Gekko - Fireside Chat_-_OUTFIELD

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Dec 30, 2007 12:48 pm

at last...it's time to get the baseball content pumping. Over the next few weeks, I'm going to give you a little taste of my rankings...position by position and how they stack up against some industry experts.

First up, OUTFIELDERS...

STUD

Holliday, Matt - Was an absolute BEAST down the stretch with 23 homeruns over the last three months!!! OPS has gone up 4 years in a row. Playing in ColorAdo really limits his downside. He is the safest pick among OF and has even more upside, 40+ hr's & 150 rbi's.

Gekko's rank = #1 OF

Shawn Childs rank = #1 OF

Avg of 3 mb mock drafts rank = #1 OF

Baseball Forecaster rank = #1 OF

Sleeper

Ordonez,Magglio - The addition of M.Cabrera solidifies the Tigers lineup as one of the best in baseball. If people can remember, Ordonez was a STUD in 2001/2002/2003 before going down with some knee troubles in 2004/2005. Now FULLY healthy for TWO years, it's time to get back to being a stud! Not the typical sleeper, but he looks undervalued (maybe a lot) by the industry experts.

Gekko's rank = #6 OF

Shawn Childs rank = #10 OF

Avg of 3 mb mock drafts rank = #16 OF

Baseball Forecaster rank = not in their top 20 OF

Disappointment

Abreu, Bobby - Player who gets a lot of value with his legs. At 34 years old, i wouldn't be surprised to see his SB go under 20, maybe even 15 or so. His Hr's have really gone downhill the last two years. Add in a new manager to the NY limelight and there's too many ? marks for me.

Gekko's rank = not in my top 20 OF

Baseball Forecaster rank = #10 OF

Shawn Childs rank = #11 OF

Avg of 3 mb mock drafts rank = #15 OF

what do you guys think!!! AGREE/DISAGREE WITH gg? fire away.

[ December 30, 2007, 06:56 PM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Sun Dec 30, 2007 1:05 pm

GG, I think you are a little too high on Mags, but otherwise a very good effort.

We haven't released projections yet (Jan 15th), but Todd and I did an analysis with several members and the composite on those three players was:

Holliday - 1st

Ordonez - 11th

Abreu - 21st

You can't really expect a repeat on the BA from Ordonez but that Tiger lineup should score a lot of runs.

Kimo · Post by **Kimo** » Sun Dec 30, 2007 1:13 pm

I disagree with Abreu.. I think he still in the top 20 OF.

2nd half last year Abreu had over 60 runs, 60 Rbi, 11 HR and I think 12 SB and he hit over .300, also he hits #3 for the Yankees and in front of A Rod. 2nd half last year the Yanks almost had 100 more runs then any other ML team. Unless Abreu gets traded he still a top 10 to 15 OF.

Plymouth · Post by **Plymouth** » Sun Dec 30, 2007 1:18 pm

I won't argue your "stud" or your "disappointment" Gordon, but I can't agree with your sleeper. Magglio does not make my top 10 OF's at all. The real sleeper in the outfield is coming off 3 injuy plagued years and his name is Rocco Baldelli. He comes back strong with 85-21-80-20 and a .286 average. Not a top 10 by any means but nice numbers never the less.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Sun Dec 30, 2007 1:23 pm

Gordon happy holiday's and lets talk some baseball.Im with Kimo , Areu hitting 3rd in that lineup is just the best place for any hitter.

Actually his 2nd half numbers

12 hr

66 rbi's

69 runs

13 steals

309 bavg

They are both 34 years old, but Magglio cant run anymore.Anyway's i grabbed Abreu in the 3rd round last year in the ultimate and would do it again.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sun Dec 30, 2007 1:23 pm

How do you know how Shawn ranks the players?

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Sun Dec 30, 2007 1:32 pm

Bjoak , just go to baseballmafia.com and you can see his top 45 everything.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Dec 30, 2007 1:33 pm

For the ordonez "haters", what Batting Average do you give him for 2008?

For the Abreu "lovers", I guess his first half of 2007 doesn't count? It's great that he had a great 2nd half, but it's not like he found a new skill.

For bjoak, it's posted on the website he writes for.

Plymouth · Post by **Plymouth** » Sun Dec 30, 2007 1:37 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

For the ordonez "haters", what Batting Average do you give him for 2008? I have Mags at .308

I don't hate Mags, I have him in my top 20, he is just not top 10 caliber.

[ December 30, 2007, 07:42 PM: Message edited by: Plymouth ]

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sun Dec 30, 2007 1:43 pm

Our first run through has:

Abreu .288-17-100-27-109

Mags .310-24-111-2-91

This is the site, I, well, don't always totally agree. I would hedge a little lower on Abreu's SB and might inch up Mags R and RBI a tick, though I agree with the BA and HR numbers.

Last season, Mags had a hugely fortunate .385 BABIP -- after the two previous seasons around .320. We set the 2008 BABIP to .325.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Sun Dec 30, 2007 1:48 pm

Originally posted by ToddZ:

Our first run through has:

Abreu .288-17-100-27-109

Mags .310-24-111-2-91

This is the site, I, well, don't always totally agree. I would hedge a little lower on Abreu's SB and might inch up Mags R and RBI a tick, though I agree with the BA and HR numbers.

Last season, Mags had a hugely fortunate .385 BABIP -- after the two previous seasons around .320. We set the 2008 BABIP to .325. I have Mags at 307 as my 19th rated OF, Abreu 18th with 19 swipes.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Dec 30, 2007 1:50 pm

People will project abreu with 20+ steals until he doesn't do it the year b4. This is the year gentlemen.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Dec 30, 2007 1:57 pm

Originally posted by ToddZ:

Our first run through has:

Abreu .288-17-100-27-109

Mags .310-24-111-2-91

I would hedge a little lower on Abreu's SB and might inch up Mags R and RBI a tickyou are on the right track todd

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Dec 30, 2007 1:58 pm

looks like Ordonez truly is a sleeper

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Sun Dec 30, 2007 2:07 pm

Abreu stole 25 bases last year and was caught 8 times.He's had an OBP over 400 eight seasons which means he walks a ton , i would bet more than anyone in the last eight years but maybe BONDS.He will have plenty of chances to run.

I would be suprised if he doesnt top 20 to 25.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Sun Dec 30, 2007 2:35 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

STUD

Holliday, Matt - Was an absolute BEAST down the stretch with 23 homeruns over the last three months!!! OPS has gone up 4 years in a row. Playing in ColorAdo really limits his downside. He is the safest pick among OF and has even more upside, 40+ hr's & 150 rbi's.

Gekko's rank = #1 OF

Shawn Childs rank = #1 OF

Avg of 3 mb mock drafts rank = #1 OF

Baseball Forecaster rank = #1 OF

Duke's rank = #1 OF

Not much argument, expect 35 HRs though.

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Sleeper

Ordonez,Magglio - The addition of M.Cabrera solidifies the Tigers lineup as one of the best in baseball. If people can remember, Ordonez was a STUD in 2001/2002/2003 before going down with some knee troubles in 2004/2005. Now FULLY healthy for TWO years, it's time to get back to being a stud! Not the typical sleeper, but he looks undervalued (maybe a lot) by the industry experts.

Gekko's rank = #6 OF

Shawn Childs rank = #10 OF

Avg of 3 mb mock drafts rank = #16 OF

Baseball Forecaster rank = not in their top 20 OF

Duke's rank = #6 OF

well done GG.

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Disappointment

Abreu, Bobby - Player who gets a lot of value with his legs. At 34 years old, i wouldn't be surprised to see his SB go under 20, maybe even 15 or so. His Hr's have really gone downhill the last two years. Add in a new manager to the NY limelight and there's too many ? marks for me.

Gekko's rank = not in my top 20 OF

Baseball Forecaster rank = #10 OF

Shawn Childs rank = #11 OF

Avg of 3 mb mock drafts rank = #15 OF

Duke's rank = #9

Tank isn't empty, and as noted above hitting 3rd in MLB's #1 offense is as good as it gets.

More likely disappointment = Vladdy. Not in my top 10. Not running much and power keeps declining.

[ December 30, 2007, 08:41 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Sun Dec 30, 2007 3:25 pm

The really disapointment in NY is Jeter.

2006 118 runs 97 rbi 34 steals 343 bavg

2007 102 runs 73 rbi 15 steals 322 bavg

thats -16 runs -24 rbi -19 steals -21 bavg

Will Jeter suck like this again, this is 5th round value and he goes 2nd round every year.

Kimo · Post by **Kimo** » Sun Dec 30, 2007 3:27 pm

If Vladimir comes into the spring healthy he could put up 2007 Ordonez stats for 2008. Angels lineup is alot stronger this year and the pithing staffs of the A's, Mariners and Rangers are down this year. Valdy is still one of the most dominant hitters in the game.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Sun Dec 30, 2007 4:18 pm

Kimo your mail box is full, but congrads on your 1300 dollar auction win.I heard it was within a point.

Hard Heads · Post by **Hard Heads** » Sun Dec 30, 2007 4:41 pm

How exactly is a guy that hit .363 with 28 HR's 139 RBI and scored 117 runs in a very good lineup that just added Miguel Cabrera considered a sleeper? Is it based on the preseason rankings of Baseball HQ and you and Childs? Just curious why you would lump a top 10 OF in as a sleeper?

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Mon Dec 31, 2007 1:06 am

I can't say I disagree with Holliday, though the breakthrough would be if his Home/Road splits even up (i.e. the Road numbers get a little closer to the Coors numbers).

Mags and Abreu are solid picks that will not make it past the third round in the NFBC (duhh...you think?). The greater risk, for those who are adverse, to me is Abreu. With his power numbers down, is he the same ballplayer if he doesn't crack at least 20 SB? No. With his age as one question, will the new Yanks manager give him the green light in front of A-Rod as much as Torre did?

Is Abreu a top 20 OF? Yes. But this may be an indication of how thin OF really is this year (though I still might not go OF/OF in round 1 and 2, Chesty

). A top 10 OF? Not on my list as of right now.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Dec 31, 2007 2:34 am

Originally posted by Hard Heads:

How exactly is a guy that hit .363 with 28 HR's 139 RBI and scored 117 runs in a very good lineup that just added Miguel Cabrera considered a sleeper? Is it based on the preseason rankings of Baseball HQ and you and Childs? Just curious why you would lump a top 10 OF in as a sleeper? Avg of 3 mb mock drafts rank = #16 OF

Baseball Forecaster rank = not in their top 20 OF

you didn't think i was going to give you a sleeper like victorino was last year :rolleyes:

everyone needs to find their own in that respect.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Dec 31, 2007 2:44 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Mags and Abreu are solid picks that will not make it past the third round in the NFBC (duhh...you think?). According to the Forecaster's NFBC 15 team/30 man snake draft:

Abreu is 4th round material and Ordonez is 6th round

As for the NFBC, I wouldn't be surprised if both players made it to the 4th round (Abreu because he deserves to and Ordonez because he isn't getting any love).

Hard Heads · Post by **Hard Heads** » Mon Dec 31, 2007 4:21 am

I guess that was my other question, Why would anyone not affilated with a website that is a so called expert share his rankings anyway? If you are affiliated with a website and a so called expert GG then I apologize. I would never expect anyone that didn't readily have their thoughts and ideas available for all of us via a website or magazine to actually share their info, unless of course it was misinformation hoping to get the less informed and lazy to think differently.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Dec 31, 2007 4:36 am

Originally posted by Hard Heads:

I guess that was my other question, Why would anyone not affilated with a website that is a so called expert share his rankings anyway? If you are affiliated with a website and a so called expert GG then I apologize. I would never expect anyone that didn't readily have their thoughts and ideas available for all of us via a website or magazine to actually share their info, unless of course it was misinformation hoping to get the less informed and lazy to think differently.

i share because i can.

as always, YOU choose to read or not read my posts. we all see which path you've chosen

in case you haven't noticed in your years of playing fantasy sports, "websites" usually follow the "herd" mentality. i don't.