a) When the BoSox lead the revolt against the games by threatening to boycott and forfeit if the managers didn't get their money, everyone should have known that the team had decided then that they didn't care whether they won or not. This alone told you flat out that Boston wasn't going to give 100%, and that assured at least a split of the two games.
b) Dice-K starts game one. Should have been a clue that no matter how bad he was or how good the A's were that Boston was winning the first game, no matter what. One of my professors says you can't divorce ethics from action. When it comes to baseball I like to say you can't divorce reality from the game. Yesterday I commented that Selig had a vision for baseball, and that vision is spreading the game across the planet. It is about marketing the game. Why? I don't know. Playing the games in Japan, having one of their heroes opening the season, World Series champs against an annual tough competitor from the West Coast, all of this is like marketing magic. I think Dice-K would have started the first game even if Beckett was available. This could also be the reason why Beckett is "hurt." The only thing hurt on Beckett could be his ego 'cause Dice-K is the story in Japan, and Selig knew that. I don't think the game was fixed but I believe that Selig has a vision and he will do whatever it takes to see it happen. Hunter Wendlestadt's strike zone in game two was probably Selig's compromise for Dice-K starting game one.
c) News reports told us that Boston didn't really want to play the games. What the news didn't give us much of was how excited the A's were about getting to make the trip and play the games in Japan. Baseball media and political media have a lot of similarities. If you caught some of the interviews with A's players, then you knew that they were going to give it their best. So, I got one team that wants to be there and wants to win and I got one team who has already threatened to forfeit the games. Forget who the teams are for a minute and you know that the team that wants to play is going to win at least one of those games.
Given this information, you should have known Boston would take game one and Oakland would take game two. That one was written in Selig's marketing plan. Vegas knew it too. Dice-K was -148 and then Lester was -112. They gave us the first game at a very fair price, practically a gimme. Then they turned around and offered the World Series champs at -112 for the second, knowing that every red-blooded American would jump all over it. Why? Because they all know that the media is a circus and you can't rely on half of the news that you hear. Success in gambling and fantasy baseball depends on getting good information.
The important information here was that Boston is very good but didn't want to play and Oakland is average at best but they have a lot of young guys who were eager to see a new country and play ball.
Now the tricky bets - the totals. Both games were at 9-1/2 runs. This one is pretty much the same analysis as above. Boston didn't want to play, so don't expect much hustle out of them. Oakland wanted to so the expectations from them should be a little higher. Oakland getting 5 runs in both games really isn't a surprise because I think that they were playing over their heads. In deciding the totals, Oakland doesn't really factor in except that you know that they would probably get their share of runs. For the total to go over, Boston had to win. Since the stars were aligned for Boston to win the first game, it was a definite over. Because there has to be balance in the world, Oakland had to win game two and that was going to result in an under.
You can't separate reality from the game. Just ask Barry Bonds.
This allows me to continue my diatribe against Oakland. After some of the comments about my opinions, I'd like to show that they are more deductions than opinions. So hear me out for moment before you make your opinion...
The Bay area was a hotbed for steriod distribution and usage. Some of the biggest names in baseball that have been exposed can be associated with the Bay area - Barry Bonds in San Francisco, Jose Canseco in Oakland, Jason Giambi in New York but came over from Oakland. None of these guys are in the Bay area anymore. There is a reason for that. There is a reason that homeruns are dropping off. I think that there are 3 teams of the 5 or 6 that seem to generate a lot of steroid news that are going to play a big role in baseball, baseball gambling, and fantasy baseball this season. Oakland, San Francisco, and Baltimore are going to have some kind of impact this season.
Oakland is going to have a negative impact. They are the ones most hurt by the "House"-cleaning. They have completely disassociated themselves from anyone with steroid implications, except for Cust. But Cust is an admitted user. They are relying on youth to get them through these dark times and back into contention. That contention is a few years in the future. I'm sure they realize it and they are working with that strategy. I think that Oakland has a lot to hide. I think steroids are the only thing that has kept Street pitching the amount that he has. Where hitters are using enhancement drugs to improve their eye and power, pitchers are using them for their recuperative qualities. Hudson leaves Oakland and he drops way off; Mulder leaves Oakland and is plagued by injuries; Zito leaves Oakland and he is lackluster; and the list goes on. Look at the hitters that have left Oakland, too. I'd believe Oakland if they stood up and said they were the cleanest team in baseball now. Everyone knows that when the heat goes up, get the goods out of the house.
San Francisco I believe will have a positive impact. They had the most scrutiny on them with Bonds. Lots and lots of heat... Ever since the rumors started about Bonds, San Francisco has been playing with a lot of eyes on them. They had to keep a clean house so that if Bonds was found guilty that they could plead innocence due to ignorance and not be sucked down into that black hole with him. With Bonds gone, the heat won't be nearly as bad. The relief of pressure on the team should give them one really good season. It's just reality. Relieve some of the stress and performance will go up.
Finally, Baltimore will probably have a little of both. It's negative because they still have steroid possibilities in their clubhouse. Positive because they are closer to D.C. and the eyes will begin focusing on them. Pressure in Baltimore is going to make life much easier in San Fran and Arizona (number 4 on my list). The Ster-muda Triangle begins in Oakland, runs to Baltimore, and then passes through Arizona on it's way back to the Bay. Just ask Eric Byrnes. On my list of don't drafts were Byrnes and Street. Go figure why.
Baltimore's positive impact is going to be absorbing the heat so the other teams can prosper. At the heart of the conspiracy is Oakland, and I think they are being protected by the other organizations. It's collusion and it has been going on for awhile. Selig knows, the White House knows, and the public is soon to know if they haven't figured it out for themselves yet. Oakland created this race of supermen, then sold them to other teams. Baltimore, Texas, and Arizona became happy customers. Then players started breaking down and breaking Yankee records. Oakland should have known better than to sell one of these supermen to Steinbrenner. The product was risky but not yet illegal. Steinbrenner was caught in a bad spot because he couldn't really sue Oakland over the defective product he bought and he couldn't return it. It wasn't illegal at the time. BAM! He caused enough of a stink about it though that it quickly became illegal and now the government is involved.
Hence, Oakland can't do well because that is the price they have to pay for starting this mess. Oakland almost destroyed the sport, but Selig, Steinbrenner, and the other power players have done well to keep it alive. I'm a Yankee-hater, Brave fan... A rebel, I guess... But I have to give a lot of respect to Steinbrenner for using his power and ego for something positive. He is trying to build a legitimate winning team no matter the cost in dollars. When he keeps being beaten out by these supermen, and historical records fall, the only way to set things right is to call "Foul!" At least he's done it under the table and baseball will survive because of it. Oakland should be thankful that they only have to lose for awhile.
If you don't believe me, just ask Canseco
