Overstuffed Pigs_on_Draft_Day

JohnZ
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Post by JohnZ » Tue Mar 18, 2008 9:59 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by UFS:

Butler will be a 1B after first month. .290 18-95 for him this year. .290? think higher [/QUOTE]He could easily... Eddie G grabbed him right before i wanted to..



But he also grabbed Beltran at 2.11 (5th pick)

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Post by Chest Rockwell » Tue Mar 18, 2008 10:00 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Duke or Daddy: is there anything you disagee with about the Zman profile...



Carlos Zambrano - Z's ERA has risen the past 4 years. WHIP ratio the past two years is unacceptable as a front line starter. lot of pitches on his arm. Count me with Gordon on this one.

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Post by Raskol » Tue Mar 18, 2008 10:03 am

How long until Z-Man slugs Soto?
If you're going to be crazy, you have to get paid for it or else you're going to be locked up.--Hunter S. Thompson

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Post by Gordon Gekko » Tue Mar 18, 2008 10:04 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

Nah- I am actually a little shocked Longoria is not. i put his chances at about 40% of making it, but maybe the rays have their minds made up no matter what. if he goes down, and he doesn't produce, we won't see him until Sept. same goes for bruce, rasmus, kershaw, etc...

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Post by JohnZ » Tue Mar 18, 2008 10:05 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Duke or Daddy: is there anything you disagee with about the Zman profile...



Carlos Zambrano - Z's ERA has risen the past 4 years. WHIP ratio the past two years is unacceptable as a front line starter. lot of pitches on his arm. killer thing for me here is drop of 33K's in 2 more innings last year... :rolleyes:

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Post by Gordon Gekko » Tue Mar 18, 2008 10:07 am

Originally posted by UFS:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Duke or Daddy: is there anything you disagee with about the Zman profile...



Carlos Zambrano - Z's ERA has risen the past 4 years. WHIP ratio the past two years is unacceptable as a front line starter. lot of pitches on his arm. killer thing for me here is drop of 33K's in 2 more innings last year... :rolleyes:
[/QUOTE]in my most recent projections i have lirano AND cueto as better than Zman!!!! :D

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Post by Gordon Gekko » Tue Mar 18, 2008 10:08 am

anyone think braun's steals will be single digits this year? i almost got sucked into picking him over miggy ;)

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KJ Duke
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Post by KJ Duke » Tue Mar 18, 2008 10:09 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Duke or Daddy: is there anything you disagee with about the Zman profile...



Carlos Zambrano - Z's ERA has risen the past 4 years. WHIP ratio the past two years is unacceptable as a front line starter. lot of pitches on his arm. Correction, ERA has risen 3 of last 4 seasons.

From '03 to '06 his ERA was +/- 0.33 of the mean each yr = statistical noise.



Do you know what this number is GG?

3.35-1.26, .209 BA against

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KJ Duke
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Post by KJ Duke » Tue Mar 18, 2008 10:12 am

Originally posted by Raskolnikov:

How long until Z-Man slugs Soto? Far more likely Barrett slugs someone.

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Post by billywaz » Tue Mar 18, 2008 10:16 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Soon to be overstuffed pigs?

Braun and Weeks





Weeks

A swollen right hand is going to force Milwaukee Brewers second baseman Rickie Weeks to take a few days off. Weeks has been a strikeout machine at the plate, punching out 20 times in 40 at-bats while batting a meager .125. He also has been erratic in the field, committing a team-high five errors. Ah, the time off certainly can't HURT him!



Maybe he comes back like he did last September and tears it up. As long as he doesn't get sent down, even if he hits .240, he WILL steal 30+ bags.



Bank on that. ;)

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Post by JohnZ » Tue Mar 18, 2008 10:16 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Duke or Daddy: is there anything you disagee with about the Zman profile...



Carlos Zambrano - Z's ERA has risen the past 4 years. WHIP ratio the past two years is unacceptable as a front line starter. lot of pitches on his arm. Correction, ERA has risen 3 of last 4 seasons.

From '03 to '06 his ERA was +/- 0.33 of the mean each yr = statistical noise.



Do you know what this number is GG?

3.35-1.26, .209 BA against
[/QUOTE]The numbers of a good SP?



Here's Z's home stats from 2007:

Home 17 17 6 9 0 1 0 101.2 99 61 56 7 53 80 4.96 1.50

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Post by Andy Tu La Daddy » Tue Mar 18, 2008 10:19 am

If Z's arm was hurting behind closed doors, the Cubs would NEVER have signed him to that crazy contract after the Prior/Wood contract history.



The decline in performance has been more mental than physical. He is an amazing athelete and I am convinced that his numbers will improve across the board this year. He has less worries than ever in his life and his mental game will be at an all time high.



I also like those cold winter months in Wrigley followed by division games against St. Louis and Pittsburgh (Houston will be tought for him).



What are your stat projections for Cueto?



I will guarantee that Zambrano outperforms Cueto by at least 5 wins, 25Ks and a half run in the ERA department.
There's no crying in Fantasy Baseball

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Post by NorCalAtlFan » Tue Mar 18, 2008 10:24 am

Originally posted by Andy Tu La Daddy:

If Z's arm was hurting behind closed doors, the Cubs would NEVER have signed him to that crazy contract after the Prior/Wood contract history.



The decline in performance has been more mental than physical. He is an amazing athelete and I am convinced that his numbers will improve across the board this year. He has less worries than ever in his life and his mental game will be at an all time high.



I also like those cold winter months in Wrigley followed by division games against St. Louis and Pittsburgh (Houston will be tought for him).



What are your stat projections for Cueto?



I will guarantee that Zambrano outperforms Cueto by at least 5 wins, 25Ks and a half run in the ERA department. I'd have to agree here. I like Cueto, but no way does he outperform Zambrano. I have reservations about Carlos, evidenced by me passing him up in favor of another question mark, but he's still going to be a decent #1 for someone. Cueto isn't there yet.

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Post by headhunters » Tue Mar 18, 2008 11:36 am

headhunter prediction: i won't draft zambrano- he is a cub. BUT he will do close to what kj duke said. 3 reasons.1) the catcher is a catcher this year 2) the defense will be a defense this year 3) the weather in chicago and anywhere east of the rockies is gonna be really cold till may 20th or so. ortiz- i drafted him- if he stays healthy and i think he will- he will rake. no problem with "the utility spot" geez- you prepare 4 months and you are worried about "the utility spot" wow. ugla is ugly- but without looking i bet he is top 2 in homers, top 3 in rbis and top 2 in runs the last 2 years at second base. he could hit 240 or 260 or 280. matt holiday could hit 300 320 340. why even ichuro could hit 310 330 350. those could happen. ugla round 10- those guys round 1.

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Post by KJ Duke » Tue Mar 18, 2008 11:49 am

Originally posted by UFS:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Duke or Daddy: is there anything you disagee with about the Zman profile...



Carlos Zambrano - Z's ERA has risen the past 4 years. WHIP ratio the past two years is unacceptable as a front line starter. lot of pitches on his arm. Correction, ERA has risen 3 of last 4 seasons.

From '03 to '06 his ERA was +/- 0.33 of the mean each yr = statistical noise.



Do you know what this number is GG?

3.35-1.26, .209 BA against
[/QUOTE]The numbers of a good SP?

[/b][/QUOTE]Nice try John, those are Carlos numbers from May-September after two things happened that were bugging him: 1) contract resolved, 2) M Barrett traded.



3.35-1.26 for the last 5 months of the season, which is scarily close to what he averaged the previous 4 seasons (3.13-1.24). Looks like the same pitcher to me. And for the BP injury-freak analysts out there, how is it that a guy who's hurt has numbers that get better as the season wears on? That argument just doesn't have any merit.



Could he get hurt this season, sure, probably 1 out 5 or so starters get hurt every season. Those are probably the odds he gets hurt too, although as durable as he's been you could very reasonably call his odds lower than average. Lackey was drafted a round ahead a of him, and he's already hurt. I'll take Z all day everyday as the 18th starter off the board, which is where I drafted him on Saturday.

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Post by KJ Duke » Tue Mar 18, 2008 11:56 am

Originally posted by UFS:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Duke or Daddy: is there anything you disagee with about the Zman profile...



Carlos Zambrano - Z's ERA has risen the past 4 years. WHIP ratio the past two years is unacceptable as a front line starter. lot of pitches on his arm. killer thing for me here is drop of 33K's in 2 more innings last year... :rolleyes:
[/QUOTE]His K rate over the prior 4 seasons was 7.1, 8.1, 8.1, 8.8. In '07 it was 7.4, and after May it was 7.7. That number seems to fit pretty well in his career numbers.



On top of that, Rothschild has been beating on him for a couple years to be more efficient with his pitches, pitch to contact, to get deeper into games rather than try to strike out every hitter. And last year, he finally had Z saying thats what he was trying to do.

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Post by GOD Loves You » Tue Mar 18, 2008 11:57 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Let's hear em. Here's some of mine...



David Ortiz - Never lock up your DH spot that early. He's a year older on gimpy knees. stay away.



Carlos Beltran - When a CF gets both knees operated on, that means STAY AWAY. sb's could go right down the toilet.



Matt Kemp - Great #'s but is getting squeezed for PT. if he continues making lacidasical mistakes, his AB could be chopped significantly



Carlos Zambrano - Z's ERA has risen the past 4 years. WHIP ratio the past two years is unacceptable as a front line starter. lot of pitches on his arm.



Jim Thome - Again, locking up a DH spot early with a guy who is VERY brittle. will sit the when the sox are in the NL.



Jason Bay - never the same after knee surgery



Dan Uggla - .250's isn't what you are looking for from a 2B with no speed



Carlos Delgado - I watched the guy play last year, and he was downright brutal at the plate/ mechanics looked all messed up. Mark, for once I actually agree with ALL of you sentiments here. The sad thing is a lot of teams have multiple players from this list.



I do agree with KJ as well regarding Howie. I like Kendrick for what he is...maybe 15hr's with maybe 15sb's with a very high AVG...not for what others "think" he is.



I disagree about Butler though. I think the Royals suprise some teams this year and actually score some runs and win some games.



Zambrano is going to kill a lot of pitching staffs this season.



I actually think Billingsley could hinder some teams as well.....the rookies, who knows. I did see too many teams put to much stock in them IMO. I usually love the young'uns but couldn't get behind them for 100K this season....minor league stats count, correct?



Nice post BTW!

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Post by GOD Loves You » Tue Mar 18, 2008 11:59 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

Nah- I am actually a little shocked Longoria is not. i put his chances at about 40% of making it, but maybe the rays have their minds made up no matter what. if he goes down, and he doesn't produce, we won't see him until Sept. same goes for bruce, rasmus, kershaw, etc... [/QUOTE]money, money, money. Aybar will be 3B for a while this season. Rays looking towards the future and don't want to start that clock with Longoria. I think some players and fans are going to be displeased with this situation.

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Post by sportsbettingman » Tue Mar 18, 2008 12:08 pm

FWIW...I like Zambrano this season.



No worries. Gloom and doom. He's one of the few durable elite and proven starters in baseball.



Five straight seasons of 31+ starts.



Career 3.41 ERA 1.29 WHIP, close to 16 wins a year, and damn near a K per IP.



Steady Eddie!



(...and he looks to be plenty focused for 2008)



...and oh, yes...BORN in 1981...gimme a break on washed up talk or heavy load.



People must be buying into Shandlers doom forecast.



He's predicting a career worst year based on a poor first half of 2007??? Keep crunching those numbers and not watching the players play. Wouldn't a worn down arm be reflected in a poor 2nd half vs. first half?



~Lance



[ March 18, 2008, 06:23 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]
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Post by Less than Dave » Tue Mar 18, 2008 12:19 pm

DONTRELLE WILLIS, Loney, BARRY ZITO, JOE BLANTON, AJ Burnett, Marmol, Cueto, Delgado, Pujols, Beltran, Zimmerman, J. Upton

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Post by freddiezee » Tue Mar 18, 2008 12:19 pm

I disagree with Ortiz......I think he finishes the year as one of the top 15 hitters, so it is worth filling the UT spot early for him.

I agree on Zambrano completely.

Some of my overstuffed hitters are Chipper, Manny, Kemp, Kendrick, Loney.

Mostly, I think a lot of young players were taken too high on draft day. I think the hype machine gets rolling on these guys (and I agree that they will improve) but they start getting taken in front of the guys who already perform at the level that the young guy is hoping to get to. Sometimes people lock in on a young guy and just HAVE TO get him, so they take him so early that they pass up on the 29 year old guy who has produced well for 5 years.

Just my two cents.

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Post by Gordon Gekko » Tue Mar 18, 2008 12:25 pm

Originally posted by headhunters:

headhunter prediction: i won't draft zambrano- he is a cub. BUT he will do close to what kj duke said. 3 reasons.1) the catcher is a catcher this year 2) the defense will be a defense this year 3) the weather in chicago and anywhere east of the rockies is gonna be really cold till may 20th or so. ortiz- i drafted him- if he stays healthy and i think he will- he will rake. no problem with "the utility spot" geez- you prepare 4 months and you are worried about "the utility spot" wow. ugla is ugly- but without looking i bet he is top 2 in homers, top 3 in rbis and top 2 in runs the last 2 years at second base. he could hit 240 or 260 or 280. matt holiday could hit 300 320 340. why even ichuro could hit 310 330 350. those could happen. ugla round 10- those guys round 1. Gekko and doughy in one corner. Headhunter in the other. I know which side wins. You should be taking notes. No offense of course

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Post by sportsbettingman » Tue Mar 18, 2008 12:28 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by headhunters:

headhunter prediction: i won't draft zambrano- he is a cub. BUT he will do close to what kj duke said. 3 reasons.1) the catcher is a catcher this year 2) the defense will be a defense this year 3) the weather in chicago and anywhere east of the rockies is gonna be really cold till may 20th or so. ortiz- i drafted him- if he stays healthy and i think he will- he will rake. no problem with "the utility spot" geez- you prepare 4 months and you are worried about "the utility spot" wow. ugla is ugly- but without looking i bet he is top 2 in homers, top 3 in rbis and top 2 in runs the last 2 years at second base. he could hit 240 or 260 or 280. matt holiday could hit 300 320 340. why even ichuro could hit 310 330 350. those could happen. ugla round 10- those guys round 1. Gekko and doughy in one corner. Headhunter in the other. I know which side wins. You should be taking notes. No offense of course [/QUOTE]Even the most proven players have many "miss" picks on their draft board each year...both on players they selected...and on those they passed on.



Don't kid yourself into thinking you know it all just yet...even if Dan and Childs both agreed with you.



We'll see soon enough.



~Lance
"The only reason for time is so that everything doesn't happen at once."

~Albert Einstein

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Post by Gordon Gekko » Tue Mar 18, 2008 12:29 pm

Originally posted by GOD Loves You:

Mark, for once I actually agree with ALL of you sentiments here. The sad thing is a lot of teams have multiple players from this list.



I do agree with KJ as well regarding Howie. I like Kendrick for what he is...maybe 15hr's with maybe 15sb's with a very high AVG...not for what others "think" he is.



I disagree about Butler though. I think the Royals suprise some teams this year and actually score some runs and win some games.



Zambrano is going to kill a lot of pitching staffs this season.



Nice post BTW! Thanks patrick.



As for kendrick hitting homers, it's kinda tough when you beat the ball on the ground all day

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Post by Gordon Gekko » Tue Mar 18, 2008 12:33 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

FWIW...I like Zambrano this season.



No worries. Gloom and doom. He's one of the few durable elite and proven starters in baseball.



Five straight seasons of 31+ starts.



Career 3.41 ERA 1.29 WHIP, close to 16 wins a year, and damn near a K per IP.



Steady Eddie!



(...and he looks to be plenty focused for 2008)



...and oh, yes...BORN in 1981...gimme a break on washed up talk or heavy load.



People must be buying into Shandlers doom forecast.



He's predicting a career worst year based on a poor first half of 2007??? Keep crunching those numbers and not watching the players play. Wouldn't a worn down arm be reflected in a poor 2nd half vs. first half?



~Lance Lance - your a few steps behind. Career numbers don't mean anything. It's "what have u done lately". Lately zman has been a bun as a frontline starter. Old man smoltz is better than him. I'd even take maine and gallardo over zman. Zman is the "sucker's bet" in vegas. Book it.

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