I started out not knowing my butt from a hole in the ground, and I'm sure that plenty of you still think the same thing. What I'm writing is a way to pass on some of what I've learned to the newbies and people interested in joining the NFBC. Most of what you read here is not something that I came up with myself, but rather deductions from what I have seen and experienced in the NFBC.
Back to the first two things I wrote. They weren't about what was actually written; they were about how you should approach the game.
The first thread was about watching the games. You can do all of the stat work in the world and read every boxscore and listen to every fantasy tout and read every magazine. When you end up on draft day, you are only going to be partially equipped with the tools you need to do well. You have to watch the games because there are many stories to be told about every at-bat. For me, watching that game and seeing how Street performed only validated the analysis that I had on him to begin with.
The second thread was about how to build a strategy. Again, you can listen to and read all of this double-speak and generalized information that is generated by flatlander fantasy touts (or to borrow a term from "No Country for Old Men" - linear thinkers). At the end of the day no matter how good you are, you are only going to have half of the story. To predict and prognosticate you have to be able to fill the holes in the story yourself and the story will be complex. Who cares whether I am right or wrong in my steroid conspiracy. The point is that I have a vision of what the truth may be and I built my team around it. Since I don't know how to post a picture or a graph in this forum, I will just have to tell you what I do know. In 2005 after the steroid rules were put in place, there was a significant drop in power. In 2006, these numbers picked back up. In 2007, with the investigation into steroids by the government, the numbers fell again. Now will 2008 follow the two-year pattern of 2005-2006 or will it take a different turn? If you went into the season not thinking about this, then most likely your projections and evaluations are off. You saw my story, and I think that we are going to see something different from 2006. I think the power numbers are going to stay low or get even lower. I don't believe they will increase.
So anyway, this brings me to the article that got emailed to all of us last night from MDC. Chris Bracke provided all of you new guys with something very important to consider when preparing for the season. If you already knew to do this, well then you are a step ahead of the game. Most of us have to learn the hard way that is a very important set of information and it is fundamental to setting strategy and developing a plan.
But be wary of information you get from these guys in the mainstream. The actual data that he provided CANNOT be used with the NFBC. His data is generalized to cover a wide variety of fantasy baseball formats. The numbers that he is using are also based on historical results. With no study into the historical figures, you won't understand WHY the numbers are what they are. I can give you a shovel, but you need to know how to use it.
Have a good weekend all. I will be back Monday with my analysis on Sunday night's game.
Doughboys, I'm not sure how I'm going to bet just yet. I'm a Braves' homer so my bias sways my judgment. I don't like Hudson starting and I'm not sure who is starting for Washington. But I do believe that this will be the last politio-socio-economic game until we get to the end of the season. What I can go ahead and tell you is to put your money on the Yankees being in the World Series. The next piece of marketing magic that Selig has in his plan, and to satisfy Steinbrenner, Game 7 of the 2008 World Series being played as the last game in Yankee Stadium. If you think about it, I just gave you two picks for the price of one. Take that to the bank. But, I'm not here touting information. I'm touting how to use the information that is out there.
Oh yeah, and Huston Street will not be the closer in Oakland at the end of the season
[ March 27, 2008, 10:02 AM: Message edited by: Jackstraw ]