bonds was put on the restricted list for a couple of months, then was allowed to be picked up later in the season when it appeared he wouldn't return. Of course, he DID come back and had a pretty decent September.



I trust Greg to make the right call here. That said, the 6 out of 22 leagues argument is pretty compelling. [/QUOTE]John and I have talked about the Matsui situation on the phone and as I told him it doesn't compare at all to the Crisp situation or the Bonds situation of last year. Matsui's wrist is BROKEN and he already had surgery. He could return the first week of August, so it's understandable that teams can't afford to reserve him for the next 12 weeks. That being said, it's a gamble for teams to pick him up this week in FAAB and reserve him for 11 weeks. The Yankees have even said he could be out for the year. So there are far more unknowns and gambles here than there were with Crisp and Bonds.



Bonds was week-to-week last May when he was going to be cut. Crisp was reported to be out for months on a few industry web sites and people over-reacted. There were other league champs who grabbed him last year and benefitted. But when he was cut there was no knowledge that he would return so quickly.



Matsui will definitely remain in the free agent pool for all NFBC leagues. Good luck to all and we'll monitor the cuts each week just like we always do. With any luck, I'll leave every free agent alone and avoid the abuse I took last year when I just tried to make every league fairly contested. [/QUOTE]I would say this is a better explanation than the phone All I remember is you shouting broken hand, broken hand!



GG, Matsui, like most DL players, would ML rehab before coming back, so I don't see him being any less valuable than a Crisp of last year.



Why not nip this in the bud and prevent any possible problem and say that anyone from the NFBC Top 75 ADP list can't be signed if waived. Not for Matsui, as Greg has already ruled and I accept, but for next year. Simple, clear, and fair.

[bjoak]

GG, Matsui, like most DL players, would ML rehab before coming back, so I don't see him being any less valuable than a Crisp of last year. Forget about getting off-topic. This is the iconic recurring theme. The thread should be called, "UFS can't evaluate injuries."

[Greg Ambrosius]

Originally posted by UFS:

[QUOTE]Why not nip this in the bud and prevent any possible problem and say that anyone from the NFBC Top 75 ADP list can't be signed if waived. Not for Matsui, as Greg has already ruled and I accept, but for next year. Simple, clear, and fair. Nah, that was something the other guys tried to do with the Top 100. That never did anything for me. Why the Top 75? Why not Top 100? Maybe only Top 50?



Matsui is out for half a season and maybe more. It's not the same as Crisp last year. There's a lot of strategy for everyone, whether to keep him on your reserve, whether to bid for him in FAAB, or whether to go with guys who are currently playing. No need to take him out of the free agent pool (again, something I hope to avoid more this year).



I only shouted at you when I told you I'd be in L.A. this weekend and you wouldn't secure tickets to the Angels-Dodgers Sunday game. I thought you were a SERIOUS Angels' fan. No SERIOUS Angels' fan goes RV camping on the weekend of the Angels-Dodgers series!

[JohnZ]

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote: GG, Matsui, like most DL players, would ML rehab before coming back, so I don't see him being any less valuable than a Crisp of last year. Forget about getting off-topic. This is the iconic recurring theme. The thread should be called, "UFS can't evaluate injuries." [/QUOTE]And drafting Sheets in Rd 1 one year, and Harden in Round 2 the next is? :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: It's no wonder why you don't share your theories. You even said you learned from the prior year. Comedy.



[ May 17, 2006, 04:50 PM: Message edited by: UFS ]

[JohnZ]

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:Originally posted by UFS:

[QUOTE]Why not nip this in the bud and prevent any possible problem and say that anyone from the NFBC Top 75 ADP list can't be signed if waived. Not for Matsui, as Greg has already ruled and I accept, but for next year. Simple, clear, and fair. Nah, that was something the other guys tried to do with the Top 100. That never did anything for me. Why the Top 75? Why not Top 100? Maybe only Top 50?



Matsui is out for half a season and maybe more. It's not the same as Crisp last year. There's a lot of strategy for everyone, whether to keep him on your reserve, whether to bid for him in FAAB, or whether to go with guys who are currently playing. No need to take him out of the free agent pool (again, something I hope to avoid more this year).



I only shouted at you when I told you I'd be in L.A. this weekend and you wouldn't secure tickets to the Angels-Dodgers Sunday game. I thought you were a SERIOUS Angels' fan. No SERIOUS Angels' fan goes RV camping on the weekend of the Angels-Dodgers series! [/QUOTE]LOL... It's not the same as Crisp..... right now... 75 was chosen as that is 5 rounds of players chosen by all the leagues. 60 or 45 would work also. Just something that is clear cut and helps avoid controversy of what could happen down the road. 100 too high. Who are the other guys with 100?



The trip to Dodger Stadium is brutal. It takes forever to get in that rat hole. I only do it for special guests from Iola. And if you told me 2 weeks before you were coming, and not 5 days, then "Griswolds go camping" is done some other time.



p.s. It's not Angels season until the NHL playoffs are over anyways

[bjoak]

Originally posted by UFS:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

quote: GG, Matsui, like most DL players, would ML rehab before coming back, so I don't see him being any less valuable than a Crisp of last year. Forget about getting off-topic. This is the iconic recurring theme. The thread should be called, "UFS can't evaluate injuries." [/QUOTE]And drafting Sheets in Rd 1 one year, and Harden in Round 2 the next is? :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: It's no wonder why you don't share your theories. You even said you learned from the prior year. Comedy. [/QUOTE]UFS NFBC injuries: 7

BAM: 1



Incidentally, aside from Sheets my team was the picture of health last year.



[ May 17, 2006, 05:19 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]