Why I am not winning the NFBC: A Sob Story!

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 6:23 am

If I had to point to one thing (besided poor management), it would be my starting pitching really has let me down. Generally I start six SP each week and get anywhere from five to ten starts each week, averaging just over seven starts per week. In the past two years, I might not select a starter in my first ten picks, then heavily weight my next ten selections on starters. This year I had three starters (Schmidt 6th, Vazquez 11th, and D. Davis 12th) plus Prior much earlier than I normally do. I added Millwood in the 16th. I really thought this was a solid core. I added B. Chen, R. Lopez, J. Johnson, and M. Batista hoping one or two would be solid replacements. NOT! Sure, they might have a hot start when they are on my bench (like Batista in his first start in COL), but as soon as I put them in (and yes I try to put them in in favorable parks/opponents), they get lit up like gas cans.

My SP stats (including the guys I picked up FAAB like Francis, Madson, Cruz, Vargas) have yeilded a 4.873 ERA, 37 W in 103 GS, a 1.425 WHIP and 453K. TERRIBLE. I have no one to blame but myself, but going into the season all these guys from all the projections I saw (Shandler, Krause, Rototimes, Rotowire, et al) were much better. All (except Schmidt) have been seriously disappointing. I am stuck in the middle of the pack playing for respectability.

Why aren't you winning?

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 10:09 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Why aren't you winning? because I was copying off your draft sheets during the draft

Q

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 1:19 pm

That was pretty good quahogs!

Speaking of quahogs, I am dead last in a league you are also in - the Ultamite League...I picked first. It seemed like my picks were always below value picks, but at the same time, people who weren't going to be around when the picks came back to me. I took ARod first and then Peavy (waste). But, overall, my OF is just awful...players like Kotsay, Rowand, Brady Clark...also, in the 4th/5th round, I got M. Giles and J. Perralta. Not to make excuses, but I can't help but think I'll never request a #1 pick in baseball again!

I have 31 points. YOu could triple my point total and I'd still not place in the money...and the entry fee was a lot to have the worst team I've ever picked!

But, I will be back next year...

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 2:48 pm

Poopy,

the 1st pick is deceivingly difficult. Both ends are. I know Viper has analyzed the benefits of picking in the middle. To me the ends require you to pick 2 players at once to solve 2 needs while exposed to the constantly shifting available player - moreso than any other draft position (28 players taken before choosing again). Next year set your KDS to have the #1 at the bottom, I guarantee you'll never get it again !

Q

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 11:59 pm

Originally posted by Quahogs:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Why aren't you winning? because I was copying off your draft sheets during the draft

Q [/QUOTE]Love it! That will teach you!

Actually, as it turned out, since I was in Tampa #3 we had some folks on the phone before me and after me. I pratically had the whole first third of the "U" to myself. Lots of room to spread out! I wish some folks had used my sheets...they would be a screwed up as I am and I might be in the running. At least I haven't lost any more ground the last couple of days! :rolleyes:

On the KDS, I requested the straight 1-15 like most I guess because I wanted a shot at Pujols and A-Rod. And I felt that Vladdy and Big Tex had a chance to be very close to them (if Pujols 2005 SB turned out to be an anomoly).

I got #4, I got Big Tex, I got screwed.

Coming back around, in the seven slots before my pick, five quality MI (Utley, Rollins, Soriano, Young, and Jeter) were still out there so I thought I had a chance at one of the them. Nope. Thank the stars above "Mr. Hot Spring" Aramis Ramirez was there for me to pick.

I did pick up C. Lee in the third going around the corner, so leaving the draft I thought I had three potential first rounders as far as stats go and I was really happy I set the KDS up the way I did. This was a change for me as I have always liked drafting in the middle. Now I am going to have to go back and reevaluate. At least it will give me something to do in January and February!

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:38 am

Edwards Kings,

#4 was a tough spot. Teix's 05 #'s were too good to pass up and I'm sure Crawford's wrist talk scared many off. Plus if you look at the other drafts I wonder how many had a rollins or a jeter avail to the #4 team in the 2nd rd. Just not yours. Right idea but bad break.

Q

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 7:15 am

Why am I not winning? One simple choice. In my first 2 satellite drafts I had taken Thome in the 5th. Then the big day came and Voilia in teh 5th round, there was Thome, just waiting for me to pick him. Alas, so was Felix Hernandez. I have always over picked hitting over pitching so this year I thought: here it he is, King Felix.

Even worse, my draft partner RT Said: Take Thome, and I inhaled, then said 'Felix' and the rest is history. I have done numerous analysis and I would be in the top 1 or 2 in LV 6 if I had just made one different decision.

Pretty sad.

Hangtown · Post by **Hangtown** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 6:10 am

Sorry Spy, but i don't think picking Thome over King Felix would have helped you as much as you've analyzied?

If you took Thome in the 5th round, would you also pass on a pitcher in the 6th??? That's when you took Rolen and the net effect on your league standings would probably be zero, maybe +1?

The difference would not be Thome, but the pitcher you decided to take in the 6th or 7th, which would have been????

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 12:01 pm

Hangtown, admitedly it is tough to know for sure, but in 2 satellites I had taken thome in 5th and rolen in 6th. I was convinced they were going to have huge seasons. I most likely would not taken another pitcher as typically in the satellites I wasn't drafting my first starter till the 9th or 10th where I was typically taking Schilling or Zito. I would have taken another pitcher in the mid rounds, more than likely a starter instead of Chad Harvella. Most likely Erik Bedard who I was a big fan of!

So Bedard would have given me slightly better stats than felix and I sould have had Thome in at CI instead of Boone. Pretty big swing...

Hangtown · Post by **Hangtown** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 3:09 pm

Yup, that would have been better but with all the King Felix hype, he was tough to pass up.

I'm also glad you didn't as I was eyeing him in the 5th too...

Lost Sailor · Post by **Lost Sailor** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 2:07 am

well... my sob story is that I took two pitchers in the first three rds, and I suck in pitching. Couldn't pass on Santana with the 13th overall, and saw Oswalt out there at the 43rd, so I figgered I had my two 20-game winners with 200+ Ks each locked up. Well... hasn't quite worked out that way. Seen a lot of folks say that you should never take an arm before the 5th rd, and perhaps there's some merit to that, but come on... it's JOHAN!

Crosby and Kent didn't help, as well as botching any possibility of doing well in steals by grabbing Taveras in the 7th.

Stuck in 6th place (not thrilling, but nice). Learned a lot in my first year though, and will definitely be back.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 6:57 am

Originally posted by Lost Sailor:

well... my sob story is that I took two pitchers in the first three rds, and I suck in pitching. Couldn't pass on Santana with the 13th overall, and saw Oswalt out there at the 43rd, so I figgered I had my two 20-game winners with 200+ Ks each locked up. Well... hasn't quite worked out that way. Seen a lot of folks say that you should never take an arm before the 5th rd, and perhaps there's some merit to that, but come on... it's JOHAN!

Crosby and Kent didn't help, as well as botching any possibility of doing well in steals by grabbing Taveras in the 7th.

Stuck in 6th place (not thrilling, but nice). Learned a lot in my first year though, and will definitely be back. I wouldn't say you shouldn't take pitching early. In your case, you can argue that you should have taken *more* early pitching since you suck in it. Also, you can hardly complain about Santana and Oswalt is at least playable.

The draft is a market and on any given year the market changes. This past year, pitching was undervalued in general and there were a lot of great specific pitchers who slipped through so it wasn't the best year to take pitchers while everyone was loading up on hitting, but next year's market could be completely different. Once you start making hard and fast rules, you're limiting your ability to compete in the market.