The Perfect Draft

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EliGrimmett
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The Perfect Draft

Post by EliGrimmett » Mon Apr 05, 2010 11:32 pm

Every year I participate in several NFBC Satellites and every year I feel that the last team I draft before opening day ends up looking the best. Probably because I grow more familiar with how I REALLY want my team to look as April grows near.



Strategy: Simple - don't reach for anyone and don't punt any categories. Try to achieve balance and mitigate risk within reason. Try to get two closers, one good, one viable in rounds 8 through 12. Grab 3 to 4 SP's to anchor my staff, two in the first 7 rounds and two after my first closer. Don't punt catcher! Other than that, let the draft come to me and grab "value" when it falls into my lap.



I think I accomplished most of this, but you be the judge.



Pick 1

Albert Pujols. I guess it was between Hanley and him. I never really considered Hanley though.



2/3

Predraft I was actually considering drafting VMart and McCann here if they were both on the board. It would give me a huge edge at 3 positions within my first 3 picks, but leave me woefully short in steals. When Martinez was taken in the mid-second I still considered McCann, but with Reyes already playing (and homering) in actual games I was secretly hoping he was there at pick 30. He was and I took him, but to my surprise someone else was there that I had never considered - Mark Reynolds. Easy choice for me as he's nearly the perfect player to pair with Albert Pujols.



With a healthy Reyes for over 500 AB's I think with these first 3 picks I will have gotten pretty close to the 75/75 start though I wasn't really too concerned with this going into the draft - it just sort of happened.



4/5

Here I wanted a staff anchor and thought Johan might make it this far. He went at pick 52, so I chose to grab Javier Vazquez. For me, at this pick, it was between him and Beckett, but I like Vazquez a bit more. Some folks don't care for him, but he's a very consistent high K pitcher and, knock on wood, injury resistant though *ERA results may vary*.



With my other pick at the 60/61 turn I wanted another power/speed bat and was hoping Granderson or Zobrist would fall this far (though not expecting it). Was also looking possibly for Aaron Hill. I know - wishful thinking on all accounts. I almost draft Hunter Pence several rounds early right here, but my Dad caught another player on the board far after he should have been drafted - Jason Bay! Easy choice but now I have to consider future draft picks fairly carefully as my BA is at risk with Reynolds and Bay.



6/7

At this pick I was hoping to grab Nolasco and another good bat though in this particular draft I was trying to be careful as to not pigeonhole myself into selecting my pre draft targets, but rather just go with the flow. Nolasco is there so I do select him, but the other pick here was a big surprise to me. I select Jonathan Papelbon. He's a top 3 closer in my book and usually is drafted long before this pick. This will hurt my bats but I felt I couldn't pass up great value with a top closer (especially since I have no top closers in any of my other leagues (except Nathan)).



8/9

I was thinking this would be the pick that I take one of the upside young guys everyone is so high on such as Carlos Gonzalez. He disappears and so does Heyward. I decide to grab Jay Bruce though I realize this jeopardizes my BA in a huge way. I figure that if I can still grab two decent catchers I'll cover the BA drain that most other teams will see from having to grab catcher combos like Olivo/Barajas, etc.



For my other pick I take Brian Wilson. Partly because I like him to keep his job and partly because most of the closers were surprisingly still on the board. I figured with the 28 pick gap a large chunk of the closers would be gone before my tenth pick. Also, if I was correct in a lot of closers being picked that would mean that a lot of bats didn't get picked so they'd still be there at 10.



10/11

I grab my 3rd stud SP (in my mind, results may vary) in Jered Weaver - a guy I still think can be better than he was last year, though I'd probably be fine if he put up the same stats.



There were a lot of other "breakout" SP's at this pick, but I figured I'd draft the guy I liked the most here rather than draft the guys everyone else is high on. That way, if I lose, at least I did it with guys I wanted.



My other pick I may have jumped a couple rounds, but didn't want to get shut out on any single position so I grab Rickie Weeks here *Danger Will Robinson, BA is sicking quickly*



12/13

As the draft was unfolding here I was thinking I needed to grab both catchers here, something I hated doing but felt I needed to to regain some of the BA I had been losing. Doumit and Piersynski, two of my targets were taken right before and I prayed the next couple drafters didn't take the only two legit catchers left. I grab Bengie and Yadier.



14/15

I took one of these guys against my Dad's judgment and so I took one guy for him as well.



Ted Lilly was my guy. Great pitcher and could be a great number 4 for my team if he's healthy. And this satisfies my 4 stud SP goal.



Colby Rasmus was my Dad's guy. He stongly urged me to take him, though I had concerns about his BA potential I gave in. My Dad liked what he saw in the spring from Rasmus so I trusted his eye over my projections.



And besides that I still needed 3 OF's



16/17

Here I fill two more OF spots with plus BA in Delmon Young and Juan Rivera. Delmon I think performs better than he's ever done this year, though that isn't saying much since he's never done much and Rivera I feel should put up similar numbers. I feel these types of picks here are far better than having to draft catchers like Baker, etc. in these rounds so I semi-planned the draft to work this way.



18/19

Here I bring my BA back up some more with the only legit .300 hitter left on the board in Magglio Ordonez. I also grab Marco Scutaro which I actually think is a pretty good option this late as a MI.



I had a conversation with Gekko about him this year after I had selected him in the 14th round of an early draft and Gekko hated the pick! He suggested I take someone like Sizemore, etc several rounds later. Well, the upside MI's were mostly gone by this round in this draft, but I passed on Scutaro for several rounds thanks to Mr. Gekko. I also grabbed him in the 20th round of another draft. Gekko saved me 6 rounds! He may be brash sometimes, but he does seem to know baseball.



20/21

Interesting pick here because I knew Alex Gordon would start on the DL and I still needed a CI. I was hoping Kouz would make it but that didn't happen. I figured I'd grab Gordon here and then grab Huff or Rolen later as fill-ins (or full-timers if Gordon sucks when he comes back).



I also grab Barmes so I have a complete middle infield while Reyes is out and the option to rotate him into the lineup when he's in Colorado.



22/23

Aubrey Huff and Colby Lewis. I like what Lewis brings to the table this late in the draft. Hopefully he can replicate his foreign numbers here. If not, a 23rd rounder is an easy cut.



24/25

Westbrook (I had him in the lineup - ugh!) and Dallas Braden. Not great starters and maybe not even great upside (if any), but guys I don't mind playing match ups with.



26/27

Marquis/Lohse - see above.



28/29

Here I grab Jose Guillen for a little insurance against my higher risk OF. I also grab Gorzelanny! Why you ask? Well, because I saw that Childs drafted him of course. No, really, that's the only reason. ;)



30

Alfredo Aceves.





I'd like to hear thoughts on this team as I do think it is my best team this year in all my leagues and I was very happy with it after the draft.



I have some conservative projections of about 275/150 with a surprisingly decent BA of about .280



C Molina

C Molina



CI Pujols

CI Reynolds

CI Huff, Gordon



MI Reyes

MI Weeks

MI Scutaro, Barmes



OF Bay

OF Bruce

OF D Young

OF Rivera

OF Rasmus



UT Ordonez, J Guillen



CL Papelbon

CL Wilson



SP Vazquez

SP Nolasco

SP Weaver

SP Lilly

SP Marquis

SP Braden

SP Lohse

SP Lewis

SP Westbrook



RP Aceves



[ April 06, 2010, 05:38 AM: Message edited by: EliGrimmett ]
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Bobby J
Posts: 542
Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 6:00 pm

The Perfect Draft

Post by Bobby J » Tue Apr 06, 2010 3:37 am

Eli, I felt the same way, I felt that my Friday live double play in Vegas went about as smooth as any draft, I never had to reach for anyone, they kind of fell in my lap. Then I got back home to draft an online for the Double Play and wow, like night and day, went in a total different direction and once again, things flowed smoothly and never reached for anyone and in my opinion hit my target numbers almost to a tee. Again they are just targets and with some switching back and forth with a base stealer and a home run hitter when needed, I hit the numbers of 280+/1200/285/1200/185, thought pitching was extremely high also, even with 3 closers drafted. Only time will tell. I like your batting and I think your numbers are right on, only speculation is SB, that all depends on Reyes. Pitching has a lot of soft tossers on the back end, but that is what free agency is for. Good Luck this year
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