Week 2 - Gekko Jeopardy

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Dec 26, 2006 12:43 pm

Each week I will pick the poster with the best response (as judged by Gekko). After ten weeks is up, I (or Greg) am going to put each weekly winner's name on a piece of paper, throw them into a hat, and pick an overall winner AT RANDOM. The overall winner will win free entry into the Web Content Panel Draft in March where the format is winner-take-all for a $500 NFBC credit.

Week 1 Winners = EliGrimmett & duggan

On too Week 2's question...

In 2006 this player hit 15 or less homeruns in the major leagues. In 2007 he will hit over 30 homeruns.

Message Board posters: In your opinion who is this player and why?

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Tue Dec 26, 2006 2:20 pm

Easilee Derrek - Soriano's bombs away mentality becomes infectious.

Q

[ December 26, 2006, 08:24 PM: Message edited by: Quahogs ]

Cooperstown · Post by **Cooperstown** » Tue Dec 26, 2006 4:52 pm

Damon Hollins, because every major leaguer that goes to Japan does.

EliGrimmett · Post by **EliGrimmett** » Tue Dec 26, 2006 7:13 pm

Easy Pick - Gary Sheffield and Derrek Lee. Both were injured last year and should accumulate enough AB in '07 to reach 30 bombs.

Tricky Pick - Carlos Lee - he did only hit 9 HR with Texas. He should eclipse the 30 mark in '07 with ease, but that pick would be cheating.

Funny Pick - Damon Hollins in Japan! Haha, I like that one, Coop.

Under the Radar Pick - Edwin Encarnacion. Hit only 15 HR, but with a shortened season. If healthy and improved he could hit 30 HR.

My Pick - who is Kevin Kouzmanoff?

According to Hit Tracker he hit a homerun with a maximum speed off bat (SOB) of 119.4 mph. I ran a regression analysis of all the MLB players who accumulated over 400 AB and found a correlation coefficient between SOB and HR of .64 and between SOB and HR/F% of .32 - both statistically significant.

Specifically, when I looked at the players who had a SOB of 119.0 mph or more I found that the average number of HR from that group was 32 and that the average HR/F% was 18%.

If you just extrapolated Kouzmanoff's HR total last year over 500 AB he'd have hit 27 HR, which is 5 HR short of what my SOB analysis would estimate.

His Major League HR/F% was well above the SOB estimate of 18%, but that's only because he hit a few too many GB during his brief 16 game ML stint. If he simply had an average F% in '06 he'd have had a HR/F% of 19% which is well within reason given his hitting style.

He's 6' 1", and 210 lbs. so he's big enough to mash HR.

He was shipped to a slightly better HR park in San Diego where they also have much better weather year round and, not to be overlooked, is that he'll be much closer to home where hitting homeruns just feels natural (laying it on pretty think aren't I?)

In the '06 AFL he hit .382 which doesn't mean much, but it's better than if he hit .250.

Kevin Kouzmanoff is slated to be San Diego's starting 3B so he should accumulate at least 500 AB. He's entering his prime and I'm predicting a .273 BA with 32 HR over 500 AB.

Oh, and I can't forget my favorite part - Kevin Kouzmanoff...hm...KK...King Kong? Yep, King Kong in 2007! Actually, my favorite thing is that Shandler has him projected to hit 5 HR! I like that a lot! Just ignore what I said above and let me draft him in the 30th round in March.

BTW, I'm super excited that I won week 1 of Gekko Jeopardy! Hopefully I can dazzle everyone with some off the wall crazy BS and win another week or two.

As you can see, I take my Jeopardy seriously! Haha.

[ December 27, 2006, 01:20 AM: Message edited by: EliGrimmett ]

Nevadaman · Post by **Nevadaman** » Tue Dec 26, 2006 7:51 pm

Eli, I guess you don't subscribe to Shandler's site, as those book stats are now updated. He has raised Kouzmanoff to 19HR in 501AB. Another interesting post from you in your effort to repeat!

EliGrimmett · Post by **EliGrimmett** » Tue Dec 26, 2006 8:23 pm

Aha! I knew something was amiss. Nice to see Shandler joining me in my quest for Kouzmanoff, MVP! Haha.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Wed Dec 27, 2006 5:03 am

ILD give you two , that your looking for , not the obvious like SHEFFIELD and LEE. First i think Ryan Garko with 500 at bats is a easy 20 homer's, he hit 7 last year and now has gotten his feet wet.Then my big pick who i had in my lineup the last week of the ULTIMATE, Ryan Shealy.From Shandler[who seems to have a lot of repect on these boards.] 20 to 25 homers looks like a no brainer , with an upside of 30.

NOW somebody top that.

EliGrimmett · Post by **EliGrimmett** » Wed Dec 27, 2006 6:23 am

Haha, those were the other two players I was considering as my Jeopardy responses, but I was trying to shy away from someone Shandler might project highly (unfortunately I don't subscribe to his website so I missed the KK update.)

I POTENTIALLY have Garko with 27 and Shealy with 26. Nice picks eddiejag.

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Wed Dec 27, 2006 7:08 am

Ryan Shealy

Edwin Encarnacion

Both are very nice picks...

Derek Lee is a no-brainer...Sheffield, I would have to disagree with...high 20's but I don't see him hitting 30 this year.

Putting aside the injured players in '06 returning to form, and looking for a potential 3oth round flyer, I'd have to take a look at someone with potential and opportunity.

Josh Hamilton was taken in rule 5 draft, so he must stay on the Reds major league roster all season or be returned to D Rays. With Griffey and Freel in your OF, injury opens an opportunity.

Given a chance to play in a ballpark that balls fly out of, Hamilton sounds crazy at first, but look at others players who were given up on and then went to Cincinnati and made many fantasy owners happy...Brandon Phillips, David Ross, Felipe Lopez...

Hamilton will turn 26 during the season and the Reds will give him a chance...Does he hit 30 HR? More than likely not, so this response probably does not belong on this thread (sorry, Gekko

) but I wanted to take a look at someone a lot less obvious...I don't have Shandler's info, which probably projects 3-5 at most, but I would be interested in what he says if someone can post...thank you!

Now go ahead and rip it apart!

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Wed Dec 27, 2006 7:28 am

HEY POPPY TOOTH, Shandler has no mention of josh hamilton in the forecaster, i remember the hype on him years ago with the DEVIL RAYS.I actually fell for him, and wasted 3 bucks.

Encarnarcion is a 20 to 25 hr guy in my opinion.

SHANDLER has him for 20 in just over 500 at bats.

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Wed Dec 27, 2006 7:42 am

Eddie -

Thanks for the update. I actually just ordered the forecaster online. Do you have a web subscription? I was going to sign up, but not sure if it's worth it. Last year, I bought the Forecaster from a book store near work at lunch and it was pretty good. I didn't actually go back and compare to see final stats and compare to projections, remember being interested in a lot of his ideas.

I like Encarnacion a lot this year...I think he may get to 32-33 in HR.

The Hamilton pick is basically a joke...just a very long shot. Like you said, picking D. Lee is easy.

Congrats on great football season also! (Don't know if I'll play football next year...I was awful...if I do one thing is for sure...NO Lamont Jordan) Take care. Best of luck to you!

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Dec 27, 2006 8:19 am

A lot like the comeback player award. It often goes to an injury case, but of course a great player who didn't play the year before will make a comeback. The intent of the question seems to be to find a guy who never hit 30 or at least seems unlikely to.

Silly if Eli doesn't win after that response. Coop gets most creative answer award.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Dec 27, 2006 8:23 am

As a guy famous for not being a Shandler yes man, I thought this year's annual was pretty good--better than last year. There were some good articles and resources in it and it kept on irritating me that some of his favorites coincided with mine since it will bring up their value among all the Shandler cronies in the NFBC.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Wed Dec 27, 2006 8:50 am

Jorge Cantu

Cantu hit 286 with 28 HRs in 2005, his first full season in the majors, over 598 at bats. In 2006, a broken bone in his foot lingered well into the season, probably resulting is some lost confidence as the injury inhibited his strength and conditioning. Result? A 249 avg and just 14 HRs.

Breaking down his '06 season - Cantu homered once in his first 13 ABs of 2006, then he broke his foot. He tried to play through the initially mis-diagnosed injury for most of April, but had 0 HRs in 41 ABs after that first week. He then went on the DL and missed 6-7 weeks. When he returned in June, he hit over 290 but had just 2 HRs over 87 ABs in his first 3 weeks back. He then stepped up the power, hitting 6 HR in 98 ABs from Jun-30 thru July, but probably did so by overswinging as his BA plummeted to 204 over that period. Thru mid-August, with his confidence shot, his power disappeared again AND his BA remained down around 200. He then had a breakout game in late August which kicked off a solid finish in which he seemed to find his stroke again, hitting 287 with 5 HRs in 108 ABs.

In 2005, his AB/HR rate was 21.4.

In 2006, his AB/HR rate was 36.5 from the time he injured his foot thru mid-August. Excluding the period identified as his injury/confidence "slump", his AB/HR rate was 20.2.

Cantu turns 25 in January, so he is in his prime for continued power development. Excluding the slump, his HR rate improved about 5% last season. Assuming an additional 5% improvement this season, his HR rate would improve to one HR per 19.2 AB.

Cantu is likely to bat in the 4 slot again. Last season, the 4 slot for TB had 689 plate appearances. Assuming an equal number of HBP/Sac's from the 4 hole this season and Cantu's 5% walk rate, he would see 639 AB over 162 games. Reducing his playing time to 150 games would yield 592 AB. At his projected HR rate, he should hit 31 HRs in 2007.

Happy New Year Gekko ... Cantu was drafted in the 15th round of the pre-mag draft, not bad for a second baseman who will bat around 285 with 31 HRs!

[ December 27, 2006, 02:56 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Wed Dec 27, 2006 9:32 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Jorge Cantu

Well duh ! :rolleyes:

just kidding! Nice analysis. The big question is what's your patented $ amt for him ???

Q

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Wed Dec 27, 2006 9:44 am

Q,

Using my Jeapordy-special projections, that would put him right around $19 for the NFBC.

[ December 27, 2006, 03:45 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Wed Dec 27, 2006 9:51 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Q,

Using my Jeapordy-special projections, that would put him right around $19 for the NFBC. $19 for just AL I assume? I have to hand it to you and CC Despo, you guys got a pretty damn good handle on your values and their applications !

Q

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Wed Dec 27, 2006 10:03 am

Originally posted by Quahogs:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Q,

Using my Jeapordy-special projections, that would put him right around $19 for the NFBC. $19 for just AL I assume? I have to hand it to you and CC Despo, you guys got a pretty damn good handle on your values and their applications !

Q [/QUOTE]That would be mixed lge, AL only adds about 8 bucks.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Wed Dec 27, 2006 10:19 am

CANTU went 15th round in the mag draft, BUT 12th round in the draft champions league.CANTU did me in last year, and i dont forget.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 7:39 am

Cooperstown · Post by **Cooperstown** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 1:59 pm

I'd like to change my answer, errr question, and be serious.

I'm assuming the answer GG meant is, "the player that has the best chance to hit 30+ HR's, IN THE MAJORS, in 2007 and that hit less than 16 HR's in the majors in 2006 while playing a full season.

That eliminates players like KK and DLee.

The guy I'm thinking of was probably slated to hit 30+ last year on most everyone's projections and really disappointed.

Who is Jason Lane?

I watched Lane a lot last year from a nice Minute Maid vantage point and he hit a lot of deep fly balls that just missed going out. He also swung at a lot of first pitches. Later, he tried taking pitches and it seemed like he was always behind in the count, and his confidence went south.

So the 2 questons are, is Lane going to be ready at the plate in 2007 and will he get the playing time. Right now he's the best defensive OF Houston has and I think he'll end up in CF. As to whether he'll be ready.... I say yes.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 2:02 pm

Originally posted by Coop:

I'd like to change my answer, errr question, and be serious.

I'm assuming the answer GG meant is, "the player that has the best chance to hit 30+ HR's, IN THE MAJORS, in 2007 and that hit less than 16 HR's in the majors in 2006 while playing a full season.

That eliminates players like KK and DLee.

The guy I'm thinking of was probably slated to hit 30+ last year on most everyone's projections and really disappointed.

Who is Jason Lane?

I watched Lane a lot last year from a nice Minute Maid vantage point and he hit a lot of deep fly balls that just missed going out. He also swung at a lot of first pitches. Later, he tried taking pitches and it seemed like he was always behind in the count, and his confidence went south.

So the 2 questons are, is Lane going to be ready at the plate in 2007 and will he get the playing time. Right now he's the best defensive OF Houston has and I think he'll end up in CF. As to whether he'll be ready.... I say yes. Rumor has it, he was over weight last year. Did he look that way to you? I heard he has lost 15 lbs. in the off-season already.

Cooperstown · Post by **Cooperstown** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 2:18 pm

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by Coop:

I'd like to change my answer, errr question, and be serious.

I'm assuming the answer GG meant is, "the player that has the best chance to hit 30+ HR's, IN THE MAJORS, in 2007 and that hit less than 16 HR's in the majors in 2006 while playing a full season.

That eliminates players like KK and DLee.

The guy I'm thinking of was probably slated to hit 30+ last year on most everyone's projections and really disappointed.

Who is Jason Lane?

I watched Lane a lot last year from a nice Minute Maid vantage point and he hit a lot of deep fly balls that just missed going out. He also swung at a lot of first pitches. Later, he tried taking pitches and it seemed like he was always behind in the count, and his confidence went south.

So the 2 questons are, is Lane going to be ready at the plate in 2007 and will he get the playing time. Right now he's the best defensive OF Houston has and I think he'll end up in CF. As to whether he'll be ready.... I say yes. Rumor has it, he was over weight last year. Did he look that way to you? I heard he has lost 15 lbs. in the off-season already. [/QUOTE]No, he really didn't look overweight to me at all, just confused. But from my vantage point, those svelte umpires are always in the way, so...

EliGrimmett · Post by **EliGrimmett** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 5:47 pm

Coop said:

"I'm assuming the answer GG meant is, "the player that has the best chance to hit 30+ HR's, IN THE MAJORS, in 2007 and that hit less than 16 HR's in the majors in 2006 while playing a full season.

That eliminates players like KK and DLee."

I once read a few quotes about "assuming"...

“Pride is increased by ignorance; those assume the most who know the least.”

--John Gay

“Assumption is the mother of the screw-up.”

--Angelo Donghia

What I'm basically saying is this - "assuming" is what I would do as well if it meant having me win a round of Gekko Jeopardy by having another's post disqualified. Haha.

All in good jest - don't freak out, just having a little fun.

I also noticed that you said this almost immediately after your other statement:

"Who is Jason Lane?"

Uh...so...what's your definition of a full season? Because the Jason Lane I remember doesn't quite qualify. Interesting contradiction in your approach to winning! I like it, just like a politician!

All kidding aside, I think your Jason Lane pick isn't half bad. He has the power to pull off 30 in the little league field, but if his bat can't find the ball he won't be in the bigs long enough to see it happen. He may not even make it outta spring training with Scott breathing down his neck. In Shandler's book he's at 220 AB, DL has him with 214 AB - haven't seen any other projections for him yet. 200 AB seems about right. I've got him (if he gets 500 AB - BIG IF) right around 30 bombs with a BA in the .250 range.

Cooperstown · Post by **Cooperstown** » Fri Dec 29, 2006 5:11 am

Eli,

Where do you find all those quotes at?

Anyway, just remember you heard it here first. Lane has a decent enough Spring to make the team and gets his confidence built as he crushes some early HR's in April. His playing time increases as he plays CF, (Scott is in RF). Burke becomes the 4th OF and frequent 2B giving Biggio much rest. Lane gets 500 AB's with 30+ HR's.

Everyone needs to move him up a few rounds on their pre-draft rankings.