Stock Market

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Mon Nov 17, 2008 4:24 am

bjoak- i think where we are at in society is - people start branding someone as mccarthy the minute they want someone to admit they are socialist. you are for something " as long as it works" this could be a really long message responding to that- but suffice it to say that " as long as it works" is the scary term- not socialism. i am not mcarthy. last time i checked- most european countires have socialism and admit it- or have poltical parties that admit it. i just am getting sick of the " spin" that people put on things. also- i think for an essay you should have your students study mccarthy. i think you will find that the press has " spun" that tale pretty well.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Nov 17, 2008 5:00 am

Duke - if you had "mad money" would you want it in the market now or wait until after the auto industry bailout talks are conducted midweek?

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Mon Nov 17, 2008 5:27 am

THis is truly the Dead Zone for fantasy baseball. When the NFBC message boards are lit up with political mudslinging and policy debates, you know that there is no news. I looked through three local papers and got a combined one paragraph reading that Daryl Rasner (who occupied a spot on my team for a month) was sold to Japan. Throw me a bone...please.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Nov 17, 2008 5:54 am

Originally posted by Schwks:

THis is truly the Dead Zone for fantasy baseball. When the NFBC message boards are lit up with political mudslinging and policy debates, you know that there is no news. I looked through three local papers and got a combined one paragraph reading that Daryl Rasner (who occupied a spot on my team for a month) was sold to Japan. Throw me a bone...please. Political mudslinging, no. Opinions on political decisions, yes. Policy debates, yes. You're right, there is absolutely nothing going on with baseball until the domino effect starts with free agents. So why not, Hell, the people we voted for aren't doing the job, maybe we can look back on this thread a year from now and see how many of OUR ideas are being implemented or how wrong we were. Maybe in that same year, we'll look back and think about why we were so upset in the first place. At least I hope so.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Nov 17, 2008 5:55 am

Head, you spin like no one I've ever seen. Read your short paragraph again. You spun 3 things in your own way just there. You shall henceforth be known as Sir Spin a Lot.

Shwks, good post!

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Mon Nov 17, 2008 6:28 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Duke - if you had "mad money" would you want it in the market now or wait until after the auto industry bailout talks are conducted midweek? Don't think the auto bailout discussion is much of a catalyst either way. Market direction remains lower. Buy into individual stocks on pronounced weakness, it's a long road ahead.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Nov 17, 2008 6:36 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

Okay, I'd say I am more or less satisfied that you are non-partisan. Kind of unusual to have such strong feelings about the gd speaker of the house unless you are die-hard for the other ticket, imo. Michael Savage is a creepy right wing talk show host whom I guess is a little east of republican at this point. I do not like creepy left wing talk shows either for the record.

You are thinking of our friend Chest Rockwell who has the name to fit a WWE gay rights activist. I guess it is about class and the way someone carries themself. It is hard to judge any public figure. We see them on tv, hear their sound bytes, follow their career, but we never really know them.

Seeing Pelosi numerous times in various media situations, arrogance and self-righteousness pervades every sentence. I've agreed with what she has said sometimes, but by the time she is done spouting that idea, I start looking at the other side.

I am looking forward to her responses when things go wrong somewhere with a Democratic President, Senate, and House. It is very easy to criticize this administration, they made mistakes at every turn. Pelosi took almost too much joy in railing against it, secretly counting votes in her head while speaking. It'll be interesting to see what tone she takes when it is her party on the hot seat. Thankfully, there is not much chance of her being in the Oval office, other than visiting, since Obama and Clinton tower over her and there is the consolation that only one Speaker of the House has ever gone on to be President.

What I want in a public figure is someone that shows class, is bright, thinks of what is right for America and not themselves, and goes through with an idea or plan, be it right or wrong to me, without hitting others over the head with it. Nancy Pelosi fits none of that criteria.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Nov 17, 2008 6:38 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Duke - if you had "mad money" would you want it in the market now or wait until after the auto industry bailout talks are conducted midweek? Don't think the auto bailout discussion is much of a catalyst either way. Market direction remains lower. Buy into individual stocks on pronounced weakness, it's a long road ahead. [/QUOTE]another 50,000 employees cut by Citi! will the market be in the 7,000's b4 long?

[ November 17, 2008, 12:45 PM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Nov 17, 2008 6:39 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Duke - if you had "mad money" would you want it in the market now or wait until after the auto industry bailout talks are conducted midweek? Don't think the auto bailout discussion is much of a catalyst either way. Market direction remains lower. Buy into individual stocks on pronounced weakness, it's a long road ahead. [/QUOTE]Is there any sector of stocks that look better than another?

[ November 17, 2008, 12:40 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Mon Nov 17, 2008 6:48 am

Great posts, gentlemen.

Without discussing my own political offiliation (as I readily admit that I am opinionated and partisan), let me just say that I did a little lunchtime reading, in this case the US Constitution (again). In the seven Articles and the twenty-seven amendments, no where did I find anything related to either house of Congress being given the duty or obligation to bail out private enterprise, no matter how frequently visited by the "foul-up" fairy.

Of specific focus to me is Article I, wherein the Constitution vests powers in the legislative branch. Section 8 gives Congress powers to lay and collect taxes with the express purpose of paying debts incurred in providing for the common defense and general welfare of the United States. These bailouts targeted to specific industries and business entities I do not believe are what the founding fathers had in mind when they were thinking "general welfare".

In short, not only do I not think it sound fiscal policy nor sound economic policy, I do not believe it should be considered constitutional.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Mon Nov 17, 2008 7:03 am

well the good news is- the dems, and the 1st bush along with several republicans; believe that judges can make law- so they can just ask the supreme court to make it that way. funny- with all this focus on education- not much in the way of taking a look at the constitution exists.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Nov 17, 2008 7:06 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Great posts, gentlemen.

let me just say that I did a little lunchtime reading, in this case the US Constitution (again). Do you kick back with 'War and Peace'?

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Mon Nov 17, 2008 7:11 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Great posts, gentlemen.

let me just say that I did a little lunchtime reading, in this case the US Constitution (again). Do you kick back with 'War and Peace'?

[/QUOTE]Nope. Plato's "Republic".

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Mon Nov 17, 2008 7:29 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Duke - if you had "mad money" would you want it in the market now or wait until after the auto industry bailout talks are conducted midweek? Don't think the auto bailout discussion is much of a catalyst either way. Market direction remains lower. Buy into individual stocks on pronounced weakness, it's a long road ahead. [/QUOTE]Is there any sector of stocks that look better than another? [/QUOTE]Defensive stocks such as healthcare, grocery stores, food/bev producers, utilities, will certainly have the best fundamentals. If you can find cheap stocks in these sectors they should do well, so long as you are not buying into "problem" companies. But these are few and far between; most are expensive on a relative basis and you have to question their relative valuation gap versus cyclicals. If the economy and market continue down, cash might be better than defensive stocks anyway - and when things begin to improve they will underperform. So how do you win buying this sector now? Not much upside here.

Two sectors that are dead to me are consumer discretionary cos and financial institutions. The debt bubble will hang over these sectors for several years, making them poor relative performers. You can generate some trading returns if you're lucky given their volatility, but you're playing with fire.

Technology will recover nicely, but I think its too early for them. Estimates for '09 need to come down a lot, once they do I'd buy them; probably Q1 next year.

Interesting areas now are industrial, commodity, energy. They're dirt cheap as they've been the epicenter of forced liquidations by hedge funds. Estimates for them will be coming down too, so the question is now or later ... but based on valuations, these are sectors I most want to own now, even knowing there could be another leg down. Back to one of the original topics - we are pumping money into the system - this will lead to a weaker dollar, higher commodity prices and higher export demand. All of which are good for industrial/commodity/energy.

[ November 17, 2008, 03:07 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Nov 17, 2008 7:35 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Great posts, gentlemen.

let me just say that I did a little lunchtime reading, in this case the US Constitution (again). Do you kick back with 'War and Peace'?

[/QUOTE]Nope. Plato's "Republic".

[/QUOTE]Tell me when you get to the part about his philosophy on naked female athletes. Tv ratings would be through the roof!

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Mon Nov 17, 2008 7:51 am

the 2 best lines i have read/heard regarding all this: gross saying your 401k is now a 201k and joe kernan on squakbox regarding all the bailouts to help "us"- why don't they just mail each of "us" a check for a million bucks?

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Mon Nov 17, 2008 9:11 am

Id kill for the words "average draft position" to be in the next thread.

Pelosi

Asumijet · Post by **Asumijet** » Mon Nov 17, 2008 9:57 am

Some data about the Big-3's impact on the US Economy...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=72cHfOKoA1c&eurl

Have to say that I disagree with the premise of loan/throw $25B at the problem and all dome and gloom are avoided. The issues are far more complicated.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Nov 17, 2008 10:48 am

Originally posted by Asumijet:

Some data about the Big-3's impact on the US Economy...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=72cHfOKoA1c&eurl

Have to say that I disagree with the premise of loan/throw $25B at the problem and all dome and gloom are avoided. The issues are far more complicated. 25B won't do squat except delay the collapse another couple weeks or months. sorry, but automakers need to become more efficient, build better vehicles, and cut costs. THEY ARE DOING SOMETHING WRONG AS A BUSINESS IF THEY ARE CLOSE TO BEING BANKRUPT!

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Nov 17, 2008 12:11 pm

Who are the big 3 and what are their ADP's? Some damned strange results over at that creative sports draft. Johan in the first; Hamels in the 3rd; CC in the 4th.

I see Lincecum going in the early to mid 2nd, then CC (as a Yankee) in the mid to late second, followed quickly by Johan. After that maybe a break from SP's until the mid to late 3rd. Can't see Hamels going too much earlier than the fourth. I think Nando read about him in the tea leaves.

Raskol · Post by **Raskol** » Tue Nov 18, 2008 2:46 am

Nice Hijack Brian-

CC as a Bronx resident will get over valued.

Lincecum is the real deal but my question is "when will those 130 pitch outings catch up to him?" This year, next?

Johan is....Johan. No way I take any pitcher the first 2 1/2 rounds at the earliest.

Hamels is fun to watch but I am not biting until after the 6th.

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Tue Nov 18, 2008 3:46 am

Johan beginning of first. Lince and CC in end 2nd or third. Hamels will be gone long before you get to 6th Raskolnikov...I say 4th.

Lince worries me:

a) he is a smallish guy with violent motion

b) innings and pitch counts

c) I still think SF is a bottom offensive team. THus wins will be tougher for him then other SPs. If a SP can cover 4 categories, youre looking at a guy who, if healthy, can dominate only 3 categories and be left at the hands of Aaron Rowand for the 4th...look at what has happened to Cain. Lince will not be on the Schws this year.

Give me Haren in the fifth.

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Tue Nov 18, 2008 4:17 am

I meant Johan beginning of 2nd

Raskol · Post by **Raskol** » Tue Nov 18, 2008 5:19 am

Originally posted by Schwks:

Johan beginning of first. Lince and CC in end 2nd or third. Hamels will be gone long before you get to 6th Raskolnikov...I say 4th.

This is why none of these will be on my teams next year...unless they slip far enough. SP is so unreliable except for very rare instances of year to year durability.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Tue Nov 18, 2008 6:42 am

Schwks, With regards to your signature, in four tries I have not had more than two of my top four picks work out so I reckon it is not that easy, at least not for me.