Tales from the Middle of the Pack
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 7:05 am
OK. I am being generous to myself. The title should read “Tales from Somewhere South of the Middle of the Pack.” Artistic license if you will. It does not change the fact that most of us are not where we want to be in the standings and are wracking our little brains on how to improve our position, figure out who is going to rebound and who to avoid because they have been playing over their head. Anyway, there has not been too much chatter on the boards lately, so I thought I would put a few of my brain burps out there for a few laughs.
By the way…here is a little wish that I hope will come out of the increased exposure for the high stakes leagues. I am so very tired of having to discount what I read from most of the sites for the fact that I cannot trade and the fact that most of the local leagues have full-time offensive players, Number 3 starters, and key set-up men readily available. Even though the Main is a mixed league with only 60% penetration to MLB rosters (actually a little less since many of us have minor leaguers or DL’s on our reserves), any site that uses phrases like “Rookie Jay Bruce may be flying under the radar in your league and might be worth a flyer” is pretty much worthless to me. And many of the sites appear to be at that level. I want to see more content targeted at NFBC style, high stakes competitions. A boy has got to have dreams, doesn’t he?
Anyway, looking at what is right about my team (very few things) and what is wrong with my team (too many things) now we have enough stats to make some analysis meaningful, I first looked back at my offensive (in more ways than one) drafting strategy. I went into the draft trying to get a well balanced team focusing on outfield. I thought the OF this year was as thin as I can remember. I also wanted an anchor at middle and corner while targeting some of my middle round picks on upside picks.
What worked? I fooled myself into picking Utley with the seventh pick overall leaving guys like Cabrera, Santana, and Crawford to be snapped up later. Let’s put a big check mark here as Utley sure has exceeded expectations. One caveat though. I was at the Ted Sunday, June 8th, and to me, Utley looked tired. It was 100+ degrees I think on the field, so anyone would wilt, but he almost had two errors on easy ground balls and just looked sluggish. I hope Charlie Manuel gives him some days off as you know he will not get a break at All-Star time. If not, look for a “slump”. Likewise, my other MI picks have been good especially where I got them. Orlando Hudson (15th round) and Yuniesky Betancourt (21st and I was the next to the last player to pick a SS in my league). Both are down on my speed projections and Betancourt has not shown even the modest power I had hoped for, but neither is more than one hot week from making up the delta. BA and the other counting stats are at or better than expected. As with everything else, barring injuries, I see my MI exceeding expectations, mainly due to Utley’s MVP year. I do expect Utley to fade a bit, but see Hudson and Betancourt as surgers and at least one will move past the likely faders like Uggla, Tejada, Young, DeRosa, Theriot, Weeks, Guzman, and Escobar in the positional rankings.
I am not too unhappy with CM either. I got my anchor in steady Aramis Ramirez with the seventh pick of the third round, which is about where you would expect him to go. Still just 29 years old, he is the kind of player you just pencil in and let go. His average and counting stats (he even stole a base) is fine. Power is down, but again, one hot week and you are back on track. I got Conor Jackson in the 13th and I like this pick. Even with the missed time, he is at or better in all counting stats to my projections and his BA is sweet so far. Which is good as I burned my 11th round pick on Blalock. Even before he got hurt, he was providing little more than BA. I really drank the contract year Kool-Aide on this one. If he can come back from his carpal tunnel, bad hammie, anal fissure, strained quad, club foot, dandruff, and chronic halitosis and give me three months of what he was able to do last September, this could still be a plus. Big if. Until last weeks 0-16, Mike Lamb was an OK replacement. Now I have Millar keeping the position warm, so hopefully I will not lose too much ground in the CM projections until AmRam gets hot and Blalock gets healthy (it COULD happen!). Actually, when Chipper gets hurt, Reynolds, Youkilis, Crede, DeRosa, and Cantu fade (and they will) I should end up with two top 15 CM (AmRam and Jackson), not counting what I hope is a hot finish by Blalock.
What didn’t work? My OF reeks and it may be a case of “I’ve fallen and I can’t get up!” I used some primo picks for most of my OFers like Vlad Guerrero (2nd round), Bobby Abreu (4th), Brad Hawpe (7th) and Jermaine Dye (8th). Three veterans who I thought were not too old to produce quality stats and one up-and-comer. No speed to speak of except for Abreu, but lots of BA and other counting stats potential. People have been on Abreu because he is down in is SB category, but it hasn’t impacted me because I am trying to take full advantage of the fact you cannot get less than one point from SB. His runs are down (not necessarily his fault), but his power (HR and RBI) are up from where I projected him to be and his BA is nearly spot on. Dye likewise is about a wash. He still strikes out too much, but if he proves to be a 2H player like last year, he will easily make up ground as right now I have him under my run-rate projections for HR and RBI, but not by too much. That is the best news I have on the OF and that is not good news. I need these guys to exceed expectations so I can make up some the points I am not getting in SB. Guerrero is playing like he has been hurt more than has been broadcast lately. His stats are down across the board radically especially in BA. This decline should not be age related, though you never know with players from the DR. It scares me that he is hitting so poorly at home which was not the case 2005 – 2007. The team is winning without him, so that is good for them, not good for me. He COULD turn his year around, but I do not think I like the odds. Hawpe has been horrible. He is digging the biggest hole my team has to crawl out of this year. I was counting on him for 30+ HR and 100+ RBI with a solid .280+ BA. Needless to say he is well off those marks. He also was a 2H player last year (which also was a small part of my draft strategy since I have faded badly every September), but I may have gone to that well too much. My fifth outfielder I drafted mainly to give me support in Runs Scored with good BA. David DeJesus is feeling KC’s inability to score as much as anyone, but his HR numbers are up, he should hit double digits in SB, and is not too far off in RBI projections. So goes KC, so goes DeJesus, but I do not think he is a good candidate for 100 runs anymore, especially given that he missed so many games early. Still, not too bad for a 19th round pick. In short, I am disappointed in my OF as a whole right now. But I am stuck with them as my friends (let’s call them the “Minnows”) have pretty much picked the FA pool clean. In case you didn’t notice, Shin-Soo Choo (God Bless You!) was picked up in at least six main event teams this last week including me. Not much of an investment for me at $1, but I wish CLE would let this kid play because I think he can. He will never hit 30 in the majors, but he could help in all categories.
I hope I do not have any OF faders as in most cases, in order to fade any more than they already have, they would have to start digging. I do think we have seen the best of the likes of Ludwick, Damon, Nady, Drew, Werth, and Bay, but Hamilton, Ellsbury, and McLouth are re-writing the OF rankings legitimately.
What else didn’t work? I have Ramon Hernandez (16th) and Kenji Johima (10th) at catcher. I wasn’t looking for much here at this position, but thought I had drafted a couple who would get me 10-15 HR, bat .275, have 60+ Runs and 60+ RBIs each. Both are down on my projections across the board and Hernandez may be losing AB’s. Not much out there in FA land that have as much upside, so I am hoping for a Shandleresque regression to the mean. As bad as the catcher position has been this year for most of us (kudos to you Soto/Benjie Molina owners out there), I think it is only going to get worse. There are some OLD catchers out there who are fading fast and I do not see many teams rushing to replace them.
Once again I have failed to get a solid UT player. I did think I had found one in the 24th round. Let’s see…look for a guy with good underlying skills against at least RHers. Check. Look for a guy who has been blocked at his position by a high priced veteran. Check. Look for a guy hitting in a hitters park. Check. If that ballpark is Arlington, make sure he is left-handed. Check. Make sure he is not too old. 31. Check. If he is coming off a bad year that looks like an outlier, so much the better. Check. Meet Ben Broussard. Or should that be Hasbeen Broussard. Make sure you drop him after 54 AB’s of BA below .170. Check. I have run a host of poor choices through my UT spot this year, including my only “SB Threat” Ryan Freel who I had in for 41 AB with no SB. I hope that when Blalock comes back, I can put Millar there. I am actually hoping that. Isn’t that sad. I have Choo (if Guerrero and Hawpe rebound) and Clement who would fit there if they play, and except for BA, I haven’t dug too much of a hole yet as my projections for this roster spot were very modest.
It is clear I missed the boat on SB, but I had hoped to still get mid-50’s in batting points. I am not even close with 37.5 points and the hole I have dug in Runs Scored may be too deep to climb out of, but I am still trying. Time will tell.
Just my ramblings. Hope it gives you a minute or two of distraction. I’ll do my pitchers later.
[ June 10, 2008, 01:07 PM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]
By the way…here is a little wish that I hope will come out of the increased exposure for the high stakes leagues. I am so very tired of having to discount what I read from most of the sites for the fact that I cannot trade and the fact that most of the local leagues have full-time offensive players, Number 3 starters, and key set-up men readily available. Even though the Main is a mixed league with only 60% penetration to MLB rosters (actually a little less since many of us have minor leaguers or DL’s on our reserves), any site that uses phrases like “Rookie Jay Bruce may be flying under the radar in your league and might be worth a flyer” is pretty much worthless to me. And many of the sites appear to be at that level. I want to see more content targeted at NFBC style, high stakes competitions. A boy has got to have dreams, doesn’t he?
Anyway, looking at what is right about my team (very few things) and what is wrong with my team (too many things) now we have enough stats to make some analysis meaningful, I first looked back at my offensive (in more ways than one) drafting strategy. I went into the draft trying to get a well balanced team focusing on outfield. I thought the OF this year was as thin as I can remember. I also wanted an anchor at middle and corner while targeting some of my middle round picks on upside picks.
What worked? I fooled myself into picking Utley with the seventh pick overall leaving guys like Cabrera, Santana, and Crawford to be snapped up later. Let’s put a big check mark here as Utley sure has exceeded expectations. One caveat though. I was at the Ted Sunday, June 8th, and to me, Utley looked tired. It was 100+ degrees I think on the field, so anyone would wilt, but he almost had two errors on easy ground balls and just looked sluggish. I hope Charlie Manuel gives him some days off as you know he will not get a break at All-Star time. If not, look for a “slump”. Likewise, my other MI picks have been good especially where I got them. Orlando Hudson (15th round) and Yuniesky Betancourt (21st and I was the next to the last player to pick a SS in my league). Both are down on my speed projections and Betancourt has not shown even the modest power I had hoped for, but neither is more than one hot week from making up the delta. BA and the other counting stats are at or better than expected. As with everything else, barring injuries, I see my MI exceeding expectations, mainly due to Utley’s MVP year. I do expect Utley to fade a bit, but see Hudson and Betancourt as surgers and at least one will move past the likely faders like Uggla, Tejada, Young, DeRosa, Theriot, Weeks, Guzman, and Escobar in the positional rankings.
I am not too unhappy with CM either. I got my anchor in steady Aramis Ramirez with the seventh pick of the third round, which is about where you would expect him to go. Still just 29 years old, he is the kind of player you just pencil in and let go. His average and counting stats (he even stole a base) is fine. Power is down, but again, one hot week and you are back on track. I got Conor Jackson in the 13th and I like this pick. Even with the missed time, he is at or better in all counting stats to my projections and his BA is sweet so far. Which is good as I burned my 11th round pick on Blalock. Even before he got hurt, he was providing little more than BA. I really drank the contract year Kool-Aide on this one. If he can come back from his carpal tunnel, bad hammie, anal fissure, strained quad, club foot, dandruff, and chronic halitosis and give me three months of what he was able to do last September, this could still be a plus. Big if. Until last weeks 0-16, Mike Lamb was an OK replacement. Now I have Millar keeping the position warm, so hopefully I will not lose too much ground in the CM projections until AmRam gets hot and Blalock gets healthy (it COULD happen!). Actually, when Chipper gets hurt, Reynolds, Youkilis, Crede, DeRosa, and Cantu fade (and they will) I should end up with two top 15 CM (AmRam and Jackson), not counting what I hope is a hot finish by Blalock.
What didn’t work? My OF reeks and it may be a case of “I’ve fallen and I can’t get up!” I used some primo picks for most of my OFers like Vlad Guerrero (2nd round), Bobby Abreu (4th), Brad Hawpe (7th) and Jermaine Dye (8th). Three veterans who I thought were not too old to produce quality stats and one up-and-comer. No speed to speak of except for Abreu, but lots of BA and other counting stats potential. People have been on Abreu because he is down in is SB category, but it hasn’t impacted me because I am trying to take full advantage of the fact you cannot get less than one point from SB. His runs are down (not necessarily his fault), but his power (HR and RBI) are up from where I projected him to be and his BA is nearly spot on. Dye likewise is about a wash. He still strikes out too much, but if he proves to be a 2H player like last year, he will easily make up ground as right now I have him under my run-rate projections for HR and RBI, but not by too much. That is the best news I have on the OF and that is not good news. I need these guys to exceed expectations so I can make up some the points I am not getting in SB. Guerrero is playing like he has been hurt more than has been broadcast lately. His stats are down across the board radically especially in BA. This decline should not be age related, though you never know with players from the DR. It scares me that he is hitting so poorly at home which was not the case 2005 – 2007. The team is winning without him, so that is good for them, not good for me. He COULD turn his year around, but I do not think I like the odds. Hawpe has been horrible. He is digging the biggest hole my team has to crawl out of this year. I was counting on him for 30+ HR and 100+ RBI with a solid .280+ BA. Needless to say he is well off those marks. He also was a 2H player last year (which also was a small part of my draft strategy since I have faded badly every September), but I may have gone to that well too much. My fifth outfielder I drafted mainly to give me support in Runs Scored with good BA. David DeJesus is feeling KC’s inability to score as much as anyone, but his HR numbers are up, he should hit double digits in SB, and is not too far off in RBI projections. So goes KC, so goes DeJesus, but I do not think he is a good candidate for 100 runs anymore, especially given that he missed so many games early. Still, not too bad for a 19th round pick. In short, I am disappointed in my OF as a whole right now. But I am stuck with them as my friends (let’s call them the “Minnows”) have pretty much picked the FA pool clean. In case you didn’t notice, Shin-Soo Choo (God Bless You!) was picked up in at least six main event teams this last week including me. Not much of an investment for me at $1, but I wish CLE would let this kid play because I think he can. He will never hit 30 in the majors, but he could help in all categories.
I hope I do not have any OF faders as in most cases, in order to fade any more than they already have, they would have to start digging. I do think we have seen the best of the likes of Ludwick, Damon, Nady, Drew, Werth, and Bay, but Hamilton, Ellsbury, and McLouth are re-writing the OF rankings legitimately.
What else didn’t work? I have Ramon Hernandez (16th) and Kenji Johima (10th) at catcher. I wasn’t looking for much here at this position, but thought I had drafted a couple who would get me 10-15 HR, bat .275, have 60+ Runs and 60+ RBIs each. Both are down on my projections across the board and Hernandez may be losing AB’s. Not much out there in FA land that have as much upside, so I am hoping for a Shandleresque regression to the mean. As bad as the catcher position has been this year for most of us (kudos to you Soto/Benjie Molina owners out there), I think it is only going to get worse. There are some OLD catchers out there who are fading fast and I do not see many teams rushing to replace them.
Once again I have failed to get a solid UT player. I did think I had found one in the 24th round. Let’s see…look for a guy with good underlying skills against at least RHers. Check. Look for a guy who has been blocked at his position by a high priced veteran. Check. Look for a guy hitting in a hitters park. Check. If that ballpark is Arlington, make sure he is left-handed. Check. Make sure he is not too old. 31. Check. If he is coming off a bad year that looks like an outlier, so much the better. Check. Meet Ben Broussard. Or should that be Hasbeen Broussard. Make sure you drop him after 54 AB’s of BA below .170. Check. I have run a host of poor choices through my UT spot this year, including my only “SB Threat” Ryan Freel who I had in for 41 AB with no SB. I hope that when Blalock comes back, I can put Millar there. I am actually hoping that. Isn’t that sad. I have Choo (if Guerrero and Hawpe rebound) and Clement who would fit there if they play, and except for BA, I haven’t dug too much of a hole yet as my projections for this roster spot were very modest.
It is clear I missed the boat on SB, but I had hoped to still get mid-50’s in batting points. I am not even close with 37.5 points and the hole I have dug in Runs Scored may be too deep to climb out of, but I am still trying. Time will tell.
Just my ramblings. Hope it gives you a minute or two of distraction. I’ll do my pitchers later.
[ June 10, 2008, 01:07 PM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]
By no means do I mean the team is dead however. 