Jack's Flash - Value vs. Worth

[Jackstraw]

Gekko posted what he saw was the FAAB value on the three hottest pickups for the coming week. While a lot of people probably don’t think this is a good topic to bring up since it could possibly inflate the values for these players, it still helps people to see part of the analysis that is needed to put a value on players. Knowing their values is very important to being competitive in your league.



There is another concept that ties into value that should be discussed in helping people to determine how much they should actually spend on a player on FAAB Sunday.



Worth = the amount a customer is willing to pay



We tend to discuss value here quite a bit, and sometimes the discussion uses the two terms interchangeably. While in a generic sense this use of the words is fine, some of the more heated discussions would be better off if there was a little more differentiation between the two.



I think The Mighty Men said it best in one of his posts. He said that if there was someone that he really wanted then he would pay as much as he needed to get that player.



When Gekko posted his projected values he wasn’t inflating any prices on these players. He just came out and gave his evaluation on what he saw the player’s value to be due to the situation for Scherzer, Clement, and Balentein. I’m guessing that his value system was probably based on every owner in the NFBC having $1000 left.



Suppose that you are in a league where most people have already spent a significant amount of their FAAB$, what is the value of that player then? If there isn’t anyone with $250 left in that league, then there is no way that Scherzer will sell for $250. So every owner needs to look at the estimated value and adjust based on the amount of money left in the league. That will establish the player’s value in a particular league.



The second thing that needs to be done is for every owner to evaluate their own needs. Take Scherzer again, since he seems to be the major topic on every baseball website. If your team is suffering massively in K’s, then your need for Scherzer becomes a little more extreme. In other words, his worth to you becomes more. Now if your team isn’t hurting in K’s, but you need to get some wins, then Scherzer’s worth to you will be less based on what Gekko’s analysis was.



In other words, VALUE is a flat amount based on the player’s performance, situation, and the overall public perception of him. WORTH is how much you are willing to pay for that player’s performance and situation to fit a need on your team.



Another good example of this is at the draft. There are many people that take the ADP report and establish what a player’s value is based on where he is being drafted across different leagues. This gives a really good market report for the player, but many owners don’t realize that ADP is just the perceived value of that player by the public. In absence of a really good set of evaluations for your team, the ADP report becomes a decent substitute for drafting. On the other hand, if you have a good set of evaluations and a strategy for the season then you are probably going to be drafting more on what a player’s worth is to you.



Many people come on and criticize about people drafting someone a couple of rounds higher than in other leagues. They also complain about other owners who let a guy whose ADP is 3.5 get drafted at 5.12. To me, it doesn’t really matter what the ADP is because I am focused on building a particular team. Where the player falls in the draft will be based on the ADP value but they are also drafted based on what that player’s worth is to a particular team. If he gets drafted lower than the ADP then his worth to the league owners was just a little lower, that’s all.



For instance, in my Chicago 1 league I drafted out of the 2-hole. I had very little doubt as to who I was going to take in the first three rounds when I started because I had a set strategy and the ADP. Mr. Bedard was a big part of that strategy. According to all of the ADP reports that I had seen prior to the Main Event draft, Bedard would be available to me in the second round and could possibly be there around the turn in the third. However, it didn’t turn out this way. Bedard got snatched up mid-2nd round and when the pick got me at 2.14 I was left trying to decide what to do next. I just went ahead and snagged up Brandon Webb rather than try to adjust my strategy on the fly that early in the draft. At the end of the first two rounds, the big 4 SP’s were gone. All of them, except for maybe Santana, went slightly higher than their ADP. I went in thinking there might be a small chance to get Peavy at 2.14, so I thought Bedard would be there for sure.



This isn’t a sign that no one knew what they were doing. Rather it was a good sign that a lot of people sat down at the table with a strategy in mind and had established their own player worth.



So today when you sit down and wrap up your bids, keep in mind what the public’s view is on the value of a particular player. But more importantly, decide for yourself what that player is worth to your team and bid accordingly.