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All things equal. Who has the better bottom line in '09?



Any backers for the veteran? Or is there more support for the youngster?

give me young with upside and 2 equal leg lenghts!!!

Not even close as Kemp is a 2nd round pick and Vladdy is a 4th round pick.

Seems like it is always easier to go with the upside. Just wanted to see if anybody would make a case for the proven vet. You know what he'll do if healthy, and you can't really label him as injury prone - he's had less than 520 Ab's once in the past 10 years. Perhaps he may have been on the juice and the sb's aren't coming back, but he's a career .323 hitter.



Anybody out there confident enough in those 33 year old knees? Manny is almost 4 years older!!

I've got them neck-and-neck in the 3rd.



Vlad is not old. He's just been doing this for so damn long. He's a lock for 500+ ABs, 30HRs, and .300+. The days of dbl-digit steals are gone, but I'll still take low-risk Vlad and the re-energized Halos.



Sometimes paying for 'youth upside' leads to plain old overpaying.

Here's my man Vlad in the locker room doing his pre-game rituals...







Damn Voodoo Witch Doctor!



I'll take Vlad!



~Lance

Dang, Lance...that is just wrong!



You gotta lay off that mojo juice...it is making you see things!

I guess this is the everlasting, ongoing debate personified. DO you draft unproven talent or proven talent on downside?



Vlad could easily go 300 30 120, no question, but that is basically his ceiling. I think ANgels have become slightly worse since 08. Abreu is not the player that his roto numbers suggest and neither were Hunter in 08 or Matthews in 07. So I do not think th elineup helps Vlad.



Based upon that, Vlad could reproduce 08 or even 07, but there is also th chance that he hits a bit of an age wall and keeps the downward trend going. This seems more likely then a rebound to previous years,





Meanwhile, Kemp is trending upwards. He could take a step backwards, but by now, he has shown enough that the talent is for real. Since he is in the advancement period of his career, I think there is a greater chance of him taking a step forward in 09, then a step back. When Manny finally signs, Kemp is set in a very good lineup with Furcal, Loney, Martin, Ethier, Manny, O DOgg, Blake.



Vlad 310 29 115 5

Kemp 300 20 90 35



I'll take the five categories and youth.

vad bats 3rd. kemp will bat 7th. big diff.

I was leaning towards Kemp as his power and speed are as good as if not soon better than Vladdy, who has age and health issues.



However, if the Dodgers do sign Manny, Pierre is certainly screwed, but what will that do for Ethier and Kemp AB? Are we back to 2008 all over again with four OF splitting three positions?

Originally posted by headhunters:

vad bats 3rd. kemp will bat 7th. big diff. Looks like the deal with Manny is a done deal. It is worth noting that Kemp has had his struggles against RHP - and with Manny back it would seem that he will likely sit once a week against RHP to get Pierre in the lineup. Ethier might sit once a week also against elite LHP. Torre also will play the hot hand. I think you will see Pierre coming into a lot of games late as a defensive/PR role for Manny. That being said - I think it is more likely that Kemp settles into the #2 hole in the lineup than end up in the bottom third. We'll see. Even so - I think if you are considering Kemp or Vlad, Eddie is right and you are talking late 2ND rd territory, and I'm not even thinking about Vlad until the 4th rd.

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Dang, Lance...that is just wrong!



You gotta lay off that mojo juice...it is making you see things! I screwed myself here!



I had dreams with a big weird green snake in a tree above, and a skinny venoumous green snake in my garage that slithered past me out to the backyard where my kids were playing...pretty stressful dream. Damn daily influenced subconcious dreams!



Vlad still has the power and rbi advantage, and a fairly big avg. advantage (career .323 hitter )...and runs look close to a wash if they both play 150+ games. It all comes down to those SB's and how much you plan on needing them based on who you are targeting later I guess.



~Lance

The thing that hasn't been said is that the reality is that you can probably come out of your draft with both Kemp AND Vlad if you want by taking Kemp in the 2nd rd and Vlad in the 4th.

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

I was leaning towards Kemp as his power and speed are as good as if not soon better than Vladdy, who has age and health issues.



However, if the Dodgers do sign Manny, Pierre is certainly screwed, but what will that do for Ethier and Kemp AB? Are we back to 2008 all over again with four OF splitting three positions? A good observation. Manny signing is good for LA and Manny, not good for the other three. Pierre is hurt most, of course, and in this economy, probably impossible to trade.

Pierre will join other over paid players who will be disgruntled with lack of playing time, while being a victim of their own contracts.

Bobby Crosby, Lugo, Pierre, and Nick Johnson all feel they would get more playing time elsewhere.

I'll start feeling sorry for them when they offer to forego some salary for more playing time elsewhere.

One thing this off season has taught me is that no matter how many times players say, "I'd play for free" that what they really mean is "I'd play for a piddly million bucks....maybe"

Pedro, Pudge, Durham all are Kenny Lofton'ing it this year. Each could play for that piddly million right now or "free" for them.

my way of looking at kemp and vladdy...if you pass on kemp early, you'll be forced to take vladdy later.

Kemp looks about ready for a power spike.