TB/BOS, make your pick

[Jackstraw]

Odds for the game:

TB J. Shields +143

BOS J. Beckett -158

O/U 8-



Well, after a split yesterday I'm a little leary to make a pick on a game that Mother Nature cheated us out of... But what the heck it's James Shields vs. the Bosox



Shields has absolutely no luck in Fenway. Since he came into the league he is 0-3 there, toting around a hefty 10.13 ERA and 1.97 WHIP. He hasn't given up many homers there but the Sox managed to chalk up 11 runs in the 4.2 IP he suffered through in 2008. On the other hand, Shields is a good play against Boston when at Tropicana Field.



Beckett isn't exactly stellar against Tampa either. In short, he is pretty much average against the Rays. This makes for a nice O/U formula. Take Shields 10.13 ERA, add it to Beckett's 2.06 from 2008 (since the Rays are much different than any year before), and you get a number well over the 8- the oddsmakers are giving us.



I'm going to add a note to this one. If this game had been played yesterday, the over and Boston were locks. But Mother Nature played her hand, and that can have an effect on the outcome. It is called random chance, and it is the bettor's worst enemy. Bet this game at your own risk. Personally, I'm only laying a half bet on the over and Boston. And then I'm taking the rest of the day off



[ April 07, 2009, 02:48 PM: Message edited by: Jackstraw ]

[graybros]

Originally posted by Jackstraw:

Odds for the game:

TB J. Shields +143

BOS J. Beckett -158

O/U 8-



Well, after a split yesterday I'm a little leary to make a pick on a game that Mother Nature cheated us out of... But what the heck it's James Shields vs. the Bosox



Shields has absolutely no luck in Fenway. Since he came into the league he is 0-3 there, toting around a hefty 10.13 ERA and 1.97 WHIP. He hasn't given up many homers there but the Sox managed to chalk up 11 runs in the 4.2 IP he suffered through in 2008. On the other hand, Shields is a good play against Boston when at Tropicana Field.



Beckett isn't exactly stellar against Tampa either. In short, he is pretty much average against the Rays. This makes for a nice O/U formula. Take Shields 10.13 ERA, add it to Beckett's 2.06 from 2008 (since the Rays are much different than any year before), and you get a number well over the 8- the oddsmakers are giving us.



I'm going to add a note to this one. If this game had been played yesterday, the over and Boston were locks. But Mother Nature played her hand, and that can have an effect on the outcome. It is called random chance, and it is the bettor's worst enemy. Bet this game at your own risk. Personally, I'm only laying a half bet on the over and Boston. And then I'm taking the rest of the day off Nice call George...looks like another win. Where in Tennessee are you from? I grew up in Columbia, TN

[Navel Lint]

Originally posted by graybros:

quote:Originally posted by Jackstraw:

Odds for the game:

TB J. Shields +143

BOS J. Beckett -158

O/U 8-



Well, after a split yesterday I'm a little leary to make a pick on a game that Mother Nature cheated us out of... But what the heck it's James Shields vs. the Bosox



Shields has absolutely no luck in Fenway. Since he came into the league he is 0-3 there, toting around a hefty 10.13 ERA and 1.97 WHIP. He hasn't given up many homers there but the Sox managed to chalk up 11 runs in the 4.2 IP he suffered through in 2008. On the other hand, Shields is a good play against Boston when at Tropicana Field.



Beckett isn't exactly stellar against Tampa either. In short, he is pretty much average against the Rays. This makes for a nice O/U formula. Take Shields 10.13 ERA, add it to Beckett's 2.06 from 2008 (since the Rays are much different than any year before), and you get a number well over the 8- the oddsmakers are giving us.



I'm going to add a note to this one. If this game had been played yesterday, the over and Boston were locks. But Mother Nature played her hand, and that can have an effect on the outcome. It is called random chance, and it is the bettor's worst enemy. Bet this game at your own risk. Personally, I'm only laying a half bet on the over and Boston. And then I'm taking the rest of the day off Nice call George...looks like another win. Where in Tennessee are you from? I grew up in Columbia, TN [/QUOTE]A push with the two picks, a loss after the "juice/vig/whatever the local term is"



I've never been a big fan of the O/U bet. It's hard enough to pick winners and stay ahead of the juice, let alone try and guess the final score.



Keep the picks coming though, it's interesting to read your take on the games.

[sportsbettingman]

Originally posted by rucrew2:

quote:Originally posted by graybros:

quote:Originally posted by Jackstraw:

Odds for the game:

TB J. Shields +143

BOS J. Beckett -158

O/U 8-



Well, after a split yesterday I'm a little leary to make a pick on a game that Mother Nature cheated us out of... But what the heck it's James Shields vs. the Bosox



Shields has absolutely no luck in Fenway. Since he came into the league he is 0-3 there, toting around a hefty 10.13 ERA and 1.97 WHIP. He hasn't given up many homers there but the Sox managed to chalk up 11 runs in the 4.2 IP he suffered through in 2008. On the other hand, Shields is a good play against Boston when at Tropicana Field.



Beckett isn't exactly stellar against Tampa either. In short, he is pretty much average against the Rays. This makes for a nice O/U formula. Take Shields 10.13 ERA, add it to Beckett's 2.06 from 2008 (since the Rays are much different than any year before), and you get a number well over the 8- the oddsmakers are giving us.



I'm going to add a note to this one. If this game had been played yesterday, the over and Boston were locks. But Mother Nature played her hand, and that can have an effect on the outcome. It is called random chance, and it is the bettor's worst enemy. Bet this game at your own risk. Personally, I'm only laying a half bet on the over and Boston. And then I'm taking the rest of the day off Nice call George...looks like another win. Where in Tennessee are you from? I grew up in Columbia, TN [/QUOTE]A push with the two picks, a loss after the "juice/vig/whatever the local term is"



I've never been a big fan of the O/U bet. It's hard enough to pick winners and stay ahead of the juice, let alone try and guess the final score.



Keep the picks coming though, it's interesting to read your take on the games.

[/QUOTE]Actually he's sitting at 3 wins, 2 loss so far.



I LOVE over/unders in baseball.



Keep it up Jackstraw! I know that YOU know it's rough to buck the curse of posting picks...but I think you can pull it off this year!



~Lance



[ April 07, 2009, 06:43 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

[Jackstraw]

Hey graybros,

I'm in Chattanooga... Not exactly what I would call the baseball capital of the world At least we got something to look forward to in the Braves this year, so that might get people interested again. Hope so anyway...



You must like Columbias if you left the one in TN to go to the one in MO

[Jackstraw]

Let's see, assuming a $1000 bankroll to start the season and betting the actual dollar value on each game to keep the math easy, then I am sitting at $1086 right now (using half the dollar value for yesterday's bets). Once I lose the $1000 bankroll then I will quit posting my picks.



The actual record is 3-2, but with baseball betting that really doesn't mean much. I could have a losing record and still be making money, and vice versa.



I'm a sucker for the O/U bets. I'm too optimistic and I almost always take the over if I'm going to bet it. That is one reason why I started betting online. All of the local books caught onto my optimism and started bumping the totals up on me by a half a run or full run on every game.



Hey Lance, it is a curse. I almost guarantee that Matt Kemp read my post picking SD over LAD the other night. If you read the Yahoo postgame report, I think Kemp's quote was directed at me... And I don't think he liked me alluding to the fact that Peavy owned them



And then Crawford must have caught yesterday's prognostication. That was his motivation for making the awesome play on Bay's hit to throw out Youkilis at third. If he hadn't trapped that ball and made the smart play at third, the Red Sox could have blown that game wide open.

[DOUGHBOYS]

A bettor's favorite word after the game's over...IF...

[Jackstraw]

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

A bettor's favorite word after the game's over...IF... I'll be doggoned! I knew we would eventually agree on something



Whoever said love makes the world go 'round, never bet on a game... "If" makes the world go 'round!



Now, "if" only I hadn't started Ian Snell last night...

[Navel Lint]

I don't like betting the O/U, but when I do I always take the under because your always winning til it's over

[Jackstraw]

Originally posted by rucrew2:

I don't like betting the O/U, but when I do I always take the under because your always winning til it's over LOL, that is the exact opposite of my rationale!



There is nothing worse than betting the under and then the teams score 600 runs in the first inning, and for some reason it always happens to me. It ruins the whole experience of watching the game.



Two of the most glorious feelings are betting the over and they cover it in the first, and then the second is being a half run down in the bottom of the ninth and the home team knocks one out for the win!



I like betting the over 'cause you're always losing until you win... I guess I find losing more interesting

[Navel Lint]

I'm watching the Fla/Wash game today. CB Buckner is the home plate ump. Very tight strikezone. 13 walks in the game so far . Keep that in mind four days from now if he's behind the plate for a pitcher that needs to work corners to survive.