PQS Observation

Post Reply
Cowboy Joe
Posts: 207
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2007 6:00 pm
Contact:

PQS Observation

Post by Cowboy Joe » Thu Apr 17, 2008 10:43 am

I'm new to and intrigued by the Pure Quality Start (PQS) approach to analyzing pitchers, but sometimes it produces a very different result than the fantasy stat line. For example, in this afternoon's game, Ted Lilly had a pitching line of:



6IP, 6H, 5ER, 3BB, 6K, 1 HR



which (if I understand it correctly) is worth a perfect PQS score of 5. However, in fantasy terms, his numbers are:



0 Win, 7.5 ERA, 1.5 WHIP, and 6 Ks



Can't say that I would have a warm fuzzy feeling if I were a Lilly owner today.



Thoughts??
I feel like I'm the Jerry Quarry of the NFBC.

kgrady
Posts: 277
Joined: Sun Mar 14, 2004 6:00 pm

PQS Observation

Post by kgrady » Thu Apr 17, 2008 2:12 pm

The scary thing for Ted Lilly owners, including me, is that this was far and away the best outing he's had so far. He failed to make it through 5 innings in his first three starts. I benched him for today's mediocre stat line.



Kevin
"Fear ... that's the other guy's problem!" - Lewis Winthorpe (Dan Akroyd) from Trading Places

bjoak
Posts: 2564
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 6:00 pm

PQS Observation

Post by bjoak » Thu Apr 17, 2008 3:16 pm

Originally posted by Cowboy Joe:

I'm new to and intrigued by the Pure Quality Start (PQS) approach to analyzing pitchers, but sometimes it produces a very different result than the fantasy stat line. For example, in this afternoon's game, Ted Lilly had a pitching line of:



6IP, 6H, 5ER, 3BB, 6K, 1 HR



which (if I understand it correctly) is worth a perfect PQS score of 5. However, in fantasy terms, his numbers are:



0 Win, 7.5 ERA, 1.5 WHIP, and 6 Ks



Can't say that I would have a warm fuzzy feeling if I were a Lilly owner today.



Thoughts?? It's exactly at the outer bounds of that system. You wouldn't have too many like this. Still, if you knew he allowed three walks, six hits, and a homerun, you would expect some damage which puts the outer bounds too far. I'd keep the IP and K rate the same and then say the walk # should be at least 4 less than the number of innings pitched. Drop the hits column altogether.



The homerun thing is ridiculous because one in six innings equals a 1.5 HR/9 rate which is ridiculously high. Pitchers with those homerun rates over a season have ERAs over 5. I'd suggest for the pitcher to get a perfect score he needs either a) 0 HRs or b) at least 2/3 of his balls in play to be groundballs.



I'm not saying this is the best way, but it is certainly a system that requires revision.



[ April 17, 2008, 09:18 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]
Chance favors the prepared mind.

Catch
Posts: 193
Joined: Thu Feb 07, 2008 6:00 pm
Contact:

PQS Observation

Post by Catch » Thu Apr 17, 2008 4:27 pm

I'm a fan of PQS in determining pitchers to target for drafts and/or pickups via waiver wire. Only stat that i don't account for in my evaluation is the home run. i give a point to a pitcher if he allows 3 earned runs or less. If a pitcher allows 3 solo shots he scores a point; unlike, the real PQS scoring he loses this point.

bjoak
Posts: 2564
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 6:00 pm

PQS Observation

Post by bjoak » Thu Apr 17, 2008 4:27 pm

Then again, a regular quality start produces a 6.00 ERA, which doesn't seem very...qualitative. I guess it is perfect if you'll settle for crappy quality starts.
Chance favors the prepared mind.

User avatar
KJ Duke
Posts: 6574
Joined: Fri Jan 23, 2004 6:00 pm

PQS Observation

Post by KJ Duke » Thu Apr 17, 2008 4:44 pm

Originally posted by bjoak:

Then again, a regular quality start produces a 6.00 ERA, which doesn't seem very...qualitative. I guess it is perfect if you'll settle for crappy quality starts. Minimum QS of 6IP and 3ER would be 4.50 not 6.00.

bjoak
Posts: 2564
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 6:00 pm

PQS Observation

Post by bjoak » Thu Apr 17, 2008 5:22 pm

You are correct, sir. I was thinking it was 4 runs, displaying my ignorance of worthless, er, traditional baseball stats.
Chance favors the prepared mind.

User avatar
KJ Duke
Posts: 6574
Joined: Fri Jan 23, 2004 6:00 pm

PQS Observation

Post by KJ Duke » Thu Apr 17, 2008 6:50 pm

Originally posted by bjoak:

You are correct, sir. I was thinking it was 4 runs, displaying my ignorance of worthless, er, traditional baseball stats. I suspected it was just a slip of the tongue/spreadsheet.

Loops
Posts: 26
Joined: Tue Mar 18, 2008 6:00 pm
Contact:

PQS Observation

Post by Loops » Mon Apr 21, 2008 10:04 am

I often find the PQS ratings are more helpful when referencing downside boundaries. Mainly looking at DIS % as a way to gauge risk and reliability. It seems to correspond to traditional fantasy scoring success slightly better than trying to project PQS DOM starts. By avoiding active DIS starts more than finding DOM starts you can better utilize the PQS ratings to your advantage in my opinion.



Especially noteworthy is young P who have trending downward DIS % while staying steady or growing DOM% (obviously). Ian Snell good example here.

Or the converse of that in older P. Greg Maddux is a good example. His progressively increasing DIS rate is a strong warning sign to me.



Just one man's spin on PQS, it's limitations and benefits.



Let Go Mets.

Post Reply