Most UNDER/OVER-VALUED Player Predictions...

JAR · Post by **JAR** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 9:19 am

Before the season begins.. I'd like to hear who everyone thinks the most UNDER and OVER-VALUED player(s) will be this year. Pitcher/Hitter.. AL/NL (or both)

Here's mine...

Undervalued-Pitcher

NL: Derek Lowe

AL: Jeremy Bonderman

Undervalued-Hitter

NL: Lance Berkman

AL: Craig Monroe

Overvalued-Pitcher

NL: Jake Peavy

AL: Carl Pavano

Overvalued-Hitter

NL: Carlos Delgado

AL: Edgar Renteria

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 9:58 am

Over valued Pitcher

Oliver Perez and Carl Pavano, mainly with Perez health issues

Overvalued hitter

Melvin Mora, Sean Casey

Undervalued Pitcher

D Lowe (just wish he had better IF defense), Dan Haren just a gut feel

Undervalued hitter

Nomar and Julio Lugo

Good question-

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 10:28 am

My votes, based on the draft results I saw:

Overvalued hitter

Maggs (sorry, he just isn't 2nd round material - yes he went in the 2nd round in my league!)

Rollins - he is great but he went by 2nd round in most leagues I saw (and in mine as well)

Rentaria - tons of runs, but I don't see much else

Overvalued pitcher

Oswalt - I love the guy but has everyone forgotten how tender he is (plus the fact that he pitches in a bandbox)

Garcia - I would be very worried about that ball park

Loiza - enough said

Gagne - only because of the injury

Undervalued hitter

Sosa - I predict a monster comeback year - small park, lots to prove (and my team is counting on it!!)

Nomar - same thing - contract year to show that Bosox made a mistake

Lawton - the guy is a real 20/20 guy and always goes WAY late

Undervalued pitcher

Schilling - the guy is rock steady and fell late in many drafts

- if I truley knew I would win the league

Regards,

Spy aka Chris

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 10:31 am

I met the guy who took Mags at 29, hell of a nice guy asked him how he did after the draft he said quite well so we walked over and he showed me the board. It was the equivalent of seeing an ugly child and not knowing what to say.

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 10:37 am

Seriously, though... Jeremy Bonderman? I can't understand why everyone is so high on the guy. Lifelong Tiger's fan here and I don't see what you're seeing.

might as well have Mike Maroth or Jason Johnson... a lackluster set of stats and 10-12 wins. Good luck with him as your ace

D

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 10:43 am

I agree on Bonderman (even though I have him) but I got him in the 15th and so what ever he does is fine... if he goes nuts, great, if not, only a 15th round pick is wasted... I think he went way earlier in other drafts however.

stargells star · Post by **stargells star** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 10:55 am

Dyv,

You must be one of the types who isn't hot on a player until it's quite evident or obvious how good they are, Bonderman has showed a great deal of improvement , he also was close to a KO per inning , in keeper league he would be someone to take in the earlier rounds , in the NFBC , 15th round sounds about right, i don't expect him to post incredible numbers just yet, i figure maybe, 15 wins, just under a 4 ERA and around 1.25 WHIP

Balticsquids · Post by **Balticsquids** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 10:57 am

Yes,ill chime in , even in my local league , guys are going crazy about this Bonderman just about every guy u talk to makes him sound like Johnson or Cy young

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 11:02 am

Originally posted by stargells star:

Dyv,

You must be one of the types who isn't hot on a player until it's quite evident or obvious how good they are, Bonderman has showed a great deal of improvement , he also was close to a KO per inning , in keeper league he would be someone to take in the earlier rounds , in the NFBC , 15th round sounds about right, i don't expect him to post incredible numbers just yet, i figure maybe, 15 wins, just under a 4 ERA and around 1.25 WHIP Yep, I'm one of the types that only drafts 1st rounders. You got me pegged.

I've watched almost every professional pitch Jeremy Bonderman has made in his young career... and I don't see anything worth being excited about.

Ok, pick one:

Jeremy Bonderman or Jeff Weaver - who will have a better 2005

(and I'm not talking about keeper leagues. I'd be excitedly talking about the pure stroke of Ryan Garko if that was any issue at all right now...)

Dyv

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 11:03 am

Originally posted by Balticsquids:

Yes,ill chime in , even in my local league , guys are going crazy about this Bonderman just about every guy u talk to makes him sound like Johnson or Cy young THAT is my point here (in a thread called over-valued, etc.) is that while he'll be a fine player and a decent #2 or #3 pitcher, but he's not going to get any Cy Young consideration... that's ridiculous IMHO.

Dyv

Balticsquids · Post by **Balticsquids** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 11:32 am

Thats my point........as u would call him a #2, other peole in the world other then nfbc(yes there is 1) are calling him a Cy young and so on , and i really dont think the title was asking the question wanting to know his vaule in a keeper league ...........

dlongood · Post by **dlongood** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 11:34 am

Undrvalued Pithcers

Kip Wells

Freddy Garcia

Undervalued hitters

Mark Kotsay. Would .320 20 hrs + 100 runs qualify?

Ken Griffey - String of bad luck ends right here

Overvalued Pitcher

Oliver Perez

Randy Johnson-They guy had jello inserted into his knee. Breakdown waiting to happen.

Overvalued hitter

H Matsui

S Green-

stargells star · Post by **stargells star** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 11:38 am

I'm not saying he will be cy young , but in 2-3 years he will be considered top 20 Starting pitchers is all i'm saying

seefer · Post by **seefer** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 11:47 am

Most over valued pitchers:

NL: Mota (never closed before)

AL: BJ Ryan (same as above)

Most under valued pitchers:

NL: C. Carpenter

AL: B. Colon

Most over valued hitters:

NL: Shawn Green

AL: E. Chavez (just your basic 3 cat. hitter)

Most under valued hitters:

NL: Nomar

AL: Carlos Guillen

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 11:48 am

Just some thoughts:

Greinke will get the Cy Young attention, though, pobably not with how many wins the Royals will get him, no. Anyway, no one will blame me for taking him ahead of Bonderman (I think I did) when October rolls around.

Renteria, Rollins, seemed overvalued for sure. Their first and second round action started a shortstop run in my league.

Pavano was overrated. One good season without the peripherals to repeat, esp. in the American league.

Haren seemed overrated for the 14th or 15th. 20+ and he'd be a good pick. I see an ERA of 4 with double-digit wins.

I thought Loaiza was undervalued in my league as I got him in the 21st or something. I'm expecting a 4-4.25 ERA. That's all I need from him. Anything else is gravy.

Adam Dunn will be a first round pick next year.

stargells star · Post by **stargells star** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 11:55 am

oh.. and by the way,

I would rather have Bonderman over Weaver to answer your question

Balticsquids · Post by **Balticsquids** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 11:56 am

Adam Dunn will be a 1st rd pick next year,,Come on the guy hit 46 hr and 102 rbis and scored a 105 ....Get some balls make a real prediction, like G.Anderson will be Al-MVP

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 12:00 pm

Originally posted by stargells star:

oh.. and by the way,

I would rather have Bonderman over Weaver to answer your question No problem - I would take Weaver

Either way, we're probably saying the same thing... lol. Bonderman has some potential. I just don't think he's all that.

Maybe he will be, but in every league I've drafted this year someone else has liked him more than I do!

Dave

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 12:26 pm

Adam Dunn will be a 1st rd pick next year,,Come on the guy hit 46 hr and 102 rbis and scored a 105 ....Get some balls make a real prediction, like G.Anderson will be Al-MVP I'm not getting what you mean. Dunn is a 3-5 round pick this year. I'm not predicting A-rod is a first round pick. We already know that. I'm predicting that Dunn is undervalued this year and he'll perform like a first rounder. That's what the thread is about.

As far as a 'real' prediction, did I not predict Greinke to be a Cy Young candidate? If that's not going out on a limb, then he shouldn't be a tenth round pick. Duh.

In case you were wondering, Garret Anderson is nothing but a strong dl candidate, which is why I took Jeff DaVannon in the 29th round.

seefer · Post by **seefer** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 12:28 pm

Originally posted by bjoak:

Adam Dunn will be a first round pick next year. [/QB]I can't remember too many .250 hitters being 1st round fantasy picks in the last 10 years.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 12:29 pm

Bonderman is better than Weaver. It's a no-brainer. His league and his defense may run up his era, tho. It has in the past.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 12:34 pm

I can't remember too many .250 hitters being 1st round fantasy picks in the last 10 years. What is it with you people? You don't get me for the exact opposite reason as the last guy. I'm predicting he'll be a far better hitter this year, thus raising his value to a first round pick. I have him at .270 and the 18 bases he'll steal will also help to get him up there. Again, that is the point of the thread: prediction.

[ March 23, 2005, 06:37 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

superpion · Post by **superpion** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 1:39 pm

bjoak: I may be wrong but I think that a winking icon may imply the tone of sarcasm. If you couple that with the fact that Carlos Beltran went very early in EVERY first round of the entire competition (but doesn't hit for avg.) it seemed like seefer was only pointing out that your point was not that farfetched at all. Obviously, if Dunn improves his avg, it will help his status but he doesn't need to do that necessarily to get that 1st rd push.

And then, you proceeded to jump in his S#$^....

Looking back at his post, wouldn't you now agree that he was on YOUR side?

Big Fish · Post by **Big Fish** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 2:07 pm

You picked up Jeff Davanon because your team sucks. Also, it sounds like you were the beneficiary of a weaker league if Davanon was around in 29 which should help.

I dont get you Bjoak. I dont see your team the way you do that is for sure. I do like Dunn however and yes one of these years in the not to far future he will hit for 275-285. He is talented and young and will become a 1st rounder.

Getting him in the 4th is a steal in my opinion.

BTW, I drafted Sean Casey and felt alright about it until the other night I saw him in Sprin Training. YUCK. He looks awful. I dont have a good feeling about Casey.

Balticsquids · Post by **Balticsquids** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 2:10 pm

Super, whats wrong u didnt figure out yet that Bjob takes this way way way to serious like life and death , and knows everything and has not laughed or cracked a smile in 45 years , and if u read an old post of his , almost claims to be the most prepared owner in fantasy sports history...How dare u