Week 4 - Gekko Jeopardy

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Jan 08, 2007 11:17 am

Each week I will pick the poster with the best response (as judged by Gekko) to my question. After ten weeks is up, I (or Greg) am going to put each weekly winner's name on a piece of paper, throw them into a hat, and pick an overall winner AT RANDOM. The overall winner will win free entry into the Web Content Panel Draft in March where the format is winner-take-all for a $500 NFBC credit.

Week 1

Question = This player has the best chance to be the 2007 NFBC version of fantasy football’s LaDainian Tomlinson. In other words, this player has the best chance at dominating all other fantasy players and carrying the most NFBC teams into “money” finishes.

Winners = EliGrimmett (Matt Holliday) & duggan (Alfonso Soriano)

Week 2

Question = In 2006 this player hit 15 or less homeruns in the major leagues. In 2007 he hit over 30 homeruns.

Winner = EliGrimmett (Kevin Kouzmanoff)

Week 3

Question = This pitcher never had 20 wins in a season until 2007.

Winners = headhunters (Ervin Santana) & poopy tooth (Jason Schmidt)

Week 4 Question: This player led the Major Leagues in RBI's in 2007.

Message Board posters: In your opinion who is this player and why?

[ January 08, 2007, 05:18 PM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Mon Jan 08, 2007 1:59 pm

Who is Alex Rodriguez? He coming off a down year. With Damon and Jeter on base 40% of the time, he will have a ton of oppurtunities. He earns his keep this year. I'll go off the board for two hundred on him. He will also break the career Home run record and career hit record before he is done. You heard it here first.

EliGrimmett · Post by **EliGrimmett** » Mon Jan 08, 2007 3:56 pm

Who is Albert Pujols?

He's coming off a down year, too! At least his hit rate in the first half was down. I believe the first half power and second half BA is what we should expect in 2007.

Over the last 4 years the average of the league leaders in RBI has been 149, so we should expect that around 150 should win in 2007. If you just pro-rated Pujols' RBI last year for a full season he'd have had 151 RBI. In his 27 year old prime and with his continued improvement he should have more IBB, a higher BA, and more power in 2007. I predict 150 RBI - league leader!

Eckstein and Duncan are projected to hit ahead of him in 2007 and they posted a .333 and .363 OBP in 2006. Since those were the same two players who got most of the AB last year in the 1/2 spots I'd imagine Pujols will have the same number of opportunities in 2007 - maybe even a few more if they keep Taguchi outta the way and Duncan can repeat his .363.

Also, just for accuracy and credibility, let's look at what history has to say. When looking back we see that the average number of AB for anyone who has ever racked up 150 or more RBI in a season is 586, the average BA is .347, the average number of HR is 43, and the average number of doubles is 38. On average these hitters have more BB (86) than SO (70). All of these averages are within Pujols' capabilities - no one else currently playing is realistically even close.

Oh, I almost forgot...he will also break AROD's HR record and career hit record before he is done! You heard it here last.

[ January 09, 2007, 12:05 AM: Message edited by: EliGrimmett ]

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Mon Jan 08, 2007 4:15 pm

If Francona had sense, he would lead off Youkilis (.379 lifetime OBP) and follow with Drew in the 2-hole (.393 lifetime OBP) Then Ortiz would come close to 200 RBI's. Afterall, you don't need speed in the 1-2 hole when Papi's burying the ball 10 rows deep.

The question is, will Francona have Lugo leadoff? His .340 OBP is too low for a leadoff hitter. Either way, Ortiz will still have many opportunities to drive in runs. He'll be protected by Manny.

Lugo should be dropped to the bottom 1/3 of the order, following Varitek and Crisp. Lowell and Lugo could round out the line up. Speed at the bottom is very unconvential, but when you have two hitters with OBP of .370 and .393, you got to throw them in the 1-2 hole and let 3-4 slug you into a division title.

I'd even put my neck out on the line and say if Francona does this, he'll end the Yankees run. Make no mistakes, the Yanks line up is deadly, but Boston has the edge, they just have to use it.

Either way, Ortiz is a near lock for 150 RBI's, with an outside shot at 175 if they move Drew up to the 2 hole. Before the naysayers talk about Drew's missed games and Manny needs protection also, I'll respond now...I'll give you Drew will miss some games, then you move Lugo or Crisp up, drop Youk to 2...as far as protection, if Manny is up and you look over and see Drew and his 20 HR's on deck, who you pitching to?

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Mon Jan 08, 2007 4:17 pm

I'll follow it up with this...if Youkilis and Drew hit 1-2, Ortiz cracks the top 5 overall, if he doesn't already, even with DH eligibility.

[ January 08, 2007, 10:17 PM: Message edited by: poopy tooth ]

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Jan 08, 2007 5:32 pm

Eli, in general I am a fan of your analysis, but I don't see how you can answer this question without discussing who hits ahead of the guy, no matter how good he is. I guarentee you if I hit in front of him he won't be the RBI leader.

Furthermore, I am not sure how as stated this doesn't contradict the week 1 answer.

[ January 08, 2007, 11:47 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

EliGrimmett · Post by **EliGrimmett** » Mon Jan 08, 2007 5:56 pm

I updated my post for you, bjoak, but I left out the analysis because I figured the pro-rating of last years numbers would be sufficient to show opportunity because the one-two spots are going to be occupied by the same two players (roughly, anyway.)

It does contradict my week one answer, but my week one answer was designed to aide in winning a contest and Pujols was far to obvious a choice and was already chosen by others. If I chose him in week one, my answer would have blended in, and I would have been repeating myself by choosing him here.

Gotta be thinking ahead always! (like in Vegas - who to draft 5 rounds from now!)

[ January 08, 2007, 11:59 PM: Message edited by: EliGrimmett ]

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Tue Jan 09, 2007 2:02 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

Eli, in general I am a fan of your analysis, but I don't see how you can answer this question without discussing who hits ahead of the guy, no matter how good he is. I guarentee you if I hit in front of him he won't be the RBI leader.

Furthermore, I am not sure how as stated this doesn't contradict the week 1 answer. Come on I think you would be a good OBP guy- Buttermaker would say lean in to one Oakchunas.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Tue Jan 09, 2007 9:46 am

gecko- thanks for choosing me. headhunters

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Tue Jan 09, 2007 2:06 pm

I have your Week 4 winner:

Who is Mark Teixeira?

The reason is simple: Ron Shandler says so!

SluggoJD · Post by **SluggoJD** » Wed Jan 10, 2007 5:05 pm

Well, I don't think a long explanation is needed to support Ryan Howard.

He's 27, coming off 58 HRs and 149 RBIs. No reason to believe he can't match or exceed those numbers.

Occam's razor.

Did I spell that right? lol

John

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Jan 10, 2007 6:19 pm

Hey, I picked the easiest possible answer with no effort even though it is the easiest answer to come up with reasons for.

Please never pick these guys.

Mudster · Post by **Mudster** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 4:42 am

Who is Prince Fielder?

Maybe a longshot, but there is some reasoning behind it....

First off, the Brewers have maturing youth at the top of their lineup. Rickie Weeks should be turning into a stud any day now and with the hitting skills that JJ Hardy showed at the end of 2005, there should be plenty of RBI opportunities for Prince, who himself should only improve with one more year under his belt (didn't think he could fit anything else under his belt, did ya?)

Secondly, there is major opportunity for Prince if he can show a big bat. How's this? The Yankees. Recent history has shown that the Yankees have no problem trading for a stud player who will demand big bucks. Steinbrenner will soon get disgruntled with his mess at 1st base and will want to make a move for a corner man that can put up numbers. If the Brewers were to trade him for prospects, like every small market team is forced to do, Primce Fielder should have RBI opportunities everytime he comes up to bat.

This is my question...Who is Prince Fielder?

Thanks,

The Mudster

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 5:16 am

Originally posted by Mudster:

Who is Prince Fielder?

Maybe a longshot, but there is some reasoning behind it....

First off, the Brewers have maturing youth at the top of their lineup. Rickie Weeks should be turning into a stud any day now and with the hitting skills that JJ Hardy showed at the end of 2005, there should be plenty of RBI opportunities for Prince, who himself should only improve with one more year under his belt (didn't think he could fit anything else under his belt, did ya?)

Secondly, there is major opportunity for Prince if he can show a big bat. How's this? The Yankees. Recent history has shown that the Yankees have no problem trading for a stud player who will demand big bucks. Steinbrenner will soon get disgruntled with his mess at 1st base and will want to make a move for a corner man that can put up numbers. If the Brewers were to trade him for prospects, like every small market team is forced to do, Primce Fielder should have RBI opportunities everytime he comes up to bat.

This is my question...Who is Prince Fielder?

Thanks,

The Mudster Why would the Brewers trade a young stud who is not even arbitration eligible yet who happens to excel in an area where their franchise is weak?

Come on mudster Gordon requires you to bring your A game in this contest.

Cooperstown · Post by **Cooperstown** » Mon Jan 15, 2007 2:33 pm

No winner yet? I guess I still have time to answer. This guy led the majors in RBI per AB. If he had the same number of AB's as Howard he would have led the league. The only problem is that he's been 100 AB's shy of a full season the past 3 years. At 29 years old he's still in his prime and a pretty good lineup in front and back with Sizemore, Martinez, Blake and Barfield. I predict he'll get those 580 AB's this season and lead the majors in RBI.

Who is Travis Haffner?

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Mon Jan 15, 2007 3:26 pm

Who is David Ortiz? ... this isn't a trick question. He has driven in 139, 148 and 137 over the last three seasons. The Sox lineup is better than ever, and as a DH he won't injure himself playing defense. Last season Ryan Howard led the lge, no way Howard equals last year's numbers.

The 10 highest RBI totals over the past three years include only one player that has done it more than once. David Ortiz. Not is he the only player to repeat, all three of his seasons rank among the top 10 RBI seasons since '04. Any answer other than Ortiz is just rolling the dice. Sometimes you bet the favorite.

[ January 15, 2007, 09:57 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Jan 15, 2007 11:47 pm

Winner 4 Winner = poopy tooth (David Ortiz)

ps - Duke, you woulda won too if your weren't already in the Web Content Panel Draft.

[ January 16, 2007, 05:48 AM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Jan 16, 2007 5:57 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Winner 4 Winner = poopy tooth (David Ortiz)

ps - Duke, you woulda won too if your weren't already in the Web Content Panel Draft. ... should I win a spot in the hat, I'd assign it to a friend who I've been trying to get join the NFBC. He's very worthy competition.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Tue Jan 16, 2007 6:00 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Winner 4 Winner = poopy tooth (David Ortiz)

ps - Duke, you woulda won too if your weren't already in the Web Content Panel Draft. ... should I win a spot in the hat, I'd assign it to a friend who I've been trying to get join the NFBC. He's very worthy competition. [/QUOTE]When do we get to do the NFBC content panel league?

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Tue Jan 16, 2007 7:40 am

My understanding was that it was the end of March, post-main event, pre-season.

[ January 16, 2007, 01:41 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Tue Jan 16, 2007 8:11 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

My understanding was that it was the end of March, post-main event, pre-season. I prefer before if I am in Left field on something would like the feedback from the group before then. To me that offsets any concerns about the outside possibility of one guy in your league seeing you draft.

Mudster · Post by **Mudster** » Mon Jul 09, 2007 6:45 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by Mudster:

Who is Prince Fielder?

Maybe a longshot, but there is some reasoning behind it....

First off, the Brewers have maturing youth at the top of their lineup. Rickie Weeks should be turning into a stud any day now and with the hitting skills that JJ Hardy showed at the end of 2005, there should be plenty of RBI opportunities for Prince, who himself should only improve with one more year under his belt (didn't think he could fit anything else under his belt, did ya?)

Secondly, there is major opportunity for Prince if he can show a big bat. How's this? The Yankees. Recent history has shown that the Yankees have no problem trading for a stud player who will demand big bucks. Steinbrenner will soon get disgruntled with his mess at 1st base and will want to make a move for a corner man that can put up numbers. If the Brewers were to trade him for prospects, like every small market team is forced to do, Primce Fielder should have RBI opportunities everytime he comes up to bat.

This is my question...Who is Prince Fielder?

Thanks,

The Mudster Why would the Brewers trade a young stud who is not even arbitration eligible yet who happens to excel in an area where their franchise is weak?

Come on mudster Gordon requires you to bring your A game in this contest. [/QUOTE]Rule out the Yankees b.s. and ARod and this answer isn't so far fetched anymore. Too bad my team just flat out sucks.....