Satellite Auction Value Picks

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Tue Mar 06, 2007 8:40 am

So I was a bit bored at work and decided to see who made the best value picks. Since this is my list, my definition of Value is players that pretty obviously will provide higher performance than their $ cost. If you don't see a name, that is because I either missed it or I felt that the price paid was Appropriate for the expected performance adjusted by risk, or appropriate given the amount spent on similar players. Here is my list of the best and worst from last night:

Pos Name Team Value?

OF Vernon Wells Blue Jays (TOR) Good

P Jeremy Bonderman Tigers (DET) Good

OF Ken Griffey Jr. Reds (CIN) Good

P Bronson Arroyo Reds (CIN) Good

P Francisco Rodriguez Angels (ANA) Poor

SS Hanley Ramirez Marlins (FLA) Good

MI Julio Lugo Red Sox (BOS) Good

OF Hideki Matsui Yankees (NYY) Good

P Jose Valverde Diamondbacks (ARI) Poor

SS Derek Jeter Yankees (NYY) Good

MI Jorge Cantu Devil Rays (TAM) Poor

OF J.D. Drew Red Sox (BOS) Good

P Roger Clemens Free Agent (FA) Great

P John Lackey Angels (ANA) Good

CI Mark Teahen Royals (KCR) Poor

P Andy Pettitte Yankees (NYY) Good

P Josh Beckett Red Sox (BOS) Good

2B Marcus Giles Padres (SDP) Good

OF Shane Victorino Phillies (PHI) Good

P Dave Bush Brewers (MIL) Good

P Brett Myers Phillies (PHI) Good

P Chris Carpenter Cardinals (STL) Great

1B Prince Fielder Brewers (MIL) Good

3B Adrian Beltre Mariners (SEA) Good

SS Jimmy Rollins Phillies (PHI) Poor

OF Scott Podsednik White Sox (CHW) Good

P Mark Buehrle White Sox (CHW) Great

Spyhhunter OF Curtis Granderson Tigers (DET) Good

Spyhunter OF Matt Holliday Rockies (COL) Poor

Spyhunter P Chien-Ming Wang Yankees (NYY) Good

Spyhunter P Chris Ray Orioles (BAL) Good

Spyhunter R Joe Blanton Athletics (OAK) Good

2B Tadahito Iguchi White Sox (CHW) Good

MI Dan Uggla Marlins (FLA) Great

P Joe Nathan Twins (MIN) Poor

1B Ryan Howard Phillies (PHI) Good

3B David Wright Mets (NYM) Great

P Randy Johnson Diamondbacks (ARI) Good

P Mariano Rivera Yankees (NYY) Good

1B Todd Helton Rockies (COL) Good

OF Grady Sizemore Indians (CLE) Good

U Frank Thomas Blue Jays (TOR) Good

P Dan Haren Athletics (OAK) Good

C Victor Martinez Indians (CLE) Poor

OF Chone Figgins Angels (ANA) Good

U Jason Giambi Yankees (NYY) Good

1B Albert Pujols Cardinals (STL) Poor

SS Rafael Furcal Dodgers (LAD) Poor

U David Ortiz Red Sox (BOS) Good

P Curt Schilling Red Sox (BOS) Good

1B Carlos Delgado Mets (NYM) Good

2B Brandon Phillips Reds (CIN) Great

3B Aramis Ramirez Cubs (CHC) Good

OF Ichiro Suzuki Mariners (SEA) Poor

[ March 06, 2007, 02:42 PM: Message edited by: Spyhunter ]

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Mar 06, 2007 8:53 am

Originally posted by Spyhunter:

So I was a bit bored at work you better go get your A-game for Friday night. I need to bid on the players you really like. thanks.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Mar 06, 2007 8:55 am

Looks like I'm 4-1 on the spy-o-meter. For the guys you listed on my team, I'd agree with your assessment - wasn't happy getting bid up on the one poor value after better guys went cheaper.

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Tue Mar 06, 2007 9:35 am

Kind of the same thing happened to me. I was happy many of the guys I wanted weren't going early. Thought I could get a discount, but didn't. When they finally came up they went higher then I expected not lower. Some I bid way up for others I let go. Can't believe Teahan went for $21. I like him, but that's kind of nuts. Course I'm one of the guys resposible for bidding him up that high then didn't get him, which I guess was good, considering the price. I agree with Spy's and KJ's assesment. I spent way too much on rp's especially the money spent on KROD. Lesson learned for next time I hope. I think it will benifit me more in the long run having been in with a tough group like you guys because you learn more this way. Price for this education was $250. Cheap by educational standards.

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Tue Mar 06, 2007 10:56 am

I found the draft very different and much harder than my other 2 auctions I have done with NFBC. Last year, there were multiple players going for over 40$, in this satellite, only one. That is why I ended up with so many expensive guys, I wasn't willing to let Soriano go for $38 or less.

I also expected a large drop off in spending, when in actuality the spending stayed constant (except for a few notable exceptions). I figured if I waited a bit during the middle of the draft, I would be able to get some real bargains, and while there were a few (granderson, maybe gomes), they were few and far between. I was really surprised how the middle level Starting Pitching held value. I was really pissed to have to spend $8 or $9 DEEP into the draft to get a chancy player like Willis for example

It will be fascinating to see what happens next week. I for one am glad I am not facing the same group.

Spy

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Mar 06, 2007 11:17 am

Originally posted by Spyhunter:

It will be fascinating to see what happens next week. I for one am glad I am not facing the same group.

Spy spy - you still have time to go back to the drawingboard. Don't walk in unprepared next week. See you soon

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Tue Mar 06, 2007 11:23 am

Bring your A+ game Gekko, I have already had a tough education process and will be bringing my best game.

When I take the pick you had been dreaming of, please dont cry ok?

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Mar 06, 2007 12:03 pm

Originally posted by Spyhunter:

Bring your A+ game Gekko, I have already had a tough education process and will be bringing my best game.

When I take the pick you had been dreaming of, please dont cry ok? A+ game? I don't even have auction prices yet. I'm thinking about walking in without any. BUT, I tried that same strategy in football this year and got my ass kicked. Advice?

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Mar 06, 2007 12:07 pm

Originally posted by Spyhunter:

Bring your A+ game Gekko, I have already had a tough education process and will be bringing my best game.

Seeing how you are bringing your best game, if I happen to beat you, would you consider me

1) Lucky

2) A Fantasy God

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Tue Mar 06, 2007 1:58 pm

If you win, it depends on how you beat me, and by how much. Anyway, Want Advice?

I would get some prices in your head, hard to understand relative value if you don't know the values to expect.

Spy

RotoSpin.com · Post by **RotoSpin.com** » Wed Mar 07, 2007 1:10 am

I'll take a 4-1 as well with one 'great'. I'd agree with the ratings. Hopefully the 'poor' bounces back this year

started off real well with the first dozen or so buys and then got stage fright in the middle and wasn't able to pull the trigger on any players for what seemed like 2 hours

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Wed Mar 07, 2007 3:46 am

Originally posted by Spyhunter:

I found the draft very different and much harder than my other 2 auctions I have done with NFBC. Last year, there were multiple players going for over 40$, in this satellite, only one. That is why I ended up with so many expensive guys, I wasn't willing to let Soriano go for $38 or less.

I also expected a large drop off in spending, when in actuality the spending stayed constant (except for a few notable exceptions). I figured if I waited a bit during the middle of the draft, I would be able to get some real bargains, and while there were a few (granderson, maybe gomes), they were few and far between. I was really surprised how the middle level Starting Pitching held value. I was really pissed to have to spend $8 or $9 DEEP into the draft to get a chancy player like Willis for example

It will be fascinating to see what happens next week. I for one am glad I am not facing the same group.

Spy Spy that's exactly what I expected and when it didn't go that way it hurt me bad. Had to pay more than I thought for guys put out there late. People didn't go crazy on the top guys. I got caught up bidding on closers cause they didn't go for as much as some auctions, then I got them and spent too much on them in relation to the rest of my teams needs. I need to be in an auction with lesser players than you guys I think. More practice and wait till next year.

Nutty Scrats · Post by **Nutty Scrats** » Thu Mar 08, 2007 1:21 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Spyhunter:

Bring your A+ game Gekko, I have already had a tough education process and will be bringing my best game.

When I take the pick you had been dreaming of, please dont cry ok? A+ game? I don't even have auction prices yet. I'm thinking about walking in without any. BUT, I tried that same strategy in football this year and got my ass kicked. Advice? [/QUOTE]Auction prices? What are those? I guess I got some work to do before next week!