What Will Stock Market Be On Draft Day?

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Sat Feb 21, 2009 2:49 am

Originally posted by RoundTrippers:

march 21st-7777

JACKPOT!

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Sat Feb 21, 2009 4:11 am

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Mon Feb 23, 2009 4:57 am

No news is bad news, short-term, for the market. Geithner remains MIA and the market continues to rollover.

Put Volcker in the game, send Geithner to the bench, he's looking more hapless than Ricky Weeks with a bad wrist.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Mon Feb 23, 2009 7:58 am

Scary morning...hope it rebounds in the 2nd half of trading.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Mon Feb 23, 2009 8:02 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Scary morning...hope it rebounds in the 2nd half of trading. Unlikely so long as Treasury keeps their head in the sand.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Sun Mar 01, 2009 5:48 pm

Admitting my ignorance, I call upon the guidance of a respected insider...(That's you KJ!)

Two questions...

1) When you see the Asisn market on a late Sunday night down close to 4%...does that factor in much to our market?

2) Does the opening line consider after hours trading, and thus throw me off when I see this...

...and it looks like a gain for the day...but not when compared to that dotted red line.

~Lance

[ March 03, 2009, 11:19 AM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Mar 03, 2009 5:06 am

I had a friend tell me yesterday, " This is worse than a divorce! I've lost half my net worth and I still have my wife!"

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Mar 03, 2009 8:40 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Admitting my ignorance, I call upon the guidance of a respected insider...(That's you KJ!)

Two questions...

1) When you see the Asisn market on a late Sunday night down close to 4%...does that factor in much to our market?

~Lance More often than not, a big move in the Asain market is a reflection of the prior trading day in NY.

Stock charts generally reflect the close of regular trading, not extended hours.

[ March 03, 2009, 02:41 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Mar 03, 2009 8:48 am

Watched much of Geithner today, very disappointing. I don't think they're even in the ballpark for doing what needs to be done.

Geithner defending the Administration's absolutely ridiculous GDP forecast (-1% for 2009) shows the same old DC manipulation game continues (i.e., George Bush, fall of '08 "the economy remains strong").

Goldman just revised their GDP forecast to -7.1% for Q1. So I guess Treasury is expecting something on the order of 7%-10% GDP growth by Q4. :rolleyes:

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Tue Mar 03, 2009 9:00 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Watched much of Geithner today, very disappointing. I don't think they're even in the ballpark for doing what needs to be done.

Geithner defending the Administration's absolutely ridiculous GDP forecast (-1% for 2009) shows the same old DC manipulation game continues (i.e., George Bush, fall of '08 "the economy remains strong").

Goldman just revised their GDP forecast to -7.1% for Q1. So I guess Treasury is expecting something on the order of 7%-10% GDP growth by Q4. :rolleyes: thi is why denninger is so sour on the economy/market. he has "less trust" in government/fed/etc than you

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Mar 03, 2009 9:27 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Watched much of Geithner today, very disappointing. I don't think they're even in the ballpark for doing what needs to be done.

Geithner defending the Administration's absolutely ridiculous GDP forecast (-1% for 2009) shows the same old DC manipulation game continues (i.e., George Bush, fall of '08 "the economy remains strong").

Goldman just revised their GDP forecast to -7.1% for Q1. So I guess Treasury is expecting something on the order of 7%-10% GDP growth by Q4. :rolleyes: thi is why denninger is so sour on the economy/market. he has "less trust" in government/fed/etc than you

[/QUOTE]Denninger isn't forecasting anything, he is promoting an ideology. Are you part of his flock?

Let me take a guess at his track record on the economy/markets:

1980's - very bad

1990's - very, very bad

2000-01 - good

2002-2006 - very, very bad

2007 - average

2008-09 - good

How did I do?

[ March 03, 2009, 03:35 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

no-you-won't · Post by **no-you-won't** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 1:38 pm

March 21 - 7008

December 31 - 3591

Ryan

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu Mar 05, 2009 8:26 am

Hey Kevin!

Wouldn't purchasing Citigroup, Inc at $1 per share be a smart gambling "hedge" that the US economy will recover?

They were at $7 in January.

If they fail completely...the economy would be right behind it would seem.

Seems like a safe bet...either you turn a nice profit...or you dollar becomes worthless anyway.

~Lance

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu Mar 05, 2009 8:32 am

I'm going to post this here.

Pretty cool how the dow on top of this page keeps updating live!

$1.03 at time of post...watch it rise over the next days and weeks.

[ March 05, 2009, 02:35 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Mar 05, 2009 8:42 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Hey Kevin!

Wouldn't purchasing Citigroup, Inc at $1 per share be a smart gambling "hedge" that the US economy will recover?

They were at $7 in January.

If they fail completely...the economy would be right behind it would seem.

Seems like a safe bet...either you turn a nice profit...or you dollar becomes worthless anyway.

~Lance If I told you that last fall they had exposure to contract default swaps on the order of $10 trillion would you still think so?

Citi's market cap was close to $300 billion, now its $5 billion. If you were to speculate their CDS exposure now is $5 trillion, it then would take an extra 0.1% loss on that portfolio to erase another $5 billion in market value.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu Mar 05, 2009 8:50 am

F-ing Banks

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Mar 10, 2009 4:22 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Hey Kevin!

Wouldn't purchasing Citigroup, Inc at $1 per share be a smart gambling "hedge" that the US economy will recover?

They were at $7 in January.

If they fail completely...the economy would be right behind it would seem.

Seems like a safe bet...either you turn a nice profit...or you dollar becomes worthless anyway.

~Lance If I told you that last fall they had exposure to contract default swaps on the order of $10 trillion would you still think so?

Citi's market cap was close to $300 billion, now its $5 billion. If you were to speculate their CDS exposure now is $5 trillion, it then would take an extra 0.1% loss on that portfolio to erase another $5 billion in market value. [/QUOTE]Hey Kevin...

Let's just say I purchased 2000 shares of "C" at 1.03.

It's now at 1.33

Would selling 1000 shares locking in almost 30%, and wait for more movement to buy that 1000 shares back should it fall back a bit or even if it continues to go up be a conservative approach, or is that "day trading" and they'll kill me in taxes or penalties or whatever.

Just in general. (I'm still learning)

~Lance

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Mar 10, 2009 5:51 pm

Is it just recently...or common that you could draw a line following the US DOW, to the Asia Nikkei, to the Euro FSTE...on back to the US DOW.

It just seems we sure piggy back one another.

~Lance

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Mar 10, 2009 8:29 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Hey Kevin!

Wouldn't purchasing Citigroup, Inc at $1 per share be a smart gambling "hedge" that the US economy will recover?

They were at $7 in January.

If they fail completely...the economy would be right behind it would seem.

Seems like a safe bet...either you turn a nice profit...or you dollar becomes worthless anyway.

~Lance If I told you that last fall they had exposure to contract default swaps on the order of $10 trillion would you still think so?

Citi's market cap was close to $300 billion, now its $5 billion. If you were to speculate their CDS exposure now is $5 trillion, it then would take an extra 0.1% loss on that portfolio to erase another $5 billion in market value. [/QUOTE]Hey Kevin...

Let's just say I purchased 2000 shares of "C" at 1.03.

It's now at 1.33

Would selling 1000 shares locking in almost 30%, and wait for more movement to buy that 1000 shares back should it fall back a bit or even if it continues to go up be a conservative approach, or is that "day trading" and they'll kill me in taxes or penalties or whatever.

Just in general. (I'm still learning)

~Lance [/QUOTE]Lance, Citi is so leveraged and uncertain it's basically like buying a stock option.

Go to Vegas, put $1000 on black on you're up 100% with a good spin. Do it again and you're rolling big with easy money. But it could just as easily come up red tomorrow. My professional opinion is just that, it's a pure speculation. Could win big, could lose big, with instant gratification. Just not a game I would play with better risk/reward options on the table.

[ March 11, 2009, 02:39 AM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Mar 10, 2009 8:31 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Is it just recently...or common that you could draw a line following the US DOW, to the Asia Nikkei, to the Euro FSTE...on back to the US DOW.

It just seems we sure piggy back one another.

~Lance Not unusual to have a high degree of correlation across global markets, especially with macroeconomic events affecting the entire global economy in a similar manner.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Mar 17, 2009 8:33 am

Hey, who is going to win the Pete Rose autographed baseball?

Could we be at 7500 by Friday. Or better yet, could we be at 7777 by Friday of March Madness!!

KJ, what's the prediction for Friday afternoon?

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Mar 17, 2009 10:00 am

Greg, here were all the predictions. Could come down to the wire.

Rucrew2 has the lead right now, but I like my chances - if the recent improvement in confidence keeps rolling thru the end of the week I could be real close. If it overshoots RT or even Plymouth has a shot. Dabears could take it if we run out of steam, I think everyone else (especially the Fed conspiracy crowd) is done for.

JohnZ = 8315

Plymouth = 7831

RoundTrippers = 7777

KJ Duke = 7629

Rucrew2 = 7498

CURRENT PRICE = 7395.70

Dabears = 7135

No-you-won’t = 7008

Doughboys = 7005

Gekko = 6750

Scott Boras = 6,666.66

Sportsbettingman = 6420

Vander = 6012

Bama = 5850

GoBabyGo = 5400

Snord35 = 5375

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Mar 17, 2009 10:10 am

Yes...part of me saw the turnaround (after being right on pace for my prediction) and said "Damn...there goes a nice baseball"...but the other part of me said "Sweeeeeet...a rebound in the economy!"

But the third part of me thinks..."The rally/surge before the real drop" as many predicted.

I'll take the surge and run with it!

~Lance

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Mar 17, 2009 10:15 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Yes...part of me saw the turnaround (after being right on pace for my prediction) and said "Damn...there goes a nice baseball"...but the other part of me said "Sweeeeeet...a rebound in the economy!"

But the third part of me thinks..."The rally/surge before the real drop" as many predicted.

I'll take the surge and run with it!

~Lance Economy still is getting worse, but confidence may have bottomed. If so, market has seen its lows. Too soon to tell right now.

As more economic data and 1st qtr earnings (or should I say loss) reports come out in April and early May, investor confidence may be tested again.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Tue Mar 17, 2009 11:55 am

crew and kj remind me of the stat guys in this. 7500 would have entered my brain not 7498. which is probably why i am down in market and down in fantasy.