Jered Weaver

Jim Young · Post by **Jim Young** » Mon Jan 29, 2007 4:23 am

Is it just me, or does Jered Weaver stink of Zack Duke? Seriously, I've got a feeling that Weaver is going to go in the Fifth round, and that is way to early. Go back and look at his stats from last year, and you will see that they are very similar to Zack Duke 2 years ago, and look at what he did in his second year. Now Weaver does play for a better team, which should help, but he also plays in a tougher league; so the two negate eachother. I hope Weaver goes early, because he is definitely not on my list. Anyone else with me on this one?

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Mon Jan 29, 2007 5:25 am

He may have some regression this year, but PLEASE, Jered Weaver is a MUCH better pitcher than Zach Duke

RODGER · Post by **RODGER** » Mon Jan 29, 2007 5:56 am

Originally posted by Trenton Makes:

Is it just me, or does Jered Weaver stink of Zack Duke? Seriously, I've got a feeling that Weaver is going to go in the Fifth round, and that is way to early... I hope Weaver goes early, because he is definitely not on my list. Anyone else with me on this one? Based upon last year's NFBC overall composite average draft, Zach Duke was selected in the middle of the 11th round.

I wouldn't expect Weaver to last until the 11th round in any leagues this year, but if he's available there, he'd certainly be worth the investment.

Jim Young · Post by **Jim Young** » Mon Jan 29, 2007 6:03 am

Okay, don't confuse what I am saying. At this point in time, taking into consideration that Zack Duke had a bad year last year, Jerred Weaver is a much better pitcher and has some huge upside/potential. However, take a look back at Duke's 1st year (and forget about last year), and compare those stats with Jerred Weaver's 1st year.

Duke (1st year in 2005)- 14 Games, 84 IP, 1.81 ERA, 58 K's, 8-2 Record, and a 6.17 K/9

Weaver (1st year in 2006) - 19 Games, 123 IP, 2.56 ERA, 105 K's, 11-2 Record, and 7.68 K/9

I think those are pretty darn similar. There is only a difference of age by 1 year.

Duke had a bad year last year, and is the perfect example of a "sophmore slump" and "draft day bust", especially considering that he went so early. Personally, I think that there is the same type of risk with Weaver, and just like I was happy went Duke went early, I will be happy when Weaver goes early.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Mon Jan 29, 2007 6:24 am

Originally posted by Trenton Makes:

Okay, don't confuse what I am saying. At this point in time, taking into consideration that Zack Duke had a bad year last year, Jerred Weaver is a much better pitcher and has some huge upside/potential. However, take a look back at Duke's 1st year (and forget about last year), and compare those stats with Jerred Weaver's 1st year.

Duke (1st year in 2005)- 14 Games, 84 IP, 1.81 ERA, 58 K's, 8-2 Record, and a 6.17 K/9

Weaver (1st year in 2006) - 19 Games, 123 IP, 2.56 ERA, 105 K's, 11-2 Record, and 7.68 K/9

I think those are pretty darn similar. There is only a difference of age by 1 year.

Duke had a bad year last year, and is the perfect example of a "sophmore slump" and "draft day bust", especially considering that he went so early. Personally, I think that there is the same type of risk with Weaver, and just like I was happy went Duke went early, I will be happy when Weaver goes early. Actually that 1.5 K's per nine is an especially telling stat. Duke on his best has two categories his skills can have the most impact on(ERA and WHIP). Since he is not a strike-out pitcher (for the sake of the arguement let's say at least a K in 75% of innings pitched or 150k in 200 IP), he cannot afford to walk anyone (he pretty much has to have a k/bb ratio of 2.5 to 1). Like most finesse pitchers, he lives on the edge and has limited upside, especially in a 5x5 league.

Weaver has the advantage of a live arm (k's) to go with a k/bb profile that Duke would kill for. Will Weaver regress in '07? Yes, just based on the fact he is a young arm who threw a lot of innings last year. Will the wheels come off like for Duke? I think not. Weaver clearly has the better skill set. Will Duke bounce back from the 1.50 WHIP? Yes, he is better than that, but without the K's, he is a poor man's Jon Lieber.

RODGER · Post by **RODGER** » Mon Jan 29, 2007 6:37 am

Originally posted by Trenton Makes:

Okay, don't confuse what I am saying. At this point in time, taking into consideration that Zack Duke had a bad year last year, Jerred Weaver is a much better pitcher and has some huge upside/potential. However, take a look back at Duke's 1st year (and forget about last year), and compare those stats with Jerred Weaver's 1st year.

My point was that you suggested Weaver might be a 5th round pick this year, going too early like Zach Duke last year.

The fact that Duke was a mid 11th rounder after his big 2005 debut suggests that either the comparison between the two or the discussion of Weaver in the 5th is off base.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Mon Jan 29, 2007 7:31 am

Just to show you where these guys are going already.In the Magazine draft , Weaver went in the 7th round pick 99, that's sounds about right.

Zach Duke went in the 23rd round , selection 307.

Duke is not someone i would want, 255 hits in 215 innings is telling me he has a promblem getting outs.You cant compare these two, Weaver wont post these numbers.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Jan 29, 2007 3:09 pm

weaver > duke

easy call on that one