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Hey folks-



What do we think about Zimm's hamate surgery thing. Is this going to sap his power or do we think he is worth bidding full value on? There is an obvious difference between 18 hr and 28 hr, I can't decide which is more realistic. I love the guy but I am slightly nervous investing in him. All opinions appreciated. Help me out Rick Wilton.....

Originally posted by Lopi:

Hey folks-



What do we think about Zimm's hamate surgery thing. Is this going to sap his power or do we think he is worth bidding full value on? There is an obvious difference between 18 hr and 28 hr, I can't decide which is more realistic. I love the guy but I am slightly nervous investing in him. All opinions appreciated. Help me out Rick Wilton..... 4 homeruns in spring training...30 this year!!

20-25, but the batting average goes up.

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

20-25, but the batting average goes up. The wind is blowing out this year in Washington!!

19 homeruns.



During Rick Wilton's chat here about a month ago, I asked him in general terms about hand and wrist injuries. I said that if 16-18 months is a fair gauge for TJ surgery before being at full strength, then what is the time frame for wrist and hand injuries. He said 12 months.



Glancing at the Derek Lee and Rickie Weeks of 2007, a year seems like a fair answer. Even Utley didn't return with the same power last year.

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

19 homeruns.



During Rick Wilton's chat here about a month ago, I asked him in general terms about hand and wrist injuries. I said that if 16-18 months is a fair gauge for TJ surgery before being at full strength, then what is the time frame for wrist and hand injuries. He said 12 months.



Glancing at the Derek Lee and Rickie Weeks of 2007, a year seems like a fair answer. Even Utley didn't return with the same power last year. I don't think wrist and hand injuries can be generalized. Wilton must know this. Lee broke his wrist in a collision and Weeks also had a broken wrist (not sure what caused it but it wasn't the hamate).



I have to believe the severity of wrist injuries dictate the recovery time back to 100%. Remember Cliff Floyd's wrist destruction years back ? Took him a LONG LONG time to get back to normal. Doctors said they only saw those types in car accidents.



Im not a Dr but I believe Zimm's bouncing back alot sooner than a Lee or a Weeks.

Fair enough, but his surgery was in November, not that long ago. I wouldn't be surprised if he his homerrun total was dampened this year, I wouldn't expect 30.

Originally posted by Lopi:

Hey folks-



What do we think about Zimm's hamate surgery thing. Is this going to sap his power or do we think he is worth bidding full value on? There is an obvious difference between 18 hr and 28 hr, I can't decide which is more realistic. I love the guy but I am slightly nervous investing in him. All opinions appreciated. Help me out Rick Wilton..... i expect his best year yet in a promising career ....300-.310 avg with 25-28 hr

Very hard for me to see him living up to a 6th round ADP. I see him somewhere between Blalock and Kouzmanoff, 10th-13th round value.

The Big Alameda Machine medical staff tells me that it was the hook of his hammate bone which is more a *minor* wrist injury than a hand injury. At most you can expect a slight (maybe 10%) drop in power compared to what he would have done if healthy. The injury should not be in the same paragraph with Derrek Lee or Rickie Weeks. To put it in a context, the new park will probably help him more than the injury will hurt him.



Also, Zimmerman is such a model of health, you can make two assumptions:



1. He is likely to recover more quickly than other players in the same situation.



2. His excellent general health will help him to not have to make many alterations or at least allow him to make them successfully.



The player is sometimes the worst source for correct injury info, but here are some comments from Zim in his recent Washington Post chat:



"The minor injury is nothing to worry about anymore. I am back to 100 percent and ready to play."



"My wrist is fine! I am 100 percent and ready to go. I don't see my power declining at all this year because of the wrist injury during the offseason."



Combining everything with his spring demonstration, I would think it's pretty much a non-issue.

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Very hard for me to see him living up to a 6th round ADP. I see him somewhere between Blalock and Kouzmanoff, 10th-13th round value. Did you forget the 15 steals Gekko said he wasn't going to get?

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

20-25, but the batting average goes up. Are we talking Zimmerman or Al Gordon

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Very hard for me to see him living up to a 6th round ADP. I see him somewhere between Blalock and Kouzmanoff, 10th-13th round value. Did you forget the 15 steals Gekko said he wasn't going to get? [/QUOTE]You mean his 15 steals over his career 1400+ plate appearances? He stole 11 in '06 with just a 58% success rate, which seems to have led him to steal less last year.

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Very hard for me to see him living up to a 6th round ADP. I see him somewhere between Blalock and Kouzmanoff, 10th-13th round value. Did you forget the 15 steals Gekko said he wasn't going to get? [/QUOTE]You mean his 15 steals over his career 1400+ plate appearances? He stole 11 in '06 with just a 58% success rate, which seems to have led him to steal less last year. [/QUOTE]80% last year!!

I had him as one of the few 160 game players.



That got him to 640 AB's .287 23HR (About the middle of the original question) 6 steals - 100 runs & 103 RBI. 0.355 OBP That works out to top 50 offensive player in my projections. His numbers and Tulowitski's are within a hair across the board, with Tulo getting less AB's. I took Zimmerman in the early sixth and thought I got some value in the pick. If he produces to the upside of skills, Wright less 20 SB, a steal in the sixth.

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Very hard for me to see him living up to a 6th round ADP. I see him somewhere between Blalock and Kouzmanoff, 10th-13th round value. Did you forget the 15 steals Gekko said he wasn't going to get? [/QUOTE]You mean his 15 steals over his career 1400+ plate appearances? He stole 11 in '06 with just a 58% success rate, which seems to have led him to steal less last year. [/QUOTE]80% last year!! [/QUOTE]Exactly, only run when you know you can steal works better for him; and that happens about five times a year.

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Very hard for me to see him living up to a 6th round ADP. I see him somewhere between Blalock and Kouzmanoff, 10th-13th round value. Did you forget the 15 steals Gekko said he wasn't going to get? [/QUOTE]You mean his 15 steals over his career 1400+ plate appearances? He stole 11 in '06 with just a 58% success rate, which seems to have led him to steal less last year. [/QUOTE]80% last year!! [/QUOTE]Exactly, only run when you know you can steal works better for him; and that happens about five times a year. [/QUOTE]Grass Hopper...if you see the future today, you will be on the road of success tomorrow!!

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Very hard for me to see him living up to a 6th round ADP. I see him somewhere between Blalock and Kouzmanoff, 10th-13th round value. I don't know Duke, recent track record really favors Zimm. 2 years of really solid BANKABLE #'s. Blalock can't say that and Kouz can't yet either. I think (.290 25-95-90 5sb) from a corner is just what you're looking for from your 6th rounder.

Originally posted by Sheep:

I had him as one of the few 160 game players.



That got him to 640 AB's .287 23HR (About the middle of the original question) 6 steals - 100 runs & 103 RBI. 0.355 OBP That works out to top 50 offensive player in my projections. His numbers and Tulowitski's are within a hair across the board, with Tulo getting less AB's. I took Zimmerman in the early sixth and thought I got some value in the pick. If he produces to the upside of skills, Wright less 20 SB, a steal in the sixth. If Zimmerman was playing in COL, and hitting in that lineup, I could see comparable stats with the exception of steals. As is, I see Tulo taking it hands down in 4 of 5 cats, trailing only in RBI which is a function of batting in the 2 hole. A slight downgrade for 3b vs SS is in order too, widening the value gap a little more.

Another Q & A from the Post chat:



Washington, D.C.: I took you in my fantasy league, so if you could bump up your stolen base total that would be great.



Ryan Zimmerman: I'm not sure if my speed got a lot better in the offseason but I will try.

Originally posted by Quahogs:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Very hard for me to see him living up to a 6th round ADP. I see him somewhere between Blalock and Kouzmanoff, 10th-13th round value. I don't know Duke, recent track record really favors Zimm. 2 years of really solid BANKABLE #'s. Blalock can't say that and Kouz can't yet either. I think (.290 25-95-90 5sb) from a corner is just what you're looking for from your 6th rounder. [/QUOTE]Guess I'm in the minority of some good thinkers on Zim, maybe I missed on this one but ...



contact rate: Blalock 83 vs Zimm 81



hr per ab: Blalock better than both of Zimm's years in 4 of his 5 seasons; call it even based on age difference



sb attempts: Blalock edge last yr, Zimm edge previously; call it even



park: Blalock=hitters, Zimm=pitchers to neutral

lineup: Texas=high-scoring, Wash=below avg



round selected: Blalock 11, Zimm 6



I'll take my chances on the 11th rounder!

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by Sheep:

I had him as one of the few 160 game players.



That got him to 640 AB's .287 23HR (About the middle of the original question) 6 steals - 100 runs & 103 RBI. 0.355 OBP That works out to top 50 offensive player in my projections. His numbers and Tulowitski's are within a hair across the board, with Tulo getting less AB's. I took Zimmerman in the early sixth and thought I got some value in the pick. If he produces to the upside of skills, Wright less 20 SB, a steal in the sixth. If Zimmerman was playing in COL, and hitting in that lineup, I could see comparable stats with the exception of steals. As is, I see Tulo taking it hands down in 4 of 5 cats, trailing only in RBI which is a function of batting in the 2 hole. A slight downgrade for 3b vs SS is in order too, widening the value gap a little more. [/QUOTE]Agree that I would take SS before 3B, if stats were within a hair. I do think their raw numbers are almost interchangable. I might be low on Tulo and high on Zimm, but my only projected difference is a couple SB, don't see it as "hands down". I am certainly not intending to dish Tulo as have him as a Top 50 offensive player too.



If Zimmerman were playing in COL, in that lineup, I would be taking him before Tulo.

My number are obviously very different, for your amusement, here we go - Tulo v Zimmerman.



BA 305 280

HR 34 24

SB 16 5

R 118 87

RB 83 96



I have Tulo in 7 of my 8 NFBC lges, anyone else see him reaching these numbers?

If Tulo reaches those levels, he is a top 7 pick!! I think the BA might be a tad high. The HR's maybe 6-7 too high. Runs I can see. Rbi's, may be a little lower, but I can see those numbers. Steals are a few too much as well.

I think you're in the ballpark, I just think those are a bit overly optimistic. But if he does indeed reach them, wow!!

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by Quahogs:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Very hard for me to see him living up to a 6th round ADP. I see him somewhere between Blalock and Kouzmanoff, 10th-13th round value. I don't know Duke, recent track record really favors Zimm. 2 years of really solid BANKABLE #'s. Blalock can't say that and Kouz can't yet either. I think (.290 25-95-90 5sb) from a corner is just what you're looking for from your 6th rounder. [/QUOTE]Guess I'm in the minority of some good thinkers on Zim, maybe I missed on this one but ...



contact rate: Blalock 83 vs Zimm 81



hr per ab: Blalock better than both of Zimm's years in 4 of his 5 seasons; call it even based on age difference



sb attempts: Blalock edge last yr, Zimm edge previously; call it even



park: Blalock=hitters, Zimm=pitchers to neutral

lineup: Texas=high-scoring, Wash=below avg



round selected: Blalock 11, Zimm 6



I'll take my chances on the 11th rounder! [/QUOTE]What does contact rate mean to you? Do you think he makes better contact with the ball as in less swings and misses?