Santana/Peavy, 2 SP strategy - Revisited 5 years later

EliGrimmett
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Santana/Peavy results

Post by EliGrimmett » Thu Feb 28, 2008 8:57 pm

I'll agree with fireballs and Gekko. ERA will be around 3.95 on the season, WHIP is good. W's could be short, but with proper management you might circumvent that - or with Santana pulling 20+ Bottom third in SV's without help from the wire.



BA looks around .275. When you have more than two or three guys who can hit under .260 you can run into problems. HR's - plenty! R's and RBI's a hair low, but mostly due to potential AB problems.



If this team was in the MAIN EVENT I'd say you'd accumulate about 65% of the overall points. Above average. Crazy strategy, one I won't be attempting anytime soon. Good luck with it.



[ February 29, 2008, 02:59 AM: Message edited by: EliGrimmett ]
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Post by GOD Loves You » Thu Feb 28, 2008 10:37 pm

Jack, I agree with Dub. Once you selected those 2 pitchers, you basically committed yourself to pitching....yet YOU didn't. I would've grabbed at least one, if not 2 or 3 more tier 2 pitchers, instead of waiting so long.



I laugh at the craaazy strategy comments. When are people going to realize a league CAN be won with many different strategies? I somewhat did the same thing in a satellite last season.....selected 4 pitchers in the first 7 rounds.....basically lead the league the whole season.



You really needed one more top flight starter to make this work. The positive comments should make you think you are doomed. If the masses like it, it's probably bad.

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Post by GOD Loves You » Thu Feb 28, 2008 10:40 pm

Maybe replace Konerko with a pitcher and then instead of getting Marcum, get a guy like Garko? This one little change would've probably made a big difference.

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Post by RedRum » Fri Feb 29, 2008 1:01 am

After taking 2 SP's with your first 2 picks, Were there any POWER hitters available for your 3rd round pick over a Corey Hart (ie Hafner or Dunn) ? Just wondering cause after 2 rds I would think your in a HUGE HR/RBI hole in comparison to another team that at the 3rd round could have at least 80 HR's and 200 RBI's in the bag to your ZERO at that point..





Dont take that as a negative, because I think for this strategy you made a formidable comeback (somewhat).. I'd have to see another team in that league that went with 2 big hitters in the first 2 RD's.. A polar opposite team and do a side by side comparison to your team.. You should have the edge for your Starters but I'm not at all convinced of your BP...





But with that said , I like this strategy the more i look at it.. Good Stuff...



[ February 29, 2008, 07:06 AM: Message edited by: RedRum ]
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Post by The Mighty Men » Fri Feb 29, 2008 1:24 am

Red Rum - Dunn and Manny went right after my Hart pick, and Hafner went at 4.14. I passed on Hafner in this draft because I thought I could get a fairly equal bat in Thome in round 8 or so, which I did.
Who is this, robed in splendor, striding forward in the greatness of his strength? “It is I, proclaiming victory, mighty to save.” Isaiah 63:1

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Post by mother » Fri Feb 29, 2008 3:17 am

I'm not a big poster on the boards, but felt compelled to comment on this one. To be successful with this type of strategy requires significant knowledge of where the "value" lies as the draft is progressing--that is, identifying someone still there in the 10th who's a good bet to give you 7th round production. Based on your final roster and some of your later round picks, this attribute you definitely have. A very impressive effort: it reminded me of chess players who will test themselves by starting out a match with one of their rooks and a knight already off the board--whether they win that game or not, the exercise of playing at a disadvantage has made them stronger.



Back to the strategy itself: the main reason that starting pitching is typically drafted after hitters is not due to the relative value they return, but because of the higher injury risk pitchers carry. Taking one pitcher that early is risky, but expecting two to both hold up and perform at Cy Young levels through an entire season...



Regardless of how this sat team ultimately turns out, you should feel very confident in your drafting abilities come the Main. I hope you are not in my NYC league (but given your risk tolerance, my guess is that you are Vegas bound).

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Santana/Peavy results

Post by headhunters » Fri Feb 29, 2008 3:39 am

he is in chicago- you can rest easy. nice comments. i think this year in the offseason i will make it my mission to analyze the statement" pitchers are a greater risk than hitters". while i think this statement is true, i have heard it said so many times in every board and mag without much evidence of its truth i am starting to think it is like " the sun revolves around the earth". i do know that i need to check this out- but it is too late for this year. i do know people tend to draft off last years #'s so there is an immediate contradiction there- because last year these guys were real good- and only 50% progression with peavy up and santana down. i think it would be sort of a sneaky bet if i sais " pick ant ny draft in the main. take everyone that drafted 2 hitters. i will bet that santana/ peavy up down percentage ( 0, 50% or 100% + their combined value will excede more than half of the teams ist 2 players. i am almost positive that would be a winning bet the last 4 years. i have come that far in my thinking, but need to ponder more on this.

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Post by headhunters » Fri Feb 29, 2008 3:51 am

the post by gly is the one i like the most because he has done something like this. i guess if i have time i will run the pitcher #'s but the power and sb came out fine. i think he gambled that guys would be there and they weren't- where in the drafts i see gly doing- i think you are so good at planning a draft out that you can do this. for jack to do it- this is why he did it- like mother said, makes you think things through more carefully. and hey glu- he has gomes isn't that worth 40 homers gly- what about swapping out polanco in round 11 for a theriot later? would that have been too late for a pitcher- grenke, lowe, blanton?

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Post by Crazy Like a Fox » Fri Feb 29, 2008 4:57 am

Originally posted by headhunters:

he is in chicago- you can rest easy. nice comments. i think this year in the offseason i will make it my mission to analyze the statement" pitchers are a greater risk than hitters". while i think this statement is true, i have heard it said so many times in every board and mag without much evidence of its truth i am starting to think it is like " the sun revolves around the earth". i do know that i need to check this out- but it is too late for this year. i do know people tend to draft off last years #'s so there is an immediate contradiction there- because last year these guys were real good- and only 50% progression with peavy up and santana down. i think it would be sort of a sneaky bet if i sais " pick ant ny draft in the main. take everyone that drafted 2 hitters. i will bet that santana/ peavy up down percentage ( 0, 50% or 100% + their combined value will excede more than half of the teams ist 2 players. i am almost positive that would be a winning bet the last 4 years. i have come that far in my thinking, but need to ponder more on this. Putting strategy aside, and just looking at overall value, I think Santana could be the most valuable player in the draft, Peavy could be top 3 just based on impact.



With that being said, it wouldn't make sense to take Johan or Peavy in the top 5 picks because you can get them later, but you wouldn't exactly be burying yourself in a hole either.



I never really bought into the whole "pitchers are a greater risk" theory but there is certainly a bigger variance from numbers from year to year making them less predictable.



As far as Johan is concerned, he's showed he's extremely reliable and dominant, and I'd be surprised if he wasn't at the very least the top 3 most valuable player in 2008.



The theory "lots of pitchers late" applies to hitters as well.



Also you'll notice, when people critique drafts the two cats most people analyze are offensive cats like homers and stolen bases, as if no other categories exist. You never hear, "your whip is going to take a beating". Some people might think that it's hard to predict, probably just as hard to predict homers or rbi's.



Just a thought.
"Hit a home run - put your head down, drop the bat, run around the bases, because the name on the front is more - a lot more important than the name on the back."

Ryne Sandberg (my favorite player of all-time)

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Post by headhunters » Fri Feb 29, 2008 7:30 am

crazy- i am getting worried- i agree with you almost every time now. i always say to my self "and whip" and "era". not to argue- just to ask- have you seen someone run #'s on the "greater variance" of pitchers? just staying with satana as "the best pitcher" albert went from hitter #1 to about hitter #30 and player #45 or so. a rod did the reverse. satana went from pitcher #1 to maybe pitcher 20 ( including closers) just an example

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Post by GOD Loves You » Fri Feb 29, 2008 8:48 am

Originally posted by headhunters:

the post by gly is the one i like the most because he has done something like this. i guess if i have time i will run the pitcher #'s but the power and sb came out fine. i think he gambled that guys would be there and they weren't- where in the drafts i see gly doing- i think you are so good at planning a draft out that you can do this. for jack to do it- this is why he did it- like mother said, makes you think things through more carefully. and hey glu- he has gomes isn't that worth 40 homers gly- what about swapping out polanco in round 11 for a theriot later? would that have been too late for a pitcher- grenke, lowe, blanton? Thanks Headhunters, glad somebody recognized my skill. ;)



In the draft I referenced from last season, I took Johan, Peavy, Kazmir, and Haren...(Lincecum too, but I dropped him ). Throw in a Broxton with these 4 studs and it allowed me to basically do whatever I wanted with my pitching staff. Jack basically made the dominance of Johan mediocre due to the rest of his staff.



There IS plenty of offense to be had late if one can find it. I agree about passing on Polanco as well....JACK, what was you're thought process behind this pick? Headhunters has the right idea, pass on him and get Theriot a few rounds later OR even get a Wigginton, at least he has some power and should surprise this season.



Going pitching heavy, I would either focus on a bunch of power hitters and not care about average...or go for high AVG players who steal a ton of bases.



Of course I just recently had to use two hands to count how many years I've been playing fantasy sports AND my "outside the box" thinking gets ridiculed with every roster I post...so what do I know..other than Gomes hits 30+hr's this season. :D

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Post by headhunters » Fri Feb 29, 2008 9:01 am

gly- i looked at that draft caefully many times- i think one big dfference is- i think you got peavy in the 3rd. this exercise was obviously a little different and i a think a middle ground has to be reached. it might be your influence or shawns ( in a counter intuitive way with shawns) but st. pitchers are going a round earlier this year- making it tougher- i think.

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Post by The Mighty Men » Fri Feb 29, 2008 9:12 am

GLY - Polanco. I wanted his runs and was still trying to manage BA at that point. Wigginton was in consideration, but I was trying to hang on to BA points at that time. He would have probably made it even worse. I felt I could not afford to dump a category.
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Post by Atlas » Fri Feb 29, 2008 3:06 pm

Originally posted by The Mighty Men:

Red Rum - Dunn and Manny went right after my Hart pick, and Hafner went at 4.14. I passed on Hafner in this draft because I thought I could get a fairly equal bat in Thome in round 8 or so, which I did. I was pretty stoked to see Hafner fall to 4.14!

:D

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Post by rkulaski » Fri Feb 29, 2008 4:06 pm

Originally posted by GOD Loves You:

quote:Originally posted by headhunters:

the post by gly is the one i like the most because he has done something like this. i guess if i have time i will run the pitcher #'s but the power and sb came out fine. i think he gambled that guys would be there and they weren't- where in the drafts i see gly doing- i think you are so good at planning a draft out that you can do this. for jack to do it- this is why he did it- like mother said, makes you think things through more carefully. and hey glu- he has gomes isn't that worth 40 homers gly- what about swapping out polanco in round 11 for a theriot later? would that have been too late for a pitcher- grenke, lowe, blanton? Thanks Headhunters, glad somebody recognized my skill. ;)



In the draft I referenced from last season, I took Johan, Peavy, Kazmir, and Haren...(Lincecum too, but I dropped him ). Throw in a Broxton with these 4 studs and it allowed me to basically do whatever I wanted with my pitching staff. Jack basically made the dominance of Johan mediocre due to the rest of his staff.



There IS plenty of offense to be had late if one can find it. I agree about passing on Polanco as well....JACK, what was you're thought process behind this pick? Headhunters has the right idea, pass on him and get Theriot a few rounds later OR even get a Wigginton, at least he has some power and should surprise this season.



Going pitching heavy, I would either focus on a bunch of power hitters and not care about average...or go for high AVG players who steal a ton of bases.



Of course I just recently had to use two hands to count how many years I've been playing fantasy sports AND my "outside the box" thinking gets ridiculed with every roster I post...so what do I know..other than Gomes hits 30+hr's this season. :D
[/QUOTE]gly,

how much success in your leagues have you had drafting "outside the box"?



Also in regards to the batting categories, are you suggesting to Mighty Men that, after drafting johan/peavy, he should've dumped a category like Bavg and hoped to dominate all of pitching and 2-3 batting like HR/RBI ?? Is there really a difference in cumulative points if he tried to "not dump a category" and stay balanced in all 5 hitting areas versus scoring high in 2 areas i.e. HR/RBIs and low in the others??



this has been a great thread by the way....lots of different opinions.



[ February 29, 2008, 10:08 PM: Message edited by: Hitless ]
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Post by GOD Loves You » Sat Mar 01, 2008 4:31 am

Hitless....in the NFBC sats, I've won 3 out of 4. The only one I didn't win was last years Mag II draft: my team finished 3rd, two points behind :mad: ....damn u Cpt. Hook/shut down pitchers.



This will be my first year in the main.



What I suggested to Jack IS what I would've done. I've never totally punted a category, but rather, I just don't emphasize a few when I'm drafting. BA is so volatile...I don't worry much about it.

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Post by Crazy Like a Fox » Sat Mar 01, 2008 10:59 pm

Originally posted by headhunters:

crazy- i am getting worried- i agree with you almost every time now. i always say to my self "and whip" and "era". not to argue- just to ask- have you seen someone run #'s on the "greater variance" of pitchers? just staying with satana as "the best pitcher" albert went from hitter #1 to about hitter #30 and player #45 or so. a rod did the reverse. satana went from pitcher #1 to maybe pitcher 20 ( including closers) just an example I have not but I think it would be very telling if someone checked out variances in pitcher's stats from year to year next to hitters.



I'd be interested to hear thoughts on how to take advantage during draft of certain expected drafting behavior. Let's say this year more than normal many fantasy players are taking young pitching later with unreasonable expectations or taking pitching way too late in general. How can I take advantage of this information? I guess drafting more veteran (less sexy) pitchers could give me a great advantage over my competition. I wish someone can delve deeper into this subject for me as I'm sure there are many ways to take advantage of incorrect drafting flows (for a lack of better words).



There are quite a few guys I listen to on these boards and you're one of them. Bjoak, eddiejag, C.C. Desperados, Doughboys, Dub, Edwards Kings, sportsbettingman, LessthanDave, God Loves Me, Zola, are all very knowledgeable as well. After spending a year on these boards, I've learned so much. Thanks guys.
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Post by EliGrimmett » Sun Mar 02, 2008 12:51 pm

GLY: Don't forget that you were behind me too! ;)
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Post by RedRum » Thu Mar 06, 2008 1:44 am

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by headhunters:

he is in chicago- you can rest easy. nice comments. i think this year in the offseason i will make it my mission to analyze the statement" pitchers are a greater risk than hitters". while i think this statement is true, i have heard it said so many times in every board and mag without much evidence of its truth i am starting to think it is like " the sun revolves around the earth". i do know that i need to check this out- but it is too late for this year. i do know people tend to draft off last years #'s so there is an immediate contradiction there- because last year these guys were real good- and only 50% progression with peavy up and santana down. i think it would be sort of a sneaky bet if i sais " pick ant ny draft in the main. take everyone that drafted 2 hitters. i will bet that santana/ peavy up down percentage ( 0, 50% or 100% + their combined value will excede more than half of the teams ist 2 players. i am almost positive that would be a winning bet the last 4 years. i have come that far in my thinking, but need to ponder more on this. Putting strategy aside, and just looking at overall value, I think Santana could be the most valuable player in the draft, Peavy could be top 3 just based on impact.



With that being said, it wouldn't make sense to take Johan or Peavy in the top 5 picks because you can get them later, but you wouldn't exactly be burying yourself in a hole either.



I never really bought into the whole "pitchers are a greater risk" theory but there is certainly a bigger variance from numbers from year to year making them less predictable.



As far as Johan is concerned, he's showed he's extremely reliable and dominant, and I'd be surprised if he wasn't at the very least the top 3 most valuable player in 2008.



The theory "lots of pitchers late" applies to hitters as well.



Also you'll notice, when people critique drafts the two cats most people analyze are offensive cats like homers and stolen bases, as if no other categories exist. You never hear, "your whip is going to take a beating". Some people might think that it's hard to predict, probably just as hard to predict homers or rbi's.



Just a thought.
[/QUOTE]You have a good point about whip BUT I think it is the one category out of the 10 we use that moves up or down at the slowest rate. I find if your chasing someone in whip as the season goes on and your still chasing then say good night to that race.. Its sickening how little it moves... On the flip side the non ratio categories or compiler categories are very easy to move in and gain on someone your chasing..



[ March 06, 2008, 07:48 AM: Message edited by: RedRum ]
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Post by Crazy Like a Fox » Thu Mar 06, 2008 10:28 pm

Originally posted by RedRum:

quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by headhunters:

he is in chicago- you can rest easy. nice comments. i think this year in the offseason i will make it my mission to analyze the statement" pitchers are a greater risk than hitters". while i think this statement is true, i have heard it said so many times in every board and mag without much evidence of its truth i am starting to think it is like " the sun revolves around the earth". i do know that i need to check this out- but it is too late for this year. i do know people tend to draft off last years #'s so there is an immediate contradiction there- because last year these guys were real good- and only 50% progression with peavy up and santana down. i think it would be sort of a sneaky bet if i sais " pick ant ny draft in the main. take everyone that drafted 2 hitters. i will bet that santana/ peavy up down percentage ( 0, 50% or 100% + their combined value will excede more than half of the teams ist 2 players. i am almost positive that would be a winning bet the last 4 years. i have come that far in my thinking, but need to ponder more on this. Putting strategy aside, and just looking at overall value, I think Santana could be the most valuable player in the draft, Peavy could be top 3 just based on impact.



With that being said, it wouldn't make sense to take Johan or Peavy in the top 5 picks because you can get them later, but you wouldn't exactly be burying yourself in a hole either.



I never really bought into the whole "pitchers are a greater risk" theory but there is certainly a bigger variance from numbers from year to year making them less predictable.



As far as Johan is concerned, he's showed he's extremely reliable and dominant, and I'd be surprised if he wasn't at the very least the top 3 most valuable player in 2008.



The theory "lots of pitchers late" applies to hitters as well.



Also you'll notice, when people critique drafts the two cats most people analyze are offensive cats like homers and stolen bases, as if no other categories exist. You never hear, "your whip is going to take a beating". Some people might think that it's hard to predict, probably just as hard to predict homers or rbi's.



Just a thought.
[/QUOTE]You have a good point about whip BUT I think it is the one category out of the 10 we use that moves up or down at the slowest rate. I find if your chasing someone in whip as the season goes on and your still chasing then say good night to that race.. Its sickening how little it moves... On the flip side the non ratio categories or compiler categories are very easy to move in and gain on someone your chasing..
[/QUOTE]Very good point. I agree, chasing ratio is tough. But, you can draft effectively with whip ratio in mind, as well as e.r.a. and strikeouts, take care of those 3 and wins will follow.



Not only that, if you do a really great job paying attention to e.r.a. and whip during the draft, you can take more chances on double start FA pickups throughout the year that increase your Wins and K's. Also, it's much easier IMO to dominate pitching categories than hitting.
"Hit a home run - put your head down, drop the bat, run around the bases, because the name on the front is more - a lot more important than the name on the back."

Ryne Sandberg (my favorite player of all-time)

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Post by The Mighty Men » Tue Apr 01, 2008 10:59 am

Originally posted by Dub:

quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

I think you could win with that team. Agree with Kevin on the handling of your closers, big shocker I disagree with Dub and think you took your next pitchers in the right spot.



I think you prove you can put together a solid and balanced squad doing it, but my big question is do they both stay healthy enough? Sure the trackrecords are as good as most, but pitchers are a fickle bunch. Let me clarify- i think this is a very good team. I just would have liked to have seen Mighty draft a Hill or Dice K or that category of pitcher in the 7th or 8th.
[/QUOTE]Here's an update.



I spent big dough last week in getting both Cueto ($425) and Velez ($375). Yes, I way overbid. For those who said I should have drafted one more SP, add Cueto to the mix and we'll see what happens.
Who is this, robed in splendor, striding forward in the greatness of his strength? “It is I, proclaiming victory, mighty to save.” Isaiah 63:1

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Post by eddiejag » Tue Apr 01, 2008 11:44 am

I love this team and those two pickups will help.

Josh Hamilton went in the early 4th round in my last draft last week.Round 10 is some nice value , you had to like the Thome start.I like a lot of the players on this team and think it can win.
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Post by The Mighty Men » Mon Apr 14, 2008 9:19 am

Originally posted by Hitless:

Hopefully one of your 3 3B work out. Doesn't sound like C Tracy will be ready by opening day so Reynolds could have all the ABs in the early part of the season. Baseball is unpredictable. Who da thunk I'd have 3 good 3B at this point of the year? I can only play two of Crede, Reynolds or Hall (if I do not move Hall to OF). Tough choice.
Who is this, robed in splendor, striding forward in the greatness of his strength? “It is I, proclaiming victory, mighty to save.” Isaiah 63:1

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Post by Raskol » Mon Apr 14, 2008 11:17 am

OK, I have to weigh in. I'm in the same league as Mighty Men, and we are currently 1 and 2 in the standings. He's on top... :mad: but I'm hoping to fix that soon....



Neither of us is winning the pitching points though. :confused:



Go figure.
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Post by The Mighty Men » Tue Jul 15, 2008 3:25 pm

MID-SEASON UPDATE:



Well, the strategy that all the "experts" said could not work is working, so far. At the mid point, team Santana/Peavy is in first place. I did this strategy after Tom Kessenich said in a chat words to the effect that he would never start this way. I'm sure many thought you could not win a league starting SP/SP, either.Here are the standings.



1 The Mighty Men 61.0 59.0 120.0 0.0

2 Moose & Squirrel 56.0 52.0 108.0 0.0

3 It's not easy being Green 46.0 59.0 105.0 0.0



Take a look at my draft from the first post. My hitting has been tremendous. I lead in RBI, and am in the top 3 in HR's and R's. E. Santana, Marcum and Sonnanstine have been great, too. My $400+ Cueto pickup at the beginning of the season has not been good.



It seems to me that it doesn't matter too much who you draft in the first two picks IF you can hit with alot of picks throughout a draft.



Good thing this team is carrying me, because the rest of my teams are not too good.
Who is this, robed in splendor, striding forward in the greatness of his strength? “It is I, proclaiming victory, mighty to save.” Isaiah 63:1

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