1st Rounders- 2009

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Mar 20, 2008 4:54 am

Last year Ryan Braun came from nowhere to be a consensus first round pick this year. Its been seven years since Albert Pujols accomplished the same feat.

I'm not touting the following players as they can just as easily fall flat on their face, but here is my list of players that could be first rounders next year that are not this year.

C Pena- Show me you can do it again was the mentality that made him a third to fifth round pick this year. If he duplicates or exceeds last year, he could be a first rounder.

C Young- He has every tool that Soriano has, only with fresher legs. He'll be hitting first to begin the year and maybe three, four if his power exceeds that of anybody else in the Diamondbacks lineup. Of the players on this list he has the best chance of being a top five pick next year.

Alex Rios- Something happens to Rios in the middle of the year, an injury, he gets lazy, homesickness, I don't know what it is, but if he gets rid of that malaise this year, he could hit the first round next.

Hunter Pence- All the tools and loves the game and it shows on the field. With Berkman and Tejada on the backside of their careers and Biggio gone, he becomes the face of the Houston Astros.

Troy Tulowitzki- I don't know how long it has been since this happened, but the Rockies had four hitters with more home runs than their cleanup hitter last year, not much to do with Tulo but interesting.

He is going to be a monster. 30/100/120/10/.300 is well within reach out of the ss position. By the end of the year he may be positioned between Helton and Holliday. Scary.

Josh Hamilton- You're welcome Jules. Another five tool player who just scalds the ball. Everyone knows the cons that come with the pros, but the kid already has one of the sweetest swings in baseball. He stays on the field for the whole year and he has a chance at being a first rounder next year.

In making this list, I wondered what a pitcher would have to do to be a number one next year. Lets take a lot of fantasy minds wonderdarling, Johnny Cueto. Cueto goes 22-5 and has all the peripherals that go with it. Do you trust him to do it another year? Would you take him over the established Santana? The worst bugaboo is taking ANY pitcher in the first round. Anyway, I digress.

Some borderline picks for me were Weeks, Cano, and Alex Gordon. Anybody else?

Red Sox Nation · Post by **Red Sox Nation** » Thu Mar 20, 2008 5:00 am

Nice list Doughboys.

How about Ian Kinsler? If he stood healthy maybe we could see a .280 110 run 30hr 30sb 75rbi season.

NorCalAtlFan · Post by **NorCalAtlFan** » Thu Mar 20, 2008 5:05 am

I think the 2 listed that have the best shot are Tulo, who was already shooting up the boards and Pence. He has all the tools, we're just taking a wait and see approach. If he can steal a few bags, I think he will be up there. If not, he might just make the move to the 2-3 round area.

Kinsler isn't a bad thought either. But I can't see him surpassing Phillips and Phillips was barely, if at all, a 1st rounder this season after a 30-30 year.

billywaz · Post by **billywaz** » Thu Mar 20, 2008 5:09 am

Johnny Cueto!

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Mar 20, 2008 5:12 am

Good list Dough. a few more ...

Evan Longoria has been mentioned alongside David Wright, seems he'll have a shot with a half+ season of like numbers.

BJ Upton was right on the bubble, he SHOULD be there next season.

Matt Kemp, Corey Hart and Nick Markakis all have good ratios for power and steals, and should hit close to 300. I think each of them in that order of probability could get there.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Mar 20, 2008 5:12 am

Originally posted by Red Sox Nation:

Nice list Doughboys.

How about Ian Kinsler? If he stood healthy maybe we could see a .280 110 run 30hr 30sb 75rbi season. I like Kinsler and thought about him. When I get time I'll do a rant of a post about Rangers Manager Ron Washington, which affects Kinsler's status.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu Mar 20, 2008 5:26 am

For every "new" 1st rounder...a current one gets bumped...who do you see getting the booty bump to the 2nd round or lower, Uncle Dan???

~Lance

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Thu Mar 20, 2008 5:28 am

Delmon. A "Young" sky's the limit talent who may put up Rios' type #'s this year. A he'll get even better slant on top of a .300 20-20-85 season could be a sizemore replacement at the end of rd 1.

LONG GONE · Post by **LONG GONE** » Thu Mar 20, 2008 5:31 am

Uptin and Granderson

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Mar 20, 2008 5:32 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

For every "new" 1st rounder...a current one gets bumped...who do you see getting the booty bump to the 2nd round or lower, Uncle Dan???

~Lance Soriano, Beltran, Braun, Pujols, even Santana with ANY kind of injury come to mind the quickest.

MGBMARTY · Post by **MGBMARTY** » Thu Mar 20, 2008 5:37 am

Hey Dough

Nice thread. Think Tulo and Rios for 1st rounders next year. Rios has 30-30 written all over him and Tulo will now give 4 SS in 1st round where as OF which to me is thin will have Holliday and Rios

Marty

Lost Sailor · Post by **Lost Sailor** » Thu Mar 20, 2008 6:38 am

I don't see Upton making it there when he loses 2B eligibility.

If Peavy duplicates, he may eek his way up to the turn with Santana.

I can see Cano making he way up to the first rd too.

Dub · Post by **Dub** » Thu Mar 20, 2008 7:11 am

Out of the first rounders who is most likely to live up to his consensus selection and who is not? (not looking for exceeding either)

Braun is my pick to most likely flop as he comes to us with a mere 504 lifetime Major League ABs. Anyone who picked him in the first (me) is a little nervous right now and my first rounders historically flop.

Utley most like to hold his value- he does it all from 2B with no flash or fanfare. He is todays version of Ryan Sandberg.

Plymouth · Post by **Plymouth** » Thu Mar 20, 2008 8:24 am

Originally posted by billywaz:

Johnny Cueto!

I might be in a daze but I sure don't see what all the hullabaloo is about with Mr. Johnny Cueto. I just don't see him making much if any contribution to anyones winning fantasy team this year. I could be wrong and if I am I will say so at the end of the season but to this point I don't see him having a big year with the Reds with their current management. But heh, I could be all wet because I just saw that the Nationals released Patterson and I sure did not see that coming.

[ March 20, 2008, 02:37 PM: Message edited by: Plymouth ]

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Thu Mar 20, 2008 8:33 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by Red Sox Nation:

Nice list Doughboys.

How about Ian Kinsler? If he stood healthy maybe we could see a .280 110 run 30hr 30sb 75rbi season. I like Kinsler and thought about him. When I get time I'll do a rant of a post about Rangers Manager Ron Washington, which affects Kinsler's status. [/QUOTE]Looking forward to this...

Kinsler batting 1/2 last year:

74g

294ab

66r

88h

12hr

39rbi

14sb

.299

.390obp

If he comes close to this for full year, easy first rounder next year.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Mar 20, 2008 9:28 am

Originally posted by UFS:

If he comes close to this for full year, easy first rounder next year. good thing he won't

GoBabyGo · Post by **GoBabyGo** » Thu Mar 20, 2008 9:35 am

These are mine:

1) Tulo

2) Cano

3) Hamliton

Sleeper: Justin Upton (Watch and see this guy is better than this brother, mark it!)

NorCalAtlFan · Post by **NorCalAtlFan** » Thu Mar 20, 2008 9:38 am

Cano? You're dreaming. In a perfect world, he tops out at 3rd round.

Tulo, I agree with.

Hamilton, I don't think he gets there either. At his best, what are we looking at , 30-100, .300 with no steals. If he stole some bags, maybe. If Vlad ain't going 1st anymore and that's what Hamilton will top out at, then......

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Thu Mar 20, 2008 9:40 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by UFS:

If he comes close to this for full year, easy first rounder next year. good thing he won't

[/QUOTE]Well, Ian's goals are exactly what Nation posted. And he's met his goals every year so far...

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Mar 20, 2008 9:42 am

Originally posted by UFS:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by UFS:

If he comes close to this for full year, easy first rounder next year. good thing he won't

[/QUOTE]Well, Ian's goals are exactly what Nation posted. And he's met his goals every year so far... [/QUOTE]come talk to me AFTER he hits less than 20 hr's this year

GoBabyGo · Post by **GoBabyGo** » Thu Mar 20, 2008 9:43 am

What do you mean Hamliton will steal at least 20, he is a 30 hr 20 steal guy ala Holliday.

Cano will be better than Utley this year you know why? because he will bag 20 steals this year watch, see his spring numbers, Girardi will have him running. This is his breakout year. As for Upton, if you loved Chris Young we will love Upton even more watch!

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Mar 20, 2008 9:45 am

Originally posted by UFS:

Kinsler batting 1/2 last year:

74g

294ab

66r

88h

12hr

39rbi

14sb

.299

.390obp

If he comes close to this for full year, easy first rounder next year. I have Kinsler lagging B Phillips in BA, HR and SB rates - with Phillips on the 1st rd bubble, Ian seems unlikely. I see 2/3rd round upside.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Mar 20, 2008 9:47 am

John, you are right on about where Kinsler SHOULD be batting in the lineup. Washington's lineups last year look like they had the thoughts of Miss North Carolina at the Miss America pageant.

Kinsler had no less than 60 at bats at four different spots in the lineup last year.

The guy is going to be a fixture as a Ranger, make him a fixture at the one or two spot in the lineup.

Washington's rifts with Teixeira escalated causing Teixeira to not think twice about re-upping with the Rangers. Teixeira or Washington? Hmmm.

When Saltalamacchia came over from the Rangers, he was treated as more of a reserve than the potential star that Salty could turn out to be.

During the off season Washington stated that Saltalamacchia would hit nine if he made the squad. What? Thataway to build some confidence!

Of course, now that he is having a bad spring, Washington and Ranger management will feel fully justified in sending Salty down. Mismanagement.

Now Washington is starting to flip flop on where to hit Hamilton. From a fantasy point of view, it puts a minus in Salty, Kinsler, and Hamiltons column. These kids will flourish, but it will be despite Washington and not because of him.

[ March 20, 2008, 03:55 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Mar 20, 2008 9:47 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

I have Kinsler lagging B Phillips in BA, HR and SB rates - with Phillips on the 1st rd bubble, Ian seems unlikely. I see 2/3rd round upside. something's wrong if you don't have him lagging in rbi's. probably a glitch in your system (ala zambrano)

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu Mar 20, 2008 9:51 am

Holliday steals 20???

Why would he attempt so many steals? He gets caught at a rate he'd need to attempt 30 or so steals to reach 20.

...and considering his MLB best is 14, and add in the fact he's no skinny kid, but rather a 28 year old 6 foot 4 inch 235 pounder hitting in the heart of a nice lineup...you should be HAPPY with 12 steals.

~Lance