Gekko - Fireside Chat_-_FirstBase

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Jan 10, 2008 3:03 am

Commissioner Ambrosius, Vice Commissioner Kessenich, members of the NFBC, and future NFBC members: Every year from January – March we meet on these message boards to talk baseball, sign up for leagues, look for nuggets of information, brag about our teams, etc… The list is seemingly endless. This year, we gather here deeply aware of decisive day that lies ahead, Draft Day 2008. This is the fifth year of existence for the NFBC. For those of us who haven’t turned a profit yet, for those of us who haven’t won a league yet, for those of us who haven’t cashed yet, I COME HERE TO TELL YOU THAT THIS IS THE YEAR IT CHANGES! Gone are the days of drafting an injured player, spending your FAAB foolishly, and showing up drunk to the draft. They are replaced with doing countless hours of draft-day preparation, saving your FAAB to address real needs, and arriving to the draft 2 hours ahead of time with a pot of coffee. The time is NOW my friends! The puzzle pieces to the 100,000 are staring you right in the face. Can you find the pieces and assemble the puzzle correctly? Have you started prepping yet? If not, what are you waiting for. Get started today and don’t look back. Given enough time, ANYTHING is possible.

And now on to my first base STUD, SLEEPER, and DISAPPOINTMENT

STUD - Pujols,Albert

"Poodles" as I call him has been in the league 8 years, but is still only 28 years young. Last year he had his worst performance of his career to the tune of: 32hr, 99run, 103rbi, 2sb, and a .327avg. The hr, run, and rbi's were all CAREER lows. I see some of my peers lowering him down their draft lists based on the "what have you done for me lately doctrine". I say they are wrong. In eight years Poodles has never had below 32hr, 99 runs, 103 rbi, and a .314avg. Those numbers are career years for a lot of players!!! While other owners will be selecting players with less of a track record in the first round, you can be assured of consistent excellence by selecting Poodles.

Gekko's Rank = 1

Child's Rank = 1

Forecaster Rank = 1

Fantasy Sports Rank = 1

SLEEPER - Votto,Joey

Votto has the tools to be a FIVE category stud. Last year Votto hit .294 with 22hr, 92rbi's, 27sb attempts (17 successful) all in under 500AB's at AAA. If Votto was going to play in a pitcher's park or a neutral park, i'd like him a lot less. But since he'll play half his games in Cincy, he should throw up some pretty good numbers. Look what Josh Hamilton and Alex Gonzalez did last year. Those are some CRAZY hr numbers and Votto should get his this year. My only concern at this point is that he gets enough at bats to cash in on his enormous potential. At this point, I think he does!!

Gekko's Rank = 14

Child's Rank = Not in his top 15

Forecaster Rank = Not in thier top 15

Fantasy Sports Rank = 19

DISAPPOINTMENT - James Loney

Sure Loney hit .331 with 15 hr in the Majors last year, but people quickly forget that he was hitting .279 with 1hr in 233 at bats in AAA before his callup. I know he might be hitting in a sweet spot in the lineup, but i wouldn't be surpised to see him hit less hr this year even with more at bats.

Gekko's Rank = 17

Child's Rank = 13

Forecaster Rank = Not in thier top 15

Fantasy Sports Rank = 16

[ January 10, 2008, 09:04 AM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Thu Jan 10, 2008 3:41 am

love votto- but how do you know he plays? the fantasy guys want him, kemp etc. to play. i couldn't believe kemp did not play fulltime last year. he hit .340- but they played pierre. cinci resigned hatenburg. just think you/ me everyone is guessing as to what dusty will do. THAT is a tough one- but he likes vets. obviously just an opinion.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Thu Jan 10, 2008 3:54 am

Pujols in 2008 reminds me a lot of ARod in 2007. A consensus #1 pick in 2007 drafts (just as A-Rod was in 2006), he stumbled a bit last year and didn't put up the 55HR 150RBI season that many were expecting -- exactly the same disappointment that A-Rod owners felt in 2006.

My guess is that Pujols will be drafted anywhere from #4 to #7 overall in main event drafts. If the Cardinals can get decent production before and after Pujols, he could be a steal in the middle of the 1st round. Yes, just like A-Rod was in 2007.

Snord35 · Post by **Snord35** » Thu Jan 10, 2008 5:32 am

Pujols will not be worth a top 5 pick!

My reasons;

1. No protection, Duncan, Rolen, Ankiel? He has a better chance at setting the BB record than having 100 runs and 100 RBI's. See this hurting his HR total too. 150+ walks will take a 50-100 more ab's away from him this year.

2. RBI's will not reach 120+ Who bats 1 and 2 for this team? Don't see many ab's with 2 or more runners on.

3. Runs will not reach 110. Again who will drive him in? Rolen (last 3 years one year over 60 RBI's), Ankiel , Duncan, Rasmus?

Yes Pujols will help teams but don't be looking for a line like .350, 110, 45, 130, 5 I see it more like .330, 95, 35, 100, 5 at best. I would rather take Howard who has Rollins and Utley hitting in front of him and look for .280, 100, 45, 140, 0. It all comes down to do you value a guy that has a plus plus avg and good power stats more than a guy with ok-good avg and plus plus power stats. I see Pujols ab's down so avg won't help team as much. Rather take the extra HR's and RBI's.

I have Howard over Pujols and have them ranked in the 5-10 overall range.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Jan 10, 2008 7:21 am

Originally posted by Snord35:

I have Howard over Pujols and have them ranked in the 5-10 overall range. I am pretty high on Howard, but you are a braver man than I. Howards mid-sixties contact rate and who they will hit after him (Rowand is no longer around and I am not sure Jenkins will elicit much fear) are a bit daunting. Howard has proven he will take a walk and teams just might figure out that they just do not need to give him a pitch to hit.

baggler · Post by **baggler** » Thu Jan 10, 2008 8:48 am

I agree with you GG, Pujols is a stud and if he falls past 5 it's a steal for many owners at 6. Just the way A-Rod slid to seven in some drafts.

Anyhow I was a big Votto fan last year as a late sleeper pick but having Dusty now and the resigning of Hatteberg has me concerned. He could put up Derek Lee stats in time. I just think the whole Cincy situation has to be ironed out with all those starters and not enough positions. I'll have to wait and see before I say Votto is a top 15 firstbaseman.

And Loney is a good bust candidate.It will be interesting again as a new manager is at the helm (Torre) in LA , it'll be wait and see for me here also.

My stud player is D.Lee , sleeper pick is Mike Jacobs and over rated is Carlos Pena.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Thu Jan 10, 2008 2:25 pm

Gordan i kind of like Loney , got his feet wet last year and had a 12 hr 54 rbi, and a 304 bavg in the 2nd half.I just see improvment coming this year , maybe 20 homer's 90 rbi's and a 300 bvg. My sleeper is Wigginton and plays 2nd also.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Thu Jan 10, 2008 2:26 pm

That is 3rd base sleeper.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Thu Jan 10, 2008 4:25 pm

Originally posted by eddiejag:

That is 3rd base sleeper. Eddie - if you could draft him late as your 2B or MI why would you call him a sleeper at 3B???

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Thu Jan 10, 2008 4:34 pm

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

quote:Originally posted by eddiejag:

That is 3rd base sleeper. Eddie - if you could draft him late as your 2B or MI why would you call him a sleeper at 3B??? [/QUOTE]That's the beauty of EddieG -- whether he puts Wiggy at 2B, MI, 3B or UT, if you're in his league, he'll still figure out a way to beat you.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Fri Jan 11, 2008 12:19 am

Yeah I need some more rest, first i put him in the base section then ment 3rd base , but his best value would be 2nd base.Lets start over , i like Wiggy period.

Now a possible 1base sleeper Sexson

He just went in the 19 round in the Childs draft ,coming off a 34 hr ,107 rbi's and a 264 bavg[which doesnt kill you] in 2006.The big Sexy is just 33 and his ADP last year was around the 6th round.Why is he fallen so far , im guessing his bavg of 205 is preety ugly.

My 2ndbase sleeper is Wiggy LOL.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Fri Jan 11, 2008 12:23 am

I know Gek isnt high on Loney but i am.Just took him in the 11th round in the Childs draft, took him over Delgado.What do some of you other guys thing of him, [ crazy chest king hook lessdave ]

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Fri Jan 11, 2008 12:55 am

Originally posted by eddiejag:

I know Gek isnt high on Loney but i am.Just took him in the 11th round in the Childs draft, took him over Delgado.What do some of you other guys thing of him, [ crazy chest king hook lessdave ] I think Loney can be decent, but I don't see a "Markakian Breakout" from him in 2008. Maybe 17 HRs, depending on playing time.

I'd rate Delgado as slightly ahead of Loney.

[ January 11, 2008, 10:40 AM: Message edited by: King of Queens ]

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Fri Jan 11, 2008 4:15 am

Loney is a solid contact hitter, but I do not think he will ever give you more than "average" fantasy points. Anything more than 15 HR, 65 R, 75 RBI, and a .275 BA is a blessing, especially at his age. And that is if he gets 550 AB. I view this as his floor. 10 R, 10 RBI, 5 HR, and .010 BA is his incremental upside to me in 2008 at age 23. Less than 300 AB last year in the majors is not much to go on, really.

Delgado's age causes some concern and at 35 I was wondering if we saw the true signs of decline last year. In Delgado, he might hit .280, but .265 is more likely, but his counting stats should be upside over Loney. Delgado still has 30 HR power but that is given he can hit 525 AB again. He should have more RBI and R than Loney as well. I have Delgado above Loney on my list, but then again, I prefer proven veterans over 23 year olds (as long as they are not named Pujols...

).

Bobby J · Post by **Bobby J** » Fri Jan 11, 2008 4:15 am

I see Loney more of a Helton type, won't hit alot of homers unless he plays in Colorado. Basically a career 290-90-17-90-2, something along that lines. I think Delgado has a couple more years left of 35 hr and 110 rbi, average won't be there, but a steal in round 11, would have passed on Loney til he has a good year, but with Delgado you know what you are going to get .270-90-25-100 at a minimum

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Fri Jan 11, 2008 4:30 am

Originally posted by eddiejag:

I know Gek isnt high on Loney but i am.Just took him in the 11th round in the Childs draft, took him over Delgado.What do some of you other guys thing of him, [ crazy chest king hook lessdave ] I must admit I am curious about the Loney comments from some here. Have YOU ever seen him play? Kid has a great stroke. He hit 295 last year, why would you see it going down this year when he should be full time at 1B?

Look at his second half numbers last year for a better idea of his upside.

I will split the difference and suggest that in 2008 he is closer to 70-20-85-2-300 than any of the other lines.

I would take him over Delgado unless I needed to swing the pick for HR/RBI where even with a lower BA, Delgado might if he rebounds do better.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Fri Jan 11, 2008 4:34 am

Originally posted by eddiejag:

Gordan i kind of like Loney , got his feet wet last year and had a 12 hr 54 rbi, and a 304 bavg in the 2nd half.I just see improvment coming this year , maybe 20 homer's 90 rbi's and a 300 bvg. eddie - loney will never run and his major league hr's are an abberation last year. he's NEVER shown that type of power before. is it possible that he is starting to fill out his large frame, certainly, but too much risk for ole GG

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Fri Jan 11, 2008 4:36 am

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

I must admit I am curious about the Loney comments from some here. Have YOU ever seen him play? maybe zaleski has

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Fri Jan 11, 2008 4:39 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by eddiejag:

Gordan i kind of like Loney , got his feet wet last year and had a 12 hr 54 rbi, and a 304 bavg in the 2nd half.I just see improvment coming this year , maybe 20 homer's 90 rbi's and a 300 bvg. eddie - loney will never run and his major league hr's are an abberation last year. he's NEVER shown that type of power before. is it possible that he is starting to fill out his large frame, certainly, but too much risk for ole GG

[/QUOTE]The only evidence I can find to support Loney's power surge is that he had a hand/wrist injury in 2005 that may very well have sapped his power. Perhaps he was finally healthy by the end of 2007.

Despite that little nugget, my money's on a mid- to upper teen HR total in 2008, with R and RBI totals dependent on where he bats and playing time. Batting average will almost certainly be a plus.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Fri Jan 11, 2008 5:11 am

There is no ceiling on batting eye, youth, size and ability. You don't think at some point he'll learn to put a little more loft and backspin on a ball ?. One example comes to mind - Hanley Ramirez in 4 minor league season never hit over 8 hrs in a season. He hit 29 last year. NEVER pigeonhole a player.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Fri Jan 11, 2008 5:21 am

Originally posted by Quahogs:

There is no ceiling on batting eye, youth, size and ability. You don't think at some point he'll learn to put a little more loft and backspin on a ball ?. One example comes to mind - Hanley Ramirez in 4 minor league season never hit over 8 hrs in a season. He hit 29 last year. NEVER pigeonhole a player. Q - if u apply that logic to EVERY player under the age of 26 or 25 or whatever, you will NEVER be able to rule anyone out. All of us NFBC'ers (including you) are in the business of "pigeonholing" players. Perhaps some of us do it to a lesser degree than others, but we all do it.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Fri Jan 11, 2008 5:44 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Quahogs:

There is no ceiling on batting eye, youth, size and ability. You don't think at some point he'll learn to put a little more loft and backspin on a ball ?. One example comes to mind - Hanley Ramirez in 4 minor league season never hit over 8 hrs in a season. He hit 29 last year. NEVER pigeonhole a player. Q - if u apply that logic to EVERY player under the age of 26 or 25 or whatever, you will NEVER be able to rule anyone out. All of us NFBC'ers (including you) are in the business of "pigeonholing" players. Perhaps some of us do it to a lesser degree than others, but we all do it. [/QUOTE]Yes Mark that is correct. We do need to categorize players as best we can in order to formulate some kind of draft plan. My NEVER pigeonhole line was too broad a declaration. I basically try to keep an open mind when it comes to a young highly drafted/touted player. There've been a couple of players I've overlooked (hanley being one of them)

because I let the minor league #'s hold too much water.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Fri Jan 11, 2008 6:09 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Captain Hook:

I must admit I am curious about the Loney comments from some here. Have YOU ever seen him play? maybe zaleski has [/QUOTE]LOL... I hate the Dodgers.

Your Loney prediction looks like a set up to hopefully see him drop a little bit in value at the draft. Hope it works as I wouldn't mind him later than sooner as a CI. I'll side with the Q on this one.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Fri Jan 11, 2008 6:10 am

I know what you are saying Q. If we all had 48 hours in a day, we could dig deep for every player. Until then, we have to pick and choose where we invest our limited time.

Jumping back to hanley, what have you identified as the "thing" you overlooked with him?

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Fri Jan 11, 2008 6:28 am

Originally posted by eddiejag:

I know Gek isnt high on Loney but i am.Just took him in the 11th round in the Childs draft, took him over Delgado.What do some of you other guys thing of him, [ crazy chest king hook lessdave ] I thought it was a great pick Eddie no promblem at all with it.