Tales from the Middle of the Pack

[Edwards Kings]

OK. I am being generous to myself. The title should read “Tales from Somewhere South of the Middle of the Pack.” Artistic license if you will. It does not change the fact that most of us are not where we want to be in the standings and are wracking our little brains on how to improve our position, figure out who is going to rebound and who to avoid because they have been playing over their head. Anyway, there has not been too much chatter on the boards lately, so I thought I would put a few of my brain burps out there for a few laughs.



By the way…here is a little wish that I hope will come out of the increased exposure for the high stakes leagues. I am so very tired of having to discount what I read from most of the sites for the fact that I cannot trade and the fact that most of the local leagues have full-time offensive players, Number 3 starters, and key set-up men readily available. Even though the Main is a mixed league with only 60% penetration to MLB rosters (actually a little less since many of us have minor leaguers or DL’s on our reserves), any site that uses phrases like “Rookie Jay Bruce may be flying under the radar in your league and might be worth a flyer” is pretty much worthless to me. And many of the sites appear to be at that level. I want to see more content targeted at NFBC style, high stakes competitions. A boy has got to have dreams, doesn’t he?



Anyway, looking at what is right about my team (very few things) and what is wrong with my team (too many things) now we have enough stats to make some analysis meaningful, I first looked back at my offensive (in more ways than one) drafting strategy. I went into the draft trying to get a well balanced team focusing on outfield. I thought the OF this year was as thin as I can remember. I also wanted an anchor at middle and corner while targeting some of my middle round picks on upside picks.



What worked? I fooled myself into picking Utley with the seventh pick overall leaving guys like Cabrera, Santana, and Crawford to be snapped up later. Let’s put a big check mark here as Utley sure has exceeded expectations. One caveat though. I was at the Ted Sunday, June 8th, and to me, Utley looked tired. It was 100+ degrees I think on the field, so anyone would wilt, but he almost had two errors on easy ground balls and just looked sluggish. I hope Charlie Manuel gives him some days off as you know he will not get a break at All-Star time. If not, look for a “slump”. Likewise, my other MI picks have been good especially where I got them. Orlando Hudson (15th round) and Yuniesky Betancourt (21st and I was the next to the last player to pick a SS in my league). Both are down on my speed projections and Betancourt has not shown even the modest power I had hoped for, but neither is more than one hot week from making up the delta. BA and the other counting stats are at or better than expected. As with everything else, barring injuries, I see my MI exceeding expectations, mainly due to Utley’s MVP year. I do expect Utley to fade a bit, but see Hudson and Betancourt as surgers and at least one will move past the likely faders like Uggla, Tejada, Young, DeRosa, Theriot, Weeks, Guzman, and Escobar in the positional rankings.



I am not too unhappy with CM either. I got my anchor in steady Aramis Ramirez with the seventh pick of the third round, which is about where you would expect him to go. Still just 29 years old, he is the kind of player you just pencil in and let go. His average and counting stats (he even stole a base) is fine. Power is down, but again, one hot week and you are back on track. I got Conor Jackson in the 13th and I like this pick. Even with the missed time, he is at or better in all counting stats to my projections and his BA is sweet so far. Which is good as I burned my 11th round pick on Blalock. Even before he got hurt, he was providing little more than BA. I really drank the contract year Kool-Aide on this one. If he can come back from his carpal tunnel, bad hammie, anal fissure, strained quad, club foot, dandruff, and chronic halitosis and give me three months of what he was able to do last September, this could still be a plus. Big if. Until last weeks 0-16, Mike Lamb was an OK replacement. Now I have Millar keeping the position warm, so hopefully I will not lose too much ground in the CM projections until AmRam gets hot and Blalock gets healthy (it COULD happen!). Actually, when Chipper gets hurt, Reynolds, Youkilis, Crede, DeRosa, and Cantu fade (and they will) I should end up with two top 15 CM (AmRam and Jackson), not counting what I hope is a hot finish by Blalock.



What didn’t work? My OF reeks and it may be a case of “I’ve fallen and I can’t get up!” I used some primo picks for most of my OFers like Vlad Guerrero (2nd round), Bobby Abreu (4th), Brad Hawpe (7th) and Jermaine Dye (8th). Three veterans who I thought were not too old to produce quality stats and one up-and-comer. No speed to speak of except for Abreu, but lots of BA and other counting stats potential. People have been on Abreu because he is down in is SB category, but it hasn’t impacted me because I am trying to take full advantage of the fact you cannot get less than one point from SB. His runs are down (not necessarily his fault), but his power (HR and RBI) are up from where I projected him to be and his BA is nearly spot on. Dye likewise is about a wash. He still strikes out too much, but if he proves to be a 2H player like last year, he will easily make up ground as right now I have him under my run-rate projections for HR and RBI, but not by too much. That is the best news I have on the OF and that is not good news. I need these guys to exceed expectations so I can make up some the points I am not getting in SB. Guerrero is playing like he has been hurt more than has been broadcast lately. His stats are down across the board radically especially in BA. This decline should not be age related, though you never know with players from the DR. It scares me that he is hitting so poorly at home which was not the case 2005 – 2007. The team is winning without him, so that is good for them, not good for me. He COULD turn his year around, but I do not think I like the odds. Hawpe has been horrible. He is digging the biggest hole my team has to crawl out of this year. I was counting on him for 30+ HR and 100+ RBI with a solid .280+ BA. Needless to say he is well off those marks. He also was a 2H player last year (which also was a small part of my draft strategy since I have faded badly every September), but I may have gone to that well too much. My fifth outfielder I drafted mainly to give me support in Runs Scored with good BA. David DeJesus is feeling KC’s inability to score as much as anyone, but his HR numbers are up, he should hit double digits in SB, and is not too far off in RBI projections. So goes KC, so goes DeJesus, but I do not think he is a good candidate for 100 runs anymore, especially given that he missed so many games early. Still, not too bad for a 19th round pick. In short, I am disappointed in my OF as a whole right now. But I am stuck with them as my friends (let’s call them the “Minnows”) have pretty much picked the FA pool clean. In case you didn’t notice, Shin-Soo Choo (God Bless You!) was picked up in at least six main event teams this last week including me. Not much of an investment for me at $1, but I wish CLE would let this kid play because I think he can. He will never hit 30 in the majors, but he could help in all categories.



I hope I do not have any OF faders as in most cases, in order to fade any more than they already have, they would have to start digging. I do think we have seen the best of the likes of Ludwick, Damon, Nady, Drew, Werth, and Bay, but Hamilton, Ellsbury, and McLouth are re-writing the OF rankings legitimately.



What else didn’t work? I have Ramon Hernandez (16th) and Kenji Johima (10th) at catcher. I wasn’t looking for much here at this position, but thought I had drafted a couple who would get me 10-15 HR, bat .275, have 60+ Runs and 60+ RBIs each. Both are down on my projections across the board and Hernandez may be losing AB’s. Not much out there in FA land that have as much upside, so I am hoping for a Shandleresque regression to the mean. As bad as the catcher position has been this year for most of us (kudos to you Soto/Benjie Molina owners out there), I think it is only going to get worse. There are some OLD catchers out there who are fading fast and I do not see many teams rushing to replace them.



Once again I have failed to get a solid UT player. I did think I had found one in the 24th round. Let’s see…look for a guy with good underlying skills against at least RHers. Check. Look for a guy who has been blocked at his position by a high priced veteran. Check. Look for a guy hitting in a hitters park. Check. If that ballpark is Arlington, make sure he is left-handed. Check. Make sure he is not too old. 31. Check. If he is coming off a bad year that looks like an outlier, so much the better. Check. Meet Ben Broussard. Or should that be Hasbeen Broussard. Make sure you drop him after 54 AB’s of BA below .170. Check. I have run a host of poor choices through my UT spot this year, including my only “SB Threat” Ryan Freel who I had in for 41 AB with no SB. I hope that when Blalock comes back, I can put Millar there. I am actually hoping that. Isn’t that sad. I have Choo (if Guerrero and Hawpe rebound) and Clement who would fit there if they play, and except for BA, I haven’t dug too much of a hole yet as my projections for this roster spot were very modest.



It is clear I missed the boat on SB, but I had hoped to still get mid-50’s in batting points. I am not even close with 37.5 points and the hole I have dug in Runs Scored may be too deep to climb out of, but I am still trying. Time will tell.



Just my ramblings. Hope it gives you a minute or two of distraction. I’ll do my pitchers later.



[ June 10, 2008, 01:07 PM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

[Quahogs]

Wayne,



should have named the header Tales from the Crypt By no means do I mean the team is dead however.



Nice write !

[Sheep]

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

A boy has got to have dreams, doesn’t he?



Time will tell.



Hope it gives you a minute or two of distraction. Nice write-up from Wayne about being middle of the pack. I would like to nominate my team as the “NFBC average team” as I am middle of the pack – 193rd after 10 weeks. First of all I was optimistic thus my team name “Top of Third in Chicago” and I am currently in a three way tie for 7th-9th (very middle of the pack) and our league has the current overall leader – Masters of the Midway. (Rob’s team does look nice but how could a team leading the NFBC look too bad?)



As “NFBC average team”:

I am playing in multiple leagues (and not in the money in any).

Have had good success (won money) in Local leagues.

Have played in Main event and Satellites in the past.

Have won some money here, but have a net loss.



I certainly agree with Edward Kings that general fantasy news is not intended for NFBC players. My home league is hosted at CBS and here are some owned/started numbers from my roster Juan Pierre (67/49), Milledge (43/24), Millar (26/19), Iannetta (21/14), Coco Crisp (17/6) & Rich Hill (22/3).



I will say that my hitting is right around where I was expecting to be after 10 weeks. My pitching has been awful – which seems to be the curse of the average team.



What needs to work for the balance of the season to get me to the “Top of the Third in Chicago”? A combination of my team doing better and those above me falling off. Currently I have 82 points, including 57 in hitting. So I need to get another 30 points (112 should put me in contention). Spitting them between hitting and pitching – 72 in hitting seems unrealistic but we need goals. Three reasons that my 57 will fall – Chipper / Zimmerman (How long will he be off?) / B. Molina. Why my 57 will increase – Delmon Young is on pace for 2.5 HR, Crawford .270 (first round), Clement (20% of FAAB). Biggest offensive issue is power numbers.



Injuries to players like Ortiz & Weeks will take tolls on others rosters. Also I have trouble believing that Utley, Berkman & Uggla will continue at current rates. Are Ludwick & McLouth going to regress? Aren’t Bradley & Drew overdue for their summer vacations? Wasn’t Pujols suppose be done for the season by now?



On the pitching side 25 points – the least I can get is 5 and one of the teams in my league is throwing saves so 6 is my absolute bottom. 40 points (an increase of 15) isn’t likely to be enough. With B. Wilson (only good pitching pick of my draft) and Soriano (I have him 4 NFBC leagues) I am a long way back and to get above 10 rank points, I will need a healthy Soriano and another 10 weeks (approximately) of third closer. My K’s are solid (2nd) – 6.74/9IP as I have been using 8 SP with Soriano on the DL. That accounts for 14 of my 25 rank points, and saves make up most of the rest.



I built my team by taking hitters first so I knew that pitching would challenged and took pitchers 8-12th round. AJ Burnett (4.98 ERA /1.5 whip), Bonderman (out for season-in three of my leagues), Jerad Weaver (4.79) & Lilly (5.23) along with Soriano. To compete I need half off my starting pitchers to throw like Webb or Volquez for the rest of the season. The back end of my staff should do better with Free Agents then Zito (5.83) & Gorzelanny (6.83) did before they got cut.



Even the "average team" can dream.

[Edwards Kings]

The second half of the equation is pitching. What can you say about my pitching? I do not have the empirical evidence, but I agree with what was posted here earlier and that is those of us that made reasonably informed pitching choices where too many have not panned out is probably the main reason for sitting in the standings way below contention or respectability. Like before, I look at my staff beginning with “The Plan” for the 2008 Main Event Draft. I generally and continually believe that there is good pitching to be had in the middle rounds and that the front end (the first 10 rounds) needs to be dominated by offense. With that in mind, I look to leave the first third of the draft with two or three pitchers, including one closer. If someone I think is crazy good falls to me, I would be flexible, but as we all know, it is really hard to get great value (i.e. someone slips more than a round or two) in the top 10 rounds.



My first pitcher was my closer, Francisco Rodriguez. He has had some control problems so his WHIP is only good, but he has only given up runs in four of the ten weeks and most of those way back in Week 2, so put a big smiley face on this one. And I was nervous. I used this strategy last year and got Putz, so I was feeling a bit snake bit. I was going to pick a second tier closer in the early middle rounds, but I kept feeling they were too risky and that someone better overall was available, so I did not pick up a second closer. BIG MISTAKE. I missed out on the likes of Lidge, Wilson, Wood, and Sherrill. I did spend $150 bucks on Acosta who despite this last week, has given me three saves and three vulture wins. I really think Atlanta has misused him, but I think (especially after last night) his usefulness to me is about done. Eddie Guardado? Paging Eddie Guardado? I know…he is a long shot as long as Wilson is pitching as well as he has been, but I just have this feeling. I did try to get Wheeler who went undrafted in our league, but was beat out on a tie bid with my friend Patrick (GLU). It would not have saved my team, but right now it looks like Wheeler could have helped. Still, I will continue to follow the shaky bullpen situations in Chicago (AL), Cleveland, and Tampa Bay. I see Sherrill, Gregg, Hoffman, and Francisco Cordero as faders so I will be watching them (or their set-up men) too.



Well, at least I have my starting pitching. Boy, those boobs in Orlando #1 really let me steal some talent there! What were they drinking? This is all, of course, self-deprecating humor, because my starting staff is in a shambles. First, some good. Though he took way too long to come back from what was supposedly some minor stiffness, Scott Kazmir (any Mets fans out there?) has been golden as my sixth round pick. He was my first starter taken (I was going to take Webb in the fifth, but Ira Kerker and Son got him two picks before me). I only have seven starts out of him so far, but if you take out his first start in Boston, which wasn’t so bad, he has given up only four earned runs in six games with 39 K’s in the same period. What is not to like.



But an Ace ain’t nuttin without a sold #2 and #3. To plan, I took a third pitcher (it worked out to be the 9th round) as one of my picks in the first 10 rounds and selected Brett Myers. As my daughter would say “OMG!” What a dog! I sat him only once so far because of my hope he will turn it around (and of course that start was his best of the year versus Houston), but the control and long-ball issues are killing me. I see him through tainted glasses as a surger, but I hope it does not come too late. My number 3, picked I thought in a good round (12th) is Brad Penny. I did not expect ’07 again, but I did not expect the ’08 version. I knew he would be, at best, be only OK in the K department, but he has just been awful. Early on I forgave him two 4-run innings versus the Padres (no extra base hits in those two innings…all singles), but then the wheels really fell off. I had benched him, but using those same glasses, I see him as a surger so I am gambling (what do I have to lose) and put him back in. Grienke (14th), Buerhle (17th) and Baker (18th) were supposed to be solid middle rotation filler. And for the most part, they have. Grienke is fading so I hope he is not hurt. Baker is back and he will be a great help (though the 1-K game last night is concerning) and Buerhle is Buerhle (please, not matches please because this guy is one spark from an exploding gas can).



A little free advice. I someone offers you the choice of either the “Boof Bonser Workout Tape” or a punch in the mouth, take the hit. Early I was a real believer that he had turned the corner. Like the Twinkies, I have given up on him. Unlike the Twinkies, Bonser is no longer on my team. I am pleased with the choice of Randy Wolf as my 23rd round pick. He has given me two bad weeks out of ten and while I do not think he will keep up his strike-out rate (9 K’s per 10 IP), his control (3:1 K/BB ratio) is excellent. The Padres have been no support, but I hadn’t expected they would be. My last starter is Dana Eveland (27th). The control issues have come back (big surprise) so right now he is riding the pine, but early (when I did not have him in) he had a golden run and could have another. I see lots of faders coming up in the second half including Volquez (I am a believer, but he ain’t that good…yet), Cliff “Clavine” Lee, Ervin Santana, Dempster, Wellemeyer, and Mussina. Sabathia, Oswalt, Harang, Myers, Penny, Wandy Rodriguez, and Arroyo will see (or continue to see) upside as we move past the All-Star Break.



Just thoughts.



[ June 11, 2008, 12:24 PM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

[sportsbettingman]

Good stuff, Wayne!



LONG way to go...and the weather is starting to heat up...maybe your team will along with it!



I'm hoping mine does!



~Lance

[Edwards Kings]

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Good stuff, Wayne!



LONG way to go...and the weather is starting to heat up...maybe your team will along with it!



I'm hoping mine does!



~Lance Thanks, Lance. Good luck to you too, but with your pitching staff, I think you will be a contender. I mean, if your staff is strong enough to sit Wandy Rodriguez for a HOME start, you are pretty deep.

[Edwards Kings]

Originally posted by Quahogs:

Wayne,



should have named the header Tales from the Crypt By no means do I mean the team is dead however.



Nice write ! Thanks, Stephen. Your team is awesome especially considering you took Granderson, Weeks, Gallardo, and Hughes (and to a certain extent, Cain) in your first 11 picks. You must be a hell of a manager to be in 2nd place overall. The fact that we have a few players in common (Jackson, Wolf, Baker, Eveland) gives me some hope that I might be able to climb up a bit. Good luck!

[Edwards Kings]

Good write-up Mr. Sheep. Hope your pitching staff turns around, and I hope we both get value out of Clement...soon!

[mdz129]

Ed,



This is a Marathon --just like steering the Titanic--the team which can avoid the icebergs (injuries)and use alot of their fuel (FAAB Money) on the right players will finish ahead of the pack. A great draft is only the beginning of the race -- the pieces you add ( and subtract like I dropped Ryan Braun last year in week 1) make all the difference in your place in God's Baseball Order.



As for your opinions on who surges, fades, or stays status quo -- that is what makes a market -- buyers and sellers -- free agent drops and pickups. I hope you're wrong on Damon, Bay, Werth, Wellemeyer, C Lee, K. Lohse, etc, but time will tell.



I'm 59th overall, with Arod, Tulo, R Martin, Weeks, Tejeda, C. Young(SD), R Hill, Bay, Valerde, Wang for top 10 picks --lots of holes there, but with FAAB picked up C Lee, Wellemayer, Lohse, Danks, Litsch, JJ Reyes, Werth and J Hairston(looked good until broken thumb)--basically my 70% of my pitching staff were wire additions. Hmmmm... I should only draft hitting in the 1st 10 rounds next yr.



Good Luck and let's enjoy the summer.



Michael

[Edwards Kings]

Originally posted by mdz129:

Ed,



This is a Marathon --just like steering the Titanic--the team which can avoid the icebergs (injuries)and use alot of their fuel (FAAB Money) on the right players will finish ahead of the pack. A great draft is only the beginning of the race -- the pieces you add ( and subtract like I dropped Ryan Braun last year in week 1) make all the difference in your place in God's Baseball Order.



As for your opinions on who surges, fades, or stays status quo -- that is what makes a market -- buyers and sellers -- free agent drops and pickups. I hope you're wrong on Damon, Bay, Werth, Wellemeyer, C Lee, K. Lohse, etc, but time will tell.



I'm 59th overall, with Arod, Tulo, R Martin, Weeks, Tejeda, C. Young(SD), R Hill, Bay, Valerde, Wang for top 10 picks --lots of holes there, but with FAAB picked up C Lee, Wellemayer, Lohse, Danks, Litsch, JJ Reyes, Werth and J Hairston(looked good until broken thumb)--basically my 70% of my pitching staff were wire additions. Hmmmm... I should only draft hitting in the 1st 10 rounds next yr.



Good Luck and let's enjoy the summer.



Michael Please, call me Wayne or "Axxhole" like my mother does!



You, of course, are right about it being a marathon, but I am realistic about my team. I have some BIG holes to climb out of...some counting like Runs and some cumulative that I had better make a move on soon or it will be too late like ERA and Whip.



And I hope I am wrong about the faders, too, as I never want to jinx anyone. Just trying to generate a little conversation.



You are right about the FA too. My luck (or skill) has been limited this year. I have made a couple of sound pick-ups, only to be twarted by MLB managers like with Gaudin and Clement. Some have been stupid (Catalanotto, Pie, Gload, Uribe) and some may help (Millar, Choo, Clement). Right now I am down at least one full time bat (I am in the bottom third of AB in my league) and a closer. If the clouds part and I am able to make up some of that ground with the right people, I can make a run at some league money, but I am looking up at some pretty tough owners, so I need a little luck first and foremost!

[Quahogs]

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

quote:Originally posted by Quahogs:

Wayne,



should have named the header Tales from the Crypt By no means do I mean the team is dead however.



Nice write ! Thanks, Stephen. Your team is awesome especially considering you took Granderson, Weeks, Gallardo, and Hughes (and to a certain extent, Cain) in your first 11 picks. [/QUOTE]Wayne, with picks like those who needs enemies right ? Like Warren says, send smoke, mirrors and luck



Keep swinging! Because you can't walk off the island.

[Edwards Kings]

Buehrle pitches a beauty, 8 IP, 7 H, 1 BB, 6 K, 1 ER and Dotel gives up a walk-off HR to Cabrera to lose the game.



Another reason I am in the middle of the pack.