Jack's Flash - FAABulous Sunday!

[Jackstraw]

Here we go, one of the make or break weeks in the year! Week 4 is almost behind us, and that pretty much puts a wrap on the first month of the season. This week gives you a good idea of where your team will be competing from for the rest of the season. This is the new starting point.



It’s like taking a jar of water and pouring some dirt in it. Shake the jar up really good now. It is just one big swirling mess of dirty water at first, but after a few moments the dirt begins to settle to the bottom. As more time passes, more dirt settles.



The baseball season is no different. Opening Day in Japan was where Selig put the lid on the jar and shook it really hard the first time. After a couple of more shakes, he set the jar down on the Real Opening Day. There are still a few lighter particles that haven’t reverted to the expected norm just yet, but they will.



Where your team is right now in the standings is most likely a good measure of how good your team really is. Forget about using slow-starter and DL excuses, now is the time to take a good look at what you have. If you’re happy right now, then hold your money. If you are in a bad spot, you need to start thinking about what the next best move is.



Over the next two weeks, one of three things is going to happen.



A) Your ship is going to just keep on sailing, full steam ahead, at the top of your league, and you are going to stay in the upper half of the overall standings.

B) You are going to keep running at the same pace.

C) Your team is going to start dropping off.



There are only three paths, and you don’t want to take the last two. If your team looks like it is in the last two, then you gotta find a way to get into category A. If you go many more weeks with a slumping or average lineup then the above average performers are going to leave you behind. At the end of May if you are in the same position, you are pretty much running on honor and integrity.



The first area of focus is the hitters. There isn’t much to be said here since most of the good hitters are already taken. If you are in the Main Event or mixed auction leagues then there may still be some hot bats and guys who get regular playing time on the FA list. Get ‘em while you can, because they won’t last much longer and all you will have left is hopeful call-ups and someone who gets on a hot streak. In the AL and NL-only leagues, it is going to be dry for awhile. Your only hopes are injuries, cross-league trades, and call-ups.



Now in the AL leagues you will see a lot of bidding this week on Rajai Davis. He has the potential of getting a lot of stolen bases. But you need to keep in mind what his future is with that team before you sell the farm.



The next area of focus is the closing situation. This week we saw the first change of the guard. Brian Fuentes will be closing in Colorado from here on out. With his previous experience I would expect him to hold that job. Corpas is still too inexperienced to have the fortitude of closing. For you guys that are hurting in saves, Fuentes is the first closer that should actually garner a big $ bid. With the news on Rafael Soriano not getting much better, Manny Acosta should be owned in every league known to man. Finally, you guys who bought up Seattle closer-hopefuls… Don’t give up just yet. Putz hasn’t exactly been stellar in his return. Moylan owners might as well count that money gone and free up a spot on their bench. If he does make it back, it will be a long, long time.



Last, but certainly not least, the starting pitchers. If your team has got an ERA above 4.00 right now, you had better start learning how to evaluate pitchers or you are going to be in a really rough spot later in the season. ERA is much harder to control than other categories like WHIP and K’s. The pitchers who keep putting up high ERA’s will eventually rack up a pretty heavy number of pitches thrown which will effect the total number of innings they pitch. The lower the number of innings pitched the more drastic effect bad outings have on your categories.



In the end the best advice is to find a way to maximize your number of opportunities early in the season so that disruptions to the flow later on don’t sink your battleship. The first thing to look at is getting the most number of at-bats out of your lineup each week. If you have guys that aren’t getting regular playing time, then you need to upgrade them. Hitters who play 3-4 games a week are only effective in AL and NL-only leagues. The second thing to look at is optimizing the number of innings pitched. But this doesn’t mean go get a bunch of starters. Look for guys that are maintaining a low ERA or low number of pitches thrown while putting up solid performances. Whatever you do, avoid anyone that has already experienced an injury this season. Guys, like Kazmir, who have yet to start a game, I wouldn’t worry about. Their season hasn’t really started yet and it is tough to say. Now Bedard owners (of which I am one), don’t be swayed by the start last night. He has already had an injury. Don’t give up on him, but definitely keep your eye open for someone to fill his role in case he goes down again.



Finally, it isn’t time to start chasing strikeouts just yet. If you have to resort to that tactic, it is better to wait until later in the season. Otherwise you may end up with an astronomical ERA and WHIP that can’t ever be recovered from because there just isn’t enough innings in a season.