RED ALERT: FX Dislocation_In_Process

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Mon Feb 16, 2009 2:54 pm

8:17 CT

I do not know what is going on here, and I don't think I want to.

Someone, apparently someone in Asia, wants dollars. A LOT of dollars. There is a forced-liquidation event underway that is massive, it is against all asset classes and it is spreading.

It originated at approximately 7:15 CT this evening and originated out of Asia somewhere. All of the primary currency crosses got hit at once - Euro, Pound, Yen - all weakened dramatically against the dollar and it is still going on. The Asian stock markets got walloped at the same time in coordinated waves of forced selling.

At the same time the US futures markets got nailed as well, down some six handles on the /ES in a near-vertical drop. While this sounds "not that big" to move these markets in a coordinated fashion like this is a trillion-dollar enterprise - this is not some small company that went bankrupt, or even a large company.

There is no news coverage at the present time identifying the source of this but it is not small and contrary to some reports it is not "automatic selling"; this is forced liquidation.

Folks, if this translates into Eastern Europe where there are severe instabilities already brewing literally everything in the financial world could come apart "all at once."

The worse news is that if this happens Bernanke will have killed us (in the US) by extending those swap lines all over the planet during the last six months. These will become utterly uncollectable and they are massive, in the many hundreds of billions of dollars.

To those who are reading this, I hope if you're in the markets you are prepared for extreme levels of violence. You must expect that the authorities will try to arrest the destruction if they are able, but you must also be prepared for the possibility that we have reached a "critical mass" point beyond which "duck and cover" is the only winning strategy.

Unfortunately.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

[ February 16, 2009, 08:54 PM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko II ]

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Mon Feb 16, 2009 3:00 pm

Have you been sending money to the Nigerians again?

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Mon Feb 16, 2009 3:07 pm

Originally posted by King of Queens:

Have you been sending money to the Nigerians again? Yes, Bernanke and Geitner say Hi!

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Mon Feb 16, 2009 7:34 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

8:17 CT

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/ Utter BS, as usual. The guy has a one-dimensional delusional mind.

I've been seeing Mr Denninger's videos posted here for months, here is my accumulated opinion of him:

Marketable delivery - confident, disgusted at all things that most people are disgusted at and sounds reasonably knowledgeable and intelligent (which I believe he is). But he is delusional - letting far-fetched theories (which he probably does believe) run rampant, and knows how to sound convincing. If I want to spread propaganda, I'd hire this guy in a second. He is the Rush Limbaugh of the disenfranchised.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:13 am

European stocks hit by Moody's latest bank warning

Tuesday February 17, 6:59 am ET

By Pan Pylas, AP Business Writer

LONDON (AP) -- European stock markets fell sharply Tuesday amid renewed concerns about the financial health of the banking system after a leading credit ratings agency warned about the impact from deteriorating economic conditions in Eastern Europe.

A widespread deterioration in the economic health of core markets in Eastern Europe is exerting negative rating pressure on subsidiaries' and eventually may also lead to a weakening of the parent bank's ratings assuming East European activities represent a significant part of total banking activities of the parent," Moody's said.

GoBabyGo · Post by **GoBabyGo** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 2:25 am

KJ Duke sounds like you are not a fan of people who are speaking reality and truth ala Dennigner, Celente, Chapman, SChiff, etc.

Well maybe you will like this guy that CNBS had on this morning. No other than Wayne Huizenga telling it the way it is. Does he sound nuts also? (He knows whats coming in sports, those contracts will BK some franchises imho, as less fans will attend, watch it from home, look at NASCAR) Things are not rosy as you say they are Duke. (I guess you have to be rosy because you can only purchase LONG securties) Time to batton down the hatches as the game is Capital preservation NOT return on capital. its return OF capital. The opportunties will come but not now imho. Look at that Stimulus Bill (A bill with all BIG GOVT SPENDING nothing stimuling about) Oh by the way see GOLD/SILVER rocking this morning (GOVT everywhere printing like mad) sure it could change because you never know what the PPT TEAM will bring (They hire MIT grads for a reason!!)

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1037142366&play=1

P.S. State of Kansas follows California's lead NO TAX RETURN CHECK FOR YOU. Unreal

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 4:35 am

Originally posted by GoBabyGo:

KJ Duke sounds like you are not a fan of people who are speaking reality and truth ala Dennigner, Celente, Chapman, SChiff, etc.

I like people that speak the truth, but you are being manipulated by youtube media just as much as those that believe everything the mainstream media tells them.

Originally posted by GoBabyGo:

Things are not rosy as you say they are Duke. (I guess you have to be rosy because you can only purchase LONG securties) You have some comprehension issues if you get "rosy" from anything I've said. And your second statement there (I guess you have to be ...) just shows stupidity, sorry. As I've previously explained, being biased is of no benefit to me, being right is. The stock market is not = to economy, they function on different cycles.

In fact, you take exactly the same ridiculous leaps of faiths with me that Denninger takes with everything.

Let me examine your thought process on kjduke to show you what I mean:

a) he doesn't think the market will collapse even though I read horrible news everyday.

b) all these videos sound intelligent, if he brushes them off he must be missing something.

c) he works in the market.

d) oh, that explains it, he only profits when markets go up, so of course he is blinded by his own hope/optimism.

And now here is where you are wrong:

a) the market does not equal the economy, market leads, economy lags

b) they sound intelligent because they are created to appeal to people like you

c) correct, but you don't really understand what I do or how I succeed

d) spend a few years studying the history of markets and the economy (watching videos and reading blogs is not studying), at which point you'll only be 18 years behind me, then tell me why you think I'm wrong (which is always possible) with some intelligence rather than with Denninger-style leap of faith logic.

[ February 17, 2009, 11:08 AM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

GoBabyGo · Post by **GoBabyGo** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 5:48 am

I am cringing the way I really want to respond but I will not go there. I will however say, if you have studied the markets for 18 years as you claim than the conclusion should be if you truly want to be honest is that the stock market imho is a huge ponzi scheme. Again they hire MIT grads for reason, don't you agree. And it is not based on so called fundamentals, because that does not exist anymore and has not the last 10 years or so.

And yes you have been a rosy picture guy I believe you claimed small caps were to lead the way out by mid year am I mistaken?

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 5:56 am

Originally posted by GoBabyGo:

I am cringing the way I really want to respond but I will not go there. I will however say, if you have studied the markets for 18 years as you claim than the conclusion should be if you truly want to be honest is that the stock market imho is a huge ponzi scheme. Again they hire MIT grads for reason, don't you agree. And it is not based on so called fundamentals, because that does not exist anymore and has not the last 10 years or so.

And yes you have been a rosy picture guy I believe you claimed small caps were to lead the way out by mid year am I mistaken? The market had many positive cycles during the the early 70s even as it was going nowhere - if you look back over those years would anyone who expected any of those cycles be labelled rosy in your book? You think the market just goes straight down when things are bad, then after they look good straight up?

Why, in your opinion the market a ponzi scheme?

Who hires MIT grads and why is this important? I graduated from DePaul, my partners are from USC and Miami of Ohio. Former colleagues that I recall came from UW-Madison, Santa Clara, Wharton, Harvard and Vandy. Does anyone from these schools also indicate to you a ponzi scheme - where would you like your money manager to have graduated from, high school?

The market is the same as it has always been, based on a combination of fundamentals, technicals, fund flows, confidence, fear and greed.

[ February 17, 2009, 12:05 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

GoBabyGo · Post by **GoBabyGo** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 6:13 am

You keep believing that, what I have seen the last 5 years is WHY the stock market was created. And for who's benefit.

Fundamentals? You are joking right P/E's in last few years thru the roof, Debt up the a-s, and revenues keep fallen but hey (with a little accountant magic we beat our estimate for the QTR that we the company gave the ANALysts) I mean you gotta love it.

Forgot Las Vegas, Stock Market is the biggest Casino currently going imho.

PRINTING USD will effect everything, you will see whether its thru deflation of inflation. Keep listening to the mainstream meida (5 companies ) that controls almost all the info in this country, yeah they will steer you the right way. imho

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 6:17 am

You didnt answer my question, you just toss out sound bites like your delusional videos.

Tell me why the market is a ponzi scheme and how it has changed in the last 5-10 years.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 6:17 am

Is GOLD a smart buy, even now for those late to the party?

Yes or no.

~Lance

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 6:21 am

Duke - I'm interested in your take on the following: Are banks really ponzi schemes? If every person/company/institution went to their banks and attempted to withdraw ALL of their money, would the banks have enough $ to pay?

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 6:24 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Is GOLD a smart buy, even now for those late to the party?

Yes or no.

~Lance It has been one of the most manipulated investments in the history of the world, so flip a coin. Unlike stocks, you are buying something that doesn't generate a return - it is a pure psychological speculation.

It's funny, the delusionals call the market a ponzi or a casino, but they love gold - and gold is actually what they hate (and what they believe stocks are).

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 6:27 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

Duke - I'm interested in your take on the following: Are banks really ponzi schemes? If every person/company/institution went to their banks and attempted to withdraw ALL of their money, would the banks have enough $ to pay? No they would not be able to pay, a typical bank is leveraged at 6x. That does not make them a ponzi scheme.

If you purchase a home using credit and the bank then demands immediate payment, does that make you a ponzi scheme?

See definition of ponzi. Leverage employed does not equal ponzi.

GoBabyGo · Post by **GoBabyGo** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 6:27 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

Duke - I'm interested in your take on the following: Are banks really ponzi schemes? If every person/company/institution went to their banks and attempted to withdraw ALL of their money, would the banks have enough $ to pay? The answer is a RESOUNDING NO! Why because of the fractional banking system created by (DRUMROLL PLEASE) the federal Reserve. If there is a so called BANK RUN no bank imho would have cash and hence = PONZI SCHEME. imho

The whole system is a house of cards. Do you really believe the GOVT will ever RE-PAY all this debt they owe? DOubt it. Rothchilds knew what they were doing imho.

I do not remember a FEDERAL RESERVE banking class in College. Their is not one because they do not want people to criticial think and ask WHY. paper money backed by ???? NOTHING?

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 6:28 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

Duke - I'm interested in your take on the following: Are banks really ponzi schemes? If every person/company/institution went to their banks and attempted to withdraw ALL of their money, would the banks have enough $ to pay? From what I've read, the entire system is set up to fail without massive debt.

Remove the massive debt, and the entire system come crumbling to the ground.

Kind of backwards from how we were taught to save and THEN purchase, to avoid paying the banks interest.

~Lance

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 6:30 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

Duke - I'm interested in your take on the following: Are banks really ponzi schemes? If every person/company/institution went to their banks and attempted to withdraw ALL of their money, would the banks have enough $ to pay? No they would not be able to pay, a typical bank is leveraged at 6x. That does not make them a ponzi scheme.

If you purchase a home using credit and the bank then demands immediate payment, does that make you a ponzi scheme?

See definition of ponzi. Leverage employed does not equal ponzi. [/QUOTE]if people went to madoff for their money, he wouldn't be able to pay. madoff just stole the money

if people went to banks, they wouldn't be able to pay. banks used our money for very risky loans. it's socially acceptable because people call it "leverage".

i see some disturbing similarities duke!

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 6:32 am

madeoff is broke.

banks are broke.

US is broke.

looks like we hit the trifecta!

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 6:34 am

401s down to 201s

201s down to 101s

101s down to 51s

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 6:34 am

Originally posted by GoBabyGo:

Fundamentals? You are joking right P/E's in last few years thru the roof, Debt up the a-s, and revenues keep fallen but hey (with a little accountant magic we beat our estimate for the QTR that we the company gave the ANALysts) I mean you gotta love it.

1) Do you understand how PEs work?

2) Do you know how to get to what would be a fair value PE based on the interest rate environment?

3) Do you get the concept of cylically-adjusted earnings power?

4) How much debt is too much?

5) Revenue has been falling for 5 years for whom?

Useless, senseless sound bites. You don't know enough to argue any of these points, and the people who are feeding you this stuff probably don't either.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 6:38 am

Originally posted by GoBabyGo:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

Duke - I'm interested in your take on the following: Are banks really ponzi schemes? If every person/company/institution went to their banks and attempted to withdraw ALL of their money, would the banks have enough $ to pay? The answer is a RESOUNDING NO! Why because of the fractional banking system created by (DRUMROLL PLEASE) the federal Reserve. If there is a so called BANK RUN no bank imho would have cash and hence = PONZI SCHEME. imho

The whole system is a house of cards. Do you really believe the GOVT will ever RE-PAY all this debt they owe? DOubt it. Rothchilds knew what they were doing imho.

I do not remember a FEDERAL RESERVE banking class in College. Their is not one because they do not want people to criticial think and ask WHY. paper money backed by ???? NOTHING? [/QUOTE]Dude, settle down and try to learn something for a change instead of typing one video sound bite after another. And you still havent answered my question.

GoBabyGo · Post by **GoBabyGo** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 6:40 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

Duke - I'm interested in your take on the following: Are banks really ponzi schemes? If every person/company/institution went to their banks and attempted to withdraw ALL of their money, would the banks have enough $ to pay? No they would not be able to pay, a typical bank is leveraged at 6x. That does not make them a ponzi scheme.

If you purchase a home using credit and the bank then demands immediate payment, does that make you a ponzi scheme?

See definition of ponzi. Leverage employed does not equal ponzi. [/QUOTE]DUKE,

That is a flawed argument. Homeowners wish they collected deposits.

Banks are in the business of collecting DEPOSITS (its not the Banks money) of which they lend out. now if we go and collect our money and they do not have it, yes its a PONZI SCHEME.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 6:40 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Is GOLD a smart buy, even now for those late to the party?

Yes or no.

~Lance It has been one of the most manipulated investments in the history of the world, so flip a coin. Unlike stocks, you are buying something that doesn't generate a return - it is a pure psychological speculation.

[/QUOTE]Duke - let's stick with facts on this one and see how they play out...

If someone invested $1,000 in gold 5 years ago and $1,000 in the S&P 500, what would their current balance look like now for each? How about 10 years ago?

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 6:44 am

You want to know what is REALLY wrong with our society?

No one takes the time to understand things. They think in bullet points, sound bites and hyperbole. See gobaby. How many people actually believe what he believes? Too many, unfortunately. He has virtually no real knowledge, but thinks he knows plenty from watching videos and reading blogs. If it appeals to your senses, it must be true. Throw together a bunch of facts then come up with a theory of why they're happening with no knowledge whatsoever. If the facts are true, then the theory must be true!