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This past Sunday I described a “stud”, “sleeper”, and “disappointment” tier 1 OUTFIELDER for 2008. For the many messages (PM’s & emails) which have come to me after that post, and which it is physically impossible to answer individually, I take this means of saying "thank you."



Today, sitting at my desk in the Gekko Industries HQ Building, I make my post describing a “stud”, “sleeper”, and “disappointment” CATCHER for 2008



Before doing so, I am reminded of some “can’t miss” catchers on draft day 2007. New up and comer, Chris Iannetta, was supposed to take Fantasy Nation by storm, esp since he plays in Colorado, and let us not forget that Gerald Laird had secured the #1 catching gig in hitter-friendly Texas. What happened from draft day till now… Iannetta hit .218 and lost his job to Yorvit Torrealba. Laird hit .224 and lost his job to Jarrod Saltalamacchia!! Just a painful remainder to some that catchers are a most fickle bunch. Do you use an early pick on getting a “GOLD-CARDED” catcher such as R.Martin or V.Martinez or do you wait until the middle or end of the draft and hope to sidestep the landmines?



On to the selections…

STUD… Martin, Russell

Russell Martin is a rare talent at catcher supplying power (19hr), speed (21sb), and batting average (.293). With Martin coming into his peak years (he’s only 25) AND with a full year of major league experience under his belt, would anyone be surprised with a 25/25 .300 season? I wouldn’t.



Martin is ranked #1 by Childs, the Baseball Forecaster, as well as me. The question is, what draft slot do you need to have in order to land this STUD?





SLEEPER… Napoli, Mike

Mike Napoli is a 26 year old catcher hitting in the powerful Angels lineup. Up to this point in his career he has yet to receive more than 268 AB’s in a season. BUT, in his 487 major league AB’s, he’s hit a total of 26 homeruns. WOW!!! Think that is a fluke??? He had seasons of hitting 29 and 31 hr’s in the minors as well. He can also turn on the mini-jets a bit, recording 5 steals last year. If he’s healthy, a season of over 400 AB’s is a guarantee. How’d you like to get over 20 hr’s and 10 sb from your catcher?



Napoli’s ranking…

Gekko - #9

Baseball Forecaster – In their top 10

Childs – Not in his top 15





DISAPPOINTMENT… Rodriguez, Ivan

I’m afraid Father Time has caught up with 36 year old Ivan Rodriguez. His homeruns have decreased four years in a row, and last year he stopped swiping bases (only 2). Even the Tigers excellent lineup can’t stop this Titanic from going down.



Rodriguez’s ranking…

Gekko - #19

Baseball Forecaster – Not in their top 15

Childs – #7



[ January 01, 2008, 10:23 AM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

SLEEPER… Napoli, Mike

Mike Napoli is a 26 year old catcher hitting in the powerful Angels lineup. Up to this point in his career he has yet to receive more than 268 AB’s in a season. BUT, in his 487 major league AB’s, he’s hit a total of 26 homeruns. WOW!!! Think that is a fluke??? He had seasons of hitting 29 and 31 hr’s in the minors as well. He can also turn on the mini-jets a bit, recording 5 steals last year. If he’s healthy, a season of over 400 AB’s is a guarantee. How’d you like to get over 20 hr’s and 10 sb from your catcher?



Napoli’s ranking…

Gekko - #9

Baseball Forecaster – In their top 10

Childs – Not in his top 15



See David Ross for a good comp -- that batting average will crush you.

I like Napoli as a sleeper also , has a good eye[taking walks] and some power.Needs to stay healthy .Jeff Mathis will take away some at bats, but he was a little bit of a dissapointment.But Rodriquez 19 and Napoli 9 is too big a margin.Rodriquez still gets 500 at bats a year and double digit homers with great bavg[for a catcher] 281.I would also [like shwan] have IROD in my top ten. In that lineup which is even better this year makes him a safe pick.If he can run a little 6 to 8 steals would boost him a little higher.

I have a hard time with a catcher taking walks and clogging up the bases for Figgins as a plus. With my poor hitting catchers, I will concede that he'll have that poor batting average, BUT I want him up there hacking just in case he connects and hits the long ball.

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:



DISAPPOINTMENT… Rodriguez, Ivan

I’m afraid Father Time has caught up with 36 year old Ivan Rodriguez. His homeruns have decreased four years in a row, and last year he stopped swiping bases (only 2). Even the Tigers excellent lineup can’t stop this Titanic from going down.



Rodriguez’s ranking…

Gekko - #19

Baseball Forecaster – Not in their top 15

Childs – #7 Gordon, if are going to use the information, please use all of it.



First, this is what I said about the whole group of catchers:



The catcher position is one many fantasy owner try to beat. They pass on the big names hoping to strike gold late in the draft. I think many fantasy owners fail to cash because they neglect this position. I don’t think you have to have the best catchers, but you don’t want to be looking on the waiver wire every week for a new one. Once every five years, you might find two catchers who break out together. If you plan your draft on getting both late, you will have your tail between your legs if another sharp owner steals them from you. You might also contend once every five years if this is your plan every year. I think the runs scored alone will cost many owners. Look back at last year’s standings, you will find 7 or 8 teams within 30 runs. I bet a weak core at catcher has put many losing owners in that situation. This year there will be a few young catchers who will definitely out perform the seasoned veterans. If you miss on Martinez, Martin, Mauer, and McCann, it will be a crap shot to rank the next 15 catchers. I listed the top 15 catchers here. I don’t like these the best, but I had to list somebody. I think there are a couple in next ten I would like to have. I’ll add more later.



Second, this is how I described him:



7-Ivan Rodriguez-Ivan will be 36 when the season starts. He is still a free swinger. He was great in his prime. I would look for him to be my second catcher. The only edge he has is batting average. I would be looking elsewhere this season.

Hmm,



Martin maybe goes too early to supply a return on investment, and as Pudge proves, catchers don't run forever.



Having 400 at bats from Napoli would summarily destroy your team batting average.



Pudge is maybe not a bad option if he is going to go that late.



Seems like some classic Gekko misinformation.

Originally posted by King of Queens:

[/qb]See David Ross for a good comp -- that batting average will crush you. [/quote]


i can tolerate a low batting average from a catcher. if Napoli hits anything over .250 it will all be gravy



i don't think ross will hit .203 again this year. if he does, just hope he's not on your roster

Originally posted by eddiejag:

I like Napoli as a sleeper also , has a good eye[taking walks] and some power.Needs to stay healthy .Jeff Mathis will take away some at bats, but he was a little bit of a dissapointment.But Rodriquez 19 and Napoli 9 is too big a margin.Rodriquez still gets 500 at bats a year and double digit homers with great bavg[for a catcher] 281.I would also [like shwan] have IROD in my top ten. In that lineup which is even better this year makes him a safe pick.If he can run a little 6 to 8 steals would boost him a little higher. Rodriquez's 2nd half was just terrible. not what i'd be looking for in a 36 year old catcher.

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

With my poor hitting catchers, I will concede that he'll have that poor batting average, BUT I want him up there hacking just in case he connects and hits the long ball. dan - some people prefer the kendall's of the world. i can't understand that one.

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Gordon, if are going to use the information, please use all of it.

shawn - YOU have him ranked #7. if you don't like him much, why did you rank him so high, just to fill the slot???



perhaps i'm more of a pessimist than you, but like i told eddie, a bad 2nd half from a 36 year old catcher isn't what the doctor ordered. looking deeper into that 2nd half shows, ivan was a "swing and misser" a LOT more than he usually is. doesn't bode well for a happy 2008 IMO

Originally posted by bjoak:

Hmm,



Martin maybe goes too early to supply a return on investment, and as Pudge proves, catchers don't run forever.



Having 400 at bats from Napoli would summarily destroy your team batting average.



Pudge is maybe not a bad option if he is going to go that late.



Seems like some classic Gekko misinformation. no need for misinformation here bjoak. martin is #1 catcher. i have a feeling that he will slip to the third round in quite a few drafts. that my friends is some good value.



so if Napoli hits .247 with 400AB, 20+hr, 60+ rbi's and 10sb, would that be bad for your team? on draft day, if you know you'll be taking a lower BA catcher to fill your #2 catcher slot, you can ALWAYS plan around that. well, maybe not you. you were the big ryan howard fan last year if i remember correctly.



btw, i heard that baseballmafia's website hits went up 10,000 per day after you found out where shawn writes.

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Gordon, if are going to use the information, please use all of it.

shawn - YOU have him ranked #7. if you don't like him much, why did you rank him so high, just to fill the slot???



perhaps i'm more of a pessimist than you, but like i told eddie, a bad 2nd half from a 36 year old catcher isn't what the doctor ordered. looking deeper into that 2nd half shows, ivan was a "swing and misser" a LOT more than he usually is. doesn't bode well for a happy 2008 IMO [/QUOTE]As I said, you have to put them in some sort of order. He might not be much, but either are the alternatives. The point was: I had him 7th yes, but I also said I wouldn't taken unless he was my second catcher. The way you posted it. It looks like I'm high on him which isn't the case by reading my comments.

R Martin has become one of my favorite players, he was on virtually every one of my teams last yr. He makes the Dodgers a much better club. As much as I like him, anything before the end of the 2nd/early 3rd rd is too soon (and even then consider it risky taking an injury-prone position that early) - doubtful he'll be on any of my re-draft teams this yr. But he is my #1 ranked C.



Pudge is a definite top 10. Not that I expect much other than a decent BA, above-avg playing time and run production; but that's enough to be a top 10 catcher.



Napoli should hit around 240 with OK power, but is unlikely to stand out IMO. He won't get as much PT as top catchers and thus can be thrown in the bucket with a bunch of very closely-valued C's in the second ten of rankings. Nothing special here.

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

Hmm,



Martin maybe goes too early to supply a return on investment, and as Pudge proves, catchers don't run forever.



Having 400 at bats from Napoli would summarily destroy your team batting average.



Pudge is maybe not a bad option if he is going to go that late.



Seems like some classic Gekko misinformation. no need for misinformation here bjoak. martin is #1 catcher. i have a feeling that he will slip to the third round in quite a few drafts. that my friends is some good value.



so if Napoli hits .247 with 400AB, 20+hr, 60+ rbi's and 10sb, would that be bad for your team? on draft day, if you know you'll be taking a lower BA catcher to fill your #2 catcher slot, you can ALWAYS plan around that. well, maybe not you. you were the big ryan howard fan last year if i remember correctly.



btw, i heard that baseballmafia's website hits went up 10,000 per day after you found out where shawn writes. [/QUOTE]Napoli will have to put up those numbers first. It's hardly the low end of what you can expect from him.



I was a Howard fan. Why not? He was one of my few first three round picks that has worked out for me in the NFBC. If you want to pick on me for something, pick on me for taking Bay and then Mauer after him. Or Bonderman 4th, the real value hemorrhager of the group. I start to get pretty excited about my #104 finish when I think of the start I had to my draft.



I did investigate Shawn's writing. Why not? Like you, I try to learn what I can from the better players around here. I have extensive files on some of these guys, actually.

Last year there seemed to be a fair number of decent catchers available and I was fairly high on the position. That (like many other) projection turned out to be not quite true as so many catchers under produced on their projections (Mauer, Hernandez, Barrett, Ross, Laird, and on and on).



This year the catcher category is like the girl your girlfriend in high school was always trying to get you to set up with one of your friends...to thin at the top, not much going on in the middle and the bottom is way too big.



After the four M's, there is just not that much upside. I kind of agree with GG's analysis here, but would only take Napoli if he fell into bargain territory AND I had plenty of room in the BA category. I had Ross last year in the Content Panel League and did not enjoy my choice. The Napoli comparison to Ross is valid if you look at that as Napoli's potential downside.

Sleeper that will be the hot sexy pick come March -- Geovany Soto.



Sleeper that now everyone knows I will want -- Kurt Suzuki.

Originally posted by ToddZ:

Sleeper that now everyone knows I will want -- Kurt Suzuki. You won't get him if you're in a league with me!!

You won't get him if you're in a league with me!! No shizzle -- I've already "let" you have him twice so far.



No to hijack Gordon's thread, though that is likely his intent, get the loose lips to share "too much" , I think catcher is actually a very intriguing position. I mentioned Soto and Suzuki, add in Towles, Salty and Ruiz as other "new kids on the block."



[ January 01, 2008, 02:48 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

My secret with the catching promblem, if you cant get a top eight catcher then dont worry.

Last year i was able to grab Zaun on the waiver wire in all my leagues 10 hr and 52 rbi's.

Yes his bavg a little low but these numbers arent far off from catchers being taken in the 11th and 12th round.Yadier Molina [6hr 40 rbi 275 bavg] another waiver wire pick up.Yorvit Torreable was a guy drafted at the end of the draft 8hr 47 rbi.

I JUST cant waste a high draft pick on a catcher when you can get a top pitcher or some needed help elsewhere.

To many catcher's just dont pan out and people will continue to draft them way to early just to fill the position. If you cant get a top one then wait.The difference from a catcher in the 11th ,12th ,or 13th round is not much of a difference from a catcher getting picked up in the much later rounds.[say 20 to 26]

just my opinion.

Originally posted by KJ Duke:



Pudge is a definite top 10. Not that I expect much other than a decent BA, above-avg playing time and run production; but that's enough to be a top 10 catcher.

Would u be surprised if pudge had a lower batting average AND lower homeruns this year?

Originally posted by ToddZ:

Sleeper that will be the hot sexy pick come March -- Geovany Soto.

Another decent choice, althoug I think he will likely be overvalued on draft day due to his good performance in limited at bats last year.

Originally posted by ToddZ:



No to hijack Gordon's thread, though that is likely his intent, get the loose lips to share "too much" , Nah. A LOT will change from now till the middle of march. I'm just getting some quality baseball talk going.



btw, what projections do u have for towles this year? Mmmuuuuhahahaha!!

Originally posted by bjoak:

If you want to pick on me for something, pick on me for taking Bay and then Mauer after him. Or Bonderman 4th, the real value hemorrhager of the group.



I have extensive files on some of these guys, actually. I don't have any files on any participants, but hasn't your #1 SP usually been a position that u've overpaid for?



Bonderman in the 4th???? Didn't you nab sheets or harden early one year too? U may just want to bite the bullet and take santana in the 1st.

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:



Pudge is a definite top 10. Not that I expect much other than a decent BA, above-avg playing time and run production; but that's enough to be a top 10 catcher.

Would u be surprised if pudge had a lower batting average AND lower homeruns this year? [/QUOTE]BA - not really, but I'd be surpised if he falls below 270, still very good for a C. HRs - I think his HR rate could drop some, HR totals depend on health - I could see a few less there.

If Soto, Salty, or Towles have a great spring training, they may end up being the most overvalued picks of the draft.