Jack's Flash - Baseball Betting 101

[Jackstraw]

So far into the season, these are my results:

3/24 BOS -163 (W)

3/24 BOS 9- O even (W)

3/25 OAK +105 (W)

3/25 OAK 9- U even (W)

3/30 ATL -169 (L)

3/31 DET -225 (L)

3/31 SEA -185 (W)

3/31 ATL -150 (L)

3/31 NYY -155 (ppd)

3/31 MIL +132 (W)

3/31 SD -150 (W)



I grouped yesterday’s home teams with high expectations together. I promoted that idea, and I took a hit. If the Yankees had played there is a chance that I would have broken even. There were certainly moments in the two losers where I was on the edge of my seat pulling for players on other people’s fantasy teams!!! Oh, what we have to do to play…



Anyway, no excuses… They should have been solid picks, but Verlander is on someone else’s team and I have both McLouth and McCann on teams. Just wish I had grabbed Nady somewhere.



Now, I didn’t group San Diego in the power-house with high expectations teams, but I think there is good argument that they could be there. They looked very good at using their field and racking up hits on Oswalt. What swayed me on the bet was Peavy for -150. We all have lots of experience in here touting what a player is worth and what is their ADP. We all know that Peavy is in the top two pitchers. Oswalt is pretty high up there too, but it wasn’t his home turf. Peavy, -150, at home, was the lock of the day. Several years ago, Peavy would have been Randy Johnson and he would have been a minimum of -200. It shows that Peavy hasn’t exactly made his presence known to the outside world yet. We all know him very, very well. The only information you needed to win this bet was fantasy information.



The second notable is the Milwaukee bet. It was a great dog bet. I hope that no one thought that I was pointing to Chicago as one of those power-house teams, because they ain’t. No offense, but Reed Johnson shows that they aren’t confident in Pie. Going after Roberts shows that they aren’t happy with DeRosa and/or Theriot. And then you have to question Wood as the closer until he gets a few saves under his belt. Another one from fantasy information only - much higher draft picks on the Brewers than on the Cubs. Throw Zambrano, Sheets, Gagne, and Wood out of the equation and look at the hitters. The Brewers line-up as a dog against the Cubs… I don’t think so!



I also parlayed Seattle and Milwaukee, which was a sweet little present to help keep me out of the hole for the day.



Okay, so the losses… There is no credibility without discussing the losses. First, Detroit. I’m sure there are a lot of owners out there wondering how in the world they lost that game. I wonder too. On paper, Detroit was a flat-out winner. No way around it. They really had the most to prove besides the Yankees and the Braves yesterday in winning. One of two things happened here. Detroit really isn’t that good and they couldn’t stand up to the pressure of crushing the hapless Royals on Opening Day after they had made the moves for Dontrelle, Cabrera, and Renteria. Or, KC may just be decent. Pay attention to these two teams before betting on them for awhile. The karma isn’t right. I have a feeling that the Tigers are good, but the Royals aren’t bad. This is a sign of parity appearing in the leagues. Parity is important in betting on baseball. Keep that in mind. It will play into the picture as the season goes along as part of the economics of gambling.



The Atlanta losses are a big sign of something wrong in Atlanta’s house. Sunday was an exhibition game for them. Chipper went to the plate with the same look that Big Papi had in Tokyo. The Braves basically played the same way at the plate. The only guy in Boston happy about the game seemed to be Dice-K. The only guy from Atlanta Sunday night that appeared serious was Hudson. I say stock up on both Dice-K and Hudson; stock down on Ortiz and Chipper. Anyway, Sunday… The real story is don’t bet with your heart. Keep the heartaches on the field.



Atlanta’s loss last night was a much more miserable experience than the one the night before. Maybe the flight bogged them down, but that’s a short flight. For the traveling elite that should have been a cake-walk. There were flashes of hope for the Braves. But there were a lot of dark spots too. Francouer is not a good player, and I’m very disappointed that the fans are getting attached to him here like they are. Francouer could cost us a lot of wins. That first pitch swinging can’t last. If I’m pitching, I’m putting the first one in the dirt because he is going to swing at it! Now it seems Chipper wants to do the same thing. That’s what got Andruw his job… He just went up with whatever attitude that he wanted and swung for the fences.



LA fans, you are going to be sorely disappointed. If Pierre was a bad decision, Andruw was worse. Just watch. Where everyone wants to believe that players are out there to do the best they can and win every game, Andruw has a different outlook. Just watch.



On Atlanta, Kansas City, and Detroit, I would leave betting on them alone for awhile. There are some questions surrounding them that need to be answered before you start spending your money. Also, don't go betting on the Yankees today because this is the new Opening Day. Fate would have it that Opening Day was rained out in Yankee Stadium. Today is not the opener anymore. It is just the day they get to play the rescheduled game. It's not a good match-up and its out of flow.



So here are the golden rules in betting baseball:

1. You can't separate reality from the game.

2. Don't bet with your fan strings.

and, for good measure and just to get the obvious out of the way,

3. Don't bet just to be betting.