looking at the first round of the Pre-Mag Mock going on, does anyone agree with me that the following players shouldn't be taken in the first round...
Johan Santana
Carlos Beltran
Bobby Abreu
Manny Ramirez
Round 1
1 Albert Pujols /Doughboys
2 Alex Rodriguez/ Vander
3 Jose Reyes/ Edward Kings
4 Alfonso Soriano/ Dak
5 Ryan Howard/ Chest Rockwell
6 Carl Crawford/ JEagle
7 Johan Santana/ Spyhunter
8 Vladimir Guerrero/ bjoak
9 Chase Utley/ Tradesman Kettleers
10 Carlos Beltran/ KJ Duke
11 David Wright/ Raw Talent
12 Bobby Abreu/ BEF
13 David Ortiz/ Kimo
14 Ichiro Suzuki/ Mr. Dalrae
15 Manny Ramirez/ Don Mathis
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Gordon Gekko
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headhunters
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santanna is arguably the mvp of fantasy. i know pitchers get hurt more- but as you go further down the 1st round- you are getting marginal returns. the fact that many people question 3-4 of the batting picks- while no one questions santana being the top pitcher sort of proves it. if he stays healthy- he is almost a lock to be a top 3 pitcher. can't say that about any of the batters 8- 16
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Manny and Abreu are still good, but now are in the second round. I can't disagree with what Headhunters just posted, but for me I won't take any pitcher in the first 2 rounds. Even Santana who I agree is the best. I would still have Beltran in round 1 though. Hard to match his power and speed and he gets to hit 3rd in the Mets lineup so rbi and runs aren't hard to come by.
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DiamondKing
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Drafting from the 8 slot in tampa league 2 last year.I sat down planning on doing the one thing I had always said I would never do,take a pitcher in the first round.Well,Slacker Brothers took Santana at pick 7.As it turned out I ended up with one of the best offensive teams in the NFBC.But,my pitching was rotten.The worst part is that I liked most of the pitchers that I ended up with on my team.Kazmir,Beckett,Sheets,Bonderman etc.
All pigs are created equal.Some are more equal than others.
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Santana and Beltran are going first round. Manny is stretching it at the bottom of the first and more than likely be a second rounder in most drafts. Abreu is in a great situation, but I wouldn't take him in the first two rounds....Good to have you back, Gekko.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!
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I'm the guy who took Abreu at #12 and was pretty roundly criticized for it, which is fine. I guess my projections for him (.290/25/120/120/25) are just higher than anybody else's, as I think he's in for one last monster year (based on his numbers after the trade).
In reviewing the next 10 picks after mine, the only other guy that I probably would have taken was Miguel Cabrera, who will give better AVG and HR but not as many SB's as Abreu. I wouldn't take Manny because of the very good chance that he'll completely flake out again and get traded. I wouldn't take Ortiz or Hafner because I don't believe in filling my DH slot in the first round, especially when a guy like Giambi is still out there available in the 6th round (which is where we are now).
I was looking for balance, and to me that means players like Abreu, Bay and Sizemore (I would have taken Bay in Round 2 but missed my pick since I was on vacation and was given Berkman instead; no complaints!). I'd rather have 8 steady full-timers who all go around .280/25/90/10 than depend on a couple of "specialists" in each category (my pick of Pierre in the 3rd round notwithstanding!
)
In reviewing the next 10 picks after mine, the only other guy that I probably would have taken was Miguel Cabrera, who will give better AVG and HR but not as many SB's as Abreu. I wouldn't take Manny because of the very good chance that he'll completely flake out again and get traded. I wouldn't take Ortiz or Hafner because I don't believe in filling my DH slot in the first round, especially when a guy like Giambi is still out there available in the 6th round (which is where we are now).
I was looking for balance, and to me that means players like Abreu, Bay and Sizemore (I would have taken Bay in Round 2 but missed my pick since I was on vacation and was given Berkman instead; no complaints!). I'd rather have 8 steady full-timers who all go around .280/25/90/10 than depend on a couple of "specialists" in each category (my pick of Pierre in the 3rd round notwithstanding!
)"There is but one game and that game is baseball." – John McGraw
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Agree on your balance principle. I also like a guy projected for the second round that I have rated in the first. If I think I can get him in the second I won't take him in the first and will gamble that I can take another first round guy and still get my other first rounder in the second. Nothing wrong with Abreu and I would've much rahter had Abreu than the Damon my low second round guy that I took. And I took Damon because of the balance reasons you mentioned. It also played into why I still took AROD with the second pick of the draft. He's good in all catagories. There were other reasons too. I thought I'd get s#%t for taking him that high, but nobody said anything negative. 1 other person even told me he still had him #2 also. I project Abreu @ 290 100+ runs and rbi, 15 to 20 hr's and probably 25 sb's. He is getting older and his sb's are liable to start to decrease and even though the Yankee's seem to steal anyway sometimes they may adopt a non steal policy to let their sluggers hit.
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Originally posted by BEF:
I'm the guy who took Abreu at #12 and was pretty roundly criticized for it, which is fine. I guess my projections for him (.290/25/120/120/25) are just higher than anybody else's, as I think he's in for one last monster year (based on his numbers after the trade).
In reviewing the next 10 picks after mine, the only other guy that I probably would have taken was Miguel Cabrera, who will give better AVG and HR but not as many SB's as Abreu. I wouldn't take Manny because of the very good chance that he'll completely flake out again and get traded. I wouldn't take Ortiz or Hafner because I don't believe in filling my DH slot in the first round, especially when a guy like Giambi is still out there available in the 6th round (which is where we are now).
I was looking for balance, and to me that means players like Abreu, Bay and Sizemore (I would have taken Bay in Round 2 but missed my pick since I was on vacation and was given Berkman instead; no complaints!). I'd rather have 8 steady full-timers who all go around .280/25/90/10 than depend on a couple of "specialists" in each category (my pick of Pierre in the 3rd round notwithstanding!) I think people would have more issues with your 25 HR projection than the .290 or 25 steals. I don't know that 7 whole homeruns as a Yankee lends any credence to your argument and--aside from the small sample size blip at the end of the year--you haven't really provided any evidence that he wll have a monster year rather than continuing down the path of decline that has already begun.
120, 120 is also too high. He can maybe hit one of those depending on his placement in the lineup. It is hard to believe he will continue to bat third.
Nevertheless, a player that hits .290 with 15 homers, 25-30 steals, and 220 RBI's + Runs has real value. I never faulted you for valuing him that high, but you could have clearly gotten him in the 2nd so why bother with him in the first?
BTW, if the last few years of baseball have taught us anything, it's that Manny Ramirez isn't going anywhere but to the same ballpawk he's been going to for the last 6 years.
I'm the guy who took Abreu at #12 and was pretty roundly criticized for it, which is fine. I guess my projections for him (.290/25/120/120/25) are just higher than anybody else's, as I think he's in for one last monster year (based on his numbers after the trade).
In reviewing the next 10 picks after mine, the only other guy that I probably would have taken was Miguel Cabrera, who will give better AVG and HR but not as many SB's as Abreu. I wouldn't take Manny because of the very good chance that he'll completely flake out again and get traded. I wouldn't take Ortiz or Hafner because I don't believe in filling my DH slot in the first round, especially when a guy like Giambi is still out there available in the 6th round (which is where we are now).
I was looking for balance, and to me that means players like Abreu, Bay and Sizemore (I would have taken Bay in Round 2 but missed my pick since I was on vacation and was given Berkman instead; no complaints!). I'd rather have 8 steady full-timers who all go around .280/25/90/10 than depend on a couple of "specialists" in each category (my pick of Pierre in the 3rd round notwithstanding!
) I think people would have more issues with your 25 HR projection than the .290 or 25 steals. I don't know that 7 whole homeruns as a Yankee lends any credence to your argument and--aside from the small sample size blip at the end of the year--you haven't really provided any evidence that he wll have a monster year rather than continuing down the path of decline that has already begun.120, 120 is also too high. He can maybe hit one of those depending on his placement in the lineup. It is hard to believe he will continue to bat third.
Nevertheless, a player that hits .290 with 15 homers, 25-30 steals, and 220 RBI's + Runs has real value. I never faulted you for valuing him that high, but you could have clearly gotten him in the 2nd so why bother with him in the first?
BTW, if the last few years of baseball have taught us anything, it's that Manny Ramirez isn't going anywhere but to the same ballpawk he's been going to for the last 6 years.
Chance favors the prepared mind.
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Originally posted by bjoak:
[/qb]I think people would have more issues with your 25 HR projection than the .290 or 25 steals. I don't know that 7 whole homeruns as a Yankee lends any credence to your argument and--aside from the small sample size blip at the end of the year--you haven't really provided any evidence that he wll have a monster year rather than continuing down the path of decline that has already begun.
120, 120 is also too high. He can maybe hit one of those depending on his placement in the lineup. It is hard to believe he will continue to bat third.
Nevertheless, a player that hits .290 with 15 homers, 25-30 steals, and 220 RBI's + Runs has real value. I never faulted you for valuing him that high, but you could have clearly gotten him in the 2nd so why bother with him in the first?
BTW, if the last few years of baseball have taught us anything, it's that Manny Ramirez isn't going anywhere but to the same ballpawk he's been going to for the last 6 years. [/quote]
Good points all, bjoak. I am not of the opinion, however, that he is on a path of decline. Up until last year he had 7 straight years of 20+ dingers and hit over .300 5 of those years. I base my 2007 power projections solely on what he did in the month of September 2006, which was 5 dingers in 91 AB's. Over a full season that's somewhere between 25 and 30 homers.
Just out of curiosity, why wouldn't he continue to bat 3rd? I would think the lineup would be Damon/Jeter/Abreu/ARod/Giambi/Matsui/Posada/Melky/Cano. Unless they decide that Cano is ready to hit higher, move him to 2nd and everybody else gets pushed down one slot. Even so, no matter how you slice it, Abreu is going to get a TON of RBI opportunities and is also going to use his .400+ OBA to score a lot of runs as well. I can certainly foresee 120/120 on the horizon.
Could I have gotten him coming around the turn in the second round, 7 picks later? Perhaps. Maybe I should have taken Cabrera and held my breath for Abreu. But again, considering my aversion to Manny and also to DH's in the first round, who else should I have taken? Ichiro? Better in AVG/SB but a huge dropoff in HR/RBI. Texiera? I picked up Delgado in the 4th round, I don't see that much difference. Bottom line, I don't see anybody other than Cabrera that was taken after Abreu that I would have preferred.
[/qb]I think people would have more issues with your 25 HR projection than the .290 or 25 steals. I don't know that 7 whole homeruns as a Yankee lends any credence to your argument and--aside from the small sample size blip at the end of the year--you haven't really provided any evidence that he wll have a monster year rather than continuing down the path of decline that has already begun.
120, 120 is also too high. He can maybe hit one of those depending on his placement in the lineup. It is hard to believe he will continue to bat third.
Nevertheless, a player that hits .290 with 15 homers, 25-30 steals, and 220 RBI's + Runs has real value. I never faulted you for valuing him that high, but you could have clearly gotten him in the 2nd so why bother with him in the first?
BTW, if the last few years of baseball have taught us anything, it's that Manny Ramirez isn't going anywhere but to the same ballpawk he's been going to for the last 6 years. [/quote]
Good points all, bjoak. I am not of the opinion, however, that he is on a path of decline. Up until last year he had 7 straight years of 20+ dingers and hit over .300 5 of those years. I base my 2007 power projections solely on what he did in the month of September 2006, which was 5 dingers in 91 AB's. Over a full season that's somewhere between 25 and 30 homers.
Just out of curiosity, why wouldn't he continue to bat 3rd? I would think the lineup would be Damon/Jeter/Abreu/ARod/Giambi/Matsui/Posada/Melky/Cano. Unless they decide that Cano is ready to hit higher, move him to 2nd and everybody else gets pushed down one slot. Even so, no matter how you slice it, Abreu is going to get a TON of RBI opportunities and is also going to use his .400+ OBA to score a lot of runs as well. I can certainly foresee 120/120 on the horizon.
Could I have gotten him coming around the turn in the second round, 7 picks later? Perhaps. Maybe I should have taken Cabrera and held my breath for Abreu. But again, considering my aversion to Manny and also to DH's in the first round, who else should I have taken? Ichiro? Better in AVG/SB but a huge dropoff in HR/RBI. Texiera? I picked up Delgado in the 4th round, I don't see that much difference. Bottom line, I don't see anybody other than Cabrera that was taken after Abreu that I would have preferred.
"There is but one game and that game is baseball." – John McGraw
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Abreu is in his thirties and his power significantly dropped from the preceding season. That is the definition of decline.
Why wouldn't the Yankees bat him third? Because he has 15 HR power and is on the YANKEES. Nevertheless, his OBP and speed scream 1st or 2nd and those spots are pretty well taken, so I'm not sure what they'll do with him, but if he starts out poorly, they'll bury him (see also Rodriguez, Alex). In any event, it's hard to believe a hitter weak in power can maintain the third spot in the Yanks' order. And even if he does hit 20-25, he's still a weaker Yankee.
I base my 2007 power projections solely on what he did in the month of September 2006 Um, okay. Good idea.
That's all I really have to say though there is a part of me that won't let me post this without writing in Keith Ginter's September 2004 line. Think of it as a PSA: 16 runs, 8 homeruns, 23 RBIs, 3 stolen bases, and a .308 average. And it makes sense cuz remember when he hit 120, 48, 120, 18, .308 in 2005.
Why wouldn't the Yankees bat him third? Because he has 15 HR power and is on the YANKEES. Nevertheless, his OBP and speed scream 1st or 2nd and those spots are pretty well taken, so I'm not sure what they'll do with him, but if he starts out poorly, they'll bury him (see also Rodriguez, Alex). In any event, it's hard to believe a hitter weak in power can maintain the third spot in the Yanks' order. And even if he does hit 20-25, he's still a weaker Yankee.
I base my 2007 power projections solely on what he did in the month of September 2006 Um, okay. Good idea.
That's all I really have to say though there is a part of me that won't let me post this without writing in Keith Ginter's September 2004 line. Think of it as a PSA: 16 runs, 8 homeruns, 23 RBIs, 3 stolen bases, and a .308 average. And it makes sense cuz remember when he hit 120, 48, 120, 18, .308 in 2005.
Chance favors the prepared mind.
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headhunters
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bef- the way bjoak is going you will be able to get abrue in the 3rd round! sweet. i think he will bat 3rd- the yankees were going full out in september and that is where he batted. matsui rodriquez and giambi seem to be where the decision is- 4-5-6. would not surprise me to see it tried in that order. i think he hits 20 homers. 2 reasons- he is declining and like many guys (helton) that are seeing homer drops- you don't know if they were clean before. mike
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Chest Rockwell
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You know BEF if you are smart and I am betting you are- this mock just tells you to waiting until the 2nd round for Abreu especially if you pick in the 1st half of it makes a lot of sense. You may miss him 20% of the time but you also will not exactly be stuck with Tori Hunter in round 2 if you do not get Abreu.
I think he will have to perform pretty badly to not hit 2nd or 3rd in that lineup. In fact the only way I even seeing him hit 2nd is if Damon or Jeter get hurt. Last year's version of Abreu power wise at least was Helton. I would let someone else endure the 15 homerun season from a top 20 pick.
Gordon- welcome back totally agree with you on Manny and Abreu not being first round picks but IMO Beltran and Santana are not only first round picks but top 12.
I think he will have to perform pretty badly to not hit 2nd or 3rd in that lineup. In fact the only way I even seeing him hit 2nd is if Damon or Jeter get hurt. Last year's version of Abreu power wise at least was Helton. I would let someone else endure the 15 homerun season from a top 20 pick.
Gordon- welcome back totally agree with you on Manny and Abreu not being first round picks but IMO Beltran and Santana are not only first round picks but top 12.
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Strong persuasive logic from all of you, and you've at least got me second guessing myself now; I probably should have taken Cabrera. But other than him, knowing that I didn't want Manny or a DH, who else would you have taken?
"There is but one game and that game is baseball." – John McGraw
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Chest Rockwell
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Originally posted by BEF:
Strong persuasive logic from all of you, and you've at least got me second guessing myself now; I probably should have taken Cabrera. But other than him, knowing that I didn't want Manny or a DH, who else would you have taken? Used to be afraid to take a DH early- took Ortiz with the 15th pick in the winners only last year and never regretted it. This contest is so deep- very few teams will ever have a quality guy rotting on the bench because you have Hafner, Ortiz, Thome type filling up utility. I would take Ortiz over Abreu any day of the week and twice on Don Mathis's birthday.
Strong persuasive logic from all of you, and you've at least got me second guessing myself now; I probably should have taken Cabrera. But other than him, knowing that I didn't want Manny or a DH, who else would you have taken? Used to be afraid to take a DH early- took Ortiz with the 15th pick in the winners only last year and never regretted it. This contest is so deep- very few teams will ever have a quality guy rotting on the bench because you have Hafner, Ortiz, Thome type filling up utility. I would take Ortiz over Abreu any day of the week and twice on Don Mathis's birthday.