Yanks and other thoughts

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Sun Dec 20, 2009 7:53 am

My understanding of Yanks recent situation:

They let Matsui walk at $6.5 mill for one

They sign Nick (Ive broken every bone in my body) Johnson at 5.5 mill with a mutual option next year.

Damon offered them 2 years at $22 mill

They turn down Damon without a counter citing budget.

Man I dont get this. Johnson has to be a pure DH since TEx is a def. ace and thumper at first. So you have a very slow, injury prone, OBP guy who clogs up a DH spot that they need to rotate their aging stars through.

THey had a better hitter, with a ton more power and proven clutch, who could conceivably spot start in OF, in Matsui...who only cost 1 mill more.

Then Boras/Damon come in at reasonable numbers and they dont bite. Damon has speed, OBP, plays an ok LF (benefit of doubt) and has already been a key cog in a World championship.

So for 17.5 mill for next year you have you LF and DH...both hitting studs. Now youve spent 5.5 on DH, still need a LF and youve already downgraded off of 2009.

Other things I dont get:

Why does Cinci pay Rolen for next 3 years? They have a excellent 3b prospect in their system. They certainly arent one player away, and his hitting seems painfully on the downtrend at 35.

Why does Oakl need Coco? They have 5-6 OFs already and Raj Davis seems to be a better version of Coco at this stage of their respective careers.

I understand Boston got fed up with Bay, but why Cameron at those numbers? Seems like a lot to pay for a guy who has never been part of winning and whose numbers every year make you say "really he did that?" because they never seem to help.

Why did Philly not just trade straight up with Tor and make a run this year with Doc and Cliff? CLiff was owed 10 mill this year and would have given Philly best starting 3 in baseball to go with a killer offense. In 2010 offseason with WS ring, you decide whether you can afford Cliff in 2011.

Other head scratchers:

Any move by KC

Pudge to Wash

Mets with Alex Cora at $2 mill

Phills for 3 years with Polanco at 6 mill per (Luis Castillo redux)

crazytown · Post by **crazytown** » Sun Dec 20, 2009 12:45 pm

You stated Damon and Boras were asking for reasonable numbers. Do you think Damon will get 11 mil somewhere else? We'll see how reasonable they are. Remembe Abreu last year. Big bargain for the Angels, maybe Damon is this years bargain.

If they sign Matsui who bats #2? They obviously don't want Granderson there.

In your opinion, will the Yanks make the playoffs this year? Will Vegas have them as the favorites to win the world series? Maybe Philly there, not sure.

I guess I am doing less head scratching than others. More of a head scratcher is my strategy in the slow draft.

Thanks

PW Express · Post by **PW Express** » Tue Dec 22, 2009 3:10 am

With the addition of Javy Vazquez im guessing they are a big time favorite right now.

crazytown · Post by **crazytown** » Tue Dec 22, 2009 12:01 pm

Not that the Yanks won't sign another OFer, but is it necessary or just solidifying them a real good chance to get back to the series.

They now have Hughes, Joba, Gaudin for 1 spot in the rotation.

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Tue Dec 22, 2009 12:13 pm

More head scratching and more amazement at the Yanks, but this time, in admiration:

I think that I understand that the Braves needed to dump payroll, while still attempting to upgrade their offense. But how does this help? Vazquez was a top 5-10 sp this year and even in his worst years is a sometimes dominant and always dependable guy who can range from a number 3 to a number 1 SP. Plus he is getting a reasonable $11.5 next year. ANd you get back a highly mediocre offensive talent in Melky along with a ML ready lefty specialist. I dont get it.

Pencil Yanks in for 110 wins...with or without Damon/Matsui.

In response to crazytown, what I would have done was to sign Matsui for a year at 6.5-7 mill. Then tried to get Damon at Cameron or slightly more numbers (8.5 per over two?) Remember they are still going to have to pay 6-7 mill for their left fielder.

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Tue Dec 22, 2009 12:13 pm

More head scratching and more amazement at the Yanks, but this time, in admiration:

I think that I understand that the Braves needed to dump payroll, while still attempting to upgrade their offense. But how does this help? Vazquez was a top 5-10 sp this year and even in his worst years is a sometimes dominant and always dependable guy who can range from a number 3 to a number 1 SP. Plus he is getting a reasonable $11.5 next year. ANd you get back a highly mediocre offensive talent in Melky along with a ML ready lefty specialist. I dont get it.

Pencil Yanks in for 110 wins...with or without Damon/Matsui.

In response to crazytown, what I would have done was to sign Matsui for a year at 6.5-7 mill. Then tried to get Damon at Cameron or slightly more numbers (8.5 per over two?) Remember they are still going to have to pay 6-7 mill for their left fielder.

ESPN8 THE OCHO · Post by **ESPN8 THE OCHO** » Tue Dec 22, 2009 12:22 pm

I agree with the Matsui/Damon idea. Cash totally mismanaged thatr situation. Matsui at a mil more than Johnson should have been done. He is a good player, is clutch, and works hard. Only way that isn't a mistake is if Mtsui's knees disinigrate during the season.

Signing Johnson kills Damon. If they now sign Damon he will bat second moving Johnson down in the order where his .400 obp wont help in driving in runs.

I thiought the Yanks should have landed Damon even at 2 years 22 mil and signed matsui. if he got too expensive there are many other dh options with run producing capability for che ie thome delgado guerrero.

Grabdy/Vazquez good

Johnson losing matsui not so good.

either way yanks are huge favorites. bullpen of joba marte robertson and mo should be nasty

crazytown · Post by **crazytown** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 4:25 am

If they sign Matsui and not Johnson or Damon, who bats 2nd?

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 5:09 am

Originally posted by crazytown.gov:

If they sign Matsui and not Johnson or Damon, who bats 2nd? The same guy who bats second when Johnson gets hurt.

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 12:15 pm

Amazingly when you look at the top rotations, after the powerhouses of the Yanks and Boston, whose rotations rival one anothers' if both healthy:

CC....Beckett

AJ....Lester

Pettite...Lackey

Vazquez...DiceK

Hughes/Joba...Bucholtz

The rest pale in comparison. Really the Phils have Doc and Hamels and mediocre. St Louis has Carp and Wain and not much else. Even previously rich ANgels have Weaver and then huge questions in Kaz, Santana etc

If pitching wins World Series, is there a scenario other then mass injuries wherein someone else can creep in?

In another post thread, someone wondered why the Orioles couldnt package a Pie and an Erbe or some 2nd tier SP prospect. You could probably put together the same or better package from any team: How about Angel Pagan and Niese? I mean there is not a team in baseball that couldnt use a 33 year old horse at the front or middle of hteir rotation?

How do the Yankees and Sox always get these things done?

I agree with Greg's analysis that baseball is going to be in trouble when the Yankees become a playoff lock year in year out.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 12:28 pm

Originally posted by Schwks:

How do the Yankees and Sox always get these things done?If you are a GM for a small or mid market team and you want to salary dump 11 million dollars, who would you call FIRST?

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 12:52 pm

11 mill is chump change for a guy of Vaszquez' skills...200 + innings, 200+ k's 14-16 wins. You can wallpaper your living room with contracts of guys making more and worth half...start with Ollie P and "what's eating" Gilbert Meche, Carlos SIlva and Im just getting warmed up. He is a guy a middle market team should be BUYING...I mean Seattle with C Lee, King and Vaz? Puts them right in the race. How about Cards with Wain, Carp, Penny and Vaz?

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 12:54 pm

You're missing my point. Who do you call FIRST?

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Thu Dec 24, 2009 6:37 am

shwks- i think you are one of the smarter people on these boards but when you are talking about ny- yanks or mets and boston- i think your judgement might get clouded. keep in mind that these are businesses. there are about 8 teams that have pretty big revenue streams because of the #'s of people in their "market" yanks, mets, boston. philly, la, la, chc chw maybe a few others. if you notice- 6 of those teams share a market. in each market one team has become somewhat dominant from a " brand" standpoint. in la- the angels owner even wanted to concede "la" to the dodgers. for years the phillies- with no competiton in baseball market- just did not spend for a winner- they must have felt the $ gained vs $ spent wasn't worth the risk. then utely, howard and hamels and others appeared and they smartly went out and paid for the xtra "wins' to get them over the top. couple of things to look at- a win is not a win because 5 wins to the teams that suck is not the same as 5 wins to the teams that are close. they also look at 2 other things- what is my potential revenue stream and also- creating a barrier to entry. the barrier to entry is huge in the al east- " the yanks and sox are gonna spend 200million- and they have 200 million in revenues- so why bother" is now what toronto, tb and the orioles are saying. in the national league the phillies have stepped up to the plate when most teams wouldn't and are spending the $ to be dominant. there are a few teams that you can see are doing fantastic jobs with recent gm hirings- tb, seattle abd a few teams like the cubs, kc that are just doing a lot of stupid things. kinda like a real business maket. btw- the yanks and boston have nice staffs. the white sox, tampa bay, phillies and a few others have pretty nice staffs also. i think if you look real close at pettitte burnett #'s- on a level field and level fielders- you will find they aren't all that great. my long 2 cents

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Thu Dec 24, 2009 8:27 am

In response to Headhunters, first thanks for the compliment of sorts.

This year has given me a massive begrudging respect for the trades engineered by the hated Yanks. They basically gave up a bunch of prospects who wouldve never even been heard of if they were in another organization (does anyone have any confidence that Kennedy, Austin Jackson or Dunn are going to be anything other then middlin?) along with a fifth tier OF (Melky) and turned them into a stud OF and a stud SP, with reasonable contracts.

That said, I think that their are small and mid market teams that gt "it" and I have the same utter respect for them. I marvel at the Marlins, who year after year are able to turn out solid teams, despite a miniscule budget. With zero margin for error, they rarely seem to blunder with their trades, signings or non-tenders.

Im a bit surprised at the Braves, who I usually group as a one of the smarter organizations (though I think that the Tex trade will haunt them for a decade). They stole an underpriced Vaz last year after Flowers had a showy Ariz Fall League.With Vaz, Hanson, Jurjens, Lowe and Hudson, you could argue they have best rotation in NL and a one big bat (Heywood?) and another decent one, maybe gets them the pennant.

All of that said, I agree with the essentials of your argument.

BEF · Post by **BEF** » Fri Dec 25, 2009 6:31 pm

Originally posted by crazytown.gov:

You stated Damon and Boras were asking for reasonable numbers. Do you think Damon will get 11 mil somewhere else? We'll see how reasonable they are. Remembe Abreu last year. Big bargain for the Angels, maybe Damon is this years bargain.

If they sign Matsui who bats #2? They obviously don't want Granderson there.

In your opinion, will the Yanks make the playoffs this year? Will Vegas have them as the favorites to win the world series? Maybe Philly there, not sure.

I guess I am doing less head scratching than others. More of a head scratcher is my strategy in the slow draft.

Thanks Agree on just about everything here. But it was widely reported that Boras told teams not to even talk to them if the number didn't start at 3 yrs/$39 mil. It wasn't until after the Johnson signing that all of the sudden they said "we would have taken 2 yrs/$20m". I think the Abreu comp is a good one; Boras screwed the pooch on this one and Damon will be lucky to end up with 2 yrs/$15m.

Why not re-sign Damon and Matsui? Because Cashman is smart enough to follow that old Branch Rickey axiom of "it's better to get rid of a player one year too early rather than one year too late". Neither one are worth a damn in the outfield, and like many teams now the value of defense is being looked at in a whole new way (thank you Rays, Rangers, Mariners).

If you've got a lineup of solid seven hitters and it comes down to needing a LFer and DH to fill it out, why pay the combo of Matsui/Damon over $16m, suffer on defense and prevent any flexibility at DH when you can pay $6m for the combo of Johnson and Gardner? I know Gardner isn't great, but if your #9 hitter can provide you a .260 BA, steal 30 bags and play good defense and your DH is a perfect #2 hitter to replace Damon's bat, and you've got 7 other studs in the lineup anyway, well I'd much rather go Johnson/Gardner and use that extra $10m to bring in another stud, maybe a Top 10 pitcher...oh yeah, a guy like Vazquez.

I really don't like the Yanks and like many others feel they simply buy out their mistakes, but in this case they're walking away from having to make that kind of buyout in advance. Good for them, they made a lot of very smart decisions this winter.

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Sat Dec 26, 2009 1:56 am

Great post. And I agree that Boras' effectiveness is on the wane...he is out of touch and I believe that we are at the stage where his clientele will start to abandon him if he does not re-think his strategies to conform with the current era. Here is my objection:

No way in the world, the New York Yankees allow their two hundred million dollar investment have Gardner in Left...just not happening, just like they werent letting Juan Miranda DH. With that premise in mind, the Yanks will have to spend 5-7 mill on a left fielder. With that in mind, they will have spent 11-12 mill on the two positions when all is said and done...and downgraded more then the difference on signing Matsui and Damon would have cost them.

PS I hate the Yanks too, but find it hard to look away

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sat Dec 26, 2009 4:12 am

I don't hate the Yanks, nor like 'em.

They have been the most interesting franchise in sports. They have an advantage in baseball that no other major sports team shares. The old adage, 'rooting for the Yankees is like rooting for IBM', rings true now more than ever. It has only been of late that the Yankees Management team began to 'think' like IBM.

They have squandered their huge advantage the past few years with bad deals and basically wasting the vast resources that gives them the edge on every other team.

Now, they are fine tuning an already great team instead of handing out huge contracts like leaflets or flyers, that simplicity has given them the advantage back.

The Yankees do not need to go out and sign Bay or Holliday or even Damon or DeRosa. There are plenty of outfielders out there who would suddenly look a lot better, both in real and fantasy, should the Yankees deal for them.

Carlos Lee and Brad Hawpe are both drains on team budgets. Same with Carlos Guillen and Ordonez. Adam Dunn is in his contract year and could be dealt for.

This is where the big, big advantage comes in. Teams like the Orioles, Twins, Mariners, etc are not looking at players like these, but if owners of these players are serious about moving them, the Yankees will get the call. And more importantly, in most cases, the right of first refusal Much like Javy Vazquez.

It's a double edged sword. The Yankees making shrewd moves and using their clout is entertaining to watch during the off season, but if the moves translate to domination of the sport, Major League baseball suffers and a change will finally have to be made upon the next labor talks.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Sat Dec 26, 2009 5:32 am

exactly. except thev "mlb suffer" part. at least in near term. no way around it- it is all about tv. ratings are highest when yanks are on. for now the "marketing " of sports is all about the east coast and california. I think that is long term foolish- but i think the direction sports is headed is to completely forget about the rest of the u.s. and go international. which- btw- is what both political parties have been doing for about 40 years.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sun Dec 27, 2009 10:00 am

Looking on the opposite side of the spectrum, we have the Florida Marlins.

The Marlins have to have set some kind of free agent signing record over the last four years.

They have not signed one free agent over the last four years for more than two million dollars. Amazing.