Most UNDER/OVER-VALUED Player Predictions...

chico · Post by **chico** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 11:51 pm

Most Overvalued:

Derek Jeter: 14th pick. Can get similar production from M Young 3rd round, CGullien 12th round.

Alfonso Soriano: 6th pick. Steals have dropped from 41 to 18. HR's have dropped from 39 to 28. Swings at everything.

Most Undervalued:

Didn't get him, but I love Brad Wilkerson. Some cheap steals, 100 +walks and 30 hr power.

Carlos Gullien: 12 round. Though he may not steal this year, the hitting numbers should still be there.

Nevadaman · Post by **Nevadaman** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 12:20 am

I never dreamed there could be anyone who would seriously debate Crawford vs. Pods. That's like comparing Alyssa Milano with Barbara Bush. Crawford is 23 years old and progressing at a geometric rate. His OPS went from .671 to .781 in one year. His work ethic and devotion to baseball is so extreme that his coaches even had to tell him to take it easy. Crawford has stated that his goal is to lead the majors in steals. He has a perfect baseball body and strong mental makeup. He hasn't even begun to reach his potential. His ceiling is frightening. He will be the first pick in every baseball draft two years from now and will stay that way as long as he keeps running.

Pods has likely had his career years in every category. He's 29 years old and not progressing at all. In fact, he's going the other way off a cliff! His OPS dropped from .822 to .677 Hardly a comforting trend. Just playing in Chicago will not turn him into Rickey Henderson. Sorry. Runners tend to slow down at 29. And, of course you Pods guys aren't worried about the huge difference in catchers he will now face. NL catchers are a joke. They only threw out 28% of all runners, but AL catchers threw out 32%. Also, arguably the best defensive catcher in the history of the game (IROD) is in his same division. Also in the same division, Mauer threw out 31% in his rookie season and scouts say he will quickly become the top thrower in the league. Still like Pods? In the NL, the Phillies don't even hold the runners on. Piazza may be the worst catcher in history (defensively). Crawford got his steals against real catchers. Pods will find out quickly that all those free bags he got won't come so easy this year. Crawford will outhit him by 30-50 points; outscore him by 20-40 runs, outhomer him by 5-10, outRBI him by 20-25, and outsteal him by 10-15. These guys are not close to being equal!!

[ March 25, 2005, 06:27 AM: Message edited by: Nevadaman ]

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 1:14 am

MGBMARTY Im probably about 30 minutes foxwoods and 30 minutes from big fish, so im right in the middle.Big Fish just to keep the facts clean, pod is 29 not 31 .Baltic squids you hurt my feelings when you announced the allstars from last years american league auction[ top dawg, cell , pw or blaze meats, and somebody else . Well you forgot the BAD[ass] ANGELS thats me eddiejag. I know it took you a while to fiqure out who pete was, but yes we have battled on the roto fields, and the score is eddiejag 1 squid 0

O.K. guys have a good day

Big Fish · Post by **Big Fish** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 1:21 am

Ok. You are right about the age, 29, maybe lifetime journeyman in the minors is what threw me off.

To the Gent who picked up Carlos Guillen in the 12th round, great pick. I drafted him early in 9th in my league.

His knee they says is good and I believe he will steal a few bases 8-10.

Saratoga, Foxwood, NFBC, I am sensing a trend here....

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 2:29 am

How does someone get Carlos Guillen in round 12, I know it is an ACL and only one year but being picked somewhere around 170.

One stat I have not seen mentioned on Crawford is homeruns per at bat split in the 2nd half indicate that 15 is somewhat probable.

I apply the Pokey Reese rule to Posednick- Pokey had the one good year a few years ago and everyone then said his bad years were flukes for a while (well everybody except the people on here). Sure he will get his steals at least in the 1st half, but if Iduchi looks like a possible leadoff hitter and Uribe can slide to 2 you may see them load up and get someone like Ross Gload some ab's if Posednick hits like last year. Plus I think Guillen and Ken Williams have the most dysfunctional relationship. I think Ken Williams meddles more in the day to day of a ball club than anyone and can lead to some crazy things happening with playing time around there. My last comment is a long shot and not the reason I am avoiding Posednick but it is something to think about.

MGBMARTY · Post by **MGBMARTY** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 2:46 am

Nevada Man

The question was not who is the better player Pods or Crawford Crawford is The question was of value Crawford in 1st Rd or Pods in 4th As far as 20-40 runs more by crawford well guess your entitled to your opinion and you know the cliche about opinions. As far as HRS and Rbis the difference between the 2 will not have a tremendous effect. Time to move on Last projections for the 2

Crawford 291 105 17 56 58

Pods 275 110 12 52 62

Marty

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 3:09 am

You gentlemen have certainly nailed the discussion on Pods vs the Tampa Bay Flyer. MLB scouts should be impressed. I have but a few meager comments to add:

1) Pods is now in a great ballpark, but I do not see a signifant spike in home runs. Last year was a bit of a career HR year for him making repeating unlikely and, as is proper for someone with his speed, he hits about 50% of his balls on the ground. Ground balls generally have a hard time making it out of the park.

2) Of course, the same goes for Crawford (ground balls I mean). He has the upside of age and a maturing body. He will have a home run attributions to the 20-25 rate, but probably not until he becomes too expensive for the Devil Rays.

3) I would have taken Crawford in the first round had he made it too me. I had a chance to take Pods and passed as I thought the round was too early (I am sorry, I cannot remember which round, but I remember thinking it). His BA sucks, but I think I made a mistake. SB's went at such a premium, I ended up with a fine four category team for batting. Most of my guys would come in fourth in a foot race with a pregnant woman and my fat cousin Edna. :rolleyes:

4) Finally, Coops, don't say that Tex will have a better year than Rolen! I took Rolen in the first round!

Patsy Dean · Post by **Patsy Dean** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 3:52 am

Over Valued - Bonds

Under Valued - Mike Gonzalez

I know picking Bonds now is easy; but even before the injury you had to suspect the turmoil, his age and the lack of juice would bring him down.

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 4:47 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

How does someone get Carlos Guillen in round 12, I know it is an ACL and only one year but being picked somewhere around 170.

One stat I have not seen mentioned on Crawford is homeruns per at bat split in the 2nd half indicate that 15 is somewhat probable.

I apply the Pokey Reese rule to Posednick- Pokey had the one good year a few years ago and everyone then said his bad years were flukes for a while (well everybody except the people on here). Sure he will get his steals at least in the 1st half, but if Iduchi looks like a possible leadoff hitter and Uribe can slide to 2 you may see them load up and get someone like Ross Gload some ab's if Posednick hits like last year. Plus I think Guillen and Ken Williams have the most dysfunctional relationship. I think Ken Williams meddles more in the day to day of a ball club than anyone and can lead to some crazy things happening with playing time around there. My last comment is a long shot and not the reason I am avoiding Posednick but it is something to think about. I can't remember where I got Carlos Guillen... seems like Berkman in round 11 and Guillen in round 12 to me? I wish they'd get the rosters loaded so I could review my draft again.

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 5:43 am

I was looking at my draft notes and realized...

In an amazing coincidence, All the players I drafted are Undervalued, while All the players everyone drafted are Overvalued. Now the hard questions was what to do about the players I drafted on my Mixed League and not on my $100k League teams. My solution to this conundrum is simple - they are simultaneously overvalued in areas where I don't need the status, and undervalued in areas where I do need the stats. Hence my players only have upside...

Spy

P.S. Yes, I am getting antsy waiting for rosters too! Even though we have a week, and there really isn't a rush...

[ March 25, 2005, 05:24 PM: Message edited by: Spyhunter ]

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 5:59 am

If they do not get the rosters in soon, I may actually be forced to do some WORK!

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 6:32 am

Originally posted by Patsy Dean:

Over Valued - Bonds

Under Valued - Mike Gonzalez

I know picking Bonds now is easy; but even before the injury you had to suspect the turmoil, his age and the lack of juice would bring him down. How can a reliever who is 3rd on the totem pole for save opp's be undervalued ?

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 6:34 am

Originally posted by Dyv:

quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

How does someone get Carlos Guillen in round 12, I know it is an ACL and only one year but being picked somewhere around 170.

I can't remember where I got Carlos Guillen... seems like Berkman in round 11 and Guillen in round 12 to me? I wish they'd get the rosters loaded so I could review my draft again. [/QUOTE]I took him in the 8th and thought he was decent value there, but my lge hated pitchers so it would probably would've been a round later in any other lge.

Cooperstown · Post by **Cooperstown** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 8:13 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

If we consider each category evenly...HR, AVG, SB, RUN, RBI...I'll take Rolen vs. Tex-mex for another $200.00.

~Lance You're on Lance, but I don't want to hear any complaining when Rolen misses 100 AB's this year.

And Goggles, you're right, it is all in fun. I didn't realize his season was so concentrated, though I do know he slumped a bit late in the TX heat. We get the Rangers here on TV once in a while and he's really amazing to watch hit. Let's just say he doesn't get cheated too often.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 10:33 am

On teixeira , the guy who said he had the big july,that inflated his numbers . Well he also had 4 homers after 7 weeks , which wont happen again.I traded at that point and was my biggest regret of the year.It cost me 2nd place which was 1500.00 and a 2000.00 side bet . I wont even tell you the trade , i still have nightmares. Teixeira went 35 in the new york auction, which was to high for me. I also took m cabrera over him in the ultimate and we will see if that was the right move later.Teixeira is a monster !

EDDIEJAG

Fantasy Jungle · Post by **Fantasy Jungle** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 2:54 pm

Originally posted by chico:

Most Overvalued:

Derek Jeter: 14th pick. Can get similar production from M Young 3rd round, CGullien 12th round.

Alfonso Soriano: 6th pick. Steals have dropped from 41 to 18. HR's have dropped from 39 to 28. Swings at everything.

I disagree with the Soriano call. For one thing, it was one year. Its not like his steals and power have been on the decline for years. He could very well post 2002, 2003 numbers again. And if he comes close, he's at a great position to do so, because of the scarcity at 2B.

It wasnt by accident that this guy was a top 2 pick last year. I think he has a good chance to rebound.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 3:24 pm

Originally posted by coops:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

If we consider each category evenly...HR, AVG, SB, RUN, RBI...I'll take Rolen vs. Tex-mex for another $200.00.

~Lance You're on Lance, but I don't want to hear any complaining when Rolen misses 100 AB's this year.

And Goggles, you're right, it is all in fun. I didn't realize his season was so concentrated, though I do know he slumped a bit late in the TX heat. We get the Rangers here on TV once in a while and he's really amazing to watch hit. Let's just say he doesn't get cheated too often. [/QUOTE]Alright coops!

How do you wish to handle this...our words...and a check sent promptly after the regular season ends? A third party holding electronic funds? I made a $1000.00 side bet in WCOFF on word honor, but many people don't trust strangers. It's up to you if you want the security...and paying the % for the transfers. Thanks for making my first side bet of the 2005 MLB season...there will be many more!

~Lance

Cooperstown · Post by **Cooperstown** » Sat Mar 26, 2005 6:15 am

Word works for me. And anyway, do you think either of us could set word in this message board again if we didn't pay up.

Now, about deciding who has the best fantasy season. If Rolen hits a percentage point better than Tex, scores 1 more run and steals 2 more bases, but loses the HR race by 10 and the RBI race by 20, you could say Rolen won 3 categories but Tex was the better fantasy player. Do we let a 3rd party decide?

Or, we forget the SB category and use the other 4. If either player wins 3 out 4 categories, he wins. If it's a tie, we draw.

What do you think Lance?

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Mar 26, 2005 9:37 am

What do you guys think of Durazo? His position eligibility sucks, but the A's are thinking about playing him 3rd behind huge on-base guys Kotsay and Kendall. Durazo, a huge on-base guy himself, would also be in front of Chavez. Could turn into an RBI and run monster.

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Sat Mar 26, 2005 11:00 am

Originally posted by coops:

Word works for me. And anyway, do you think either of us could set word in this message board again if we didn't pay up.

Now, about deciding who has the best fantasy season. If Rolen hits a percentage point better than Tex, scores 1 more run and steals 2 more bases, but loses the HR race by 10 and the RBI race by 20, you could say Rolen won 3 categories but Tex was the better fantasy player. Do we let a 3rd party decide?

Or, we forget the SB category and use the other 4. If either player wins 3 out 4 categories, he wins. If it's a tie, we draw.

What do you think Lance? Why don't you guys use the impartial player rater final rating? there is one on our team websites and also on ESPN

As for Durazo, I have been waiting for that guy for a long time, He has potential, hopefully he has fixed the holes in his swing

Spy

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Sat Mar 26, 2005 11:02 am

Originally posted by coops:

Word works for me. And anyway, do you think either of us could set word in this message board again if we didn't pay up.

Now, about deciding who has the best fantasy season. If Rolen hits a percentage point better than Tex, scores 1 more run and steals 2 more bases, but loses the HR race by 10 and the RBI race by 20, you could say Rolen won 3 categories but Tex was the better fantasy player. Do we let a 3rd party decide?

Or, we forget the SB category and use the other 4. If either player wins 3 out 4 categories, he wins. If it's a tie, we draw.

What do you think Lance? I worded it pretty crude...and you can get out of the bet no problem...but I wanted each CATEGORY weighed equal value...so Tex can bomb 50 HRs, to Rolens 36...but it's still only worth ONE category. 3 categories or more wins. Like 300 avg vs. .298...still one category. Let me know if you want out...that's why I felt I'd win that bet...better in Avg, SB, and either runs/rbi or both...I'll give you HR.

~Lance

[ March 26, 2005, 05:03 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

Cooperstown · Post by **Cooperstown** » Mon Mar 28, 2005 4:24 pm

You know Lance, I would hate to lose $200 because Rolen had 4 SB's and Tex had 2. And since Tex is already on my team, I really don't need any extra incentive to root for him.

But since Pujols isn't on my team, I thought I'd substitute him for Tex. What do you say?

I now see what you mean by "treating all 5 categories equally". That wasn't what I had in mind. So... I'll take the out.

Thanks.