Atlantic City League 1
Draft Position - 1
In my opinion the #1 draft spot held a significant advantage over any other slot this year, even more than usual. In reviewing dozens of draft boards the past two weeks, every Pujols team looks great after the first half dozen or so picks, no matter which direction was followed in rounds 2-6.
Getting to start with Pujols in this draft, I knew the 2/3 turn would be the key to my success as it would set up what I could do with the rest of my draft. When reviewing which direction I would go with Pujols, many options were considered. Though I felt the best case scenerio would be to pair Pujols with at least one premium MI, I figured them all to be gone by the turn outside of maybe Kinsler. I decided I didn't want to go that way due to his brittle nature combined with the fact that you didn't know whether this would be the year he gave you power or speed or average. If he ever combines all three in one season, look out. I just didn't feel comfortable that this would be the year. My dream scenerio had Jose Reyes falling to that spot as I felt a power speed 1-2 of Pujols & Reyes would give me real flexibility during the rest of my draft. I also see Reyes bouncing back towards his former levels, while maybe not all the way, close enough to be a real impact in combination with Pujols. However, he's been regularly going in the early 2nd and I just didn't see it happening. Outfielders seemed to provide many quality choices at the turn, but I also felt OF was a position that offered pockets of value much later in the draft and I preferred to wait. By the time all my options were considered, it seemed that the direction I was most comfortable with that would also provide some flexibility in the draft going forward and seemed a realistic likelihood of being available was to grab one of the big three catchers and either Felix or Lincy at the turn giving me a top pitching option as well as a scarce position filled with a top player. I was comfortable with that early round draft plan and was prepared to implement it during the draft.
For the balance of my draft on offense, I planned on grabbing as many power/average options early and not worry about speed until it became cheaper later in the draft. I would neglect Judy's until at least the early teen rounds. I would focus on scarce positions early and wait on filling most of my OF until the teen rounds where I expected to find pockets of value. In regards to pitching, I wanted a pair of aces, but would then wait on pitching after that again until the teen rounds where many pitchers with upside would still be available. I planned to ignore closers until the double digit rounds.
I had my draft plan ready and it would last exactly one round.
1- Albert Pujols - Duh.
2/3- Dustin Pedroia, Jose Reyes
-I planned on taking a catcher and either Lincy or Felix here. However, I was completely surprised to see both Pedroia and Reyes still on the board. Honestly, I didn't expect to see either. I nixed my original plan and grabbed both premier MI's. I now had 75/75 covered with my 1st 3 picks and two scarce positions filled. For what I typically hope to accomplish, this draft couldn't have started out better.
4/5 - Alex Rios, Josh Johnson
-After my 1st 3 picks, I felt I had an real edge on offense. As I waited for the draft to return to my end of the board, I planned on shifting gears and possibly grabbing a pair of top pitchers here to see if I could obtain an edge at both sides of the game. Josh Johnson & Tommy Hanson were both available here and would have been my choices if Rios hadn't dropped. I was surprised to see him still available as he was typically being grabbed in the 3rd round of early drafts. With 75/75 already achieved with my 1st 3 picks, I just couldn't pass on strengthening a strength with a player who could easily provide 25/35 production and huge counting stats in that offense. I was happy to shift gears again.
-I chose Johnson over Hanson to be my ace because in my mind Johnson's done it before while Hanson's still somewhat speculative. I haven't forgotten how Johnson helped carry the staff of my Super team last year and was in contention for the Cy Young prior to being shut down the last month. Now healthy, I think he has top 5 pitcher potential with those skills and that park.
6/7- Matt Cain, Geovany Soto
-Though I've never been in love with Cain, he does fit the bill as the 2nd top starter I wanted. I think his upside is limited, however year after year he finishes with great stats. I think he's probably just real good and as reliable as they come.
-The other position I hoped to fill at this turn was 3rd base. From everything I saw prior to this draft, the 7th round offered a pocket of solid 3rd base options in Sandoval, ARam, Alvarez, & McGahee. All the drafts I took part in or reviewed had these players being drafted this round. However, none made it back to me at the end of the 6th. They all got jumped a round. I saw this in every draft I reviewed from that weekend. I guess everyone got the memo except me.
Disappointed, I shifted to another scarce position, catcher. I love Soto this year. I think he's in his own tier, following the top 5 options, but having done it before, above the Weiters/Montero tier that would follow. I thought he might make it back to me at the next turn, but having lost out on the 3rdbasemen I had wanted, I just decided to grab a catcher I wanted right here.
8/9- Aaron Hill/Michael Young
-I targeted Aaron Hill in the 8th round of many of my drafts. Coming off a bad year, I think he represents a significant buying opportunity. He's a lifetime .270 hitter. If he regresses back up towards that number, his kind of power from the MI slot will give me another edge. I see him as Uggla light, 5 rounds later.
-Michael Young was a crossroads pick. I was back to thinking about filling my 3rd base slot and had a choice of two opposite sides of the spectrum. Obviously Michael Young was there and I felt he slipped a bit and now represented a value. However, Mark Reynolds was also available. I struggled on whether to go with the solid safe choice or go with the a guy who could singlehandedly push me over the top or destroy everything I've built to that point. If Reynolds regresses back up to a .250 average, his 40 homer 15 steal potential would make my offense incredible. However, if he Mendoza's it again, all the BA protection I obtained with the Pujols/Pedroia start would go up in smoke. I really wanted to pull the trigger on Reynolds, but went with the safe and solid choice in Young instead. The deciding factor was looking ahead to the rest of my draft and seeing players that I felt I could add late who despite some BA drag would still be an asset in counting stats if I still have BA protection available. I still question whether it was the right call.
10/11 - Wandy Rodriguez, Andrew Bailey
-It was time for another starter. The next tier of starters were beginning to go off the board and I grabbed one that I think has near ace upside. I had Wandy on a couple teams last year and his first half helped kill those teams. Of course his 2nd half helped bring those same teams back from the dead. I drafted him as a #2 last year, I like him much better as a #3.
-I had to grab a closer here. Closers were flying off the boards here and we were well into the 3rd tier options. I just missed out on Thornton, who I would have felt much more comfortable with. I could have grabbed a Cordero, Franklin or Kimbrel here and maybe should have. However, the news on Bailey was as positive as could have been hoped and if he returns healthy,his skills and role far exceed those of the other options available. I took the risk. I figured each of the other options had risk as well, without the upside Bailey offered. Probably the wrong call.
12/13- Drew Storen, Nick Swisher
-Storen was the last of the full time closers available outside of Rodney.
-Nick Swisher is one of those picks that just seem to fall in your lap. I'm not sure why he slipped so far. He's got real power, plays in a hitter's park in the middle of a great lineup, will still get full time AB's, and showed BA improvement last year. Most importantly, he fit two needs for me just when I was looking for it, a power infusion and another outfielder. One of those perfect players available at just the perfect time.
14/15- Jhoulys Chacin, Grady Sizemore
-Chacin's part of a tier of starters typically available in the early teens that I just love this year. Young, upside guys with some experience with the big club that can make your team if they approach their potential. At a minimum, he should help me with K's as a 4th starter, something I could use at this point. This is a little later than I expected him to go, which made this pick even sweeter.
-I have no problem embracing injury risk. Sometimes like my 1st year with the NFBC when I grabbed Chris Carpenter & Ervin Santana, it works out great. Other times like last year, when I grabbed Brian Roberts, Brandon Webb, & Ben Sheets, not so much. This year, it seemed OF is where I gambled on these types of players. I have either Sizemore or Beltran or both on almost every one of my teams. For this draft, I had just heard that morning that Sizemore had finally gone through run & slide drills and came out of it feeling great and would be playing in games shortly. If he comes back and even approaches what he used to be able to do, it's a huge value pick. If not, it won't be. Still, where's his floor if he plays? Is it below the 15 round? I think the risk is seriously minimized by taking him here.
16/17- Carlos Ruiz, Chase Headley
- Ianetta had gone a couple rounds earlier and there wasn't too much left at the catcher position. I considered Martin, but again went with what I felt was a solid, safe choice. Ruiz shouldn't be a BA drag at 2nd catcher, a benefit in itself, but will have near full-time AB's in a good lineup playing in a bandbox and has mid-teen home run upside. I probably jumped him a bit, but if someone else grabs him I probably wait until the last couple rounds for a catcher and those guys are the ones that could cause damage.
- Headley was not in the plans at all going in. However, the way this team has come together, I felt he was a perfect corner. I felt very comfortable at this point in power and average, but shy in speed. He offers some pop potential, but also offers SB's from a corner position. I like the fit more than the player.
18/19- Peter Bourjos, Michael Pineda
- Upside, upside, upside. Bourjos will at minimum help with the speed I was looking for, but also offers potential power upside. This is one of those guys I was saving that BA protection for. Pineda's been lights out all spring and is a lock for a rotation spot. He's a top prospect pitching in the AL's best pitcher's park with a great defense behind him. Upside, upside, upside. I have these two guys everywhere. They're two keys to my season in several leagues.
20/21- Jake McGee, Brandon Belt
- I wanted a 3rd closer and McGee at least has part of the job. I think he has all of it by mid-season, worth the gamble here.
- News that the Giants were considering switching Aubrey Huff to the OF so that Belt could open the season at 1B with the big club broke the morning of the draft. I was planning on taking him all draft long. At this point, I couldn't wait any longer.
22/23- Alexi Ogando, Josh Willingham
-Ogando was a role of the dice on the Feliz situation that came up craps. Maybe he gets the 5th starter job and makes it a pick that at least isn't wasted.
-I needed a 5th outfielder and Willingham's a pretty safe unexciting option that does offer a bit of pop that I wanted to supplement at this point.
24/25- Cliff Pennington, Mark Trumbo
-Pennington will be a backup MI for me who can provide some cheap speed if needed.
-I figured Trumbo to be a pretty decent compliment to Belt. If Belt doesn't break with the club, Trumbo can play his role on my team until he does. By the time Kendry is healthy & Trumbo's out of a job, Belt should be back up with the big squad. My yin and yang.
26/27- Aaron Harang, Garrett Jones
-I have Harang everywhere. Former stud with flyball problems that moves from bandbox park to the toughest HR park in the majors. Worth a shot.
-Jones has some pop, can steal a base or two, and backs up both 1B and OF. Nothing special but serves a purpose.
28/29/30 -Cory Luebke, Mark Rzepczynski, Brandon McCarthy
-Three reserve round pitchers, all with interesting potential, all fighting for the 5th starter spots when I drafted them. 2 out of 3 lost their battles, ahhh well....that's what FAAB is for.
All in all I like the way this team came together for me. I feel I got lucky in a couple spots when I needed to, so it's got me feeling OK about the team as a whole. Of course, there's a lot of risk here and it could all blow up on me, but I knew that going in so I'm willing to live with it no matter what happens.