Wish I had the money!

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Thu Dec 15, 2005 5:34 am

It's amazing every time you see a baseball player sign a big contract. You try to understand how and why a baseball team made the move. Is the player worth it? Will he have the impact that his contract commands? What direction is the team going in? Are they a contender or pretender?

The signing that stands out the most to me this year is Kenny Rogers. I still can get over how he got 16 million for two years. Why? Is he going to put the Tigers over the top? What is baseball coming to when a 41 year old with an anger problem finally hits the lottery.

In the fantasy world, Rogers will be at the best a third or fourth starter in the NFBC this year. Most owners wouldn't even take the chance at the draft on him. He could be a time bomb in the making. Sure, if you had an injury, you might stick him in your line-up a week or two. You might ride him for a stretch. I don't think anyone would make a major investment in him. In the NFBC AL auction leagues, he went for $1 in 2004 and last year I think he was a reserve round pick. Is he one of the worse pitchers in the league? No, but what he brings to the table is he at the best an average pitcher with his underlying numbers being below average.

Maybe, I could see a contender signing him to be a fourth or fifth starter to eat up some innings. If I were a Tigers fan, I'd be extremely disappointed. Can you imagine Nomar Garciaparra will sign for about four million plus incentives? He has been a elite player in the past. He was once consider to be one of the big three at short stop. He can even find a SS job. Is he worth half the price of Kenny Rogers? Now, he would worth the gamble at that price.

What teams don't understand is you need a lot of pieces to the puzzle to win. Some team have the right nucleus and just need to add a few ingredents to win the title. Some teams are developing the pieces, but will they be patient enough to hold on to them long enough to have a chance. In today's changing baseball market, you can see it is going to tougher and tougher for teams like the Yankees and Red Sox to continue to contend. They are going to have a tougher time getting a hold of elite pitching. The Red Sox were lucky to catch a piece of the Marlins fire sale. Beckett could have a huge impact on the Red Sox's future as long as they are able to sign him. The Yankees will have to wait until that next big ace comes along. Who will that be? Most of the better pitchers are being signed earlier to keep them away from the free agent market. The way I see it. The Red Sox and Yankees should be in the hunt again, but I see a new team poised to emerge as a threat. Yes, tha team is the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

The Rays have all the position player they need to contend. Those players need to learn how to win together. I can see them being the Oakland A's of the early 70's. The only question for them is: will their pitching develop quick enough for them to hold onto all of their hitters before they reach free agency? At this time, they are about three pitcher short of contending. They really need an ace. Kazmir could be that in a couple of years. A solid major league 3rd or 4th starter. The last piece is a solid lefty in the bullpen. The question is will they find the pieces to put them over them top.

If I ran a team, this how I would start my spring training. Our goals each year would be simple. We think if we can win 90 games each year, we will be in the hunt every September for a play-off spot. Well that seems pretty tough for team that has bearly wins 70 games. In major league baseball the are so many close games. A team that wins the close game usually is a good team. Every week every major league team has a number of close games. We would like to win about four out of every seven games. The difference between winning 70 and 90 games is one game a week roughly. In order to do this we need be focused everyday and do all the little right. We might only need three or four more runs a week to do this.

We need to develop the thought process to win. We need to learn the mental toughness to excute in pressure situations. We need to have confidence in ourself to acomplish these goals.

Speed and power are two important factors in winning. A base runner who has speed can create pressure on a pitcher and the defense. The faster the player the more fear a defender will have on a tough play. Speed can even cause a mistake on a routine play. A team needs to put fear in the other team. The other way is power. The fear of power is more on the pitcher. A pitcher might make a mistake more often against a hitter he knows might take him deep.

With Rays having the speed, the power is developing. Will they have a manager not afraid of making mistakes? Someone ready to play aggresive. Someone to put the fear in the other team every time a player is on base. Will their pitchers be able to get the big outs?

The reason the Yankees won was they always had someone who could get the big outs. Their hitters were tough outs in big spots. The reason the Red Sox won was you couldn't get Ortiz out in a big spot. Foulke was able to get all the big outs.

I hope the Rays continue on the right path. I hope they don't sign any aging players. I hope they are smart enough to sign their key young players now, before they end up on the Red Sox and Yankees.

Now, back to fantasy baseball.....Do you know what it takes to win in the NFBC? What are the key pieces?

[ October 14, 2008, 10:02 PM: Message edited by: CC's Desperados ]

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Dec 15, 2005 8:55 am

All great points, CC, and most of what you preach is practiced by the Braves which is why they are in the hunt every year (yes, the bag does come home empty most years, but at least they are in the game). The Braves are probably the best 162 game team over the last decade and a half (not so great in the short series). Time Warner has forced their hands in the past couple of years with the payroll restrictions, but the Braves have always developed their own talent. Seven of the eight offensive slots for the Braves will be home grown (A. Jones, C. Jones, Francoeur, Langerhans, Giles, LaRouche and McCann) as well as most key back-ups (Betemit, Johnson, and Orr). Then the Braves lose home grown Furcal (great player now also overpaid in my opinion), but are able to replace with Renteria for a reasonable $6m (did I just say that) per year for three years. Not a bad way to run a team on $85m a year. Pitching staff needs help, but a lot of home grown talent here too with Smoltz (started in the Detroit system but came to the Braves as a minor leaguer), Davies, Sosa, Ramirez. Just a solid ball club used to doing the little things right. When I look at the rosters of the Major League teams now, I do not see too many teams that just jump out and say prohibative favorite. Most every one has too many questions (too young, too old, too many coming off injury, too little power, too little speed, too few arms...). It is going to be a real challenge.

As as to what does it take to win in Fantasy Baseball, I am afraid given how much better you have done over me (and most others) these last two years, I look for your insight. But, being a Southerner which means I cannot keep my opinions to myself, I will put a few key principles out there that I have used.

First and foremost, know the "value" of a player (price in auction or probable pick in draft). This is what I am weakest at. Once I become convinced someone is going to have a monster year, I get them sometimes much too soon or for much too much. Knowing true value (i.e. not only what you think of the player, but most likely what others will think of that player) will keep you from picking Sean Casey in the third round.

Second, while I think a good middle or late round pick/pick-up can be the difference between a money position and winning it all, the first five to eight (ten?) players you pick give you the base to be in a position to take advantage of your later intelligence or FA pick-ups. That is why I rarely have more than two pitchers in my top ten (rarely one in the top five) as pitchers are just too risky.

Third and last here, be prepared. Do your work in advance and have simple lists (not too many). I have never really understood computers at these events. All that tapping away doesn't seem to allow (me anyway) to absorb what is going on. Preparation also allows flexability and recognition (is that really a closer run going on or is there plenty of talent out there just to let it ride on by).

Anyway, that is my simple two cents worth and we all know what two cents are worth today.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Thu Dec 15, 2005 12:16 pm

Wayne, I like the thank the Braves for Marte. I don't think he will be a major impact this year, but I'm sure he will be good for many years to come. As for Renreria, I think he will fine. He will probably have a better year than last. I think the Red Sox will replace him with Alex Gonzalez. I think he will Hrs and his batting average will improve. We saved some money to sign someone. Hopefully, we don't sign a Kenny Rogers type!

All good points on what to win. I'd offer you my opionions, but I'm trying to figure out if I was just lucky the last two year. If the season were reversed, I think I would have won the first year. I blew at least 4 picks in rounds 10 to 20.

I heard a trade rumor Scott Olsen for Joey Gathright....I like the trade.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Fri Dec 16, 2005 3:55 am

CC's: All good points on what to win. I'd offer you my opionions, but I'm trying to figure out if I was just lucky the last two year. I'll figure it out for you.. nope it wasnt luck. So out with it, I'd like to hear what you think what it takes to win

Q

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Fri Dec 16, 2005 7:49 am

Shawn, good points on all. When you watch some of these crazy signings (Paul Byrd, two years for $14.25 million) you wonder how these GMs justify paying out some of these sums. It's as if they've never played Rotisserie baseball and come up with a way to create a winning team within their means. Free agency is like a drug that every GM just has to try, when in reality you don't have to overdose on it if you've built a solid organization that occasionally stocks talent.

I have a feeling you'd like to try your hand at running one of these organizations!!! Maybe we'll all buy one together some day!

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Fri Dec 16, 2005 9:26 am

CC, all I can say is it depends. Frankly, I think you can do all the analysis, planning, determination of park effects etc... and all you can do is improve your CHANCE to win. In the end, Fantasy Baseball is about real life players. No spreadsheet can predict an car accident, or whatever...

You have done a great job at this so I have little to add, except, I learned my own flaws this last season: Impatience. Like dropping Tino Martinez before the season started or multiple other times where I picked great players but didn't catch their good performances.

To me, I agree with the post above - your round 1-8 must perform. Period. If you have an injury with one of your big guns, or a crap season, you are going to be working hard to replace them (and the problem is, they are going to be stars, and it will be hard to sit them). And if you have 2-3 fall apart, then you are pretty much done.

Rounds 8-17 are the value picks, with rounds 18 on being the roll the dice picks....

Spy

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Fri Dec 16, 2005 1:59 pm

Originally posted by Quahogs:

quote:CC's: All good points on what to win. I'd offer you my opionions, but I'm trying to figure out if I was just lucky the last two year. I'll figure it out for you.. nope it wasnt luck. So out with it, I'd like to hear what you think what it takes to win

Q [/QUOTE]Are you coming up to Wellfleet for the holidays? I'd talk some fantasy baseball with you.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Sat Dec 17, 2005 5:01 am

CC,

yes, my side of the fam this year for Christmas! We head up Christmas morn and head back down tuesday. I'll have some free time on monday - know of a bar in Orleans? doesnt the whole cape shut down in the winter? How'd you fair with the power outage - must have been freaking out with it being the start of FF playoffs !

Q

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Dec 17, 2005 7:29 am

[ December 17, 2005, 01:36 PM: Message edited by: CC's Desperados ]

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Dec 17, 2005 7:34 am

I was out in that mess the day it happened. I had to drive back from P-town at 4 PM. Eastham and Orleans were hit the hardest. I usaully drive up that end of the Cape everyday, but I think Monday is a holiday. If you want to send me a private message, I give you my number and we can go from there. I didn't lose power at my house. Do you play pool?

[ December 17, 2005, 01:34 PM: Message edited by: CC's Desperados ]

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sun Dec 18, 2005 3:11 pm

I agree with you guys on overspending, but this iminent Washburn deal makes it seem like Kenny Rogers, for example, is practically giving away his services.

Actually, I like the Byrd deal as he'll look good in front of Cleveland's defense and then they can trade him for cheap talent before next year.

I also think the A's did well for themselves in the Loaiza deal.

[ December 18, 2005, 09:21 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Mon Dec 19, 2005 6:17 am

CC,

Marte will be a monster for the SOX and a real cornerstone-of-the-organization type for years to come. The Braves are going to miss him in years to come, but for now, it was a good trade for both. I do not think it is much of a stretch to say Renteria has the chance to get back his all-star status and putting veteran talent with his playoff experience on such a team for $6m a year is a real get (of course, he is no Kenny Rogers or Jeromy Burnitz, but then again, who is!).

And take credit where credit is due...if you did not have a sound philosophy (share it with us also-rans will you!) you would not have been in the position to take advantage of the situations as they offered themselves.

One thing I forgot to mention as being key to winning and that is the love and support of a good woman..without that...phew! OK, I am back now...my wife just left the room!

Anyway, I hope to be more of a challenge for the league this year. One of the things I like to do is find the hot team that has put all the pieced together. I really think this is going to be a tough year to find that hot team to ride to glory. It seems to me there are a bunch of pre-peak players and a bunch of aging former wonders. The peak players to me appear few and spread out. But I will keep looking!

Anybody else think that Soriano in Washington is going to be an absolute disaster?

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Jan 28, 2006 1:48 am

Mr. King,

Well, so much for Marte helping the Sox. I guess Crisp is more major league ready. It would have been nice to have both players.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Feb 02, 2006 12:04 am

Pretty good trade again for Boston (I wonder how much Epstein had to do with it) as Coco gives them a proven pro (as well as stay cruncy in milk).

IF Marte makes the show this year as an injury sub or late season call-up, the vast confines of the Cleveland stadium will turn some of that potential power into gappers at best. Tough stadium for a hitter to break into.

Still, spring training could be fun. How long will Cleveland stick with Aaron Boone if he has a slow start?

Cherokee Nation · Post by **Cherokee Nation** » Thu Feb 02, 2006 7:30 am

How big is his salary ?

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Feb 02, 2006 9:28 am

Which his? In 2005 I think Crisp made a whopping $364.9k. Gekko, can you loan him a few?

I do not recall seeing him sign a new contract so I do not know if he has a larger contract now or not. In any regard, MUCH cheaper than Damon.

Marte would have made the MLB minimum during his cup of coffee.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Tue Oct 14, 2008 3:45 pm

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

It's amazing every time you see a baseball player sign a big contract. You try to understand how and why a baseball team made the move. Is the player worth it? Will he have the impact that his contract commands? What direction is the team going in? Are they a contender or pretender?

The signing that stands out the most to me this year is Kenny Rogers. I still can get over how he got 16 million for two years. Why? Is he going to put the Tigers over the top? What is baseball coming to when a 41 year old with an anger problem finally hits the lottery.

In the fantasy world, Rogers will be at the best a third or fourth starter in the NFBC this year. Most owners wouldn't even take the chance at the draft on him. He could be a time bomb in the making. Sure, if you had an injury, you might stick him in your line-up a week or two. You might ride him for a stretch. I don't think anyone would make a major investment in him. In the NFBC AL auction leagues, he went for $1 in 2004 and last year I think he was a reserve round pick. Is he one of the worse pitchers in the league? No, but what he brings to the table is he at the best an average pitcher with his underlying numbers being below average.

Maybe, I could see a contender signing him to be a fourth or fifth starter to eat up some innings. If I were a Tigers fan, I'd be extremely disappointed. Can you imagine Nomar Garciaparra will sign for about four million plus incentives? He has been a elite player in the past. He was once consider to be one of the big three at short stop. He can even find a SS job. Is he worth half the price of Kenny Rogers? Now, he would worth the gamble at that price.

What teams don't understand is you need a lot of pieces to the puzzle to win. Some team have the right nucleus and just need to add a few ingredents to win the title. Some teams are developing the pieces, but will they be patient enough to hold on to them long enough to have a chance. In today's changing baseball market, you can see it is going to tougher and tougher for teams like the Yankees and Red Sox to continue to contend. They are going to have a tougher time getting a hold of elite pitching. The Red Sox were lucky to catch a piece of the Marlins fire sale. Beckett could have a huge impact on the Red Sox's future as long as they are able to sign him. The Yankees will have to wait until that next big ace comes along. Who will that be? Most of the better pitchers are being signed earlier to keep them away from the free agent market. The way I see it. The Red Sox and Yankees should be in the hunt again, but I see a new team poised to emerge as a threat. Yes, tha team is the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

The Rays have all the position player they need to contend. Those players need to learn how to win together. I can see them being the Oakland A's of the early 70's. The only question for them is: will their pitching develop quick enough for them to hold onto all of their hitters before they reach free agency? At this time, they are about three pitcher short of contending. They really need an ace. Kazmir could be that in a couple of years. A solid major league 3rd or 4th starter. The last piece is a solid lefty in the bullpen. The question is will they find the pieces to put them over them top.

If I ran a team, this how I would start my spring training. Our goals each year would be simple. We think if we can win 90 games each year, we will be in the hunt every September for a play-off spot. Well that seems pretty tough for team that has bearly wins 70 games. In major league baseball the are so many close games. A team that wins the close game usually is a good team. Every week every major league team has a number of close games. We would like to win about four out of every seven games. The difference between winning 70 and 90 games is one game a week roughly. In order to do this we need be focused everyday and do all the little right. We might only need three or four more runs a week to do this.

We need to develop the thought process to win. We need to learn the mental toughness to excute in pressure situations. We need to have confidence in ourself to acomplish these goals.

Speed and power are two important factors in winning. A base runner who has speed can create pressure on a pitcher and the defense. The faster the player the more fear a defender will have on a tough play. Speed can even cause a mistake on a routine play. A team needs to put fear in the other team. The other way is power. The fear of power is more on the pitcher. A pitcher might make a mistake more often against a hitter he knows might take him deep.

With Rays having the speed, the power is developing. Will they have a manager not afraid of making mistakes? Someone ready to play aggresive. Someone to put the fear in the other team every time a player is on base. Will their pitchers be able to get the big outs?

The reason the Yankees won was they always had someone who could get the big outs. Their hitters were tough outs in big spots. The reason the Red Sox won was you couldn't get Ortiz out in a big spot. Foulke was able to get all the big outs.

I hope the Rays continue on the right path. I hope they don't sign any aging players. I hope they are smart enough to sign their key young players now, before they end up on the Red Sox and Yankees.

Now, back to fantasy baseball.....Do you know what it takes to win in the NFBC? What are the key pieces? It looks like we are witnessing a changing of the guards in the AL east.

The Red Sox couldn't win the big games against the Rays in September and looks like Tampa is the better team in this series.

GOD Loves You · Post by **GOD Loves You** » Wed Oct 15, 2008 3:39 am

If you look at the Rays minor league system...the best is yet to come. They are sooo young, yet so talented. And the best part, they are locking everybody in, right now, while they can afford them.

Shawn, it looks like they found that lefty you were talking about. Who would've thought Howell could do what he did this season? Add in the "Aussie" and a few other guys and you can see why they are winning. The bullpen has always been the key. I've watched numerous games where the Rays were ahead 1,2,3, sometimes 4-5 runs and the pen would blow it. I think it was 2 years ago, if the games ended after 7 innings, The Rays would've had the best record in baseball.

Now that they have a pen, they are setting themselves up to have one of the best teams....for years to come.

Getting rid of Pinella made a huge difference too. Maddon is perfect for the young guys....Lou was better suited for veterans. Could you see Lou getting a Mohawk like Maddon did? That would've been something to witness.

I love the way they bounced back from the loss in game one. And to go up to Boston and destroy the Sox in those two games....icing on the cake. Now all they need to do is come back to town and keep playing the way they have been.

It sucked having the Red Sox fans in town. We went to the first game of the ALCS and quite a few of the Boston fans were kicked out due to their drunkeness. Now we might have the Philly fans to deal with :rolleyes: . I was hoping for the Dodgers to make it, but it doesn't look like that's going to happen.

Nice writeup, BTW.

[ October 15, 2008, 09:40 AM: Message edited by: GOD Loves You ]

cindy · Post by **cindy** » Fri Oct 17, 2008 1:54 pm

nice call Shawn!

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Fri Oct 17, 2008 6:15 pm

Last year is when I really started to notice the Rays. Kazmir's second half surge, the emergence of James Shields, and of course all of the young bats. I live in Nashville and David Price is the real deal. Just another one of many talented players on the Rays.

Nice call indeed by Shawn.

Liquidhippo · Post by **Liquidhippo** » Sat Oct 18, 2008 4:54 pm

Looking more and more like the greatest collapse in post season history. Unreal. The Rays are toast.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Oct 18, 2008 5:02 pm

Originally posted by Liquidhippo:

Looking more and more like the greatest collapse in post season history. Unreal. The Rays are toast. I thought the Red Sox over the Yankees was the greatest comeback/collapse of postseason history. :rolleyes:

I really hope they don't win the World Series so I don't have to hear how special they are from now through March.

[ October 18, 2008, 11:02 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

GOD Loves You · Post by **GOD Loves You** » Sat Oct 18, 2008 5:03 pm

I'm feeling sick.

Liquidhippo · Post by **Liquidhippo** » Sat Oct 18, 2008 5:09 pm

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by Liquidhippo:

Looking more and more like the greatest collapse in post season history. Unreal. The Rays are toast. I thought the Red Sox over the Yankees was the greatest comeback/collapse of postseason history. :rolleyes:

I really hope they don't win the World Series so I don't have to hear how special they are from now through March. [/QUOTE]Yes, emphasis on 'was', past tense, but the Rays were up 7-0 late in the clincher, and somehow found a way to lose, which makes that comeback/collapse pale in comparison.

[ October 18, 2008, 11:12 PM: Message edited by: Liquidhippo ]

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Sun Oct 19, 2008 8:13 am

Originally posted by GOD Loves You:

I'm feeling sick.

As miserable as it's been for the Rays until this year, you have no idea what's it's like to be a Cub's fan.