NFBC Message Boards

Each week I will pick the poster with the best response (as judged by Gekko) to my question. After ten weeks is up, I (or Greg) am going to put each weekly winner's name on a piece of paper, throw them into a hat, and pick an overall winner AT RANDOM. The overall winner will win free entry into the Web Content Panel Draft in March where the format is winner-take-all for a $500 NFBC credit.



Week 1

Question = This player has the best chance to be the 2007 NFBC version of fantasy football’s LaDainian Tomlinson. In other words, this player has the best chance at dominating all other fantasy players and carrying the most NFBC teams into “money” finishes.

Winners = EliGrimmett (Matt Holliday) & duggan (Alfonso Soriano)



Week 2

Question = In 2006 this player hit 15 or less homeruns in the major leagues. In 2007 he hit over 30 homeruns.

Winner = EliGrimmett (Kevin Kouzmanoff)



Week 3

Question = This pitcher never had 20 wins in a season until 2007.

Winners = headhunters (Ervin Santana) & poopy tooth (Jason Schmidt)



Week 4

Question = This player led the Major Leagues in RBI's in 2007.

Winners = poopy tooth and KJ Duke (David Ortiz)



Week 5

Question = This pitcher racked up the most saves for any pitcher who wasn't their team's closer on Opening Day 2007.

Winner = King of Queens (Akinori Otsuka)



Week 6

Question = This team won the 2007 World Series.

Winner = MGBMARTY (Detriot Tigers)



The Week 7 question is a viewer's choice question...This 2007 rookie made the biggest impact in the NFBC.



Message Board Posters...Which 2007 rookie made the biggest impact in the NFBC and why? and why?

Who is Alex Gordon?



The Royals are trying to find an inexpensive way to field a team and what better way than to put any high profile, very young players out on the field. It just so happens that Mr. Gordon is a legitimate talent. He will be at least a 20/20 guy in his rookie year while holding down the hot corner for the Royals. Alex will find his way into the top half of the lineup by all star break and will have respectable numbers across the board.



Thanks,

Mudster

Who is Delmon Young?



Young, 21, who will be taken in the top 75 in every NFBC league. Teams are looking for Vladimir Guerrero like numbers, a player who he should someday match talent-wise. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2003 draft, will be a frontrunner for the 2007 Rookie of the Year Award, and when he doesn’t live up to the hype (Which is a given because I have him targeted) he will have the biggest impact on the NFBC.

Originally posted by Sheep:

and when he doesn't live up to the hype (Which is a given because I have him targeted) he will have the biggest impact on the NFBC. Great twist on the response here. I was going to respond with Daisuke -- who technically is a rookie -- but I'm not going to bother trying to top this one.

Originally posted by King of Queens:

quote:Originally posted by Sheep:

and when he doesn't live up to the hype (Which is a given because I have him targeted) he will have the biggest impact on the NFBC. Great twist on the response here. I was going to respond with Daisuke -- who technically is a rookie -- but I'm not going to bother trying to top this one. [/QUOTE]You two took my answers, was going to say it was a tie between the above two. Both will be taking way higher than they should. Delmon definitely has some talent, but 5th or 6th round return, no way...and I'm a D-Rays fan. Yes, one of the 30.

Part I. Who is not Delmon Young or Daisuke Matsuzaka?



These two are most likely to generate the most valuable fantasy stats among rookies, however because they are very likely to only live up to high expectations, or worse, it is unlikely EITHER will have the biggest impact in the NFBC contest.



Rather, a dark horse, a guy that is taken in the final rounds or picked up off the waiver wire is likely to have the biggest impact. That player will provide substantial alpha - enough to turn a top five team into a winning team. This player is likely to be one who generates more fantasy value than "real" value, since a top all-around talent generally take time to develop, and/or will be drafted highly. Accordingly, this year's biggest difference maker will do so in the one of the scarcity categories - he'll be either a big-time basestealer or a suprise closer.



Part II. Who is Michael Bourn or Craig Hansen?



Bourn got in a few games in Sep for PHL and did nothing, but maybe enough of a taste to get over some nerves for next season. But's he's real fast. He stole 45 of 50 across AA/AAA. Also, the Phils will have a high-powered offense, so a speedy tablesetter will score. Batting either second or seventh to start the year will be CF Aaron Rowand. Rowand missed half of last season after trying to run thru a wall. He said he'd do it again with the game on the line. I believe him. He will do it again, and Bourn will get his shot, stealing 25 in half a season after coming off the NFBC waiver wire in July.



Craig Hansen has closer stuff on a team that lacks a closer but will win a lot of games. Pineiro will be tried but fail after a few weeks. A few others will be mixed in for the next few weeks as a "closer by search committee" goes on for a couple more weeks. Hansen will come in for one save opp and look great. Then another, then reel off a string of 7-8 straight and the job will be his. Someone will grab in the 30th round and ride him to 30+ saves.

Who is Taylor Tankersley?

Young and Mats are too obvious

League hit 228 against him last year

46 Ks in 41 Ip

1.71 Era on the road

Pitches in pitcher friendly park

Marlins starting rotation though young could rank as one of the top 3 staffs in NL

Marlins year in and year out over achieve

Borowski had 36 saves for them last year

If SPs Willis Olsen Sanchez Johnson with Noalasco as #5 are healthy and and improve on their numbers of last year and Tank learns that he does pitch in a pitcher friendly park which should reduce his home ERA from 4.05 to 3.45 to go with his 1.71 ERA on the road. Prediction of:

39 saves 3.25 ERA 88Ks in 78 IP WHP 1.28





Marty

Please see below



[ January 31, 2007, 10:11 AM: Message edited by: King of Queens ]

Originally posted by MGBMARTY:

Who is Taylor Tankersley?Tankersley does not meet the qualifications for rookie status. Though he did pitch less than 50 innings in 2006, he spent more than 45 days on the Marlins' active roster.



Thus, he cannot be considered a rookie.



[ January 31, 2007, 10:10 AM: Message edited by: King of Queens ]

My bad but still like my answer lol



Marty

2007 ROY Alex Gordon



No pressure playing in KC will go .290-22-80-12 playing in front of 13,000 screaming fans p/night

Who is Chris Young (AZ)?



Chris Young is a poor man's (or a smart man's) version of Delmon Young. He has the potential to go 20/30 in 2007 and has shown improving BP/plate discipline numbers in the past 3 years as he's risen from A to AAA. He will open the season in CF and possibly leading off in a vastly improved Arizona lineup. While he'll be a late round choice, he'll be on more winning teams in 2007 than Delmon Young.

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Part I. Who is not Delmon Young or Daisuke Matsuzaka?



These two are most likely to generate the most valuable fantasy stats among rookies, however because they are very likely to only live up to high expectations, or worse, it is unlikely EITHER will have the biggest impact in the NFBC contest.



Rather, a dark horse, a guy that is taken in the final rounds or picked up off the waiver wire is likely to have the biggest impact. That player will provide substantial alpha - enough to turn a top five team into a winning team. This player is likely to be one who generates more fantasy value than "real" value, since a top all-around talent generally take time to develop, and/or will be drafted highly. Accordingly, this year's biggest difference maker will do so in the one of the scarcity categories - he'll be either a big-time basestealer or a suprise closer.



Part II. Who is Michael Bourn or Craig Hansen?



Bourn got in a few games in Sep for PHL and did nothing, but maybe enough of a taste to get over some nerves for next season. But's he's real fast. He stole 45 of 50 across AA/AAA. Also, the Phils will have a high-powered offense, so a speedy tablesetter will score. Batting either second or seventh to start the year will be CF Aaron Rowand. Rowand missed half of last season after trying to run thru a wall. He said he'd do it again with the game on the line. I believe him. He will do it again, and Bourn will get his shot, stealing 25 in half a season after coming off the NFBC waiver wire in July.



Craig Hansen has closer stuff on a team that lacks a closer but will win a lot of games. Pineiro will be tried but fail after a few weeks. A few others will be mixed in for the next few weeks as a "closer by search committee" goes on for a couple more weeks. Hansen will come in for one save opp and look great. Then another, then reel off a string of 7-8 straight and the job will be his. Someone will grab in the 30th round and ride him to 30+ saves. KJ, are you into stocks as well? I noticed the Alpha reference. Anyway, I will be watching Bourn and Hansen. I will be very impressed if either turn out to match your prediction!



Spy

Originally posted by Spyhunter:

KJ, are you into stocks as well? I noticed the Alpha reference. Anyway, I will be watching Bourn and Hansen. I will be very impressed if either turn out to match your prediction!



Spy Spy, I'll be impressed too! ... admittedly, longshots.



Stocks? yep, that's what I do ... I own some Feb call options on ISRG - I think tomorrow is gonna be a good day for me

awesome pick! Your Calls are going to HUGE!!! I work at TD Ameritrade - when I left Deloitte, I almost managed to finagle a way into a hedge fund, sad I didn't. My best stock pick this year has been SLP and my best options play APCC



After Hours: 114.20 14.88 (14.98%) as of 7:59pm ET on 02/01/07



Last Trade: 99.32

Trade Time: 4:00PM ET

Change: 0.91 (0.92%)

Prev Close: 98.41

Open: 99.14

Bid: 114.03 x 300

Ask: N/A

1y Target Est: 139.25



Day's Range: 98.38 - 99.86

52wk Range: 85.63 - 137.94

Volume: 2,244,134

Avg Vol (3m): 889,939

Market Cap: 3.67B

P/E (ttm): 38.50

EPS (ttm): 2.58

Div & Yield: N/A (N/A)

Originally posted by Spyhunter:

awesome pick! Your Calls are going to HUGE!!! I work at TD Ameritrade - when I left Deloitte, I almost managed to finagle a way into a hedge fund, sad I didn't. My best stock pick this year has been SLP and my best options play APCC



After Hours: 114.20 14.88 (14.98%) as of 7:59pm ET on 02/01/07



Last Trade: 99.32

Trade Time: 4:00PM ET

Change: 0.91 (0.92%)

Prev Close: 98.41

Open: 99.14

Bid: 114.03 x 300

Ask: N/A

1y Target Est: 139.25



Day's Range: 98.38 - 99.86

52wk Range: 85.63 - 137.94

Volume: 2,244,134

Avg Vol (3m): 889,939

Market Cap: 3.67B

P/E (ttm): 38.50

EPS (ttm): 2.58

Div & Yield: N/A (N/A) Paid $14 for the $85 calls, if after-hours price holds they should be near $31 on the open ... haven't decided if I'll sell or not, got a couple weeks 'til expiration and the conference call went very well ...



What do you for AMTD Spy?

Originally posted by Spyhunter:

awesome pick! Your Calls are going to HUGE!!! I work at TD Ameritrade - when I left Deloitte, I almost managed to finagle a way into a hedge fund, sad I didn't. My best stock pick this year has been SLP and my best options play APCC



After Hours: 114.20 14.88 (14.98%) as of 7:59pm ET on 02/01/07



Last Trade: 99.32

Trade Time: 4:00PM ET

Change: 0.91 (0.92%)

Prev Close: 98.41

Open: 99.14

Bid: 114.03 x 300

Ask: N/A

1y Target Est: 139.25



Day's Range: 98.38 - 99.86

52wk Range: 85.63 - 137.94

Volume: 2,244,134

Avg Vol (3m): 889,939

Market Cap: 3.67B

P/E (ttm): 38.50

EPS (ttm): 2.58

Div & Yield: N/A (N/A) Yeah sure, but what was its BABIP?

Hi KJ,

I was in mgt. consulting for financial services for Deloitte for years, and this last year went over to AMTD to do corporate strategic development (i.e. strategy and M&A). If you go read our last earnings call stuff, I did the iRebal and the QuoteTracker acquisitions...



What are you up to? Are you professionally in stocks?



P.S. Remember bulls and bears make money, pigs get slaughtered . I would sell 1/2 or 2/3rds of the options and take the $ to the bank, but then you still have some upside if things improve. If you only have a couple of weeks of time decay left, I would bank it now!



[ February 02, 2007, 08:31 AM: Message edited by: Spyhunter ]

Originally posted by Spyhunter:

Hi KJ,

I was in mgt. consulting for financial services for Deloitte for years, and this last year went over to AMTD to do corporate strategic development (i.e. strategy and M&A). If you go read our last earnings call stuff, I did the iRebal and the QuoteTracker acquisitions...



What are you up to? Are you professionally in stocks?



Interesting - we should talk some time, we own etrade in our portfolios, have looked at AMTD but like ETFC's more comprehensive bus., sounds maybe you're heading in that direction? I'm head of rsrch for a smllcap/midcap value mgr in SD.



Originally posted by Spyhunter:





P.S. Remember bulls and bears make money, pigs get slaughtered . I would sell 1/2 or 2/3rds of the options and take the $ to the bank, but then you still have some upside if things improve. If you only have a couple of weeks of time decay left, I would bank it now! lol, I did in fact close out 2/3rds

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Yeah sure, but what was its BABIP? dough - I'd say BABIP right around 30.5%, no luck here, dependable ace with upside!



now on deck ... DRIV ... could recent options investigation and a slower than normal H107 outlook be fully priced in? stock prob $20 higher ex/ those factors ... translation for you Dough ... DRIV's coming off a tough season with a BABIP of 35% and a strand rate of 65% - low ADP, primed for a comeback or hiding an injury?



[ February 02, 2007, 10:23 AM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Yeah sure, but what was its BABIP? dough - I'd say BABIP right around 30.5%, no luck here, dependable ace with upside!



now on deck ... DRIV ... could recent options investigation and a slower than normal H107 outlook be fully priced in? stock prob $20 higher ex/ those factors ... translation for you Dough ... DRIV's coming off a tough season with a BABIP of 35% and a strand rate of 65% - low ADP, primed for a comeback or hiding an injury? [/QUOTE]Thanks for clearing that up for me.

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Yeah sure, but what was its BABIP? dough - I'd say BABIP right around 30.5%, no luck here, dependable ace with upside!



now on deck ... DRIV ... could recent options investigation and a slower than normal H107 outlook be fully priced in? stock prob $20 higher ex/ those factors ... translation for you Dough ... DRIV's coming off a tough season with a BABIP of 35% and a strand rate of 65% - low ADP, primed for a comeback or hiding an injury? [/QUOTE]I love stocks 'with issues'. I have to be careful what I post on public BBS since I work for AMTD though (even though I am not a broker).

Originally posted by Spyhunter:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Yeah sure, but what was its BABIP? dough - I'd say BABIP right around 30.5%, no luck here, dependable ace with upside!



now on deck ... DRIV ... could recent options investigation and a slower than normal H107 outlook be fully priced in? stock prob $20 higher ex/ those factors ... translation for you Dough ... DRIV's coming off a tough season with a BABIP of 35% and a strand rate of 65% - low ADP, primed for a comeback or hiding an injury? [/QUOTE]I love stocks 'with issues'. I have to be careful what I post on public BBS since I work for AMTD though (even though I am not a broker). [/QUOTE]Have you all ever wondered what that option called send private message is?

what fun is that Chest? better to hijack gekko's thread

So, benefits of this topic: a) we keep Gekko from getting more free info and b), we got an interesting stock pick to go do our due diligence on. I bet that KJ made a Heck of a lot more $$$ on his ISRG calls than any ultimate league.