league assignment

flattops · Post by **flattops** » Tue Jan 11, 2005 4:35 pm

I haven't signed up for the 2005 NFBC yet but I'm about to take that giant leap. I was just wondering how was last year's league assignments handled? Randomly, with Tom and Greg drawing the names from a hat? If that's the case, what are the odds of 5 of 2004 league winners being randomly assigned in a league? I guess my question is, is there a better way of doing it? And the only thing that comes to mind is the establishment of a fantasy players ranking and using that for league assignment. I know that's complicated but I'm just concerned about being randomly thrown in a league with last year's 5 league winners in my initial foray into big-time fantasy baseball.

Leaderboard Sports · Post by **Leaderboard Sports** » Tue Jan 11, 2005 6:17 pm

There are very few people in this contest who are not capable of winning any league. Last years league winner could be this years 12th place team. Injuries, draft position, and a host of other factors have to go right for you in order to come out on top.

Everything is done by random drawing and while everyone hopes to get the rich drunk guy throwing his money away in their league, there are very few people willing to put up $1250 that will be easy marks.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Jan 12, 2005 2:15 am

Flattops, I'm glad you're checking us out and hoping to make the leap with us. As Ken said above, every league will be picked randomly no matter how you finished the year before. You have to remember that six league champs were drafting in Las Vegas last year, five in New York and two in Chicago and I believe all of those league champs are returning to those cities. It's possible that a couple of them will land in the same league, but obviously with us having 20 leagues this year instead of 13 (at least that's the goal) the odds of top finishers landing in the same league are higher this year.

That being said, here's the scientific process we use: Once we have all of the applications filled, we put all of the names for Las Vegas into a hat and pick them out one by one. Last year my nine-year-old daughter helped with the first couple of leagues. Tom Kessenich picked the rest out and we reported each league for each city once we were done. We will do the same thing this year and not worry who is competing against who (or is that whom vs. whom?).

As Ken said, I think everyone in this contest is qualified to win the top prize and I wouldn't doubt if the tables are turned on many people this year, top to bottom and bottom to top. It's the luck of the draw when it comes to getting assigned what league you're in and what draft spot you get, but after that it's all skill, baby.

Some people had asked me to seed the league champs in separate leagues so that they have a chance to defend their titles, but I don't think that's right. If two defending champs get into the same league, let it be a fight to the finish with the other 13 owners also having a say in the matter.

I hope this helps. The competition is going to be tough, trust me on that one. But I am certain you will be able to hold your own against these crafty veterans. Good luck and hopefully we'll hook up in the NFBC.

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Wed Jan 12, 2005 9:37 am

The only one stopping me from winning a league is myself... and I would have gotten away with it if it wasn't for those pesky kids!

Well, myself and miscellaneous injuries, etc.

lol

Dave

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Jan 12, 2005 6:12 pm

I would argue that everyone does not have the same ability to win. For one thing, you have the same players going to every team as in any other draft in the world. It's not like some people get super players on the top teams. Though you will get more teams in the middle, rather than top or bottom, that in itself creates an opportunity for the shrewd GM who is less likely to see average people accidentally getting good teams. (It's true that no one is terribly stupid here.) Moreover, take real baseball--if you gave every real GM a specific amount of money to spend and they had to build a team from scratch, of course they wouldn't have an equal chance of winning. The best GM's would. Oakland isn't going to win with a small amount of cash in the lopsided real world and then suck when they're equals.

Same thing here. Some owners may be on the ball, but others are rolling their way over from football where they just spent their money and are no better baseball experts than Joe Morgan, or, better yet, baseball writers who spend half their time writing about basketball or surfing. Willing or interested does not equal expert or academic. There is opportunity here for players who have advanced knowledge.

Additionally, injuries do play into a season, but if you took Bonds in the first round and Randy Johnson in the second, is it really just dumb luck when your 2 best guys are on the dl?

I'll admit that I took Prior in the first round last year. But I don't blame him for my team's lackluster performance out of the gate (they did go on to win). I blame myself for taking a player (in the first round, no less) whom I knew Dusty Baker was routinely abusing for 130 pitches a game and whose pitching style leads to injury anyway. I know whose fault it is if my team is average.

P.S. If you just thought, "But Joe Morgan is a good analyst," you've proven my point.

[ January 13, 2005, 09:36 AM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

sandckaye · Post by **sandckaye** » Thu Jan 13, 2005 1:32 am

Would someone please explain what bjoak said in that last post. I would like to know if I agree or not.

Stan

Leaderboard Sports · Post by **Leaderboard Sports** » Thu Jan 13, 2005 8:32 am

I think he said we're all average at best and the money is as good as his.

Plymouth · Post by **Plymouth** » Thu Jan 13, 2005 10:16 am

If that is true, we should just pay him now and not waste our time with this.

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Thu Jan 13, 2005 3:14 pm

bjoak, Shutup and kiss my Moss!

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Jan 13, 2005 3:50 pm

On the contrary, I said that I may very well lose, but it will be my own fault. I think that is the same for everyone. Some members seem to believe that luck determines the winner and I refuse to believe that. I wouldn't play if that were the case. Sure you have 15 GM's per league, most of whom are highly qualified, but still, the best GM will win.

Even if you choose a team that is filled with injuries, you still chose that team. If someone chooses a team that has no injuries, I believe that person should be congratulated for picking a team that doesn't get injured. On the other hand, if you take Mike Sweeney in round 8 and Austin Kearns in round 9, you have no business making excuses for yourself. I know that not all injuries are easy to predict, but again, the team that has fewest injuries had to go into the season with some kind of foresight in that area.

Similarly, look at the article "In Season Surprises" about Jeff Thomas (in _general nfbc discussion_). Now here is a guy who ended up with a team that had injuries and poor performances and he still managed to make the shrewd moves and come out ahead of the comprtition. If he didn't make the moves and turned into a loser he could have made excuses but he never had to get to that point.

If I finish in last place, I'm not going to say I was unlucky and go into next year with the same strategy. I'm going to figure I did something wrong, fix it, and adapt to overcome the problem the following year.

Otherwise, I might just as well skip the nfbc and hit the slots.

[ January 13, 2005, 09:56 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]