My Main Event Teams - Sophomore Season

[Glenneration X]

The threads I've enjoyed most this past week are those where players posted their teams with the thought process that went with their picks. I've also read some of the experts' analysis of their own NFBC teams in their various blogs. I found these posts & articles extremely entertaining & informative and has inspired me to do the same.



Although I have numerous teams with several contests, I've decided to limit this to my two NFBC Main Event teams since most who frequent this board have a Main Event team and can therefore relate.



As Wayne also noted in his thread, I can personally use this later in the season and more importantly in future seasons to see which of my thought processes and/or strategies works and what doesn't.



[ April 07, 2010, 08:31 AM: Message edited by: Glenneration X ]

[Glenneration X]

First a little history.....



Last year was my first in High Stakes fantasy sports, my first with the NFBC, and my first in the Main Event. For a rookie season, it was marginally successful. My Main Event team finished 3rd in my league and 46th in the overall, I also won two weekly overall top finisher prizes. Basically, I broke even for a learning experience....and it definitely was a learning experience.



To say the quality of competition in these leagues and the 15 team format is challenging is akin to saying Apollo 13 was a rough ride. As the Wall Street Journal stated so eloquently, "The NFBC is where the best of the best come to play." You'd better be prepared.



To give you an idea of the level of competition you face.... Though not the Main Event, my one 12-team Online Championship team last year included ARod, Fielder, Mauer, Kinsler, Holliday, Ichiro, Verlander, & Beckett. No, I didn't win my league....after reaching a September high of 2nd, I finished 5th. Of course it didn't help to have such accomplished owners like Shawn Childs, Todd Zola, Glenn Schroter, Chris Stephenson, Andrew Nolan, Will Robertson, & league champ Matt Sterk in my league, but it should give you an idea of how tough it is to win one of these leagues. You're facing off against the best. Anyone who has won an NFBC league in any of its formats deserves respect for the accomplishment.



Of course, I didn't know all this when I signed up. I was coming off a run of 3 championships, 3 second place finishes, and a third in my previous 8 local league seasons. I was the man! I signed up late on a whim (I believe I was the second to last signup for the Main) and prepped by catching up on Rotoworld, doing a few MDC and Sportsline mock drafts, checking up on a few rookies, and relying on my "knowledge" of the player pool from previous seasons. Needless to say, the draft was a wakeup call. By the 20th round, I was grasping...I couldn't believe the player pool was already that thin and I couldn't believe every player I wanted was being picked RIGHT BEFORE MY TURN! Though I still ended up with some valuable players late, the second half of the draft was my undoing, something I tried to fix the rest of the season, something I believe cost me a higher finish in both my league and the overall.



I left the draft with tremendous holes. The back end of my starting staff was a disaster and the WHIP & ERA damage they did in early April took the entire year to repair. I had holes at 3rd reliever, corner infield, middle infield, and second catcher that had me chasing those positions via FAAB deep into the summer and in regards to 3rd reliever, never got filled. When combined with the slow starts from just about everyone of my core early picks, I found myself around 380th out of 390 overall by late May.



Don't get me wrong, I did make some quality late draft picks that I am proud of. I picked up Justin Upton in the 12th round, Chris Carpenter in the 14th, Huston Street in the 16th, & Nyger Morgan in the reserves. Those picks along with some solid free agent grabs in Brett Anderson, Jorge DeLarosa, Neftali Feliz, Miguel Montero, Jay Bruce, Kyle Blanks, & Juan Uribe, along with the resurgence of my core players had me rise to within 2 points of my league lead and a high of 16th overall by the end of the summer months.



The run would not last. I still had limited depth and when injuries inevitably hit in late August & September, I sank to my eventual finishes.



I'm proud of my finish last year, especially considering where I was as late as the end of May. Still, I feel if I had done a better job preparing for the draft, my finish could have been so much greater.



One thing not lacking in my preparation for this year's Main Events is....preparation. I went into this year's drafts with game plans and strategies first formulated while battling in last year's competition. I hope to use what I learned during my freshman contest to help me to my goal of a league (and maybe even an overall ) championship this year. My core has to remain injury free, my upside players must produce, balance has to be achieved throughout the categories, I have to be right on the vast majority of my picks, and ALL the stars have to align for me to achieve this goal, but I'll tell you the one thing that won't prevent me from winning is not being ready.



[ April 04, 2010, 01:25 PM: Message edited by: Glenneration X ]

[PBR Street]

GlennX--Enjoyed reading your post. Are you planning on following up with an analysis of your draft?



Also, I note you mentioned towards the end that your core group of players must remain injury free. Ron Schandler recently discussed how he is going to avoid most players who have injury risk/history, no matter how far some of them fall. E.g., said he would pass on Pujols at #1 b/c of the back issue. What's your thoughts on that approach in the NFBC format where there is no trading?



This is my first year in NFBC. I'm limited to doing satellite leagues this year because I'm located overseas. Hope to do the main event when I am back in the US.



Good luck to your team this season.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I'm not Glenn, but I'd like to take a shot at your question concerning Shandler and the avoidance of injury.



With the drafting of his Main team, it looks like he has held true to those words.

I think it closes doors. The avoidance of injury is folly in so many ways. This years healthy, stable player may be next years injury risk.

In the first round, Pujols has had back problems, Hanley had shoulder problems in the past, Utley had hip problems...are we to go down the list until a player has had no injury past?

Even then, what is to stop that first player from starting his injury resume on the first day of baseball season.



Drafting to avoid injuries is drafting to avoid talent. The players that move the most on the baseball diamond are the players we desire the most. With this movement, these players are more susceptible to injury. The Hanley Ramirez of the world that can run fast, hit the ball hard, and play a difficult position. To pass up a talent like him in order to avoid injury is similar to marrying the girl next door instead of the love of your life because she was a safer bet. You may feel safe with the selection, but you know you'll be missing something. In this case, that something, will probably be a League Championship.



[ April 04, 2010, 01:31 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

[Glenneration X]

Originally posted by PBR Street:

GlennX--Enjoyed reading your post. Are you planning on following up with an analysis of your draft?



Also, I note you mentioned towards the end that your core group of players must remain injury free. Ron Schandler recently discussed how he is going to avoid most players who have injury risk/history, no matter how far some of them fall. E.g., said he would pass on Pujols at #1 b/c of the back issue. What's your thoughts on that approach in the NFBC format where there is no trading?



This is my first year in NFBC. I'm limited to doing satellite leagues this year because I'm located overseas. Hope to do the main event when I am back in the US.



Good luck to your team this season. Thank you PBR....



I was planning to list my teams and thoughts last night once I returned from a dinner party. Unfortunately the beverages served at dinner forced me to postpone...

I'm off to the in-laws for Easter dinner in a half-hour, but if my wife can keep me from enjoying the holidays a bit too much , I'll post my thoughts tonight.



I'm well aware of Ron Shandler's Mayberry method and avoidance to injury risk. Although I read Shandler and respect his recommendations, I personally am not risk averse. I drafted Webb on numerous teams, picked up Kinsler, Berkman, Sheets, Gordon, Roberts, etc. on various teams. I believe huge profits can be made if you choose the right players coming back from or recovering from injuries. However, you have to be right or you'll have a hole to fill.



A Brandon Webb for instance is a 3rd-4th round pitcher when healthy and was going in the 15th or later. If he comes back in May and produces a value somewhere in between, profit. One guy I avoided was Jose Reyes, his fall was not precipitous enough, therefore the potential reward (late 1st round, early 2nd round value?) was not worth the risk (3rd round pick).



Though I personally don't employ it, I do respect the risk avoidance method. However, I believe Shandler takes it to an extreme that limits your player pool & potential profit. Not taking Pujols with the 3rd pick is an example of taking it to an extreme I don't subscribe to (as you'll see in my Citifield draft).



Well off to dinner....Happy Easter everyone.



Glenn

[PBR Street]

Great, look forward to reading about your team. I agree with comments from Doughboy and you re Shandler's approach. Ultimately, I think you have to do your own analysis and come up with your own appropriate risk/reward balance and how any given pick fits in with the rest of your team/strategy. I'm concerned about injury in this format, especially in the early rounds. But, in the right case, getting a great bounce-back at good value can give you the edge.



Happy Easter as well.

[Glenneration X]

Opening Day in the books!



One quick prediction before I post my AC team....

The Mets win it all in 2010!!



What better day that Opening Day to say so?



Glenn



[ April 04, 2010, 10:55 PM: Message edited by: Glenneration X ]

[Glenneration X]

Main Event - AC League 1

Draft spot - 11



I set my KDS for both my Main Event teams with the very top of the draft first, followed by the back third, with the middle of the draft pulling up the rear. My thinking was the top 3-4 players were the cream of the crop that would represent a great start to my corp, but short of getting one of them, the next 15 or so players were of similar value. Therefore moving towards the back of the draft would allow me to aquire two corp players to help make up the gap between my first pick and one taken earlier. I was awarded the 11th spot.



I was excited about this draft as such accomplished players as Mark Srebro, Marty Bedell, John Hogan, Scott Fleming and others were in this league. It represented a great challenge.



My strategy going in was to work an inside out strategy, a scarcity strategy. I believe that this year first base, outfield, and pitching had significant value later in drafts, so I wanted to make sure that I secured my middle infield and third base relatively early. I wanted a top notch first baseman, but not one who would cost a first rounder (except Pujols). I wanted to wait a bit for my ace (round 4-6) and first outfielder (round 6-9) as I saw significant value in those rounds for those positions as well as later in the draft, and would wait until the teen rounds for saves & catching.

As stated earlier, in the first round I would pass on the first base four. I would also pass on Crawford and Ellsbury as there is significant cheap speed to be had later in drafts. My hopes at 11 was that I could grab Longoria or Tulo (with Wright as a backup plan) and follow up with Rollins or Kinsler.

For the balance of the draft, if I could pull off the Shawn Childs 75/75 strategy I would, but would not lock myself into specific players to achieve that goal.

Though I target players, I usually target a "type" of player based on value rather than a specific name. While someone like Mark Srebro is what I would call a target drafter (focuses on players he believes will break out ala Carlos Gonzales), if anything I'd probably consider myself a value drafter and I believe one of my strengths is the ability to shift gears and game plans in order to grab value when presented.



1- Matt Kemp - Longoria was grabbed the pick before mine, Tulo was still there. However, Kemp had dropped further in this draft than in any other draft I had seen to date. The opportunity to grab a potential 30/30/100/100/.300 player for my corp was just too great to pass up, even if the position was one I originally was willing to wait on.



2- Jimmy Rollins - A no-brainer pick considering my pre-draft strategy.



3- Felix Hernandez - Another change of strategy. If one of the 2nd tier 3rd basemen had fallen here, I probably would have went that direction. Of players still available for this pick I thought about Kendry Morales here, but was surprised to see King Felix & Greinke still on the board. I decided I couldn't pass on grabbing a true ace that had fallen almost a round based on my prior satellite drafts & pre-draft ADP. Tough call between Felix & Grienke, I have them ranked almost equally, but went with the King because I project more wins.



4- Ben Zobrist - Back on pre-draft strategy. This pick gave me a potential 75-75 from my first three offensive players, with only one of those picks being an OF. To have 75-75 accomplished, two scarce MI positions filled, and an ace after my 1st four picks left me feeling really strong at this point in the draft.



5- Aaron Hill - Crossroads pick. This was the infamous "pitching run" draft debated in the 700-page thread started by Mark Srebro. In the 20 picks between my 4th & 5th round choices, 14 pitchers were plucked off the board, many whose pre-draft ADP or value did not warrant it. Josh Johnson was still available at this pick. I looked long and hard at him, but I had him rated as 6th round value and far from a sure thing ace-type, something I would need in order to grab one this early. Aaron Hill had fallen because of the run and was a power hitting MI that would significantly strengthen my hitting corp and give me a huge edge at MI over my competitors. Do I chase pitchers at the back end of a run, or do I grab the value presented because of the run? I chose the latter. This choice would affect the rest of my draft as I was committing to continue strengthening the offensive edge for a few more rounds until the pitching values started to stabilize and looking for upside on pitching later. I also feel real lucky that I grabbed King Felix when I did.



6- Billy Butler - Derrick Lee went the pick before mine and the pool of 1B I'd feel comfortable going to battle with is starting to dwindle. I grab a player that should give me 20+ HR's with a .290+ BA. If some of those doubles turn to HR's....look out. At minimum, I gain some potential BA protection that allows me some flexibility later in the draft.



7- Lance Berkman - He's just dropped too far. When he comes back healthy, he'll give me an edge at CI. I now have 5 of my 6 infield positions filled.



8- Nate McLouth - One of the value OF's I see in the 6-9 rounds and the one I probably ended up with the most. I feel he is significantly undervalued and a pretty sure bet for 20-20 with BA upside.



9- Ian Stewart - Filled my last open infield position. Unlimited power at a scarce position and multi-positional capability. He does come with BA risk, but the upside is tremendous.



10- Max Scherzer - Thought about grabbing a catcher here, but with Napoli, Soto, & Doumit on the board, I was hopeful that one would make it back to me. When I decided to finally grab my second pitcher, Dempster was also considered and would have probably been the safer pick. The problem is I need to find #2 & 3 starters where others are drafting their 4th & 5th. I need upside plays and went with Scherzer due his huge upside & the additional strikeouts.



11- Ryan Doumit - Napoli & Soto went since my prior pick, so I grabbed the last catcher I had in this tier. Another scarce position filled with a quality player.



12- Kerry Wood - I needed a closer and they were growing scarce. Aardsma & Nunez had gone since my last pick and it was time to pull the trigger. I chose Wood over Gonzales due to injury potential

Funny story...I was planning on grabbing Chris Perez in the reserves as protection, but Mark Srebro grabbed him in the 18th round. After the draft, I asked Mark why he took Perez so early. He smiled and showed me a text he received a couple hours into the draft from a member of "Gekko Industries". I read the words that had me cursing my draft..."Indians announce that Kerry Wood will be out 6-8 weeks. Chris Perez has been announced as the new closer"....nice.



13- Jarr Jurrgens - It's time to really focus on pitching. Though I feel it will be tough for Jurrgens to repeat last year's stellar production, it's surprising to see him available this late in the draft, especially considering the early pitching runs. I gladly grab him as my #3.



14- Brad Lidge - Need another closer. He was hurt, his availability for the beginning of the season was in doubt, and he's coming off an awful year, but he is the closer for a team that should give him numerous save opportunities. My game plan becomes to try to grab one more closer if possible giving me three as protection.



15- Ben Sheets - I have either Sheets or Brandon Webb on almost every one of my teams. Upside pick with limited risk. Last year, I grabbed Ervin Santana & Chris Carpenter in the 13th & 14th rounds hopeful that at least one would return to his previous "ace" value. We all know what Carpenter did, even Santana provided some late season production. This pick is an attempt to recreate that success. For the price of a 15th rounder, I feel the upside is more than worth it.



16- Octavio Dotel - See pick 14. This pick took on even further significance once I learned the Wood news.



17- Homer Bailey - I have him on several teams. Again, an upside play. His great September run may have been fueled by an extremely lucky HR/FB rate as some stat-heads believe, or it may have represented the breakout we've been waiting for....I'm a believer.



18- Erik Bedard - Another pitcher I have on several teams. See pick 15.



19- Cameron Maybin - It's time to fill out my outfield. In other threads, I've noted that I believe there was great value in late rounds for potential power/speed post-hype outfielders like C. Young, D. Young, Rasmus, Millidge, Stubbs, Maybin, Laporta, Blanks, etc. Laporta, C.Young, & Millidge went this round. It's time to grab one...I may have waited too long, I need three.



20- Drew Stubbs - See above.



21- Alex Gordon - I did wait too long, there's no OF's I like left on the board. I switch to 3B. I figure if I can fill this position with some late quality, I can switch Ian Stewart to MI and Zobrist to the OF (why multi-position eligibility is so valuable).....problem solved. I've got Gordon on several teams. He should be back a couple weeks into the season and represents a potential breakout player on the cheap.



22- Brandon Wood - Again, looking to make the new "Zobrist to OF" strategy viable and again with an upside play.



23- Kelly Shoppach - Filled my last catcher spot with a player I believe is a step above the Buck/Hundley/Barajas power only end-gamers. At a minimum, he should contribute some HR's.



24- Desmond Jennings

25- Rick Vandenhurk

26- Luke Hochever

27- Jack Cust

28- Felipe Paulino

29- Nate Schierholz

30- Luke Gregerson



I like this team. It has significant power & steal potential and should produce in the counting stats, though with some BA risk.

The starting pitching is all about upside, but has many pitchers I am high on, even in the reserves.

Saves will be a major issue until Lidge & Wood return and only if they regain their closer positions.



Well it's opening day, we'll see.



Its real late, so I'll post my thoughts on my Citifield team later this week.



Glenn

[Glenneration X]

The start of the regular season along with the few hiccups seen this week with FAAB & live scoring may have pushed draft day from the forefront of most of our memories. Still, I'm writing this mostly for posterity's sake if (or when ) one of my Main Event teams is crowned Overall Champion, so here we go with my Citifield draft.....



Main Event - Citifield League 5

Draft spot - 3



My strategy going into this draft was similar to my AC draft in that I looked to draft my team inside out using a scarcity approach. I wanted to fill my infield positions early, though this time I was considering the possibility of grabbing a catcher early as well. I wanted to grab a second tier ace in the first five rounds, but no more than one other starter in the first ten. I planned on grabbing an outfielder in rounds 6-9 as again I loved the value there. I would wait until the double digit rounds for my closers and to fill out my pitching staff and outfielders.

The three pick gave me a great opportunity to pre-plan an early strategy. At three, you could have pretty much figured Albert & HanRam would be gone and you would have a choice between ARod or Braun. Though I love Braun, positional scarcity won out here, and I decided days prior to the draft to go with ARod. From there, the flow of the draft would determine which of many considerations I would grab at the 2/3 turn. I again would try to achieve 75/75 with my first three offensive players, but would not reach for specific players to achieve it.



1- Albert Pujols - I remember thinking how lucky the drafter in the 2-hole was when the 1st pick was announced as Hanley. Though I can understand the strategy for going with Hanley at one, I personally would not have passed on the hands down best bat in the draft. Pujols just gives you too much of an immediate, huge, & reliable edge in four categories while contributing to the 5th. When the second pick was announced as ARod, I needed a few seconds before announcing Pujols. Seth Trachtman, who was facilitating our draft, told me afterwards that he was wondering what took me so long. I just never expected to have the opportunity to draft him. I remember looking up & catching the eyes of the drafters in the 8-hole to see them smiling while giving me a look as if they just witnessed a crime. I'd have to now adjust my pre-draft strategy after only one pick, but a little refiguring was worth it for Mr. Pujols.



2- Tim Lincecum - Once I chose Pujols, I was thinking best remaining 3rd baseman at this spot, as pre-draft ADP often showed that a couple of the quality 2nd tier types (Zim, Youk, Reynolds, Pablo) would be available here. As the 2nd round started to progress, I started to realize no pitchers had been grabbed yet. When Halladay was finally picked at #23, I expected Lincecum to follow shortly after. There was still four picks to be made before my turn and I didn't think there was any way all four would pass on him. They did. As I made my pick, I looked up at the drafters who chose Halladay, who also were the drafters whose eyes I caught after the Pujols pick, and they gave me a knowing look, no longer smiling....like what just happened? After two rounds, I had arguably baseball's best hitter and arguably baseball's best pitcher.



3- Victor Martinez - I strongly considered Pablo Sandoval here. Big Panda was the last of the 2nd tier 3rd basemen I referenced earlier, was multi-positional, and would fill one of the scarce positions I was hoping to fill early. I chose Victor for three reasons....

1)I'm very high on Aramis Ramirez this year and believe if not for his injury history, he would be rated on par with the 3rd basemen taken in the 2nd & 3rd rounds. His ADP however showed that he could make it down to me in the 4th round, while there was no way either Victor Martinez or Brian McCann would.

2)Pablo Sandoval's stats while impressive are not overwhelming. His HR's, RBI's, & R's will be tempered by his home park & his home team and he'll contribute nothing in steals. Victor's projected stats are almost at the same level and Victor plays one of the few positions more scarce than Panda's.

3)...and most importantly....My first two picks gave me significant edges at both hitting & pitching. I wanted to strengthen the edge. While Panda would have kept me somewhat on par with the drafters who had chosen ARod, Longo, Wright, Youk, Zim, Reynolds, he was in my mind a significant step below the first 3 and at best at the same level as the rest. Victor on the other hand gave me another significant edge at another position....he is one of only 3 in his tier, the top tier, and a tier that saw a huge drop to the next one. I went with the edge.



4- Adam Wainwright - My Aramis Ramirez gamble should have worked. He fell all the way to the pick before me when chosen. I already had him queued up when I heard his name called out right next to me. I took a couple seconds to compose myself (don't you f**king hate when that happens!), and then looked at my board. I searched my spreadsheet, but all the offensive players I would typically consider here were gone. I really did not want to revisit pitching after grabbing one so early, but Wainwright was by far the best value on my board. He was the last available of the tier of pitching aces I had rated after the Lincecum-Halladay tier. I could have reached for an outfielder (there were plenty of quality OF's left) or a getting scarcer by the minute middle infielder, but I realized by going Wainwright I would be continuing my draft run of creating edges. A Lincecum/Wainwright top of the order would give me a huge advantage in pitching over the rest of my league. I had to make this pick.



5- Brian Roberts - The one pick in this draft that I still second guess. Going into this pick, my pre-draft strategy was a distint memory, I had no middle infielders, I had no speed.... but Andrew McCutcheon was still available. He had flown up the ADP charts as the draft season progressed & was now regularly going in the 4th round. I strongly considered him, but have more reservations on his 2010 value than most. He's only played 1/2 season, he plays on a horrible team, and his power potential this year is still in question. Brian Roberts on the other hand was dropping fast down the draft boards in recent weeks. His back injury spooked drafters. However, I heard good news about him that morning and he had returned to the spring training lineup the night before. He was being taken in the 3rd rounds early in the draft season, had his best HR season last year, is only two years removed from a 50 SB season, one year from 40, and has been a reliable source of MI batting avg, runs, & SB's for years. There was a possibility that Roberts would drop to me in the 6th, and no possibility that McCutcheon would. Ultimately my decision came down to the fact that it wouldn't surprise me at all if Roberts & McCutcheon have very similar stats at year's end and Roberts plays 2B while McCutcheon is an OF.



6- Derrick Lee - I debated Carlos Gonzales here. I'm one of the believers that Carlos Gonzales is due for a huge breakout this year. It wouldn't surprise me if he puts up 2nd round numbers. I've gone into every draft hoping to draft him. However, I've been fooled by his draft spot each time. In my early drafts, he was going in the 9th round. He's steadily moved up to his eventual 6th round ADP in the first weekend Mains. I thought about just taking him here & finally getting him on my team....but Derrick Lee was here too. Derrick Lee should not have been available at the end of the 6th round. A good bet for 30HR's and a .300 avg, he was great value. Also, with Pujols already rostered, Lee represented the opportunity to create a massive edge at CI. I wanted both Cargo & Lee. My decision was eventually based not on my team but the two teams next to me, both who would be drafting twice before I would get to pick again. I saw that neither had a first baseman (though team 2 could switch Reynolds to 1st) while both teams had drafted a pair of OF's in the first five rounds. I gambled that Cargo was the better bet to make it back to me.



7- Carlos Gonzales - Good gamble.



8- Howie Kendrick - Another middle infielder who should provide batting avg protection, and HR's & steals in the teens with upside. I thought Kendrick was great value here in a draft where MI's flew off the boards.



9- Brett Anderson - I was watching him for a round wondering when someone would pull the trigger on him. Noone did. Though I already had two starters in tow, the opportunity to have Anderson for my #3 starter this late was one I couldn't pass. I think he's better than a lot of the pitchers who've regularly gone a round or two earlier. At this point, I love my staff.



10- Chad Qualls - The closers in this tier are starting to go. Wagner went since my last pick & Soriano. I decide to pull the trigger on a closer I believe is getting lost in the shuffle amongst drafters and has significant upside and not as much downside as others might think.



11- Miguel Tejada - During the break, I determine I need a little more BA potential and some solid, reliable counting stats. Looking over the boards, I decide that if they fall I'd grab Tejada and Vlad with my first two picks after the break. I believe both of these players have dropped too far due to age. Their offenses, their ball parks, their positions in the lineups.....if they remain healthy, drafted as a pair, they will give me significant BA protection, solid production at both runs & RBI's, and 35-40 HR (and maybe a half-dozen steals to boot). At this point of the draft, grabbing them as a team would strengthen my ability to achieve my counting stats goals for this team. Even though recent drafts had Vlad being chosen earlier than Tejada, I decided to go with Tejada first because the flow of this draft had seen MI's fly early, while OF/DH types waited.



12- Vlad Guerrero - As the round progressed, I considered going Garrett Jones instead if still available.....a bit more upside and a dozen more steals, but almost a guaranteed lower BA. Jones gets picked by the drafter before me (again). My decision is easy.



13- Ryan Franklin - Many are down on his "skills". Yet, he's still the full time closer for a team that will give him numerous save opportunities and a manager that sticks with his closers (the Jason Motte experiment aside).



14- Vernon Wells - Power speed combination that's done it before. He's another year removed from his wrist injury. I see a floor of 18/15 with the potential for much more. I need to draft power speed potential in my OF's to fill out my category goals.



15- Brandon Webb - I went into the thinking behind this pick in great detail while analyzing my Ben Sheets pick for the AC Main. Big upside, only a 15th round risk.....seems worth it to me.



16- Colby Rasmus - Another player I see as a big breakout candidate this year. Rasmus was the 2009 version of the Jay Bruce of 2008 and the Jason Heyward of this year, yet he seems somewhat forgotten. With the OF timeshare a thing of the past, his batting spot in the order following Mr. Pujols, and a year under his belt, I wouldn't be surprised if he surpasses the production of both Bruce & Heyward this year.



17- Cameron Maybin - Another potential/power speed outfielder I love for a breakout this year. Finished the spring strong and a good spot in the lineup for him. Like Rasmus, a strong pedigree....I see real profit potential here.



18- Alex Gordon - I have him everywhere. Pedigree doesn't get any better, is he this year's Zimmerman? I think many wrote him off after his spring injury, but he should be back in only a couple weeks. At minimum, should contribute some mid-teen power and double digit steals at a really scarce position. Considering this is a draft where Glaus went in the 11th round & Wood went in the 17th, I was really happy to get Gordon here.



19- Matt Lindstrom - This last tier of closers went late. Rauch & Frasor went since my last pick. When Fernando Rodney was picked right before me, I gladly grabbed a recently named closer very late.



20- Aroldis Chapman - The late spring injury doomed his once pretty bright chances at grabbing Cincy's last rotation spot. I think it's only a matter of time before they bring him up and when they do....he'll perform. There's lightning in that arm. I think he's Strasburg 5 rounds later.



21- Coco Crisp - I feel strongly about how this team will perform in 9 out of 10 categories. My one concern at this point in the draft is steals as I had yet to draft a huge producer. Cheap speed went extremely early in this draft as Bourne was taken in the 6th and Pierre, Davis, Morgan, & Borbon were all gone before my 8th round pick. I grabbed a guy whose pretty much a lock for 25 if healthy and whose been on 40 steal paces in other seasons while part time or shorted by injury.



22- Brett Myers - Was it only two years ago that he went into the season considered the ace of the Phils? Upside pick with limited risk.



23- John Buck - Potential for 20 HR's....hopefully he doesn't kill my BA. I do have plenty of BA protection however and could always use the power.



24- Jaime Garcia

25- Brandon Inge

26- Gil Meche

27- Felipe Paulino

28- David Murphy

29- Andy LaRoche - (Thanks for the head's up guys, though Adam would have looked much nicer here )

30- Brandon Morrow



Though my pre-draft strategy was out the window before my seat was warm, I really like this team, even beyond the Pujols/Lincecum start. I believe I created numerous edges and have some real upside.



Good luck to everyone this year, in my leagues, and throughout the NFBC.



Glenn



[ April 07, 2010, 06:49 PM: Message edited by: Glenneration X ]

[Money]

Nice recap, thanks for sharing. Pujols/Lincecum from the 3 hole is insane.......

[headhunters]

round 29= a different laroche. geez- only in ny do albert and lincy got that late- what an easy plave to draft.

[Frozen Tundra]

Nice breakout Glenn, although I already explained to you passing on AP for Arod.

One minor correction though, your #29 pick is the lousy LaRoche. Adam certainly wouldn't have dropped to 29th.

[PBR Street]

Great posts on your two teams. You started out with some amazing 1-2 picks in both drafts. I can only dream of Kemp-Rollins.



I'm also with you on Brett Myers. Although I'm not with Brett and his 10 hits he has given up so far tonight. I have Myers in one of my leagues, so hope he does return to form this season.

[Glenneration X]

Thanks for the comments guys....it was a lot more work analyzing my draft and posting my thoughts than I thought it would be.



Then again, I am the only guy who took five days to get through it....maybe it's just me....



Glenn



[ April 07, 2010, 06:48 PM: Message edited by: Glenneration X ]

[CC's Desperados]

Damn...I thought the approach was interesting for the second team. I really think you were a couple of picks away from nailing this draft. You took the edge when it was presented to you.



I wish you avoided some risk and added some steadier pieces during the draft (Webb, Roberts, and Chapman).



With your front three pitchers, you had an edge. A couple of solid arm would have complimented your staff better. As good as Webb looks at 15, he has risk. A solid arm would have added to your edge. Chapman is a nice young arm, but a more proven veteran might have made more sense when you are ahead. If you feel your staff was short and you needed upside, he might make sense. The way Garcia pitched today, you might have found another arm. He would look so much better as a number 6 than number 4.



Good Luck

[Glenneration X]

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Damn...I thought the approach was interesting for the second team. I really think you were a couple of picks away from nailing this draft. You took the edge when it was presented to you.



I wish you avoided some risk and added some steadier pieces during the draft (Webb, Roberts, and Chapman).



With your front three pitchers, you had an edge. A couple of solid arm would have complimented your staff better. As good as Webb looks at 15, he has risk. A solid arm would have added to your edge. Chapman is a nice young arm, but a more proven veteran might have made more sense when you are ahead. If you feel your staff was short and you needed upside, he might make sense. The way Garcia pitched today, you might have found another arm. He would look so much better as a number 6 than number 4.



Good Luck Hey there Shawn...thanks for the review & comments.



Roberts is a pick I've second guessed over & over since the moment I made it. Still I feel my reasoning was sound, so I'm hoping the results prove me right. For now it looks like I may have dodged a bullet as well.



Regarding Webb, I find it interesting that Kent questioned the logic behind that pick also. The fact that two respected players feel I should have gone in another direction makes me question it as well.

I guess my thinking was that instead of just getting a solid starter (for instance Wolf was available), that I could create yet another edge if Webb comes back strong. With the edges I felt I had created to that point, I was swinging for the fences.

I've always been willing to embrace risk on the pitching end. Part of the reason is that if the risks fail, I am very comfortable looking for cheap value later in drafts or in FAAB when it comes to pitching. Over the years, I've been pretty successful finding these pitchers a week or two prior to them going full price.

Last year for instance, my top 3 starters were drafted in the top half of my draft (Beckett, Carpenter, & Lee), but if I hadn't found Brett Anderson & Jorge DeLarosa on the cheap via waiver wire, my move up the standings would have been very short lived.

Right now I have a couple of reserve starters on this team I'm high on in Jaime Garcia & Felipe Paulino. If I'm right, they'll fill the gaps. If I'm wrong, I'm confident I'll find replacements on the wire. If I'm wrong altogether, then I'll have wasted a pretty good opportunity.



Good luck this year Shawn....more in the leagues we're not in together than the ones we share.



Glenn

[Glenneration X]

A quick update here....



I bought Freddy Garcia through FAAB in just about every league I could last night.



More than the scarcity approach, more than drafting value, my #1 strategy for this year is....

Always listen to those smarter than you are.



Glenn